BS: New rules for the coming pandemic

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: punkfolkrocker
Date: 11 Mar 20 - 01:33 PM

At least it's not a 'pandademic'...

They might look cute and cuddly, but they can turn vicious...

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Iains
Date: 11 Mar 20 - 01:18 PM

The WHO has now declared the virus has created a pandemic.

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: punkfolkrocker
Date: 11 Mar 20 - 12:22 PM

But how many of the newly confirmed negatives will catch it soon enough...???

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Iains
Date: 11 Mar 20 - 12:10 PM

As of 9am on 11 March 2020, 27,476 people have been tested in the UK, of which 27,020 were confirmed negative and 456 were confirmed as positive. Six patients who tested positive for COVID-19 have died.

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Jack Campin
Date: 11 Mar 20 - 08:58 AM

Report on a Lancet article about what makes people more likely to die. (Link is in this news story).

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/120173086/coronavirus-heres-who-is-most-at-risk-of-dying-from-covid19

The one thing that stands out for me is coagulation risk. I'm on microdose aspirin anyway, as is my wife; in general this does not seem like such a good idea for the general population as it did a few years ago, but in this situation it looks like it might make a difference, and it's about the only factor they look at that you can actually do anything about.

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Donuel
Date: 11 Mar 20 - 08:54 AM

Never have so few done so little to kill so many.

I'm afraid its all bad news from here out...

The US is 1 week away from hospitals being overwhelmed.

That is what mitigation was deigned to slow down and prevent hospital insffectiveness.

The collapse of civilized behavior is the PANIC that we are told DO NOT . This is more likely to arrive on the other side of the bell shaped curve spike.

KIDS under 10 seem immune

Over ` 58 not immune

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 11 Mar 20 - 07:19 AM

UK Threat Level raised...    ;-)   :-)

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Iains
Date: 11 Mar 20 - 05:45 AM

The story below is reported in various other media outlets so would appear to be true.
So much for EU solidarity!


https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1253621/coronavirus-italy-eu-ursula-von-der-leyen-brussles-andre-loesekrug-pietri


www.nytimes.com › business › eu-exports-medical-equipment

Health ministers squabble over face masks at coronavirus talks
www.politico.eu › article › health-ministers-squabble-over-face-masks...

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Donuel
Date: 10 Mar 20 - 03:31 PM

Hope for the best
expect the worst
You hope Obama
but get Robert Durst

Life's always fatal
From grave to cradle
You can't always right the wrong

Hope for he best
expect the worst
You have an idea
but bubbles burst

Life's always fatal
From grave to cradle
You can't always right the wrong

Hope for for the best
expect the worst
There's executions
and you're the first

Life's always fatal
From grave to cradle
You can't always right the wrong

Hope for the best
expect the worst
you may be blessed
or devil cursed

Life's always fatal
From grave to cradle
You can't always right the wrong

hope for the best
expect the worst
you got the lead
but its unrehearsed

Life's always fatal
From grave to cradle
You can't always right the wrong

Hope for the best
expect the worst
You have a Porshe
but its submersed

Life's always fatal
From grave to cradle
You can't always right the wrong

Hope for the best
expect the worst
The dead aroma
could be corona

You can't always beat the odds

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Donuel
Date: 10 Mar 20 - 02:29 PM

When you can't work from home or can phone in work you are likey to be laid off. UNLESS the government makes special assurances. Pharmacies obey insurance companies even in a pandemic? Yep
There are policies in NYS now that is tackling these issues including food deliveries.

Its up to localities or Governors to help you. Big Government not so much.

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Mr Red
Date: 10 Mar 20 - 01:58 PM

pfr - you are supposed to wash hands with the alcohol, not drink it!

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: punkfolkrocker
Date: 10 Mar 20 - 12:50 PM

How effective would a military surplus gas mask,
and discount sports shop boxing gloves,
be as street & shops wear to combat corona infection...???

Maybe wellies, and disposable plastic music festival poncho as well...

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Mr Red
Date: 10 Mar 20 - 12:37 PM

Has anyone noticed UK supermarkets are not re-stockng the shelves of the cheaper brands of items. Toilet rolls and porridge oats, are things I have noticed at several supermarkets. Things with a long shelf life. Not happening with food like yoghurt, bananas or bacon etc.

Using contingency plans formulated for a no-deal Brexshit, it has been said by spokesmen for the supermarket trade. Price rises predicted but not quite in this way.

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: punkfolkrocker
Date: 10 Mar 20 - 12:33 PM

This is at a time when local GP surgeries are closing down
to consolidate into big joint clinics
sharing much larger waiting rooms,
full of far more patients...

So when one suspect patient causes a town's mega big GP surgery to go into emergency shut down....

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Iains
Date: 10 Mar 20 - 12:33 PM

As of 9am on 10 March 2020, 26,261 people have been tested in the UK, of which 25,888 were confirmed negative and 373 were confirmed as positive. Six patients who tested positive for COVID-19 have died.

Some interesting graphs below. Who has confidence in the Chinese one? Did lockdown work or is someone telling porkies?
Compare China to Italy


https://www.bbc.com/news/world-51235105

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Senoufou
Date: 10 Mar 20 - 12:25 PM

A doctor's surgery very near our Morrisons supermarket over in Fakenham closed a few days ago, and put a huge warning sign on the door. Apparently a patient had exhibited signs of the virus in their waiting room. But a mere one hour later it re-opened! It had all been a hum. I can't see how they could have tested the person so swiftly though. (It isn't our surgery, not that it matters.)

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 10 Mar 20 - 11:34 AM

But I think you're right about Ebola. I suppose there could be other exceptions.

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 10 Mar 20 - 11:30 AM

We've had this before here. Dead bodies don't harbour pathogens. Disease-causing organisms require living tissue and/or body temperature. After death, decay organisms quickly take over. A smell issue rather than a health issue. I did point to a website, funerals.org I think, that clarifies this. I mean, how do you think embalmers, funeral directors and cremation attendants would get on if they were constantly having to handle "diseased corpses?" The answer is, they don't. The organisms lose their virulence shortly after death. I believe that HIV could be a rare exception to that. When this came up before, someone mentioned anthrax spores. Well I don't think we need go around worrying about that too much. If you're going to get anthrax it probably won't be from your dead granny.

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Mr Red
Date: 10 Mar 20 - 10:32 AM

The UK are having a few events cancelled, but the Gov are saying no need to cancel (as of this date).

Listening to the news it struck me that if the Gov are serious in saying that, they haven't asked for everyone at events to provide contact details. Our event was ticketed by the venue and some punters would have left details via credit card etc. But some paid cash on the night!

The reason contact details are useful is: once a case is reported, the Gov claim to be tracing all possible contacts. This is how they can.

Another thought struck me is that the only way we lick this virus is when sufficient peoples' immune cells have been exposed. ie herd immunity

The containment phase will only delay that, but also the severity of the peak of the cases. But if the delay is long enough a vaccine may have been found. And history tells us, those that listen, there will be second and other waves as people relax and the virus mutates. It already has.

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Nigel Parsons
Date: 10 Mar 20 - 10:22 AM

mg:
'Mandatory cremations' would be objectionable to many on religious grounds. A partial list can be found Here.

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Mrrzy
Date: 10 Mar 20 - 09:18 AM

I don't think dead people carry coronavirus the way they carry ebola.

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Donuel
Date: 10 Mar 20 - 06:44 AM

:^}

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: mg
Date: 09 Mar 20 - 07:17 PM

Two things to add to Donuel's list..homeless populations and prisons. Oh dear, I have brothers who work with each.

I don't understand why Seattle did not proclaim one hospital to be the place to have CV patients instead of one here and three here etc. You could have economy of scale with personnel, quarantine, training, housekeeping, machinery etc. At some point with a spread, they must do that and we might have to lower expectations of what a hospital is...a cow barn in south dakota??

What is concerning about the Kirkland WA case is the number of staff showing symptoms..70 out of 182 I think are quarantined or self quarantined. It was about the same rate as the elderly residents. Also the very high rates among the cruise ship staff.

There also need to be corona-free clinics for walk ins and corona possibility clinics for hopefully prearranged people. Everyone screened regardless.

One of my main concerns is the transportation of bodies and the safety of the personnel and the cleaning of the vehicles. Also I can't believe that there don't seem to be mandatory cremations or other immediate procedures of confirmed deaths. Memorial services should be by Skype or something.

Dink around with epidemics, especially in places with huge homeless populations, at your peril. It might be good that the Seattle area got hit the hardest first. Excellent medical and biotech and all sorts of tech capabilities. Bill Gates sponsoring test kits and making available soon. UW epidemiology dept., where I used to work in unrelated work, excellent.

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Donuel
Date: 09 Mar 20 - 06:33 PM

Many can not afford to hunker down for long

Red so you are multi talented.
Gilly, good on you.

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2236544-coronavirus-are-there-two-strains-and-is-one-more-deadly/?utm_campaign=onesignal&ut

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Mr Red
Date: 09 Mar 20 - 04:07 PM

The world economy was being driven by China. There were fears as it slowed down (relatively) it would cause a re-adjustment (aka recession stylee). We were due a re-adjustment. Oil prices?

COVID-19, or the actions in various countries to contain it, can't exactly lift the world economy. The repercussions will linger. It has a tail, and we ain't there yet.

UK floods don't help. It will mean higher premiums. Promises to build better defences will mean more government borrowing. Pound will be affected, imports more expensive.

And there are more costs ahead for the UK. Change costs money, payback (if & when) will be long coming.

All of which feed into pension pots, for those that expect to have a pension in future. Or are in receipt now.

If anyone cares to predict the effects of a mix of the above - welcome. But we are heading for troubled waters, in financial liquidity.

Personally I see the coronavirus as more of a concern - immediately. Ya can't wash yer hands of .............. er, should I re-phrase that?

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: gillymor
Date: 09 Mar 20 - 01:46 PM

It wasn't about financial benefit, it was a symbolic move that helped me sleep better at night.

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Donuel
Date: 09 Mar 20 - 01:42 PM

If you moved 3 million you will not gain anything but you will not lose either.(other than inflation) The 3 million might provide you with the equivalent $ of a part time dishwasher's annual salary.
10 year US bond rate is now 0.4 or less
One could do worse than what you did.

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: gillymor
Date: 09 Mar 20 - 10:28 AM

In January 2019 I moved all of my investments into money market and non-volatile bond funds so as not to support the Trump economy and now I'm glad I did. I don't wish ill on anyone (I might make an exception to that regarding Trump, Miller, Pence, Barr etc.) but if this flagging economy and this pandemic helps rid us of the terminal disease that is the Trump administration the whole world will be better off in the long run,IMO.

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Iains
Date: 09 Mar 20 - 10:21 AM

As of 9am on 9 March 2020, 24,960 people have been tested in the UK, of which 24,641 were confirmed negative and 319 were confirmed as positive. Three patients who tested positive for COVID-19 have died.

The stock market was opened and then shut down automaticly after 15 minutes of a total collapse. Sure, everything is fine, its normal, nothing to see here.

Is that due to:
1) the corona virus?
2) The russians and saudis squabbling over the price of oil?
3) both?

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Donuel
Date: 09 Mar 20 - 09:42 AM

The stock market was opened and then shut down automaticly after 15 minutes of a total collapse. Sure, everything is fine, its normal, nothing to see here.

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Senoufou
Date: 09 Mar 20 - 09:29 AM

The last time I 'caught' anything was that Russian flu, in 1977. It was rather nasty (high temp, weakness etc) but from all reports at the time you'd think it was going to be the Dreaded Lurgy. I didn't find it all that bad.
Haven't had anything since (not even a cold!) so I'm hoping my immune system is in good order. Being a teacher all my working life has probably given me a lot of antibodies, having been exposed to a myriad germs and bugs from my pupils.
At the end of the day (hate that expression!) we can't do more than wash our hands, eat sensibly and avoid large crowds if possible.
If I ever dared to look glum,my blooming father used to say, "Cheer up! It may never happen!" Good advice really...

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Donuel
Date: 09 Mar 20 - 09:18 AM

With no overarching plan, you are in the hands of your local/tribal authoritiess or assume it is every one for themselves.
Good luck to each of you.

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Iains
Date: 09 Mar 20 - 09:10 AM

And how a government should not react:

https://www.irishcentral.com/news/coronavirus-ireland-response

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: mayomick
Date: 09 Mar 20 - 09:08 AM

When I hear people saying that most people who get the virus will only have quite a mild illness , it makes me feel optimistic but then I wonder if that only applies to young , healthy people.

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Iains
Date: 09 Mar 20 - 09:05 AM

From the CDC
This is a rapidly evolving situation and CDC’s risk assessment will be updated as needed.
Current risk assessment:
    For most people, the immediate risk of being exposed to the virus that causes COVID-19 is thought to be low. This virus is not currently widespread in the United States.
    People in places where ongoing community spread of the virus that causes COVID-19 has been reported are at elevated risk of exposure, with increase in risk dependent on the location.
    Healthcare workers caring for patients with COVID-19 are at elevated risk of exposure.
    Close contacts of persons with COVID-19 also are at elevated risk of exposure.
    Travelers returning from affected international locations where community spread is occurring also are at elevated risk of exposure, with increase in risk dependent on the location.

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Donuel
Date: 09 Mar 20 - 09:03 AM

I find the person in charge of our reponse and information regarding this disruption of life and possibly life itself, guilty of campaigning instead of organizing and preparing for a pandemic.

Res ipsa loquitur

So far the President HAS NOT TOLD THE PEOPLE:
What do we do except wash hands
How do we get tested
What shut downs may occur;
Financial crises
Schools
Hospital procedures
Sports
Rallys
Concerts
Cochella
Groceries
Regions
Travel
Worship
Voting
Cover ups
Congressional shut down
How long will communities be forcefully quarantined
Should we quarantine
What should we have on hand.

Will any response to our questions be forthcoming or not.

Will conservatives who are told it is just a media hoax become the chief carriers who infect the rest.

The answers to these questions come instead from yourselves piecemeal and contradicting.

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Senoufou
Date: 09 Mar 20 - 08:51 AM

I agree about industrial residue in clothes coming out of the washing machine. I often put them through with no detergent at all, and they come out quite nice and clean nonetheless.
I only have a bath every three days (I know, I know, Mrs Smelly!) because, like Prince Andrew, hee hee, I don't sweat much at all. And I only use the water, no products. I have very short hair, so it's not a problem. I just like the rose scent of my soap for hand-washing.
People often remark on how good my skin looks.
Some scientist/medical chap on the News last night was saying that most people who get the virus will only have quite a mild illness.

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 09 Mar 20 - 07:23 AM

I knew a bloke at one school I worked at who caught flu three times a year, once a term. The odd thing was that he always caught it in time for Thursday and was fully recovered by Tuesday...

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: DMcG
Date: 09 Mar 20 - 07:03 AM

I don't want to stop your optimism, Steve, but that distorted reporting also happens with flu, so the comparative rate between coronavirus and flu is probably about right (pending more data.)

Of course, one of the major distortions on flu is people filling in sick forms for work, and flu is probably over-reported because of that, since 'flu' is a bit of a catch all on sick notes ...

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 09 Mar 20 - 06:21 AM

There may be thousands of people who caught this disease who never knew they were actually ill, or who shrugged off mild symptoms as something else. There may be thousands of others in non-quarantined areas who didn't report themselves sick for fear of being locked down for weeks. The vast majority of such untraced people will be better by now, and they were never included in any counts. What I'm thinking is that figures for death rates are not very reliable. The fact that different regions seem to have different death rates seems to reinforce this. In addition, death rate numbers for areas with cases in the low hundreds or fewer would be intrinsically unreliable ("sample size" too small and possibly unrepresentative of the population). If a hundred people round here tested positive, but 15 were in a old people's home, and twelve of them died, to invent a hypothetical example...

So I have a feeling that the true death rate could be a fair bit lower than is currently being reported. End of optimistic musings...

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Iains
Date: 09 Mar 20 - 05:23 AM

THE CORONAVIRUS crisis has sparked a collapse in global oil prices with industry experts predicting the biggest one-day decline in 29 years today as demand dries up in the wake of the outbreak.

One new rule    from this event is that the business model for shale oil and gas is totally destroyed.
THE CORONAVIRUS crisis has sparked a collapse in global oil prices with industry experts predicting the biggest one-day decline

60%/bbl is commonly quoted as the breakeven price for shale
With WTI at 32$/bbl hell is coming for breakfast

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Iains
Date: 09 Mar 20 - 04:09 AM

The Report of the WHO-China Joint Mission published on Feb. 28 by WHO is based on 55,924 laboratory confirmed cases. The report notes that "The Joint Mission acknowledges the known challenges and biases of reporting crude CFR early in an epidemic". Here are its findings on Case Fatality Ratio, or CFR (the mortality rate):

"As of 20 February, 2,114 of the 55,924 laboratory confirmed cases have died (crude fatality ratio [CFR: 3.8%) (note: at least some of whom were identified using a case definition that included pulmonary disease).

The overall CFR varies by location and intensity of transmission (i.e. 5.8% in Wuhan vs. 0.7% in other areas in China).
Wuhan also suffers considerable air pollution.

The London fog of 1952 killed 12000 people
Respiratory problems from air pollution exacerbated by complications from the   corona virus likely account for the higher death rate in Wuhan. The quoted percentages are likely suspect and may well change
over time (probably downwards)
The WHO suggests 7 million are killed each year by air pollution.

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 08 Mar 20 - 10:05 PM

Well get her to do so. I'd be very interested.

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: keberoxu
Date: 08 Mar 20 - 09:34 PM

Steve, Dorothy Parshall could speak to that subject.

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 08 Mar 20 - 08:14 PM

A few years ago I was diagnosed as having lichen planus in my mouth (thankfully, and I believe oddly, I don't have it any more). The consultant told me to avoid all products that contained sodium lauryl sulphate. He prescribed me some iron tablets. When I picked them up I found that an ingredient was...yes, you guessed it!

SLS is a detergent that is strong enough to be an industrial degreaser. It's in all sorts of things such as toothpaste and shampoos.

For a few months I tried to avoid all soaps and detergents, including shampoos. In addition, I always give my clothes three extra rinses after machine-washing, even though I'd moved on to hypo-allergenic washing powder. I did very well but eventually I ran into the rough with my hair ( which I'm a bit short of) so I now use a pea-sized bob of shampoo in the morning.

I don't use any soap or other bodily treatment that contains added perfume. When I get out of the shower I use Simple light moisturiser on my face, arms and legs. I've felt a lot better with this regime and I no longer get itchy skin in parts of me that are in intimate contact with clothing. Before that, life could be miserable. I have a feeling that detergent residues in our clothes, towels and on our skin are making a lot of us feel miserable. The best washing machine on earth is a failure when it comes to that final rinse. If you don't believe me, do a wash, take the clothes from the machine and put them in a sink full of water. You'll be amazed at what's still in your clothes. Enzymes, bleaches, perfumes, optical brighteners...

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 08 Mar 20 - 07:48 PM

It would be incredibly helpful all round if we could move on from associating Asians with face masks.

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Helen
Date: 08 Mar 20 - 06:40 PM

Iains, thanks for the link to the article on some of the reasons why some Asians wear face masks. Very interesting reading.

I have also been thinking about population. China's total population is almost 1.5 billion, which tops this list of
countries listed in order of population 2020 but Australia comes in at #55 on the list at almost 25.5 million. Our population is on land of approximately 7.6 million acres while China's land area is approximately 9.4 million acres. Not much bigger land area than ours.

In Australia we are very sparsely populated by comparison.

The populations of the cities of Shanghai and Beijing are each almost the same as the population of the whole of Australia.

If a huge number of people are living, working and socialising within a specified area like a city then the risk of passing infections from person to person has to increase dramatically compared with the scattered population of Australia, as an example.

It is uncommon in Australia normally (i.e. not during a pandemic) to see people wearing face masks in public but it is very common in Asian countries where the members of the population are in closer proximity to each other on a daily basis.

Just thinking out loud, in writing, on screen.

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Senoufou
Date: 08 Mar 20 - 03:01 PM

I would never use harsh soaps on my skin, neither would my husband. As Steve says, it does more harm than good. I just wash my hands with Woods of Windsor rose-scented soap while singing 'Skinny Malinkey Longlegs' all through. Husband sings some nice African ditty in Malinke.
We visited three different supermarkets yesterday, as I posted, and another this morning. One hand wash sufficed.
If we're all 'doomed,doomed I tell you' (Dad's Army) best eat some nice food, do the Mapouka and have a laugh.

Subject: RE: ALERT
From: Donuel
Date: 08 Mar 20 - 01:18 PM

Dr Tony Fauci says " We are now In the mitigating phase of the pandemic".

We have treatments for the pandemic of AIDS . No-Vaccines

No treatments for Covid 19 . No vaccines

If Covid 19 goes down to low levels (like HIV) in the future but never burns out it will continue to kill in ever cumulative numbers annually.
or it could burn out, we don't know.

Thats why funding health Defense should switch budgets with the Defense Dept.

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Donuel
Date: 08 Mar 20 - 12:37 PM

I have personally seen the results of obcessive compulsive hand washing and it is ugly.

The middle path is fine young grasshopper.