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BS: New news on the pandemic COVID-19
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Subject: RE: BS: New news on the pandemic COVID-19 From: Steve Shaw Date: 20 Jan 22 - 11:51 AM Quite right, Mrrzy. That distinction is usually buried here. No-one is talking about "rounding" the numbers. We are discussing how the numbers we are given could be made more accurate. Inflating numbers in order to make us more cautious, etc., is just dishonest. You are misreading what is being discussed here. So what's new. By the way, the 70% increase in transmissibility (which is probably a good stab at it) has never been definitively put down to "airborne" or other transmission strategies in any percentage combination. Let's stick to the science that we actually know (which is what I've been saying all along). |
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Subject: RE: BS: New news on the pandemic COVID-19 From: Mrrzy Date: 20 Jan 22 - 09:49 AM I am seeing articles differentiating Being in hospital *with* covid and being in hosppital *because of* covid, at least. My uncle had covid when he died of ild age, for instance. |
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Subject: RE: BS: New news on the pandemic COVID-19 From: Donuel Date: 20 Jan 22 - 09:40 AM Manuel is willing to believe Facebook, Basil gets embroiled in denying and covering up even rumored infections, Polly tries to talk sense but is worried, Sybil puts things in a familiar frame of reference and Major Gowen soldiers on despite what he reads in the paper. |
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Subject: RE: BS: New news on the pandemic COVID-19 From: Donuel Date: 20 Jan 22 - 09:10 AM Denial of Omicron's 70% increase of airborn transmissabilty which is at the upper limit of any virus is -fine- if it makes you personally feel better. As for public policy truth is best. Rounding up numbers is a respondsible thing to do in times of extreme spread and unknowns. Compared to China you have the freedom to deny or take serious precautions and not be forcibly locked in. If you feel you have made a great discovery that downplays pandemic, embrace it. It is not going to harm anyone but yourself if your guess is 'Fawlty". The Pandemic is bigger than you. Fawlty reasoning is Towering regarding the way people have reacted to the invisible threat. |
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Subject: RE: BS: New news on the pandemic COVID-19 From: Nigel Parsons Date: 20 Jan 22 - 06:17 AM Unfortunately, on this occasion I have to agree with Steve. Any 'spin' is being applied by those supplying the figures. As it stands at present, if a man gets knocked down by a bus, and dies in hospital, he is counted among the next day's Covid statistics if he has had a positive test in the last 28 days. Any person, or government, basing their actions on the statistics provided needs to have a full and clear knowledge of how the statistics are made up, and any reasons that they may be biased in one direction or another. Contrary to (some) popular beliefs, the sky is not falling. |
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Subject: RE: BS: New news on the pandemic COVID-19 From: Donuel Date: 19 Jan 22 - 04:29 PM Only yoooou... can ever think things through Only you, can make your dreams come true When you hold my gland, i understand The BS that you do You're your dream come true You are a one and only you. I have come to terms with the notion that you get the pandemic you get and not the one you prefer. A pandemic comes with all the human failings, victories and strategic side steps by a virus. |
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Subject: RE: BS: New news on the pandemic COVID-19 From: Donuel Date: 19 Jan 22 - 04:06 PM CVS said I had to wait until 6 months passed before a 4th booster. Walgreens said I had to wait 5 months which is 3 days from now. Based on this morning's corporate briefing to Walgreens pharmacies. I'll give the Johnson's a try this time. Its mix and match time, like my socks. |
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Subject: RE: BS: New news on the pandemic COVID-19 From: Steve Shaw Date: 19 Jan 22 - 03:53 PM Confirmation bias my arse. There is no justification for claiming, as has been claimed in this country for almost two years every day, that a disease that typically lasts about a week or ten days for nearly everyone who catches it has killed everyone who caught it within 28 days of their first symptoms. After ten days, it is not possible to ascribe deaths with any confidence at all directly to the virus. Some terminally weakened, of course, others by another illness that struck them when they were down, others who did not receive adequate treatment (the stories are legion). The current reported death rate as a proportion of omicron-infected people is just about equivalent to the death rate from flu. And even that is based not only on the bogus 28 days but also by neglecting the fact that flu is bloody obvious to everyone who catches it, whereas a third of people infected with coronavirus don't know they've got it and go uncounted, making the true pro rata death rate even lower. It behoves you to avoid ill-considered accusations of confirmation bias when you clearly haven't thought the thing through. Throughout this pandemic I've often thought that your mask advocacy (which borders on the evangelical), along with your excoriating of those who have bothered to look at what little rigorous science there is on mask efficacy, has been tantamount to the precise thing that you're accusing me of. I've been polite enough not to accuse YOU. |
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Subject: RE: BS: New news on the pandemic COVID-19 From: Stilly River Sage Date: 19 Jan 22 - 03:27 PM Sensible to you because of confirmation bias. They may have died of complications brought on by COVID. They may have been dying of something else anyway. Whatever spin you want to put on it, anyone who doesn't treat COVID like the deadly pandemic it is is a fool. |
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Subject: RE: BS: New news on the pandemic COVID-19 From: Steve Shaw Date: 19 Jan 22 - 01:21 PM "359 deaths were reported today, that's people who died within 28 days of a positive test, but some of those may not have died of covid." That was the BBC News bulletin just now. Well that's the first time in almost two years that I've heard that highly sensible and honest caveat after the death numbers announcement. |
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Subject: RE: BS: New news on the pandemic COVID-19 From: Steve Shaw Date: 19 Jan 22 - 01:16 PM A hole is an A hole. |
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Subject: RE: BS: New news on the pandemic COVID-19 From: Donuel Date: 19 Jan 22 - 01:05 PM It figures. Mask holes celebrate at the pandemic peak by going maskless in Virginia too. |
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Subject: RE: BS: New news on the pandemic COVID-19 From: Steve Shaw Date: 19 Jan 22 - 11:20 AM All restrictions lifted here by next Wednesday. No more bloody masks. Wahoooo! |
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Subject: RE: BS: New news on the pandemic COVID-19 From: Stilly River Sage Date: 19 Jan 22 - 10:22 AM Recently I've had two friends make informed decisions about their activity (stay home, not be around vulnerable family members) and to get to a clinic for attention when their home tests showed positive. When you think about it, even if your test isn't positive, if you're not feeling good you probably SHOULDN'T go amongst other people, giving them your cold or flu. So perhaps people are giving consideration to spreading whatever they have with the presence of the ability to test. |
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Subject: RE: BS: New news on the pandemic COVID-19 From: SPB-Cooperator Date: 19 Jan 22 - 09:02 AM We have had free home LTF test kits here for a long time now, but our government is making noises about ending it. Possibly on the basis if less people test, then less people will have covid!!!! Home LTF tests help people make informed decisions about wheter to socialise, or go to work, but I am sure tory funders would rather have their entire workforces infected, and any deaths is a price worth paying in terms of the companies profits. Such is the value of human life. |
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Subject: RE: BS: New news on the pandemic COVID-19 From: gillymor Date: 19 Jan 22 - 06:07 AM Thanks, Stilly. I just ordered mine, took less than a minute. |
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Subject: RE: BS: New news on the pandemic COVID-19 From: Stilly River Sage Date: 18 Jan 22 - 04:15 PM Good news! The new site launched (www.covidtests.gov) a day early and it hasn't crashed. And what's more, it is simply a redirect through the US Digital Service to the US Postal Service who take the information and will be shipping the four free tests. This Digital Service was built after the Affordable Care Act rollout was such a catastrophe. We have to see how the delivery works (that's the part where DeJoy has an influence after he mangled things and still hasn't been replaced by the board of governors). And this is per household - fine for me, but for more than one or two people, inadequate. They're going to have to ramp up pretty quickly. New York Times: The Biden administration’s new website to order at-home virus tests goes live, a day early. |
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Subject: RE: BS: New news on the pandemic COVID-19 From: Stilly River Sage Date: 18 Jan 22 - 02:33 PM Nigel, that vaccine was tested in India and is now being made for distribution in India by Indian companies, but it can be launched world wide. There is nothing tentative about it, and it comes without a patent. I posted an article about that on January 6, 2022. |
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Subject: RE: BS: New news on the pandemic COVID-19 From: Nigel Parsons Date: 18 Jan 22 - 12:40 PM MGoH: Here is a very encouraging story in todays Observer. Texas scientists’ new Covid-19 vaccine is cheaper, easier to make and patent-fre And good to see a reminder that there are some great people doinggreat things in Texas. On reading the article it gives the lie to "is cheaper, easier to make, and patent free" It may become each of those things, the facts say that "it is still in development", and "they do not intend to patent it". Much can happen between now and when/if it becomes a proven, effective, vaccine. |
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Subject: RE: BS: New news on the pandemic COVID-19 From: Mrrzy Date: 18 Jan 22 - 08:31 AM I have seen reports they've found genes involved in whether you'll lose your sense of smell. |
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Subject: RE: BS: New news on the pandemic COVID-19 From: Stilly River Sage Date: 17 Jan 22 - 12:51 PM Contact tracing is for after the fact. I know of one that might be coming up - the man is the son of an elderly friend of mine. She now lives with him as they plan about moving to an adults only retirement community (when she will again have her own space). She tested positive yesterday, but he just got on a jet from Dallas to Hawaii. I was told he and his boyfriend have "super filtering masks" but he was exposed, and even with his testing negative the day before the flight letting him board the plane, his 87 year old mother is home alone with COVID. She has had shots and boosters, but they were exposed together and she should be taken for the Regeneron or whatever monoclonal antibody treatment. He could in theory get the treatment also. I was researching information about reusing the high-end N95 masks for another thread and will post that here also. It was out of curiosity that I started looking, after speculating about how the everyday homeowner might manage to more or less autoclave masks to keep using them. I found a study that looks into this home heating technique with convection oven. Skimming it and skipping to the bottom, it looks like the ovens had a liquid source for higher humidity and that the tests had a lot to do with how well the masks fit after being treated in a convection oven. A scalable method of applying heat and humidity for decontamination of N95 respirators during the COVID-19 crisis. From June 2020, so ages ago. This article (from November, 2020) says dry heat can be used to decontaminate FDA allows dry heat treatment for single-user mask reuse (from that article comes this: The use of dry heat to reduce bioburden is only intended to supplement existing single-user reuse recommendations from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), such as storing a used N95 mask in a breathable paper bag for a minimum of 5 days between each use, according to the FDA. So maybe just putting the mask away for a few days? Here is one that is quite bizarre - putting the mask in a paper bag inside a pressure cooker (with liquid? with the weight on top?) in the oven. How to Disinfect Your Mask: A Step-by-Step Guide is from June 2020. And it sounds like some of them can be washed in water - a combination of treatments may turn up in a scholarly journal if I keep looking. |
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Subject: RE: BS: New news on the pandemic COVID-19 From: McGrath of Harlow Date: 17 Jan 22 - 12:20 PM I note that the official death total for the UK favoured by this government is 150,000, while the lead statistical agency puts it at 175,000. Both figures are based on different ways of calculating the total. It is interesting that the government chooses to rely on a method that provides a lower total. And completely predictable. The excess death rate is a better guide to the true impact of the pandemic, since it includes deaths which were not directly caused by Covid but which would not have been likely to happen if there had been no pandemic. And that would give a higher total than either of the above figures. Not a very impressive record whichever way you count it. |
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Subject: RE: BS: New news on the pandemic COVID-19 From: Donuel Date: 17 Jan 22 - 08:59 AM Ugh, A reimbursment plan for tests is what is in the works for providing 'free tests' by the government. crap... more paperwork and delay. An omnicynic would of course be suspect of death reports no matter what the varient. Cynics should put the lid back on the paint thinner when they hold almost every damn thing suspect ;^/ I think I am looking at Feb 15th for a 4th booster at the latest and this week for the soonest. There is no lack of confusion regarding pandemic decisions. What I have noticed is that the actual vaccine providers do not want to be held respondsible for witholding vaccine but some may have an agenda, we shall see. |
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Subject: RE: BS: New news on the pandemic COVID-19 From: SPB-Cooperator Date: 17 Jan 22 - 07:13 AM I have just been contract traced - seems that somoene tested positive on my flight home and in spite of paying £16 for a day to test (negative result), I still need to take LFTs for the next 7 days. So what was the point of forking out for the day 2 test? At least I do not have to self isolate. |
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Subject: RE: BS: New news on the pandemic COVID-19 From: Allan Conn Date: 17 Jan 22 - 02:36 AM Steve is spot on in that the number that makes the most sense and are less open to how they are collated etc are the excess deaths. The authorities collate the figures in three ways and all are published on the BBC site every day. If you look at the figures for Scotland compared to the UK as a whole then there is a wide variation on the comparisons dependent on what figures you use. For the Deaths after 28 days of a positive test then Scotland makes up 6.6% of UK deaths; if you look at causes on the death certificate then it is 7.19%; and if you look at excess deaths in total then it is 8.2%. Quite a variation!! I'd think the obvious one to go on is the excess deaths which shows the impact on Scotland compared to the UK. |
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Subject: RE: BS: New news on the pandemic COVID-19 From: McGrath of Harlow Date: 16 Jan 22 - 07:40 PM I'd put more trust in the death count of the medical estimates than in hunches, however humble. If the figures were being manipulated by this government, I'm sure they'd much prefer to do that in a way that helped them declare that the death rate had gone right down, and the whole nasty business with Covid was done and dusted. |
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Subject: RE: BS: New news on the pandemic COVID-19 From: Stilly River Sage Date: 16 Jan 22 - 03:21 PM Those who get COVID and end up hospitalized tend to show up as deaths 21 days later. The time reflects fighting the virus and the SIDE EFFECTS of it. That 21-day lag time is noted on many of the charts showing the growth of COVID this winter, though it doesn't mean that you suffer for 21 days before dying. Here in the US people are double-masking now, going to the high-end N95 masks, and figuring out how to reuse them (there are several recommended ways to disinfect/sterilize those masks.) Hospitals were running them through autoclaves in 2020, now individuals are figuring out how to do something similar to save the expense of the masks. Types of Masks and Respirators (from CDC) The word is (it was well known from early on) that the flimsy cloth masks don't work well and with Omicron they shouldn't be used now. Many of the masks I still see in public are commercially produced lightweight ineffective masks. The earliest ones I made had a slit for putting in a paper filter, I stopped making those fairly soon and shifted to the heavy filtering of the three-layer flannel (inside) 3-D masks. Now those need to go over another surgical or KN95-level mask. |
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Subject: RE: BS: New news on the pandemic COVID-19 From: Steve Shaw Date: 16 Jan 22 - 02:17 PM The deaths-from-covid numbers are very suspect in m'humble. "Within 28 days of a positive test" simply doesn't make sense when the disease lasts for far less time than that in most people. The death numbers that make at least some sense are the ones which tell us the number of deaths in excess of what is expected for the season in question. Even those numbers can be confounded by factors such as fluctuating flu numbers and spells of very cold weather, etc. In addition, the stats we get on the telly every night are replete with spurious accuracy, precisely right down to the last person vaccinated, for example. All numbers are ball-park at best, but they are not presented that way. Think of them as benign propaganda, presented in order to keep us cautious. |
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Subject: RE: BS: New news on the pandemic COVID-19 From: McGrath of Harlow Date: 16 Jan 22 - 01:37 PM I'll still be wearing mine for a while, any time I'm in range of anyone outside my bubble. Dropping precautions right now, while more people are dying every day than you'd get with a huge airliner crashing seems bad timing, especially in a context where Boris Johnson has his back against the wall, and would say and do pretty well anything to fend off his demise. "Let the bodies pile up high"… … Here is a very encouraging story in todays Observer. Texas scientists’ new Covid-19 vaccine is cheaper, easier to make and patent-fre And good to see a reminder that there are some great people doinggreat things in Texas. |
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Subject: RE: BS: New news on the pandemic COVID-19 From: Steve Shaw Date: 16 Jan 22 - 06:19 AM Negative again this morning. I needed to run the test because I'm off to a funeral in what will be a crowded village church. Could be that masks etc., will all be dropped next week Alleluja! |
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Subject: RE: BS: New news on the pandemic COVID-19 From: SPB-Cooperator Date: 16 Jan 22 - 05:44 AM Just got a negative test (day2) after returning from sunny Prague. Feeling grotty with the worst cold I have had for over three years. I do not need to isolate but on the other hand, can't face going out for a day or two. |
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Subject: RE: BS: New news on the pandemic COVID-19 From: Steve Shaw Date: 15 Jan 22 - 06:08 PM I'm fine, thanks. |
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Subject: RE: BS: New news on the pandemic COVID-19 From: Mrrzy Date: 15 Jan 22 - 04:58 PM I heard that too. Feel better soon, Steve Shaw! |
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Subject: RE: BS: New news on the pandemic COVID-19 From: Nigel Parsons Date: 15 Jan 22 - 04:30 PM Just to clarify Donuel's comment: The WHO (World Health Organisation) say that it is too early to treat Coronavirus as endemic. Here 4 days ago |
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Subject: RE: BS: New news on the pandemic COVID-19 From: Donuel Date: 15 Jan 22 - 06:50 AM WHO warns to not treat Covid as endemic. |
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Subject: RE: BS: New news on the pandemic COVID-19 From: Stilly River Sage Date: 14 Jan 22 - 04:14 PM The New York Times had a story about a particular rapid test called BinaxNOW from Abbott Laboratories that detects about 95% of the cases of Omicron. Other rapid tests are less accurate. And this article was helpful: Which Covid Test Should I Get? When Should I Test? What If I Can’t Find One? Answers About Testing and Omicron. Much of the getting supplies part applies to the US, of course, but some of the information should be globally helpful. |
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Subject: RE: BS: New news on the pandemic COVID-19 From: McGrath of Harlow Date: 14 Jan 22 - 03:30 PM So far so good for my family. Though my disabled daughter who lives nearby had a Covid test show up positive she never developed any serious symptoms. And none of us hadany adverse reactions to the various jabs we've had. And we've had no problems getting the tests. Half the time with the government site it's just been a matter of tap my NHS number and a kit turns up a day or so later, the other half they've run out, and there's a code to use at a local chemist to get a kit. Though sometimes they've run out, but they always seem to get them in the next day. I wish other things connected with public services worked as well. … I see that in Canada, they've come up with a wheeze that if you aren't duly vaccinated you can't patronise your local cannabis store. That's the way to do it… I'm afraid I'm getting rather authoritarian about the public menaces who refuse to get vaccinated, and then get Covid and take up beds in hospital that stop other people getting treatment they need. Solidarity! |
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Subject: RE: BS: New news on the pandemic COVID-19 From: Donuel Date: 13 Jan 22 - 02:21 PM Thank Steven Colbert, he mentioned it last night. Its good to know TX keeps you and Willy Nelson suffiently supplied. |
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Subject: RE: BS: New news on the pandemic COVID-19 From: gillymor Date: 13 Jan 22 - 10:34 AM Thanks for that link to the OSU study, Donuel. I mostly use hemp products that are high in THC but I'll have to look into those other cannabinoids. |
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Subject: RE: BS: New news on the pandemic COVID-19 From: Steve Shaw Date: 13 Jan 22 - 09:58 AM I still have my sniffly, headachey symptoms and I'm feeling under the weather. A test this morning, my third this week, was negative. Good to know you can still catch ordinary colds! |
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Subject: RE: BS: New news on the pandemic COVID-19 From: Donuel Date: 13 Jan 22 - 09:53 AM No doubt about it Jeri, when vaccinated people have obvious symptoms of omicron they feel like absolute crap for a week. The week after has a run down quality. I have been tested but once so I don't know if I dodged this dirt clod or not. We're all winging this together with a certain feeling of confusion, hope and dread. Fauci said we're all going to get some form of this cold. This is by no means an incentive to deliberately expose ourselves. ...Some do, some don't, for some its just as well. |
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Subject: RE: BS: New news on the pandemic COVID-19 From: Jeri Date: 13 Jan 22 - 08:53 AM I have a friend who had it. Her kid brought it home, and the whole family got it. She said it was like a bad cold. She'd been double-vaxed, no booster. The whole family had been, but they're all fine and over it. Of course, when it comes to my friend, she may be down-playing the severity. |
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Subject: RE: BS: New news on the pandemic COVID-19 From: Donuel Date: 13 Jan 22 - 08:45 AM https://www.forbes.com/sites/ajherrington/2022/01/11/study-finds-cannabis-compounds-prevent-infection-by-covid-19-virus/?sh=7a09 |
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Subject: RE: BS: New news on the pandemic COVID-19 From: Donuel Date: 13 Jan 22 - 06:28 AM This is the obvious that we know but is worth recording for the record. These are record breaking weeks of infection. Covid is the leading cause of death for the Police, and a 9 year low of violent death. Missisippi kids are only 5% vaccinated, nursing home infection is at its all time high, food stores are often depleted with staffing problems are 50% down BUT there are indications the peak has been reached like waste water tests in Boston and the stress on hospitals is leveling. A million infections a day was approached and can't go much higher. Odds are less than 50 50 you get it but the symptoms are 0 to a week of awful flu symptoms without a need for hospitalization. The unvaccinated die less often than last year but can still die of COVID. The Stevie Wonder song comes to mind over the vax controversies, SUPERSTITION |
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Subject: RE: BS: New news on the pandemic COVID-19 From: Donuel Date: 12 Jan 22 - 12:52 PM A major traffic jam in my two lane neighborhood is caused by thousands of cars trying to get into the Library for free Covid test kits today. |
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Subject: RE: BS: New news on the pandemic COVID-19 From: Mrrzy Date: 12 Jan 22 - 11:51 AM Sighted people don't all have smart phones either. The US has more vaccine dissidents than anywhere, I think. Goes right along with the gun deaths imo, we Murricans haz rights, y'all over the pond or anywhere else seem to remember your responsibilities... |
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Subject: RE: BS: New news on the pandemic COVID-19 From: Stilly River Sage Date: 12 Jan 22 - 11:33 AM This morning I read a NY Times article about the lack of rapid tests for the blind here in the US. Apparently the UK is out ahead of this testing problem. There is an app here for smart phones, but blind people don't all have smart phones. |
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Subject: RE: New nonsense on the pandemic COVID-19 From: Donuel Date: 12 Jan 22 - 10:39 AM Some people are betting that this omicron is the varient to catch for their immune system to make antibodies. They ignore long haul risks and a lack of knowledge. What if...what about...this just in from twitter...Imagine...in a perfect world...Facebook sez...God declares...there could be...1 out of 10 doctors agree... that a varient so deadly the virus commits suicide by killing 99% of humans in 6 hours where transmission finally ends with 66 million global survivors who are the very ones who did not catch Omicron>? This virus business is so fluid we just might get it all wrong from time to time... What do you mean its already plagued by misinformation about misinformation? |
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Subject: RE: BS: New news on the pandemic COVID-19 From: Jon Freeman Date: 12 Jan 22 - 08:21 AM The online system for getting tests is working for me now. One pack came in the post today and I've ordered another. I'll try to get the 3 of us tested this evening. I won't need to the nose swabbing (no throat sample needed with the kit I received) for others but I don't think dad would be able to follow the instructions and he would probably also have difficulty handling the bits. I'm not that sure about mum either but we'll do hers together and see where we go from there. |
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Subject: RE: BS: New news on the pandemic COVID-19 From: Steve Shaw Date: 12 Jan 22 - 07:30 AM Many unvaccinated people have now been persuaded to get the jab. Sure, some have been persuaded by threats to their jobs in the health and care sector. Many have been persuaded by the publicity around the infectivity of omicron and the efficacy of the boosters against it. That kind of publicity, together with making the unvaccinated see that general life could become inconvenient for them, is the way forward in my view. We have far, far fewer vaccine dissidents (per capita) than the US. Your point falls. |
