BS: Brexit & other UK political topics

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit & other UK political topics
From: The Sandman
Date: 16 Dec 20 - 06:35 AM

jos, well that is a good reason for getting vaccinated i would have thought. . i wanted to hear from the people who contribute to this thread

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit & other UK political topics
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 16 Dec 20 - 06:57 AM

”There is no certainty that getting vaccinated will prevent you catching the disease or passing it to others.
If you get vaccinated it should prevent you ending up in hospital, which will mean the health service can treat more cancer patients and replace more hips and knees.”

Jos, that’s pretty much my layman’s understanding of vaccination, and seems a good reason to get it when it becomes available for my age-group/health situation.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit & other UK political topics
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 16 Dec 20 - 07:27 AM

Vaccines work by promoting antibody reaction in the body, just as catching the disease does. Whilst we are still in the short-term, the fact that there have been extremely few documented cases of catching it more than once (and you don't necessarily have to believe every single one, as some people just love to be special), it seems that immunity lasts at least for a good few months, if not longer. Another thing is that the vaccines appear to promote a stronger immune response than catching the disease. The issue of what exactly the vaccine does or doesn't do is something that applies to many, if not most or all, vaccines. We can't carry on living life in that worrying way. Have the vaccine when it's your turn then relax just somewhat.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit & other UK political topics
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 16 Dec 20 - 07:43 AM

”Have the vaccine when it's your turn then relax just somewhat”

That’s my policy. Thanks Steve.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit & other UK political topics
From: DMcG
Date: 16 Dec 20 - 08:40 AM

”Have the vaccine when it's your turn then relax just somewhat”

Mine is to have the vaccine, but not really to relax somewhat. That will only come when the level of vaccinated people is above perhaps 50% or we find the vaccine does significantly reduce the likelihood you are a carrier. (Which my best guess it that it will, but let's await evidence.)

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit & other UK political topics
From: punkfolkrocker
Date: 16 Dec 20 - 10:18 AM

I'm between 60 and 65..

A kinda no mans land waiting room...

It's going to be a very anxious over cautious long time in the queue for my vaccine,
while the tories are forcing my 'over 50s' wife
to teach potentially increasingly infectious school kids every working day...

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit & other UK political topics
From: Stilly River Sage
Date: 16 Dec 20 - 10:46 AM

You need more like 70% vaccinated to create the kind of "herd immunity" that has been established for measles and other diseases. That discussion is making the rounds now in the US - how many vaccinated before the social distancing requirements and such can expire.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit & other UK political topics
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 16 Dec 20 - 11:12 AM

It seems sensible to me to keep social-distancing, hand-washing, and mask-wearing (sorry Steve, I’m a belt, braces and pieces of string below the knees kinda guy!) even after vaccination. I’m 73 and diabetic, and I’m taking no chances.

The usual disclaimers apply......IMHO, YMMV etc.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit & other UK political topics
From: DMcG
Date: 16 Dec 20 - 11:21 AM

You need more like 70% vaccinated to create the kind of "herd immunity" ....

I agree, Silly, and it may be more of a problem in the US than the UK (but it could be bad enough here): What do you do if you can get to 50-60% vaccination and then cannot really increase the level further because of anti-vaxxers and the like? Also, it is important to remember that there is probably 5-10% who can't take the vaccine even if they want to, like those with immune system problems.

I would certainly prefer us to get to maybe 70% before relaxing at all, but if the resistance to people taking the vaccine is high enough, I might have to relax before that.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit & other UK political topics
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 16 Dec 20 - 12:20 PM

Both you and Maggie haven't quite got this right. Herd immunity for measles requires at least 92 in every hundred people to be immune. We've had outbreaks in the UK when the number has dropped into the 80s. Fortunately, immunity is long-lived. The threshold for flu is much lower. For certain childhood diseases, such as whooping cough, the overall population threshold isn't a great way of looking at it: it's far more important that children and young parents have the highest percentages, as they overwhelmingly are the children's most frequent contacts. Another factor is that herd immunity can diminish over a short time if (as we might suspect for coronavirus, though we don't yet know) immunity is short-lived or lost as people age with a consequent weakening of their immune system. I wouldn't be hanging your hopes on that 70% number if I were you. That's about the median figure of the estimates, but that figure may well be confounded by interventions such as lockdowns and shielding, both of which, for very good reasons, artificially keep the transmission rate down, thereby extending the time it will take for herd immunity to kick in.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit & other UK political topics
From: DMcG
Date: 16 Dec 20 - 12:39 PM

I am not relying on the 70% figure, Steve. Back in March, according the oracle that is "The Daily Mail" Sir Patrick Vallance said around 60 per cent of the population will need to catch the virus to build up a national tolerance strong enough to stop the virus circulating. I am sure I could find similar reporting from other papers. but that is the one that came up first. It may be 60%. It may be 70%, it may be 93%, or 43%: we really have very little way of knowing yet. Until we have at least one substantial community with widespread infection or vaccination you are essentially trying to estimate where a curve 'flattens off' while you are still on a piece with a high gradient.

But I was really trying to make a different point. It was if you need to have a certain level to achieve herd immunity, what do you do when, for whatever reason, you cannot get to that percentage? That will require a judgement call at some time.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit & other UK political topics
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 16 Dec 20 - 01:34 PM

Unfortunately, we can't rely on flattening or plummeting curves to predict herd immunity: we had both in the summer, remember. Assuming that immunity lasts at least a few months once you've had the virus (unsafe, but hey), and that the vaccine stalls transmission as well as preventing illness (unsafe, but hey), and that restrictions help to keep the reinfection rate low (more likely than not but not settled science), we could see a sharp tailing-off of cases in the next few months. I'm up for hanging on to that one...

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit & other UK political topics
From: DMcG
Date: 17 Dec 20 - 03:03 AM

That's a somewhat different thing, Steve. It is a bit like the difference between sin(x) and sin^-1(x). We would not trying to work out what the herd immunity threshold (HIT) is from the R, as we have to at the moment, where

HIT= 1 - 1/R₀

That is really difficult because R₀ has to be estimated from all the local R values which vary across the country and are affected by policies like tiers and lockdowns. That reciprocal also means quite a small change in the R value can have a large change in the HIT, which is why we cannot be very certain what the range of the percentage for herd immunity is.

Rather, we are working from the opposite end: given we have a certain level of immunity (via infections and vaccines), what effect is that having on R?

It is admittedly a little over 40 years since I worked on this sort of stuff, but as far as I can tell the fundamental modelling hasn't changed that much.   In those days we had to model essentially a population and now the modelling is more based on large numbers of interacting populations, so that adds a lot of variation and sophistication I haven't worked with at all, but the heart of modelling does seem to be similar.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit & other UK political topics
From: Rain Dog
Date: 17 Dec 20 - 03:34 AM

You just need to ensure that you mingle with the right herd.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit & other UK political topics
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 17 Dec 20 - 09:28 AM

We are still dealing with a mass of uncertainties here. Other factors, of which we know not a lot, are the longevity of the virus in the environment, and how "catching" it is (to be a bit less technical than you). We need mass vaccination and we need to be bloody tough on vaccine refusers. The herd immunity calculations can come later.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit & other UK political topics
From: The Sandman
Date: 17 Dec 20 - 10:29 AM

however not avoiding paying tax ensures that the government cannot afford to pay nurses more money, there is a shortage of nurses right now paying more money to nurses might ensure less people die,   Croydon DOG WITH 3 LEGS think he is giving helpful advice, but his tax advice is entirely for selfish people, typical of the present conservative administration.
why is NHS underfunded, not enough tax payers money, undoubtedly i will be called a childish idiot by the usual suspects,but what i am advocating is patriotic in the best sense of the word

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit & other UK political topics
From: The Sandman
Date: 18 Dec 20 - 02:52 AM

then there is the owner of the daily mail, viscount harmsworth, a tax exile, he is responsible indirectly along with people who show how to avoid tax, for the underfunding of the nhs and the lack of nurses.it is like long distance manslaughter

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit & other UK political topics
From: robomatic
Date: 18 Dec 20 - 09:21 PM

Brexit: The Teabag Analogy

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit & other UK political topics
From: The Sandman
Date: 18 Dec 20 - 10:38 PM

thats very good robomatic

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit & other UK political topics
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 20 Dec 20 - 12:56 PM

Did anyone else hear Bozzer on the box yesterday saying this government had always followed medical advice? Maybe I imagined it. Surely not even he could lie so blatantly.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit & other UK political topics
From: The Sandman
Date: 21 Dec 20 - 02:27 AM

now the squit has really hit the fan , anyone know much about the new variant of covid in the uk

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit & other UK political topics
From: The Sandman
Date: 21 Dec 20 - 03:04 AM

dave i dont think boris know the differnce between lies and truth, is it possible he is a psychopath

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit & other UK political topics
From: DMcG
Date: 21 Dec 20 - 04:59 AM

anyone know much about the new variant of covid in the uk

I don't think anyone in the general public does yet, Sandman. All we know is that it is easier to catch (which means its R value is much higher, which means it will double in much less time.) But beyond that, there is little information.

I feel unhappily confident that a national lockdown will be needed by the end of January at the latest. Although France and other countries are saying the halt of lorries etc is for 48 hours I very much doubt it. The 48 hours is merely to work out what to do and will be followed by a longer blockade either in total or for less essential goods. So we might find foodstuffs, for example, much less readily available than we are used to.

Moreover, I expect such blockades to spread. Other countries do not want the new strain, and I think many will take similar actions on passenger flights, for example. Goods are rather less of an issue simply because fewer people are moving into and out of the UK.

The essential difference between New Zealand, Asia and much of the rest of the southern hemisphere when compared to the UK and the rest of Europe, is that they took it very seriously on day 1 and we did not. I get the impression Europe is attempting to learn that lesson with the new strain. Whether they can do so effectively while the old strain is still active is another matter, but it looks like they are trying.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit & other UK political topics
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 21 Dec 20 - 06:23 AM

While I am sure that what they say about the new variant being more virulent is true, I am not convinced that it is the sole cause of rapid spread in London and the SE. They have known about the mutation since September and it is already elsewhere in the UK. Surely keeping the area in tier 2 when it was obvious more restrictions were warranted has a lot to do with it. Keeping London out of lockdown was a political decision and now that has come to bite them on the bum they are looking for excuses.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit & other UK political topics
From: DMcG
Date: 21 Dec 20 - 06:54 AM

Just a minor correction to that Dave, since one of the scientists I was   listening to made the same slip and then carefully corrected himself: the new strain is not technically more virulent (as far as we know) because that refers to how damaging it is when you get it. It is, however, more easily transmitted.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit & other UK political topics
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 21 Dec 20 - 10:31 AM

Thanks, Dave. Better coming from you than Nigel ;-)

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit & other UK political topics
From: DMcG
Date: 21 Dec 20 - 12:02 PM

My ambitions are not so lofty!

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit & other UK political topics
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 21 Dec 20 - 01:48 PM

Boris: We are having Christmas. It would be inhuman not to.

Scientists: We can't really, the NHS would melt down in January.

Boris: Oh, shit. How can I back out now then?

Scientists: Well, there is a new varient that transmits quicker..

Boris: Yes, yes! We'll use that excuse.

Political advisers: Errrr, we are not sure that is a good id....

Boris: Course it is. I can't see anything wrong with it. Sorry nation.?? I have had news. We have a super spreading virus and have to shut everything.

Macron: Is that right, Boris?

Boris: Yes, it is. We are sooooo contagious I had no choice but to cancel Christmas.

Macron (and the rest of the EU): In that case we have to shut all our borders.

Boris: oh fu....

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit & other UK political topics
From: DMcG
Date: 24 Dec 20 - 02:22 AM

So supposedly the deal is done and we will be told something about it in about 50 minutes time. That means now is a good time for rash predictions!

Kipling advised that when meeting Triumph and Disaster to treat those two imposters just the same. I am sure that will apply here. Some will proclaim a great Triumph - not least Boris! - but many more will denounce it as a betrayal, notably Farage and a good proportion of the ERG. Their protests will count for nothing in the short term, since Starmer will whip Labour to vote for it. (He *might* risk a free vote, but I think it extremely unlikely.)

Starmer's speeches in Parliament will all be about how poor a deal it is, how it sells the country short and is almost the worst possible outcome. But no-deal is worse, and that is why he will support the deal. It is a tricky stance, but gives him the best positioning for potential supporters, whether they voted Leave or Remain.

So I don't see the UK voting against the deal.

There is a possibility, maybe even quite a large probability, of an EU country using their veto to stop the deal, but this will largely be posturing to make a political point, and perhaps get more funding from the rest of the EU; I think all the EU states will agree before the year is out.

The deal is actually about trade and security. Of the two, I think the security is more important, but I expect the media to concentrate on the trade aspect. Not that trade is unimportant, but I think any hiatus would be addressed much more quickly than a breakdown in the security relationships.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit & other UK political topics
From: Rain Dog
Date: 24 Dec 20 - 03:24 AM

Don't know about Brexit. Here in Dover we are just waiting for Mendit.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit & other UK political topics
From: The Sandman
Date: 24 Dec 20 - 08:16 AM

what is it like in dover tell us

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit & other UK political topics
From: Rain Dog
Date: 24 Dec 20 - 08:22 AM

Bloody awful. The town is gridlocked with cross channel traffic. Makes it very difficult for vehicles to make their way around town.

26 French firefighters along with 10,000 test kits, arrived early today to help with the backlog.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit & other UK political topics
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 24 Dec 20 - 01:04 PM

God knows why Starmer has committed Labour to vote for this deal. I've just put up with Johnson lying in his teeth about how we've taken back control, etc. We have not. We will abide by EU regulations or suffer if we stray from them. We've lost so much and gained next to nothing. Or nothing at all.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit & other UK political topics
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 24 Dec 20 - 02:21 PM

”God knows why Starmer has committed Labour to vote for this deal”

Because the alternative- No Deal - is simply too dreadful to contemplate? Because, as usual, Johnson had left it until the last minute so that he could claim it’s the best deal available, there was no alternative?

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit & other UK political topics
From: McGrath of Harlow
Date: 24 Dec 20 - 02:46 PM

Boris's heritage - the man who achieved Brexit. And destroyed the United Kingdom.

Should have stuck with Have I Got News for You.

Boris the Bald, very soon now.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit & other UK political topics
From: Rain Dog
Date: 24 Dec 20 - 03:05 PM

We could and should have had a deal months ago. Both sides have a share of the blame for that. Hopefully it will be accepted by all the parties. Of course it would be nice to have some details. The devil is in the detail.

Meanwhile, the police have finally managed to restore some order to the traffic in Dover. Port traffic queuing in just one lane of the one way system, allowing town traffic to move. Still lots queuing on the A20 route into town plus all those at Manston airfield.

Rumours are that the French firemen who arrived to help with testing were seen with fishing rods. You have to keep an eye on them.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit & other UK political topics
From: punkfolkrocker
Date: 24 Dec 20 - 04:03 PM

This morning while waiting for the 'expected' deal to be announced,
I had to nip to the bathroom..

While standing in front of the bog, I let out a squeaky little two tone fart
which surprised me,
because it sounded like my arse just whispered "brex-it"...!!!

Is this an omen...???

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit & other UK political topics
From: peteglasgow
Date: 24 Dec 20 - 06:48 PM

all the best to all the peace campaigners, care workers, homeless, trade unionists, refugees, community activists, environmentalists and tireless anti-racists who keep positivity and hope alive. and, obviously, f**k the rest of you eejits, every one.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit & other UK political topics
From: Donuel
Date: 24 Dec 20 - 07:06 PM

pfr, you just channeled Catspaw.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit & other UK political topics
From: The Sandman
Date: 25 Dec 20 - 03:55 AM

and nobody lived happily ever after

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit & other UK political topics
From: The Sandman
Date: 25 Dec 20 - 04:40 AM

i think crbyn would have done better, however i have only looked superficially, , but it could be a lot worse, has the whole thing been a storm in a teacup.
border at northern ireland ports that is good, from an irish perspective it could be much worse

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit & other UK political topics
From: Bonzo3legs
Date: 25 Dec 20 - 06:20 AM

And a merrie Christemas!!!

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit & other UK political topics
From: Raggytash
Date: 25 Dec 20 - 07:08 AM

I think the line "peace on earth and good will to all men" needs an airing!

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit & other UK political topics
From: Donuel
Date: 25 Dec 20 - 08:38 AM

At least Brexit has made the UK think more about globalism and how to apply it or not on a case by case basis. Overall its been a pain in the arse.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit & other UK political topics
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 27 Dec 20 - 02:59 AM

Ave we got are cuntry back yet?

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit & other UK political topics
From: The Sandman
Date: 27 Dec 20 - 03:46 AM

no your country is owned by the multinationals and the land owning aristocracy including the church of england

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit & other UK political topics
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 27 Dec 20 - 06:31 AM

Provoked by someone I heard on Broadcasting House this morning (as I always like to own up to being unoriginal), I'd say that when you hear what a great trade deal we've achieved, it's worth remembering that in order to get it we had to ditch a much better trade deal, the one called "being a member of the EU."

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit & other UK political topics
From: Bonzo3legs
Date: 27 Dec 20 - 09:01 AM

"i think crbyn would have done better"

And for your next joke!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit & other UK political topics
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 27 Dec 20 - 11:01 AM

Good opinion piece from Will Hutton in The Observer

Yes, it is opinion. It also happens to be mainly true. The opening shot is particularly painful

The dream is over. On New Year’s Day, the curtain comes down on Britain’s long engagement with Europe’s noblest and greatest effort at collaboration and liberty. Our freedoms are to be slashed and an immense bureaucracy imposed on us. Next Friday Britons will lose the freedom to live, work, and trade in goods and services as they choose throughout the EU. Once natural rights are to be torched.

I can do little but shake my head in disbelief and curse those who brought us to this :-(

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit & other UK political topics
From: Rain Dog
Date: 27 Dec 20 - 12:06 PM

Yeah but Mr Will Hutton,apart from that things are not to bad.

It will be a good few years before we will be able to judge if we are better or worse for leaving the EU. I thought maybe 5 years but now it will probably be longer due to the huge financial problems as a result of covid.

I voted to remain and I have never been convinced that there are going to be huge financial benefits to our leaving. We will have to see once things settle down.

Yet again he cannot let the vote go. The many ways in which people like to count it.Labour let that genie out of the bottle in 1975, not forgetting that we nearly always end up with a government which the majority of the country have not voted for.