BS: New rules for the coming pandemic

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Iains
Date: 21 Mar 20 - 03:53 PM

Crude data requires more than crude interpretation.


https://www.gov.ie/en/publication/8eadd0-an-analysis-of-the-438-cases-of-covid-19-in-ireland-as-of-wednesday-18-m/

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 21 Mar 20 - 03:25 PM

The figures speak for themselves. Italy 10% mortality. Uk 5%. Norway 1%.

The explanations are not as simple.

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Iains
Date: 21 Mar 20 - 03:05 PM

If you do not like the way the figures are presented I suggest you take it up with the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Controlwho collated the figures. I suspect they knowa little bit more about it than point scoring nit pickers. The figures in the table were the Situation update for the EU/EEA and the UK, as of 21 March 2020

For EU hospitalbed for varying levels of care see below
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00134-012-2627-8/tables/2
Research from Italy into 355 deaths found that only three (0.8%) had no other illnesses. Nearly half of them - 48.5% - already had three or even more health conditions Another 25.6% had two other 'pathologies', while 25.1% had one other illness

0-8   1.2%
19-50 25%



I

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: punkfolkrocker
Date: 21 Mar 20 - 02:10 PM

I still don't know how many of our UK reported deaths
would have probably died anyway around about now, or fairly soon;
if covid hadn't finished them off first..

why does it matter...???

In treading a careful balance between panic and complacency,
the media needs to keep a sensible perspective on the developing story.
Not over-sensationalise the crisis...

What are the stats for deaths of younger fitter victims
[with no pre-existing underlying health problems]...???

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 21 Mar 20 - 01:24 PM

The figures above only show the vast difference between the number of cases recorded between countries.

Italy 40000 cases and 4000 deaths is 10% mortality. UK is 5%. Norway is 1%. Work out the rest yourself but either someone is understating the number of cases, the health care in Italy is crap or the figures are otherwise skewed.

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Iains
Date: 21 Mar 20 - 12:31 PM

EU/EEA and the UK         Sum of Cases         Sum of Deaths
Italy                                  47021                      4032
Spain                                 19980                      1002
Germany                           18323                      45
France                               12612                      450
United_Kingdom             3983                         177
Netherlands                      2994                        106
Austria                              2649                        6
Belgium                            2257                      37
Norway                            742                         7
Sweden                            1623                        16
Denmark                         1255                         9
Portugal                           1020                        6
Czech_Republic               904                         0
Ireland                              683                         3

It helps to keep some sort of perspective and stop politicising

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Donuel
Date: 21 Mar 20 - 09:23 AM

That site may help many make decisions in the long run Mr.Red.

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Mr Red
Date: 21 Mar 20 - 08:56 AM

Gov Figures/graphs

the daily figures are panning out to display the classic saw-tooth pattern. Which I see as the natural rise of cases, with Gov advice/edicts reigning back the numbers in steps as they kick in. Given the task it is the best they can do medically. Financially we are in for a nuclear winter.

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: DMcG
Date: 21 Mar 20 - 08:24 AM

Daughter told me via Skype this morning that a friend had a tin of soup actually taken from their hand yesterday.

Depressing that some of us are at that point.

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 21 Mar 20 - 08:14 AM

That's a great piece by Marina, John.

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Donuel
Date: 21 Mar 20 - 07:15 AM

Lets hope your sturdy neice has a 14 day quarantine

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Senoufou
Date: 21 Mar 20 - 04:39 AM

Our village shop and the pub 'The Fox' (which has had to close) have posted on our village residents Facebook site that they will deliver food and even cooked meals to those who are isolated for whatever reason. And the village hall committee have also drawn up a system for checking on elderly residents who need assistance. Our vicar too is doing all she can to organise food deliveries and support.
It's wonderful to see this community spirit springing into action.
My sister has now formally registered as a retired consultant available for specialist ventilation care in her local hospital. And my niece has now recovered from what we think could have been Covid 19, to register as a volunteer.

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: mg
Date: 21 Mar 20 - 03:49 AM

from a member here..
hang a red cloth from your window if you need help. what a great idea.


Red cloth to ask for help
MARIE-FRANCE LÉTOURNEAU
The Voice of the East
Share

The City of Granby is following suit with the red cloth initiative launched on social networks in France, as part of the COVID-19 pandemic. She encourages single people who need help to hang a red cloth on the window to signal it to their neighbors.

Cultural and Community Life (VCC) in Granby promotes the idea on its Facebook page.

“In these times of isolation at home, people can find themselves alone and with few means to communicate their needs for help, whether for missing medicines or a lack of food. If you find yourself in this situation, we invite you to hang a red cloth on your window, on your door or on your balcony, in order to indicate to your neighbors that you need help. You can hang a towel, a scarf, a sweater or a tie for example ”, argues VCC.

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Donuel
Date: 20 Mar 20 - 09:24 PM

The Global pandemic is no longer coming, it is here there and everywhere. (the heart goes on)

Every night on TV
I see it, I hear it
That's how I know Covid goes on
Far across the distance
And spaces between us
You have come to show you go on
Here, there, wherever you are
I believe that the virus goes on
Once more you open the door
And you're here in my nose
And my cough will go on and on
Covid can touch us one time
And last for a lifetime
And never let go 'til we're gone

Once more…

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: mayomick
Date: 20 Mar 20 - 07:34 PM

There has been a fall in the confirmed numbers in Ireland
Thursday : .......an increase of diagnosed cases with 191 new confirmed cases.

Friday :"There have been a further 126 cases of Covid-19 confirmed in Ireland, the Department of Health has said, bringing the total number of cases here to 683. "
The RTE online report doesn't allude to the drop other than by quoting the head of the Health Service, Dr Holohan, saying

"Now is not the time for complacency,"

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 20 Mar 20 - 05:15 PM

Marina Hyde, right on the button In the Guardian, about Dom & Dumber’s (mis-)handling of the UK’s crisis.

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Donuel
Date: 20 Mar 20 - 04:39 PM

I get it now. Go ahead and take out whatever stress or frustration on this thread or elsewhere. If ever there was need to do so, it is now.
Mental health will be advanced with freedom - not additional rules.

Sorry, Im not usually a rules kind of guy.

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Donuel
Date: 20 Mar 20 - 01:49 PM

There are so many recriminations to go around we are in danger of focusing only on that to the exclusion of a small detail that will increase your chance of survival. So..

So and So FUCKED UP

Move on And defend yourself.

IN CASE YOU NEED a fix...
The US President just said moments ago "I have not received the credit I deserve".

- CLEARLY SINCE HE'S NOT BEEN HUNG UPSIDE DOWN LIKE mUSSOLINI

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: punkfolkrocker
Date: 20 Mar 20 - 12:17 PM

Two points..

1] mg - please don't take this the wrong way, it's not sarcasm or intended as any slight against you.
But instead a practical suggestion..

Her goes.. In the UK at least we are being implored by official sources
NOT to spread internet hearsay and rumour about the virus or possible remedies..
Official fact checkers are working flat out to list believable sounding
but stupid ideas circulating social media..

So, mg - my suggestion is why don't you open a separate thread
where you can notify us of things you hear and speculate about.

That way we can discuss them fairly,
but open mindedly with full objectivity and sensible consideration...



2] Politics - Politicians should be held to account
for trying to weaponize this pandemic for their own gain over rivals.
But that aint gonna happen in the real world..

However in this thread, we ought to keep partisan political party allegiances out of the discussion
as much as possible.

Here in the UK it is inescapably relevant to acknowledge if a Govt was too slow to act positively
and effectively,
because of entrenched Laissez-faire ideology.

But a reality check kick up the arse is now at least motivating them to to try to look as though
they know what they are doing to send corona packing...!!!

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 20 Mar 20 - 11:41 AM

CAPITALISM ROWS IN TO FIGHT THE EMERGENCY
Jim Carroll

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Iains
Date: 20 Mar 20 - 07:26 AM

The data below shows the worldwide numbers infected.
Do the figures for Italy Spain and France and even Ireland indicate the road the UK will follow when it comes to the progression?

Country #/milliom       Deaths
Italy          679             3406
Spain         427             1002
Iran            219             1284
Germany   198             44
US             17               43
France      168             372
UK            48               144
Ireland      113             3
Interesting the worldometer site sees fit to list the rate of infection per million of population as a useful metric.

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Donuel
Date: 20 Mar 20 - 07:06 AM

Our usual death population is 2.7 million per year. CORONA will add another 2.2 million - doubling our dearly departed.

"when you put it that way, it only sounds serious"
The Donald

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Senoufou
Date: 20 Mar 20 - 06:43 AM

Schools here shut down at the end of today. Husband (full-time school cleaner) has been told there will be work for him as usual, deep-cleaning and so on. Also, there may be a few pupils accepted if their parents are 'key workers', so he'll be cleaning toilets and one or two classrooms, taking out rubbish etc.
He's been issued with a sort of mini hazmat suit of plastic, and must wear two pairs of rubber gloves one over the other (!) Extra disinfectant has arrived in large quantities, so it all seems well thought out.

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Donuel
Date: 20 Mar 20 - 06:28 AM

The COVID-19 death rate — the number of known deaths divided by the total number of confirmed cases — varies widely by country right now. In Italy, as of Tuesday, it was about 8%, while in the US it was 1.7%.

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Mr Red
Date: 20 Mar 20 - 05:56 AM

current totals on Gov figure are 3269 cases and 144 deaths.

Death rate of < 0.5%. That tells me that:

1) not all cases are reported to official channels. eg Self-isolation rather than resorting to health systems.
2) or in the UK enough have acquired a level of immunity from previous rounds. And I have heard of several examples of coughs (dry?) that lingered for 4 weeks and other symptoms, occurring before Xmas.
3) The UK are an unusually tough bunch (unlikely, but we can dream).

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: DMcG
Date: 20 Mar 20 - 05:03 AM

There should have been testing, at least of NHS workers

In fact, even that is not good enough. Yes, you can filter out the ones with the illness. But those who are clear are only clear at the moment of the test sample. So actually the NHS staff need to be retested fairly constantly: weekly or daily if possible.

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: mg
Date: 20 Mar 20 - 03:07 AM

worse than I would have predicted. i have thoughts along those lines but pm me if you want to hear them.

Is anyone here a respiratory therapist ? I am wondering if what is used to treat cystic fibrosis patients, at least in the past, would be helpful if no ventilators. I believe they need help breathing because of fluid or sticky stuff in lungs..if they could dislodge it, wouldn't that be better than nothing? Also all I hear about is ventilators...don't they use suction? It seems if you could get rid of the gunk that would help.

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Helen
Date: 20 Mar 20 - 01:33 AM

Funeral homes 're-using body bags, gowns' due to COVID-19 supply restrictions

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Helen
Date: 19 Mar 20 - 10:48 PM

It won't help me, mg, because my sense of smell has always been problematic. It has its up sides sometimes. I could work as a forensic pathologist or a garbage collector.

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Donuel
Date: 19 Mar 20 - 10:47 PM

If you end up on a ventilator your odds are still 50-50.

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: mg
Date: 19 Mar 20 - 09:29 PM

wasn't letting me type. anyway, some people are now reporting a loss of smell as a symptom. Could help to diagnose.

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 19 Mar 20 - 07:30 PM

Right.

I've watched Johnson's press conferences. I've watched him bumbling along, clearly totally out of his depth, clearly not understanding what's going on. I watched the confounded idiot Hancock on Question Time, alternating between bumbling-fool mode and nodding-donkey mode.

This government is actually killing people. There should have been testing, at least of NHS workers, preferably of everybody with any symptoms. South Korea is testing five times more people per day than us, and they're knocking the thing on its head. As it goes, we don't know who's got the thing, who's had the thing and who hasn't. We can't track down contacts. Sick doctors and nurses are passing on the germ to patients, because they don't know they're harbouring it. We've told kids hoping to get to university that they can't go to school any more, but we haven't told them how they're going to be assessed. There are millions of people who are suddenly going to be laid off, but we haven't told them as yet how we're going to stop them from sleeping in cardboard boxes in doorways this time next week. It's bloody shocking, it is. And it's Tory Britain, to the nth degree. They run down the NHS. They mercilessly strip local councils of their funding. They promote the gig economy and zero-hours contracts but they won't support the millions who are forced to live that way when they're suddenly shafted by their "employers." Gimme strength...

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Mr Red
Date: 19 Mar 20 - 05:28 PM

A thought:
The UK Gov have declined to have a legally enforceable lock-down.
Call be a curmudgeonly old cynic but we are edging visibly closer to April 6th. Traditionally the Income Tax submission deadline. Proof of history.

With a legally enforceable curfew businesses can claim on their insurance for losses, depending on clauses thereto. Which the insurance companies have recourse on Gov. & a lot of workers' out-of-work benefits are seriously affected.

Curfew too early and people can massage (falsify?() their accounts to favour some advantage.

Now, what is the deadline for company accounts?

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: robomatic
Date: 19 Mar 20 - 04:54 PM

From the punk graffitti I saw spray painted in University District Seattle:

"OBEY ALL LAWS! BE A MODEL CITIZEN!!!"

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Donuel
Date: 19 Mar 20 - 02:03 PM

More wisdom via SRS
1. Your life will begin to feel like Groundhog Day. Be prepared.

2. Glass half full, people. Remind yourself how lucky you are to be alive. It makes the self-quarantining seem like less of a big deal.

3. Watch those movies and read those books on that ever-growing list in the notes section of your phone.

4. Take advantage of the extra time with your family and loved ones, if you are not sick yourself.

5. Explore journaling and meditation to deal with increased anxiety.

6. Most importantly, take it seriously. Follow the advice from the CDC and other health experts.

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Mrrzy
Date: 19 Mar 20 - 01:21 PM

Love the pattersong!

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Stilly River Sage
Date: 19 Mar 20 - 01:14 PM

Let's leave that kind of humor for another thread and another day.

During the daily press conferences from the White House there is information from experts and there is nonsense and whining from the resident. These public events would be much better with only those who know what they're talking about being given access to the mic. Let's leave the BS in Washington, D.C. for now.

Making masks - as someone who has a lifetime of sewing experience, I wonder if we're going to see home-grown mask production one of these days soon? Given the materials, people could crank them out, then if they're all run through an autoclave to sterilize them, they'd be good to go. If people can knit artificial pockets for kangaroos and covers for baby penguins, maybe it's time to start turning that creativity to something that can be standardized (sort of) and put to use.

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: punkfolkrocker
Date: 19 Mar 20 - 12:47 PM

Daily hilarity about bums and poo keeps my old mum's spirits up,
now she's wearing nappies again..

..can't be snooty about good healthy toilet humour...!!!

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: punkfolkrocker
Date: 19 Mar 20 - 11:25 AM

Educated consensus seems to be established that the general public wearing face masks
is a pointless false sense of security..

But some 'experts' are still recommending such protection,
and news reports show global wearing of makeshift scarves, tea towels, and hankies, etc..

Wrapping our heads in cling film and breathing through a snorkel...???

Is there actually a serious definitive conclusive scientific/governmental decision on this matter...???

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: punkfolkrocker
Date: 19 Mar 20 - 11:24 AM

Hello.. is this the daily roll call thread for mudcatters who are still breathing...???

pfr - HERE...

[though if the register is alphabetical, any mudcatters with names beginning with "Z"
might have snuffed it by the time their names are called...]

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Mr Red
Date: 19 Mar 20 - 05:03 AM

The Gov graphs are showing the dip I thought was a false dawn was just that. Daily case in the UK still rising, and not decelerating yet.

But on the plus side shops are trying to attract trade with humour so am posting photographs on my website(s):

covid-19.mister.red (opens in new tab) - Enjoy.

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: DMcG
Date: 19 Mar 20 - 04:44 AM

This is starting to go the rounds, I thought I'd cut'n'paste it here before anyone else!

I am the very model of effective social distancing!
I listen to the experts on the topic of resistance-ing;
I know that brunch and yoga class aren’t nearly as imperative
As doing what I can to change the nation’s viral narrative.
I’m very well acquainted, too, with living solitarily
And confident that everyone can do it temporarily:
Go take a walk, or ride a bike, or dig into an unread book;
Avoid the bars and restaurants and carry out, or learn to cook.
There’s lots of stuff to watch online while keeping safe from sinus ills
(In this case, it’s far better to enjoy your Netflix MINUS chills)!
Adopt a pet, compose a ballad, write some earnest doggerel,
And help demolish Trump before our next event inaugural.
Pandemics are alarming, but they aren’t insurmountable
If everybody pitches in to hold ourselves accountable.
In short, please do your part to practice prudent co-existence-ing,
And be the very model of effective social distancing!
(Credit unknown)

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Iains
Date: 19 Mar 20 - 04:00 AM

Behind the curve? Fortunately yes compared to certain other EU countries:
Cases of Covid19 infection.(ECDC 18.3.20)
Europe: Italy (31 506), Spain (11 178), France (7 730), Germany (7 156), Switzerland (2 650), United Kingdom (1 950), Netherlands (1 705), Austria (1 332), Norway (1 308), Belgium (1 243), Sweden (1 167), Denmark (1 024), Portugal (448), Czech Republic (434), Greece (387), Finland (319), Ireland (292), Slovenia (275), Iceland (247), Poland (238), Estonia (225), Romania (217), Luxembourg (140), Russia (114), San Marino (104), Turkey (98), Slovakia (97), Bulgaria (81), Armenia (78), Serbia (72), Croatia (69), Latvia (61), Albania (55), Hungary (50), Cyprus (40), Malta (38), Belarus (36), Georgia (34), North Macedonia (31), Moldova (30), Azerbaijan (28), Lithuania (25), Bosnia and Herzegovina (21), Kosovo** (19), Andorra (14), Ukraine (14), Monaco (9), Liechtenstein (7), Montenegro (2) and Holy See (1).

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: mg
Date: 19 Mar 20 - 01:54 AM

yes. and actually they are saying something called hydroxychloroquine is even more hopeful.

There are a lot of hopeful things being looked at, in terms of testing and possible treatments. One was vitamin c and b1 with another compound. I do not think things will get as bad as possible but I do think it is very serious indeed.

Has everyone seen the Irish doctor who talks about not waiting to be 100% sure because by then you will be too late. I think there are things that are not harmful, like eating garlic, wearing more face masks even if they are out in stores..people are making their own and plus hospitals are asking for home-made ones..some traditional chinese medicine...

elon musk is being persuaded or encouraged to make ventilators in his factories. that would be good. he asked where they were needed. i mentioned some seattle hospitals, but basically everywhere.

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Helen
Date: 19 Mar 20 - 01:43 AM

mg, I just read this in an ABC New (Aust) article about the study on an older HIV drug and chloroquine:

Could existing drugs treat COVID-19 infections?

"Early signs are promising, after Australian researchers this week revealed they are ready to begin clinical trials of a potential treatment for COVID-19 — using two existing drugs.

"The drugs in question are an older HIV drug and an anti-malaria drug called chloroquine, which is rarely used now as the malaria pathogen has become resistant to it.

"'There's certainly positive signals either this HIV drug or this anti-malaria drug actually work really well against COVID-19,' David Paterson, director of the Centre for Clinical Research at the University of Queensland, told The Project.

"'There's certainly positive signals either this HIV drug or this anti-malaria drug actually work really well against COVID-19', David Paterson, director of the Centre for Clinical Research at the University of Queensland, told The Project."

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: Stilly River Sage
Date: 18 Mar 20 - 10:11 PM

If you click on "share" (under the video, to the right side) a box will appear with a much shorter version of the URL than if you search and grab it from the top of the page.

https://youtu.be/ZzNqJ7iu8GU

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: mg
Date: 18 Mar 20 - 08:46 PM

was trying to make a blue cicky but clicky machine was down. that is the astoria shake

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: mg
Date: 18 Mar 20 - 08:45 PM

https://youtu.be/ZzNqJ7iu8GU

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: mg
Date: 18 Mar 20 - 06:42 PM

if you are out of toilet paper and using substitutes, do not put them down the toilet.even kleenex..put in a closed can and burn if disposable. causing all sorts of plumbing problems. someone posted four of eleven pumping stations are clogged with wipes and other products. if you need a plumber, will they be available? i think it is a prime group for catching anything and might be slow to adopt gloves, masks, etc. Some studies suggest fecal droplets can spread virus. you don't want to add a clogged up toilet to your woes.

Subject: RE: BS: New rules for the coming pandemic
From: McGrath of Harlow
Date: 18 Mar 20 - 06:40 PM

For those worried about finding loopaper, and distrustful of modern newspapers, Private Eye has a solution

Fortunately Private eye still relies on old-fashioned print and paper...