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BS: How low can it go? (USD question)

GUEST,SueB 21 Nov 04 - 01:56 PM
GUEST,heric 21 Nov 04 - 02:34 PM
McGrath of Harlow 21 Nov 04 - 03:26 PM
Mooh 21 Nov 04 - 04:14 PM
GUEST,SueB 21 Nov 04 - 04:27 PM
Peace 21 Nov 04 - 04:33 PM
Peace 21 Nov 04 - 04:43 PM
McGrath of Harlow 21 Nov 04 - 05:17 PM
GUEST 21 Nov 04 - 05:59 PM
GUEST,heric 21 Nov 04 - 06:04 PM
Little Hawk 21 Nov 04 - 06:29 PM
Peace 21 Nov 04 - 06:35 PM
Peace 21 Nov 04 - 06:38 PM
Shanghaiceltic 21 Nov 04 - 06:42 PM
McGrath of Harlow 21 Nov 04 - 07:16 PM
Sorcha 21 Nov 04 - 07:22 PM
artbrooks 21 Nov 04 - 07:48 PM
GUEST,SueB 21 Nov 04 - 08:44 PM
The Fooles Troupe 21 Nov 04 - 09:24 PM
Bobert 21 Nov 04 - 10:05 PM
The Fooles Troupe 21 Nov 04 - 10:14 PM
dick greenhaus 22 Nov 04 - 01:25 AM
GUEST,heric 22 Nov 04 - 01:35 AM
Shanghaiceltic 22 Nov 04 - 07:58 PM
dianavan 22 Nov 04 - 08:30 PM
Peg 22 Nov 04 - 08:56 PM
Cluin 22 Nov 04 - 10:39 PM
dianavan 22 Nov 04 - 11:47 PM
GUEST,Garydon 23 Nov 04 - 05:43 PM
Richard Bridge 23 Nov 04 - 06:36 PM
Shanghaiceltic 23 Nov 04 - 07:13 PM
GUEST,petr 23 Nov 04 - 08:06 PM
Little Hawk 23 Nov 04 - 08:27 PM
GUEST,heric 23 Nov 04 - 09:57 PM
GUEST,heric 23 Nov 04 - 10:58 PM
dianavan 23 Nov 04 - 11:11 PM
GUEST,donuel 24 Nov 04 - 01:08 AM
GUEST,SueB 26 Nov 04 - 03:43 AM
Little Hawk 26 Nov 04 - 10:13 AM
GUEST,SueB 26 Nov 04 - 12:23 PM
Little Hawk 27 Nov 04 - 12:46 AM
GUEST,Frank 27 Nov 04 - 11:14 AM
GUEST,SueB 28 Nov 04 - 12:41 AM
dianavan 28 Nov 04 - 01:04 AM
Donuel 17 Mar 08 - 09:30 AM
Mrs.Duck 17 Mar 08 - 05:06 PM
GUEST,Jack the Sailor 17 Mar 08 - 05:30 PM
McGrath of Harlow 17 Mar 08 - 06:18 PM
The Fooles Troupe 17 Mar 08 - 11:45 PM
Joe_F 18 Mar 08 - 09:25 PM
Mark Ross 19 Mar 08 - 03:04 PM

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Subject: BS: How low can it go? (USD question)
From: GUEST,SueB
Date: 21 Nov 04 - 01:56 PM

On Friday, the Euro posted an historical high against the dollar - (1 Euro = 1.3074 USD). Any thoughts? Can we run down the dollar indefinitely?


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Subject: RE: BS: How low can it go? (USD question)
From: GUEST,heric
Date: 21 Nov 04 - 02:34 PM

One person's prediction (in the New York Times this weekend, I think), said that it could fall 40%. Of course he probably said that to get quoted, but sttill, since a fall preceded the massive interest rates of the 70's, I intend to immediately abandon the adjstable mortgae that has served me so well for fifteen years.


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Subject: RE: BS: How low can it go? (USD question)
From: McGrath of Harlow
Date: 21 Nov 04 - 03:26 PM

Well, once upon a time a dollar was worth five shillings, four to the pound sterling(in fact it was still normal practice to refer to five shillings as "a dollar" right up until shillings were abolished in 1971, though the US dollar was worth a good bit more than that by then.

That would be about three dollars to he Euro. So it's got some way to go.


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Subject: RE: BS: How low can it go? (USD question)
From: Mooh
Date: 21 Nov 04 - 04:14 PM

I dunno, par with the $1 Cdn? Mooh.


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Subject: RE: BS: How low can it go? (USD question)
From: GUEST,SueB
Date: 21 Nov 04 - 04:27 PM

Isn't there some point at which, with the skyrocketing cost of oil and the resulting higher price of export goods, the EU can't support so much Euro strength? In '71, of course, there wasn't such a thing as a Euro, but what effect did that kind of dollar weakness have on the economies of the UK and Switzerland? I appreciate the historical perspective, since I've only recently begun to follow the ups and downs of the currency market, and there seem to be such a lot of factors to be weighed. Heric's post suggests that history may be repeating itself?


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Subject: RE: BS: How low can it go? (USD question)
From: Peace
Date: 21 Nov 04 - 04:33 PM

I don't know that history repeats itself so much as historians repeat each other.

There are always fluctuations in world money prices. The US is struggling with its economy. No question about that. There have been years of debt and market manipulation; that has wounded the so-called middle class and its ability to absorb the punishment on behalf of the waelthy. The bubble is very near breaking, and we will see a Depression to rival that of the early 1980s. That's what happens when crooks run countries.


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Subject: RE: BS: How low can it go? (USD question)
From: Peace
Date: 21 Nov 04 - 04:43 PM

In answer to your question: It can get to zero. That's the record.


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Subject: RE: BS: How low can it go? (USD question)
From: McGrath of Harlow
Date: 21 Nov 04 - 05:17 PM

Having it low help you export more and import less. Should be quite helpful for you.


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Subject: RE: BS: How low can it go? (USD question)
From: GUEST
Date: 21 Nov 04 - 05:59 PM


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Subject: RE: BS: How low can it go? (USD question)
From: GUEST,heric
Date: 21 Nov 04 - 06:04 PM

That was me above (this new Roadrunner program is too fast for me to handle). Anyway, Sue: I can't add substance; I only know what I read in the papers. It is very interesting, though, as it could have major impact. Good free sites to check for preliminary info and research tips are bloomberg.com and CBS Marketwatch. If you get some good tips (such as whether I should buy my new Honda sooner rather then later), please let us know.


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Subject: RE: BS: How low can it go? (USD question)
From: Little Hawk
Date: 21 Nov 04 - 06:29 PM

It's the lowest against the Canadian dollar now that I can remember. Certainly the lowest in the past decade. One US dollar now equals Cdn $1.19 approximately. That's down from Cdn $1.55 not more than 2 years ago.


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Subject: RE: BS: How low can it go? (USD question)
From: Peace
Date: 21 Nov 04 - 06:35 PM

So, wonder what the Trilateral Commission has been upto recently?


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Subject: RE: BS: How low can it go? (USD question)
From: Peace
Date: 21 Nov 04 - 06:38 PM

"We are grateful to the Washington Post, the New York Times, Time magazine and other great
publications whose directors have attended our meetings and respected the promises of discretion
for almost forty years. It would have been impossible for us to develop our plan for the world if
we had been subject to the bright lights of publicity during those years. But, the world is now more
sophisticated and prepared to march towards a world-government. The supranational sovereignty
of an intellectual elite and world bankers is surely preferable to the National autodetermination
practiced in past centuries"--David Rockefeller in an address to a Trilateral Commission meeting
in June of 1991


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Subject: RE: BS: How low can it go? (USD question)
From: Shanghaiceltic
Date: 21 Nov 04 - 06:42 PM

Over here the Ren Min Bi (Chinese Yuan) is linked via Hong Kong to the US$. That has kept a very stable currency as far as the Chinese are concerned at a rate of about RMB8.26= US$1 for a number of years.

My problem is that the UK Pound is now too strong and I have stiff competition from American products which are now cheaper. Good for the US, bad for me. On the better side my mortgage here is costong less as I convert UK Pounds to US$.

The main problem with the US economy is massive debt in both import and export ratios as well as very high personal debt. US citizens in general do not appear to be good savers.

That combined with high energy prices is going to cause problems for the US.

The war in Iraq will also have to be added to the bill. I cannot remember how long it took to pay off the war in Vietnam but it was a long time and the debt was huge.

The problem for the rest of the world is that a collapse in the US economy could spark a collapse in many other countries economies.

China on the other had has a budget surplus (which the US Govt is complaining about)and is good at biding it's time. A collpase in the US just might leave China as a superpower in economic terms.


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Subject: RE: BS: How low can it go? (USD question)
From: McGrath of Harlow
Date: 21 Nov 04 - 07:16 PM

Here's a page with a graph showing how the dollar has varied against the pound over the years. Most of the time it's been in existance it's been about four dollars to the pound, though it's been as low as ten dollars.


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Subject: RE: BS: How low can it go? (USD question)
From: Sorcha
Date: 21 Nov 04 - 07:22 PM

Then there was Black Friday, Sept. 13, 1929....when the stock market crashed and burned....dollar went down to $0.10.....ten cents on the dollar....


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Subject: RE: BS: How low can it go? (USD question)
From: artbrooks
Date: 21 Nov 04 - 07:48 PM

One dollar US is worth approximately $1...in the States. Saying that the dollar is "weak" is entirely a matter of perspective. From the point of view of monetary policy, this is a good thing if you want to correct our negative balance of trade. It's good for European tourists, so come on over and visit.


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Subject: RE: BS: How low can it go? (USD question)
From: GUEST,SueB
Date: 21 Nov 04 - 08:44 PM

Thanks, McGrath, for the link. That made for some very interesting reading. Shanghaiceltic, I gather that you are engaged in the sale of British exports in China? What kind of goods, if you don't mind enlightening us, and how did you come to be doing this? Would this be a very good time for us all to start learning Chinese as a Second Language?


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Subject: RE: BS: How low can it go? (USD question)
From: The Fooles Troupe
Date: 21 Nov 04 - 09:24 PM

Back in the 80's the Aus Dollar was floated - and the Aus Dollar has been steadily shrinking since then relative to the US dollar. A few years ago, the Aus $ was around 0.85 c to the US $ - I personally won't be worried till it gets up there again...

Robin


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Subject: RE: BS: How low can it go? (USD question)
From: Bobert
Date: 21 Nov 04 - 10:05 PM

Well, strong 'er week, one thing is fir sure... The Chinese and Japanese, who have are bankrollin' the US may get to a point where they say, "Hey, we can't get nuthin' from you folks in exchange fir these things so pay up, in yen, thank you". Then what will happen?

(A big mushroom cloud over China, Bobert?)

Well, I'll tell you what will happen. Bush will nuke them both back into the stone ages...

(No, Bobert, bad answer...)

Well, heck if I know, but off shorin' certainly ain't helping the US. Yeah, it's making cheap stuff for Americans but if we don't have no jobs to pay fir them, what's the purpose...

(Awww, Bobert. There you go with that doom and gloom. Hey, so what if ya' ain't got a job. You still got lots of credit cards, don't ya?)

Well, that's my point. We do have credit cards. Buy now, pay later. Heck, if it's good enough for Bush it's good 'nuff fir me..

Party!!!!!!

Bobert


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Subject: RE: BS: How low can it go? (USD question)
From: The Fooles Troupe
Date: 21 Nov 04 - 10:14 PM

"Would this be a very good time for us all to start learning Chinese as a Second Language?"

Move it higher up your choice scale Matie!   ;-)


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Subject: RE: BS: How low can it go? (USD question)
From: dick greenhaus
Date: 22 Nov 04 - 01:25 AM

Artbrooks-
True--unless you're buying imports. The falling dollar has played merry hell with the US pricing of imported CDs, f'rinstance.


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Subject: RE: BS: How low can it go? (USD question)
From: GUEST,heric
Date: 22 Nov 04 - 01:35 AM

And a dollar ain't a dollar internally either, in times of inflation


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Subject: RE: BS: How low can it go? (USD question)
From: Shanghaiceltic
Date: 22 Nov 04 - 07:58 PM

I have been living permanently in Shanghai for the last 6 years, prior to that I was spending time here and in SE Asia, plus I lived in Japan for two years.

I speak and read Chinese and my Japanese used to be much better.

I have been working for British engineering companies since I left the RN. I specialise in process and industrial instrumentation and calibration.

I have been a $ watcher for many years as it has a direct bearing on the bsuiness I do. Plenty of good US competitors who tend to be more aggresive in business that the average UK company.

When the UK Pound collapsed against the Yen in 1990 (the Euro linking debacle) it was good for the company but not for me. My pay was linked to the pound not set in Yen.

Here is have seen the UK Pound increase in value against the RMB by 50% in 6 years. 10RMB = 1 UKP in 1998 now nearer 15.

The US wants the Chinese to revalue their currancy, the Chinese Govt does not. If they did the US balance of payments would get worse in the US not better.

Chinese goods are cheap because the labour is cheap. Other countries in the Far East are worried as they have to compete against China.

And yes learning Chinese might not be a bad idea as I know that within a few years China's position as a world leader in terms of its economic development will rival the US, North America, Europe and many other countries.


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Subject: RE: BS: How low can it go? (USD question)
From: dianavan
Date: 22 Nov 04 - 08:30 PM

I will second that Shanghaiceltic.

The Chinese have it all over North America and Europe. They have a social system that does not require govt. social security (maybe you can confirm this for me). Their children are exceptionally good students and their parents make sure that they know at least one other language. The people work harder and need less. Their medicine is ancient, works well and is readily available. They are very adaptable to change.

They are moving forward at an astounding rate.

d


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Subject: RE: BS: How low can it go? (USD question)
From: Peg
Date: 22 Nov 04 - 08:56 PM

But China contains some of the most polluted cities in the world. There are rural areas where the waterways are so polluted and toxic, the water can't even be safely touched, let alone used for cooking, drinking or washing.

Is that progress?


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Subject: RE: BS: How low can it go? (USD question)
From: Cluin
Date: 22 Nov 04 - 10:39 PM

Is that progress?


Unfortunately, it's coming to be part of the generally accepted definition.


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Subject: RE: BS: How low can it go? (USD question)
From: dianavan
Date: 22 Nov 04 - 11:47 PM

Peg - I wouldn't call it progress but pollution never stopped North America. Look at the damage we've done in the last 200 years or so. Compare that to how long China has been around.

When I say moving forward, I mean moving forward, economically.

d


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Subject: RE: BS: How low can it go? (USD question)
From: GUEST,Garydon
Date: 23 Nov 04 - 05:43 PM

heric. I would go and buy that honda now. As interest rates rise in America, houseing which has has fueled financial growth for a good period of time, will start to fade. The cost of a house will start to come down which is the main source of equity for the middle class. Once the houses and thus equity start to fall inflation will set in. At which time the dollar should stabalize in value around the world. At what level who knows. But, as an example an item will then cost approximatly the same in Ireland as it does in America. After my last trip to Ireland I bought Irish gifts for my family here in America because I could purchase the gift cheaper in america than I could in Ireland, and it was madein Ireland. My mother in law just canceled her trip to Scotland because of the dollar to pound ratio. I was planning on Scotland in 2006 and will waint and see where I go at that time and the dollar value will have much to do with it. Some comments from the side lines

Gary®


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Subject: RE: BS: How low can it go? (USD question)
From: Richard Bridge
Date: 23 Nov 04 - 06:36 PM

Perhaps Marx was right that Capitalism contains the seeds of its own destruction?


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Subject: RE: BS: How low can it go? (USD question)
From: Shanghaiceltic
Date: 23 Nov 04 - 07:13 PM

China might be a Communist country but it is not very socialist when it comes to healthcare.

You have to pay for treatment, it is not free even if you are on a low income. Plus the treatment is very variable depending on what province and city you are in.

I have been inside some hospitals here where I would not have like to have been an in patient. On the other side though there are some very good hospitals combining both Chinese traditional and western medicine.

Average wages are still lass than $100 a month equivalent and if you have no insurance for medical care it means you have to borrow money from friends and relatives. I have been helping out with my mother-in-laws medical bills. She worked for years as a teacher in Xinjiang (a remote province in the west of China) during the Cultural Revolution, she and her husband found a way of returning to Shanghai, but becuase they did this there is no support medically for them, had they stayed in Xinjiang then it would have been different.

There is a huge amount of inequality here in China, but on the whole standards of living have risen.

Sorry about the thread drift but just answering a few questioned raised earlier.


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Subject: RE: BS: How low can it go? (USD question)
From: GUEST,petr
Date: 23 Nov 04 - 08:06 PM

if the US $ drops in value, it's actually something that may not be troubling to the US administration - as it would affect the trade imbalance to the US. For instance 85% Canadian exports are to the US
- a rise in value of the Canadian $ hurts the Canadian economy more, even though some imports may be bargains.
The other benefit to the US is the value of debt is lower so
when paying off debts (say to the Asian Countries) with a lower US$
its less to pay. (And I believe that it has dropped 20% since GWBush
was appointed.)

China isnt affected as much, as their dollar is pegged to the US $
(and when you consider the avg. wage in China is $55 US per month
North America and Europe cant come close to competing)

The US basically enjoys the advantage of a currency used around the world. But if the dollar drops really low, investors may pull more of their money out, and switch to another currency.


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Subject: RE: BS: How low can it go? (USD question)
From: Little Hawk
Date: 23 Nov 04 - 08:27 PM

Both Communism and capitalism contain the seeds of their own destruction. They are both systems designed to benefit the few at the expense of the many.


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Subject: RE: BS: How low can it go? (USD question)
From: GUEST,heric
Date: 23 Nov 04 - 09:57 PM

Thanks Gary. Sooner seems to be the ticket.

Petr I believe I read that the Chinese have been more frequently tossing out the idea of dumping the US benchmark and switching to some type of blended Asian benchmark. Perhaps shanghaiceltic knows the details (or whether its hogwash.)


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Subject: RE: BS: How low can it go? (USD question)
From: GUEST,heric
Date: 23 Nov 04 - 10:58 PM

gotta love disaster stories.
Stephen Roach / Boston Herald


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Subject: RE: BS: How low can it go? (USD question)
From: dianavan
Date: 23 Nov 04 - 11:11 PM

Make your Christmas, old fashioned and quit buying commercial crap. Down size and pay off those debts. Sell your car. Plant vegetables. Learn how to sew.

Stephen Roach isn't the only one out there predicting this. The opportunity to turn this around is pretty slim. It effects Canada, too. Maybe not quite so much but our eonomies are definitely intertwined.

d


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Subject: RE: BS: How low can it go? (USD question)
From: GUEST,donuel
Date: 24 Nov 04 - 01:08 AM

It was only expected to drop 42 cents.

It is aproaching a 46 cent drop.

If anyone here remembers I wrote about how George Soros turned all his dollars into Euros 2 years ago and has made a cool billion.

On a $400,000 exchange even last year one would have made over $100,000.

China can now dictate its financial terms to the US.
(this is a rather extended and complex subject I'll cut short)


HOW low will the dollar go?

Never mind the exchange rate - for the people in the US who are not billionaires, there is a 90% chance that inflation will eat into their holdings to the point where the super rich will be able to buy up the magority of all the real estate at 10 cents on the dollar.

I refer you to the Boston Herald piece on Economic Armegedon today if you not yet seen it.


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Subject: RE: BS: How low can it go? (USD question)
From: GUEST,SueB
Date: 26 Nov 04 - 03:43 AM

I just got back from being away and was going to post the Roach article, and see you all beat me to it, so here's a tidbit re China from www.dailyfx.com:

"The talk is China is looking to pare down it's US Treasury holdings to around USD$180bn. Total Chinese foreign reserves totalled some USD$514.5bn at the end-September. With roughly 80% of China's foreign reserves denominated in USD, the numbers suggest a staggering sell-off..."


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Subject: RE: BS: How low can it go? (USD question)
From: Little Hawk
Date: 26 Nov 04 - 10:13 AM

Still lower! It was down to $1.18 Canadian yesterday, and the friggin' bank gave me $1.16 Cdn for every US dollar after they took their cut (for pushing a computer key).

It has happened due to a society that talked (almost) everyone into spending money they didn't have, through the irresponsible use of credit. When the chickens come home to roost everyone loses...except:

1. Those who have no debts
2. The very, very rich

And what do the very, very rich do? They buy up everything at bargain prices and plunder the society for their own gain. They go and live in comfort while others lose their homes and beg on the street. That's probably what the plan was all along. It's been done before. The very, very rich own the banks and big lending institutions.


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Subject: RE: BS: How low can it go? (USD question)
From: GUEST,SueB
Date: 26 Nov 04 - 12:23 PM

I understand the appeal of conspiracy theories, Little Hawk, but I try to resist them whenever possible - whenever, for instance, the cause of events could also be attributed to shortsightedness, stupidity, incompetence, and other similar factors. I think of the rich as self-interested opportunists who are quick to capitalize on things - it would bother me too much to think of them as evil geniuses practising an elaborate form of social engineering. I've met a few people who are good at making money - most of them thick as bricks. Soulless, yes, smart, no. Smug, self-satisifed, yes. Omniscient, omnipotent, no. Powerful, yes, in the way of the fat kid on the see-saw at the playground, but all-powerful?


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Subject: RE: BS: How low can it go? (USD question)
From: Little Hawk
Date: 27 Nov 04 - 12:46 AM

I'm not speaking of the ordinary "rich", SueB...I'm speaking of the fabulously rich and powerful. Multi-billionaires, not mere millionaires. You don't need a conscious conspiracy when you have a consortium of powerful, centralized commercial entities run by old hereditary families and motivated by bottomless greed...it ends up pretty much the same as if it were a conspiracy...regardless.

It's like Tammany Hall was in New York City once...the mere nature of the Beast leads to heartless exploitation, corruption of public institutions, and greater and greater theft of public wealth and power.

Why does it even have to be a conspiracy? But still, it could be...


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Subject: RE: BS: How low can it go? (USD question)
From: GUEST,Frank
Date: 27 Nov 04 - 11:14 AM

The U.S.could have a full-scale economic depression. The dollar is the largest American export. To buy oil, you have to use the dollar. This was worked out by U.S. and the Saudis. In exchange, U.S. armed the Saudis. The U.S. has been living on "free oil" since the dollar got off the gold standard. Other countries would like some of that "free oil" also.

The Euro is gaining. Alan Greenspan is talking outside of America of a "systemic collapse" of the financial system. He doesn't dare say it in the U.S.

Lots of paper is being printed leading to massive inflation. Commodities are up from 10 to 90%. Dinosaur companies like Kodak are being dumped. U.S. companies are investing in high-earners like Verizon for new production .....
in China not Ohio.

U.S. debt stands at $34 trillion. U.S. GDP....$11 trillion. Debt 3 X more than GDP.

Study by Federal Reserve of Cleveland commisioned a study. Options are:
1. Double payroll taxes from 15.3% to 32% now and forever.
2. Raise income taxes by two thirds now and forever.
3. Cut Social Security and Medicare by 45% now and forever.
(That means in Bushspeak, gut Social Security and Medicare through privatizaion.)
4. Eliminate spending on courts, highways and parks.

Remember that on Bush's resume, he has that he was a failed businessman in oil. His brother Neil was indicted for the Silverado Savings and Loan failure in Colorado.

The gold standard has been replaced by the land standard. Many western U.S. states have been given to the banks.

Bush will continue to try to protect the dollar in the Middle East through hegemony. He wants Iraq as a base of operations. Iran is looking for the Euro.
The Saudis will be next. U.S. will go after Saudis.

Petro-dollar warfare.

In the meantime, the dollar will continue to devalue unless we replace the current Administration with someone who cares enough to protect our government from a drunken sailor military spending spree.

Or Norquist will drown us all in his bathtub.

Frank


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Subject: RE: BS: How low can it go? (USD question)
From: GUEST,SueB
Date: 28 Nov 04 - 12:41 AM

I agree with what I think you said, LH - if what you said was, it doesn't have to be conspiracy, it could just be cause and effect.

There's an article by Stephen Roach in this weekend's IHT

Perhaps a little damage control after that piece about him in the Boston Herald? He reiterates that dangers ("The day could come when foreign investors demand better terms for financing America's spending spree (and savings shortfall). That is the day the dollar will collapse, interest rates will soar and the stock market will plunge. In such a crisis, a U.S. recession would be a near certainty. And the rest of an America-centric world would be quick to follow.") but offers an alternate possibility ("The only way to avoid this unhappy future is for the world's major central banks to carefully manage a gradual but significant depreciation of the dollar over the next several years. America, and the world, would gain in several ways.")

Anyone think Greenspan's going to raise interest rates again in December? I read that he has never raised interest rates in December, not wanting to be thought of as the Grinch of Christmas.


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Subject: RE: BS: How low can it go? (USD question)
From: dianavan
Date: 28 Nov 04 - 01:04 AM

I don't know about Greenspan but I needed to re-invest the other day and was told the interest rates will not raise in Canada although    Canada usually follows the States. I was also told that the Canadian dollar was very strong.

d


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Subject: RE: BS: How low can it go? (USD question)
From: Donuel
Date: 17 Mar 08 - 09:30 AM

FOUR years later we have still a way to drop.

Unprecedented since the great depression the US goverment is bailing out an investment company called Bear Sterns.

I worked briefly for Bear Stearns 24 years ago. They were then indicted on criminal fraud charges and were famous for being proud crooks. Now their 146 dollar stock is down to $2 per share. In other words the worth of the company is worth about 3 floors of their Manhatten office building for about 22 million dollars. This is quite a acquisition for Chase Morgan who plan to buy out BS.

At $2 per share one has to wonder, how deep is the hole.

The speculative mortgage company derivitives were sold as better than gold and told everyone that they were worth trillions. The speculative value was palced at over 500 trillion dollars. That absurdly is more money than all the real estate and GNP for all countries on Earth combined. That fraudulent bubble is bursting.

And the crooks who helped spread that BS, BEar Stearns is getting bailed out. ITs times like this when the Republican party is at their best.

Just think about how much all the old people in America would have lost if George Bush had succeeded in giving Social Security to Wall Street to play with!


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Subject: RE: BS: How low can it go? (USD question)
From: Mrs.Duck
Date: 17 Mar 08 - 05:06 PM

What I want to know is if all oil is priced in US dollars and the pound is now so strong against the dollar why does our fuel now cost around 10$ a gallon??


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Subject: RE: BS: How low can it go? (USD question)
From: GUEST,Jack the Sailor
Date: 17 Mar 08 - 05:30 PM

Its interesting Mrs. Duck.

Last summer Oil was $70 per barrel and gas was about $3.00 gallon.
Now its $100 per barrel and "only" $3.19 per gallon.

It doesn't make much sense to me at all.

As for the question posed in the thread, I don't think the Euro is a fair benchmark. I think the dollar compared to commodities is the only measurement that really counts. Though I'm sure the French wine makers will disagree.

I think the dollar can go down as far as $200.00 per barrel. I think it will have to for the US to start recovering jobs from China and India. It's not just cheap labour that has them eating out lunch. it is unrealistically low currencies.


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Subject: RE: BS: How low can it go? (USD question)
From: McGrath of Harlow
Date: 17 Mar 08 - 06:18 PM

One thing - when it comes to computer books published in the States,the normal practice is to charge the same price in pounds as it is in dollars. (That is consistent with the publishers calling them "Guides for Dummies" and so forth...)


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Subject: RE: BS: How low can it go? (USD question)
From: The Fooles Troupe
Date: 17 Mar 08 - 11:45 PM

"This is quite a acquisition for Chase Morgan who plan to buy out BS."

Somehow I thought it was impossible for ANYONE to get a monopoly on BS..... :-P


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Subject: RE: BS: How low can it go? (USD question)
From: Joe_F
Date: 18 Mar 08 - 09:25 PM

At a guess, there is no limit to how low it can go. I am putting more of my money into COL-linked Treasury bonds than is advised by the orthodox, but that is only a gesture; I do not really believe that I can secure my retirement if there is a Weimar-style hyperinflation.

Political economy, for the business community, used to be confined to one principle:

Business is best when it is easy for stupid people to borrow money.

That principle is still in full operation, as you may notice in the news. But some geniuses who moved into the White House with Ronald Reagan succeeded in adding another to it:

You can combine low inflation with low unemployment by borrowing money from foreigners.

What are we going to do if the Japanese take it into their heads to stop turning over their T-bills? Nuke them again?

We hired the money, didn't we?


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Subject: RE: BS: How low can it go? (USD question)
From: Mark Ross
Date: 19 Mar 08 - 03:04 PM

Inflation is making me stronger, forty years ago I couldn't carry home 15 dollars worth of groceries, now it's the easiest thing in the world!

Mark Ross


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