BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 13 Feb 19 - 01:48 PM

Yeah Steve, but don't forget - "No gain without pain", and "It's a price worth paying". :-(

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 13 Feb 19 - 01:52 PM

Better out than in!

The news from Guido before the BBC spins it into oblivion.


https://order-order.com/2019/02/13/eurozone-industrial-production-plunges-even-faster-expected/

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: DMcG
Date: 14 Feb 19 - 02:14 AM

A little while ago I asked Nigel in particular but indirectly all our Brexit supporters whether they were willing that their nearest and dearest suffer any disadvantages that may arise - I take it as read they are prepared to suffer any such thing themselves.

We have a case in point here. Imagine such a job loss affects your son, daughter or those of a close friend. They are worried about how they will pay their mortgage and whether if they don't find a job soon they could even lose their home. They come to you full of fear and trepidation.

Do you really cheerily say "No gain without pain"?

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 14 Feb 19 - 06:29 AM

James O'Brien's proposals for Brexit. The popular LBC presenter has some proposals that should be popular with everyone...


Proposals for a Germany+ agreement with the EU has garnered widespread support on social media after the proposal was put forward by LBC presenter James O’Brien.

The Brexit policy, which would be popular with both Leavers and Remainers and could even pass through Parliament, would give Britain the same deal that Germany has but with added benefits.

Britain would keep control of its borders by opting out of the Schengen agreement on free movement.

That means we could send people from other countries home if they couldn’t support themselves.

We would also stay out of the single currency, have the power of veto on matter such as Turkish ascension to the EU and vote on how our government spends our money.

It would also mean we have lots of fresh food and medicines arriving unchecked into our country under some of the biggest trade agreements on the planet, with a one-third reduction in the fee we pay for all of these things.

And best of all – we could vote on our own laws, with a court to make sure that British people and businesses are fairly treated.

As O’Brien notes: “That’s called Germany+.

“It’s also called being in the European Union.”

:D

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 14 Feb 19 - 06:50 AM

There is now a constant stream of complaints from both the Northern Counties and the Republic, of the effects Brexit is now having on the Irish economy and loss of investment and jobs, the latest being from the transport industry and it hasn't been put into place yet!
The Little Englanders can hardly claim it to be an 'Irish Problem' - without D.U.P. support May would be looking for a job in the hospitality industry (except that's likely to take a HEFTY KICKING as well if things continue as they are)
Jim Carroll

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 14 Feb 19 - 06:58 AM

"As O’Brien notes: “That’s called Germany+.

“It’s also called being in the European Union."

And it's precisely what we currently have, and what a bunch of bone-head, flag-waving dick-wads have voted to throw away on 29/3/19.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 14 Feb 19 - 07:45 AM

For good news on Brexit, google this:

https://costofbrexit.netlify.com

Brexit since the referendum has cost us between £440 million and £500 million a week. So far, anything between 60 and 80 billion in total. I need a red bus and a pot of paint...

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 14 Feb 19 - 01:36 PM

Now they've upset the Liverpudlians - bang goes the United Kingdom!!
Jim

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Raggytash
Date: 14 Feb 19 - 04:11 PM

Question for both sides.

Just how many defeats in the House of Commons does Teresa May have to suffer before she (and her advisers) understand that her proposals are not acceptable.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 14 Feb 19 - 05:00 PM

She'll keep going until the small group of billionaires and multi-millionaires who are giving her her orders tell her to do something else. They want a no-deal BrexShit in order to avoid the new EU Anti-Tax-Avoidance regulations, and she will make sure they get what they want, no matter how much the rest of us suffer as a result.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: DMcG
Date: 15 Feb 19 - 07:54 AM

Apparently "one ERG source said the group was unconcerned about [the release of no-deal analyses] because the public paid no attention to "project fear" at the referendum."

That seems an unwise way of looking at things. He or she may be right in the event of a second referendum. But it will be a very different thing if one or more of the warnings turn out to be correct and those suffering the consequences know the MPs were told beforehand but chose to let it happen.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 15 Feb 19 - 08:50 AM

https://order-order.com/2019/02/15/eu-investors-considering-moves-uk-brexit/

Well, well, well!
I do not think the EU scripted that! Brought by Guido of course.

and for the infidels the original can be read in the Financial Times!

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Mossback
Date: 15 Feb 19 - 01:22 PM

Help out a Yank here please: is Rachel Johnson trying to sat Brex-Shit has gone tits up?

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 15 Feb 19 - 01:30 PM

LOL!

Maybe she was trying to make a couple of points...

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Neil D
Date: 16 Feb 19 - 01:49 AM

I just read an article that said a No-deal Brexit could lead to a unified Ireland. The premise was that NI would better off economically as part of the Republic than as part of the UK after Brexit. With the last census showing that the Catholic population rapidly gaining on the Protestant population which is aging, it is only a matter of time before the Northern Irish will opt out of the UK.
Could this be possible?

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: DMcG
Date: 16 Feb 19 - 03:42 AM

I think the position of Northern Ireland after Brexit will probably be a factor in any eventual reunification, but I don't think there will be a "cause and effect." What is true is that had reunification been proposed and agreed over the last two years the whole backstop question would not have arisen.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: peteglasgow
Date: 16 Feb 19 - 03:59 AM

once wales has made its mind up whether it wants to be little little england when England goes for independence or to join Scotland and newly unified Ireland (and Cumbria) in a Celtic Union in the EU, then we are just about sorted. Remains of England can continue to send all the money down to london for HS2, trident, a new Shouty House for the weirdo brexiteer government and maybe a garden bridge and a mr blobby theme park on the grass outside for all the yellow jackets and IDS to play with.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 16 Feb 19 - 04:05 AM

Hey Pete! If Cumbria is going for independence I want to see the reintroducion of the old kingdom of Northumbria so we can go too!

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 16 Feb 19 - 04:22 AM

Talking of reunification is all well and good, but does the republic want to pick up the tab? Lefty dreams have a very tangible cost.
£10 billion a year is one figure quoted.


Reality Check

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 16 Feb 19 - 04:24 AM

Well I live near Bude in Cornwall, a town very close to the border with England. I want a backstop and I want it NOW. Bloody Devonians coming here, taking our jobs and shagging our wives...

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: DMcG
Date: 16 Feb 19 - 05:02 AM

So you do accept forecasts when they suit, then.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: peteglasgow
Date: 16 Feb 19 - 06:37 AM

there is a great deal of money to be saved by northern parts not being forced to pay for stuff we don't want or need. HS2, trident, crossrail, a military armed way more than is necessary, state funerals for royalty, state security for trump's visit, security for a maggie th..... etc statue, stupidly huge payouts for government brexit or no deal 'planning' outsourcing everything to dodgy groups like carillion, virgin, serco etc.....anyway i could go on. we have renewables, fish, high quality food and whisky. and we won't be dragged into any more stupid wars to suit trump or whoever.

even the most passionate english person can plainly see what a mess and a joke the parliament is - the place is permanently infested with tories and the country has a sizable rump (ooer, missus) who will always support them whatever happens. if you have the chance to cut those links, why wouldn't you?

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 16 Feb 19 - 06:50 AM

Varadkar is nervously watching his (chlorinated?) chickens starting to come home to roost…

https://order-order.com/2019/02/15/ireland-getting-nervous-eu-stitch/

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 16 Feb 19 - 06:51 PM

So BMI has collapsed, blaming brexit. Wow. Of all the airlines I've used providing flights to Europe, BMI was by far the best. Bollocks.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 17 Feb 19 - 12:56 AM

Nah, it's 'Project Fear' Steve!??

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: DMcG
Date: 17 Feb 19 - 03:09 AM

And FlyBe has said the company will be wound up if a sale is not agreed by shareholders in early March. They blame their problems on currency exchange rates and oil prices. Currency rates, as we all know, have nothing whatsoever to do with Brexit ....

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 17 Feb 19 - 03:36 AM

FLYBE Facts:

BMI asset value in 2008 was £12 million.
EU interference made their Heathrow landing slots worth £770 million.
Various airlines bought shares to gain slots and then sold the company on.
By 2012 they were losing £1 million a month.

Where does Brexit come into this ?

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: DMcG
Date: 17 Feb 19 - 03:41 AM

I think if you say "FlyBe FACTS" and then go on to talk about FlyBMI which is a completely separate company you must not be surprised if we have certain doubts....

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: DMcG
Date: 17 Feb 19 - 04:15 AM

It might be worth mentioning that I used to work for the UK Civil Aviation Authority in the section that regulated the slots at airports, so I can probably say quite a lot about the impact of "EU interference." Suffice it to say that in broad terms, the slots are worth what airlines are prepared to pay, no more, no less and the EU regulations are about ensuring slots are bought to be used, not to held unused to block out competitors. What airlines are prepared to pay depends on their forecast - yes, I am afraid, they do rely on forecasts - of how profitable owning one slot rather than another is. Everything that affects potential profitability feeds into that forecast, including how Brexit might alter the market.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 17 Feb 19 - 04:27 AM

BMI Regional had emerged in 2012 as a spin-off airline, under new owners, after the mainline carrier BMI was sold to British Airways parent IAG. BMI Regional operated services under the brand name Flybmi

Flybe is a totally separate company that is also up for sale, Potential buyers have been mentioned as Easyjet and Stobart.

Brain not fully engaged. Apologies for confusion.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: DMcG
Date: 17 Feb 19 - 04:39 AM

I am reminded of a brilliant "Rise and Fall or Reginald Perrin" where he invited all the senior staff of his company to a party and they all hung awkwardly aroubd his dining room whwre there was no food, but no one could mention it. After a long time he said, "Right every one, shall we move into the garden now?" Evwryone brightened up becauae obviously all the food was out there ... And it wasn't.

In the end he said there was no food but he had donated all the cost of it to a charity and was sure every one would agree. And of course they had no choice but to agree.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: DMcG
Date: 17 Feb 19 - 04:40 AM

Whoops everyone. Talk about brain not being engaged. That was a text to my daughter!

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 17 Feb 19 - 04:54 AM

"Whoops everyone. Talk about brain not being engaged. That was a text to my daughter!"

ROTHLMAO! I was wondering what you were drinking last night...!! :-)

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: DMcG
Date: 17 Feb 19 - 05:15 AM

I did have a little prosecco on the grounds we had some still around from a party we had, so it was on hand when an family engagement was announced. But that's all, honest.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 17 Feb 19 - 05:40 AM

It's a well-known fact in our house that a cracked-open bottle of prosecco must be consumed in full as one wouldn't want to be later consuming the flat article. We therefore never have 'a little prosecco" unless there are four or five of us, and even then it prompts the commissioning of a second bottle.

Back to the ruck...

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 17 Feb 19 - 06:48 AM

Everything that affects potential profitability feeds into that forecast, including how Brexit might alter the market.

No one can dispute that.
However the slots were sold off long before brexit was a gleam in anyone's eye. The residue of the company was a stripped out husk losing money from that time if my understanding is correct. From comments I have seen elsewhere it was a dead duck a long time back.
"The airline was heavily loss-making, and no-one was prepared to put in extra funding. The average passenger load per flight was just 18, meaning even the small regional jet planes flown by Flybmi were less than half-full, The typical Ryanair departure has 10 times as many passengers.

Since Flybmi split away from BMI, investors have pumped in £40m, which represents a subsidy of about £13 per passenger ever flown."

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: DMcG
Date: 17 Feb 19 - 08:11 AM

Potential purchasers of flyBMI and flybe will take the forecast return for whatever slots they own into account, and they will base any such forecast from today when Brexit is more than a gleam in anyone's eye.

It is silly to blame everything on Brexit. But it is equally silly to refuse to admit Brexit might be causing problems.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 17 Feb 19 - 10:15 AM

I think their business model had been flawed for years. The only surprise is that they kept trading so long. The dog was dead, the infestation of fleas was insufficient to keep it moving. Brexit will occur after it's wake.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 17 Feb 19 - 11:53 AM

The FlyMBI affair has now been linked to the Brexit fiasco on today's mid-day news, as if we didn't know already
Watch this space, this is just another of more to come
Jim Carroll

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 17 Feb 19 - 12:31 PM

This winter is proving extremely cruel to small airlines, which have high fixed costs and, currently, very low revenues. It has precipitated the collapse of Primera Air, Cobalt of Cyprus and Germania before Flybmi.

Flybe, which is continuing operations as normal, has been rescued by a cash injection from a consortium involving Virgin Atlantic, Stobart Air and a US hedge fund – which bought it for just £2.2m.

Small regional airlines based in the UK are particularly vulnerable. Return journeys on domestic flights are subject to £26 in Air Passenger Duty, placing them at an immediate disadvantage. And whenever a route becomes successful, it is likely that a bigger player will elbow in with larger planes and lower fares.

Lets see a Scandinavian airline, a cypriot airline, and a german airline along with FlyBMI all kicked into touch and Flybe struggling.
All due to Brexit?
Pull the other one!

Awkward things facts.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: DMcG
Date: 17 Feb 19 - 01:00 PM

This is the second time in about as many weeks I have pointed this out. Brexit can be A factor without being the ONLY or even the MAIN factor., That all low cost carriers are finding it tough does not affect whether Brexit uncertainty makes things tougher.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 17 Feb 19 - 01:22 PM

DMcG I do not really dispute your analysis. What somewhat irritates me is those that latch on to brexit as the sole cause of all things negative. Variable factors impact outcomes, from confidence to the weather. The problem arises in trying to assign the correct weighting to each of the variables besides actually being able to identify them in the first place.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Raggytash
Date: 17 Feb 19 - 02:22 PM

The main difference being is that Brexit is perceived to be a factor.

A factor of our own making.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Raggytash
Date: 17 Feb 19 - 02:48 PM

Now I'n not about the buy a Porsche or a Audi, Lamborghini or a Bugatti.

However I could consider buying a Seat or a Skoda.

Now the German company is warning that prices may increase by 10% after the UK leaves the EU.

One should note that this is in addition to the rises created by the fall in the value of the pound since June 2016.

What price Brexit eh! I fear we're about to find out.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47270616

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Raggytash
Date: 17 Feb 19 - 02:49 PM

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47270616

Try again:-)

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 17 Feb 19 - 03:01 PM

Cars are not green. You should walk.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Raggytash
Date: 17 Feb 19 - 04:26 PM

Well. lets see.

The nearest "city" to where I live in 40 miles.

Now in my youth I may have been able to walk that in 10/11 hours.

Now I fear it may take me a week.

Idiot.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 17 Feb 19 - 04:30 PM

700! Don't do it Ravgy!

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 17 Feb 19 - 04:32 PM

And I've got 700!

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 17 Feb 19 - 04:33 PM

Bugger! Missed! :-)