BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 04 May 19 - 01:36 PM

The Brexit Party continues to lead in the latest YouGov/Times European Parliament voting intention poll. Nigel Farage's new party holds 30% of the vote, having been on 28% in last week's survey. Labour find themselves with 21% of the vote (from 22%) while the Conservatives remain on just 13%.

Try looking forwards instead of backwards. These must be very confusing times for the left! Where to turn eh?

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 04 May 19 - 02:39 PM

Generally mid term local council elections have tended to fsvour the opposition party. On this basis Labour would have had a reasonable expectation of hoovering up the 400 seats they anticipated winning. Instead they lost 87 seats and set a new record. It is not just the Tories received a justly deserved shellacking at the hustings but also Labour. UKIP very rightly lost wholesale. This is no surprise with Tommy Robinson on the ticket. This clearly demonstrates the projected split vote between UKIP and the Brexit party is no longer an issue. UKIP is toast.

This surely must be the end of Tereason May. The MEP elections ahould prove highl entertaining and the next general election will have most of Westminster clutching their P45's.

The stunning local council elections demonstrate very well that people did know what they were voting for in the referendum.and the hustings
have further driven the point home is an exceedingly painful manner for both parties. Lie to the electorate and the electorate will take it's pound of flesh.
Revenge is a dish best served cold.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: David Carter (UK)
Date: 04 May 19 - 05:41 PM

Had it been a general election a party which did not field any candidates would form the government? Bizarre. As you know, and as has been explained, had it been a general election Labour would have formed a government with Lib Dem, SNP and Plaid support.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: DMcG
Date: 05 May 19 - 02:03 AM

There is very little that is clear as a result of the local elections but I feel that Labour's approach of trying to paint everything as a Tory Brexit has failed. The poor Labour results say Labour is definitely being blamed as well. I think everyone in Labour's high command recognised coming out strongly pro-Brexit would lose a lot of votes, as would coming out strongly anti-Brexit. They thought then staying ambiguous would keep most on side especially if they could focus on what happens after Brexit.

To me, the results show you lose voters on all the paths and if you wish to stay ambiguous you can, but do so in the knowledge it could be even worse in terms of votes that either of the alternatives. People expect a party to decide what it wants and then to argue for it. Ambiguity costs.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 05 May 19 - 02:42 AM

As you know, and as has been explained, had it been a general election Labour would have formed a government with Lib Dem, SNP and Plaid support.

I do admire confidence, but when misplaced one must expect disappointment.

Let me give you John McDonnell as an example. He predicted Labour would GAIN 400 seats BEFORE crushing defeat and a loss of nearly 90 seats.


There is a difference between optimism, wishful thinking and sheer delusion. I leave you to tick the appropriate box.
If Corbyn thought he had any kind of support he would have called for a no confidence vote months ago.

As the illustrious Maggie would have said: "He was frit!"

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 05 May 19 - 03:16 AM

Maggie and Tommy - there's a match made in hell
Anybody who thinks Thatcher didn't take Britain to the brink of being an extremist right-wing state is living in their own head
Lord Snooty and Boris the Braindead stands to do the same now, with the chaos that Brexit has created
If Corbyn is to live up to his promises he needs to focus his attention on the wider picture and ditch the Labour Tories in his ranks - he certainly has the rank-and-file support to do so and I have little doubt that the British People have become so appalled at the Brexit Circus - they'd be insane not to

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-poll/britons-would-now-vote-to-stay-in-eu-want-second-referendum-poll-idUSKCN1P006O

Jim Carroll

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 05 May 19 - 03:16 AM

Maggie and Tommy - there's a match made in hell
Anybody who thinks Thatcher didn't take Britain to the brink of being an extremist right-wing state is living in their own head
Lord Snooty and Boris the Braindead stands to do the same now, with the chaos that Brexit has created
If Corbyn is to live up to his promises he needs to focus his attention on the wider picture and ditch the Labour Tories in his ranks - he certainly has the rank-and-file support to do so and I have little doubt that the British People have become so appalled at the Brexit Circus - they'd be insane not to

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-poll/britons-would-now-vote-to-stay-in-eu-want-second-referendum-poll-idUSKCN1P006O

Jim Carroll

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: DMcG
Date: 05 May 19 - 04:07 AM

From Jim's link:

The survey by polling firm YouGov showed that if a referendum were held immediately, 46 percent would vote to remain, 39 percent would vote to leave, and the rest either did not know, would not vote, or refused to answer the question.

When the undecided and those who refused to answer were removed from the sample, the split was 54-46 in favor of remaining.
That is broadly in line with other polls in recent months which show a deeply divided electorate, in which opinion has swung towards remaining in the EU. The 2016 referendum voted 52 to 48 percent in favor of leaving.

So a YouGov poll showing a majority in favour of remain, this time. Unlike the YouGov polls showing such strength for the Brexit Party a day or two earlier.

This suggests there may well be something wrong with YouGov's methodology in conducting polls that deliver apparently conflicting answers. In particular, the public may be extremely sensitive to precisely how the question is phrased, and this is not being adequately taken account when preparing the poll questionaire.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 05 May 19 - 04:33 AM

Out of interest, I am on the YouGov list. I regularly submit poll responses but, to date, have not been asked about anything to do with brexit.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 05 May 19 - 04:49 AM

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Jim Carroll - PM
Date: 05 May 19 - 03:16 AM

ABUSE 10/10
CONSTRUCTIVE ARGUMENT 0/10

How very predictable!

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 05 May 19 - 05:18 AM

There is always a problem with polls when the electorate is closely split. The results vary day by day and by their nature are inherently inaccurate. They generally consist of a small sample and the results are massaged in ways thought to be representative of the views of the majority. No one has the courage to define the error bar but I would suspect it could be around the 10% mark. Therefore all the polls are suspect.

The tories anticipated the loss of 500 seats
Labour anticipated a gain of 400 seats.

The reality was -1300 and -80 respectively and a massive vote of no confidence by the electorate for both parties.

The acid test will be the EU elections but I suspect a stitchup is in the offing between May and Corbyn to sell us out and prevent the forthcoming election.
The result will be neither fish nor foul!

It will be a enduring treaty creating more shackles and chains and loss of all seats at the top table. That is a result far far worse than simply remaining in the EU.

If polls were in any way accurate I would welcome an explanation as to why both parties received such a massive drubbing in the recent council elections. It simply does not compute!

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 05 May 19 - 05:26 AM

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/camcalc_20170428_pollerror.html

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: David Carter (UK)
Date: 05 May 19 - 08:47 AM

Neither May nor Corbyn will carry their parties if they try to deny us this democratic opportunity. I think that you and I would both demand that the elections take place, whilst hoping for radically different outcomes from them.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: DMcG
Date: 05 May 19 - 09:34 AM

There are predictions that the EU vote will be conclusive. I suspect it will also be all things to all men. For example, one possible result would be

- Brexit Party the largest single party
- substantially more votes for remain parties in aggregate.
- because of the way the proportionality works, more or less the same number of MEPs for each viewpoint.

And if the meaning of that would be clear to you, I am afraid it would not be to me.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 05 May 19 - 02:08 PM

It is very clear that the recent council elections enabled the electorate to register their annoyance with the two main parties by causing both to lose a staggering number of seats. Another fact to take away from this is that the opposition party also registered severe losses instead of the gains to be expected from mid term elections.

If the MEP elections occur it is by no means certain how the protest will be registered. There will be a Brexit party standing and they are way ahead in the polls. The big unknown is to what extent the protest vote and Brexit popularity will translate into seats. I see no way of making a safe(accurate) prediction. It is also very difficult to be certain how much positions have changed since the referendum, if at all.
The changes in percentages from poll to poll are all within the error bar so trying to make any kind of reasonable prediction is a bit of a non starter.
I thunk it will have to be simply a wait and see exercise until the votes are counted. I hope brexit will wipe the board but this is by no means a certainty.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: David Carter (UK)
Date: 05 May 19 - 02:11 PM

DMcG, it would be clear to me. If there was more vote for remain parties, then remain we should. We can see off the Brexit party, their powerbase is a diminishing demographic.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 05 May 19 - 02:39 PM

But of course to counter the fallacious argument above, of the largest demographic only a third are registered to vote. Apathy does not win or lose elections, it simply does not register!

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: DMcG
Date: 05 May 19 - 03:19 PM

That is certainly a rational view, David C. But we both know the press and others would be shouting "The Brexit Paery won and are being disrespected!"

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 05 May 19 - 07:50 PM

Allow me a moment of whimsy. We need an anti-brexit anthem and I think Pete Seeger had it in spades (for "big fool", read "brainless brexiteer")*:

Maybe you're still walking, you're still talking,
You'd like to keep your health.
But every time I read the papers, that old feeling comes on,
We're waist deep in the Big Muddy
And the big fool says to push on.

Waist deep in the Big Muddy,
The big fool says to push on.
Waist deep in the Big Muddy,
The big fool says to push on.
Waist deep, neck deep,
Soon even a tall man will be over his head.
We're waist deep in the Big Muddy,
And the big fool says to push on.

*...Or Theresa May if you like...

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 06 May 19 - 03:32 AM

"YouGov " is a survey company set u[ by Tory Politicians - their findings in favour iif right-wing policies have been called into question on several occasions
Immaterial anyway, on something as basic as leaving the E.U., if there is th slightest doubt as to the present divide on the issue, it needs to be put to the people again
May's pathetic "further divide the country" is blatantly stupid - the people are sharply divided, as are the Government and the administrative Institutions
The cynical distrust of the Parliamentary system will be a running sore for years to come - such situations open the door to mob-rule Populism and extremist scapegoating - as was the Brexit decision in the first place
Jim Carroll

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 06 May 19 - 03:47 AM

"YouGov " is a survey company set u[ by Tory Politicians - their findings in favour iif right-wing policies have been called into question on several occasions.

I repeat what I said earlier:(for those with the attention span of a gnat)
Below a serious discussion of weighting before we have the usual contemptuous dismissal of yougov by the usual.

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/faq-weighting

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 06 May 19 - 03:53 AM

Says it all really!


https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/f48f9073ea26838ed8257b556938c1cfbedaf26a4a8269e1e6e9647ee3bbfd2c.jpg

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: David Carter (UK)
Date: 06 May 19 - 04:56 AM

And that sums up the problem with our politics, compared to the more grown up democracies of mainstream Europe, that a party can get 30% of the vote and claim they won, despite the other 70% holding a diametrically opposing view. They won't have won of course, firstly because it is a Europe wide election, and secondly because the electoral method is either D'Hondt or STV depending upon where you are, and not the primitive first past the post system used for Westminster.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: DMcG
Date: 06 May 19 - 05:36 AM

not the primitive first past the post system used for Westminster.

I need no convincing of that. I was an early member of Charter 88 which amongst other things wanted a proportional voting system. Of course, when we had the AV referendum, the campaigns were a similar mass of falsehoods and ineptitude we have seen since.

Had we had STV, for example, it would have been quite straightforward for let us say the Conservatives to have two candidates in a ward, one pro-EU and one for leaving the EU. In a conservative dominated area a conservative one would still win, and it would be the one which best reflected the pro/anti view.

And that means we could have had - if it was what the country wanted - an anti-EU decision, where the majority of the MPs were of a similar view, and no need for a special referendum or the subsequent division of the country. Alternatively, the same ward could keep a Tory but vote out anti-Brexit views, if that was its opinion. All settled fairly amicably just by using a grown up voting system.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 06 May 19 - 05:42 AM

"I repeat what I said earlier:(for those with the attention span of a gnat)"
You've been warned about your abusive behaviour - and suspended for it before now
If you don't want it to happen again learn to control yourself
Jim Carroll

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 06 May 19 - 05:55 AM

Matthew 7:5

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: peteglasgow
Date: 06 May 19 - 06:24 AM

who did matthew beat 7-5? a turnip maybe?

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 06 May 19 - 06:31 AM

Matthews scored his 18th and final goal for Blackpool in a 4–1 league victory over Tottenham Hotspur

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 06 May 19 - 06:44 AM

Haven't solved it yet, Pete. It would have been Matthew 0-7 Liverpool or Matthew 7-0 Partick...or maybe I'm just being as thick as two short motes this morning...

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 06 May 19 - 07:12 AM

"I'm just being as thick as two short motes this morning..."
Anybody who doesn;t bow down to Iain's pronouncements, (which come down directly from St Guido) is judged to have "the attention span of a gnat" - which is just about everybody here
Jim

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: DMcG
Date: 06 May 19 - 07:59 AM

I can't help feeling gnats are being slighted. I am not sure how you would measure it in the first place, but since the purpose of attention is surely to check if you can eat something or are about to be eaten, I suspect as a proportion of its lifetime a gnat probably spends a lot of time 'paying attention'

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 06 May 19 - 08:22 AM

DMcG I an sure the gnats will get over it unlike those here that make a meal of playing at being a victim. Both the gnats and I find that unpalatable.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 06 May 19 - 11:22 AM

You're within a gnat's cock of the truth there, DMcG...

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 06 May 19 - 02:02 PM

Anyway back to matters appertaining to Brexit:

Annunziata Rees-Mogg, a former Tory parliamentary candidate and sister of Jacob Rees-Mogg, hasn’t been far from the headlines since she appeared at the launch of the Brexit Party. Ms Rees-Mogg is now planning on fighting for the Peterborough seat vacated by Labour MP Fiona Onasanya. Ms Onasanya became the first parliamentarian in British history to be booted out of the Commons and stripped of her seat by a recall petition. The MP was jailed for lying to police about a driving offence.

The outcome of this election will give the pointy heads much to ruminate on.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 06 May 19 - 02:26 PM

Which has nothing to do with brexit.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 06 May 19 - 03:07 PM

A by election and a prospective parliamentary candidate for The Brexit party has nothing to do with Brexit?

What a quaint notion!

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Raggytash
Date: 06 May 19 - 03:11 PM

I'm a tad surprised that people have let pass the utter nonsense that has been posted on here regarding the results in the local elections.

How anyone can equate the Labour loss of 84 councillors,which is disappointing, to the catastrophic loss of 1330 Conservative councillors is amazing if only for the audacity.

Then to ignore the fact that UKip lost 145 of it's tiny 176 seats smacks of not only wearing blinkers but a eye patch and a blindfold as well.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 06 May 19 - 03:37 PM

From: Raggytash - PM
Date: 06 May 19 - 03:11 PM ...........
From your post it is obvious that trying to explain it all to you would be a wasted effort. Therefore I will not bother.

What you call nonsense is an interpretation repeated by pundits everywhere. The explanations are unassailable, hence no arguments
(apart from sparky, but he would argue with his own shadow)

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Raggytash
Date: 06 May 19 - 03:45 PM

Refer to my post of 03.11

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: DMcG
Date: 07 May 19 - 02:59 AM

For my part, Raggy, I don't think it is sensible to regard the results for the two main parties comparable in a straightforward way, but they do have one core similarity: each is substantially worse than even pessimistic estimates beforehand. That does challenge each party to decide what to do about it. But the results do not make clear what that should be. It is a strong echo of the referendum where the majority of those who voted said 'Leave' without defining what that meant. This time they have said 'You can't carry on like this" while giving no clear message what should be done. A lot of leavers think the results show we must leave now, a lot of remainers think it means a confirmatory vote is essential. And most politicians just feel reinforced in whatever their opinion was already.

As I said below, my guess is that the EU elections will be the same.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: DMcG
Date: 07 May 19 - 03:54 AM

Nigil Fargae under fire for alleged antisemitic tropes on far right US talk show

I hope those who condemn Labour continually for antisemitism will take as hard a line with Farage. Since they always reject defences like the phrase taken out of context, or used with a specific intent rather than Wider possible interpretations, I assume they will not attempt to excuse him that way.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 07 May 19 - 04:49 AM

In the six identified interviews, which date from 2009 to last year, Farage, whose Brexit party is leading polls for the upcoming European elections, repeatedly uses words and phrases such as “globalists” and “new world order”, which regularly feature in antisemitic ideas.

I think the Guardian will have to do better than the above. The mud slides off effortlessly.

The Dandy and Beano could have done a better job. Words like "the", "this" and "that" regularly feature in antisemitic ideas as well.

What utter nonsense!

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: DMcG
Date: 07 May 19 - 05:03 AM

In that article:

A spokesman for the Board of Deputies of British Jews said: "It is vital that our politicians distance themselves from conspiracy theories and conspiracy theorists, including those who trade in antisemitic tropes. We would call on Nigel Farage to repudiate these ideas and to commit not to dignify oddball nasties like Alex Jones with his presence again."

====
You may dismiss it. They don't.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 07 May 19 - 05:38 AM

I think the spokesman for the Board of Deputies of British Jews is stepping well outside his remit to try to dictate what media a politician can be allowed on. He is stepping down a very dangerous authoritarian road and attempting to restrict freedom of speech.
I think he needs to offer a grovelling apology before he does his cause irreparable damage.
I suspect this issue will take wings.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: David Carter (UK)
Date: 07 May 19 - 06:22 AM

So you firmly support George Galloway's right to appear on Press TV?

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 07 May 19 - 07:43 AM

Funny old world init? I wonder what the comments on here would have been if Corbyn had said those things instead of the nicotine stained toad. Still, it all goes to divert us from the shit that the Tories have dropped us in.

Anyone found any good forecasts about brexit yet?

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: DMcG
Date: 07 May 19 - 07:55 AM

Yes, I agree we should not let this divert us from core Brexit issues. There is likely to be some sort of announcement/meaningless-verbiage today about the meeting between the Tories and Labour. I expect no progress with an attempt to blame Labour.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 07 May 19 - 08:04 AM

"the nicotine stained toad."
How pathetic!

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: peteglasgow
Date: 07 May 19 - 09:47 AM

indeed! 'nicotine-stained man frog' has a much better tone. as does (who the f..k would support that) annoying wee spiv?

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: peteglasgow
Date: 07 May 19 - 12:38 PM

there's a very good article by john crace today about the annoying wee spiv. apologies again - does anyone have the technilogical know how to put the article on here. could be an interesting discussion piece - if the whole thing wasn't so depressing