BS: Yellowstone to blow-up!!

Subject: BS: Yellowstone to blow-up!!
From: GUEST,The Shambles
Date: 10 Mar 05 - 04:18 AM

This programme was to shown earlier but they have spent so much money on making it - the BBC seem to think that the world is now ready for this to be shown.

The next eruption of the super volcano that gurgles away under Yellowstone - is 40,000 years overdue......

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sn/tvradio/programmes/supervolcano/

Subject: RE: BS: Yellowstone to blow-up!!
From: John MacKenzie
Date: 10 Mar 05 - 04:41 AM

I saw some pretty scary stuff about a dome in Yellowstone rising at one end of a lake, on TV before. The seemingly increasing volcanic/earthquake activity in the world, make me think that something nasty could happen anywhere soon.
Giok

Subject: RE: BS: Yellowstone to blow-up!!
From: robomatic
Date: 10 Mar 05 - 05:06 AM

Sounds like a useful new source of renewable energy. Is there a problem here?

Subject: RE: BS: Yellowstone to blow-up!!
From: katlaughing
Date: 10 Mar 05 - 05:21 AM

Lots more info and links HERE. That area is also overdue for a major earthquake, if one goes by past history. But, one can also say that about various other areas, including Boston.

Subject: RE: BS: Yellowstone to blow-up!!
From: John MacKenzie
Date: 10 Mar 05 - 05:42 AM

God wouldn't do that to Boston would he? Wouldn't it be the equivalent of messing on his own doorstep?
Giok

Subject: RE: BS: Yellowstone to blow-up!!
From: The Fooles Troupe
Date: 10 Mar 05 - 07:18 AM

Maybe he might want to say something HIMSELF about what people there have been saying in His Name.....

Subject: RE: BS: Yellowstone to blow-up!!
From: Bunnahabhain
Date: 10 Mar 05 - 08:03 AM

From the Geologicial Society of London

"However, super-eruptions are up to hundreds of times larger than these, and their global effects are likely to be much more severe. An area the size of North America can be devastated, and pronounced deterioration of global climate would be expected for a few years following the eruption. They could result in the devastation of world agriculture, severe disruption of food supplies, and mass starvation. These effects could be sufficiently severe to threaten the fabric of civilization."


That does not sound fun. There are plenty of Supervolcanoes about. It just happens that lots of people know Yellowstone already, as a huge volcanic site.

Plus, if it's a standard BBC weekend drama, the script can threaten/trap tourists in danger. Disabled kids, probably. And some local mayor etc can say " No, I'll not close the park, it'll never erupt." etc, and die in the eruption just when after he goes to the geologist (pretty, young, blonde) "I guess you were right."

I'm not being cynical here. The BBC will repeat the actual real science programme on Supervolcanoes they made a few years back, so they can leave any inconvient science out of the drama. And I do know a pretty young blonde geologist, so the paragraph above isn't total sterotypes...

However, the same report concludes there is nothing we can do, even in the realms of science fiction, about one of these things. Being British, it doesn't end with "Stick your head between your legs and kiss your arse ( note spellling ) goodbye." But should.

Bunnahabhain

Subject: RE: BS: Yellowstone to blow-up!!
From: Rapparee
Date: 10 Mar 05 - 08:51 AM

Oh, fer crap's sakes!

I bloody well LIVE near Yellowstone -- it's 2.5 driving hours East and North. This whole area is seismically active. Lava Hot Springs is just down the road from here, as is Soda Springs. You want lava, I got lava! You want Craters of the Moon National Park, I got it.

The "bulge in the lake" is at the bottom of Yellowstone Lake. Nobody knows if it's growing or shrinking, because they haven't know about it long enough to tell. But I can tell you this much: ain't nobody around here OR over in that direction who's a rat's ass (note spelling) worried about it.

1. There does NOT seem to be any increase in vulcanism. Not at Yellowstone, not outside it. Old Faithful still clicks off just as always and rises to about the height is has been.

2. Being a seismically active area, we ALWAYS get earthquakes. Always. Several every day. In two years I haven't even felt one. But then again folks I know in Ireland were in one a few years back -- the epicenter was in England and their response was, "Well, that figures."

3. Nonetheless, we take precautions. Like a slot machine, you don't know when the payoff may come. For instance, all bookstacks in the library that are over 48 inches high are bolted to the walls.

4. When we have a better idea of the cause of the bubble, we might worry a little more. Right now, we simply don't know enough about it.

I never considered the BBC to be a tabloid, but....

Subject: RE: BS: Yellowstone to blow-up!!
From: The Fooles Troupe
Date: 10 Mar 05 - 09:05 AM

I seem to remember that when Yellowstone was first mentioned it had multiple smokers, it seems to be more docile nowadays.

Back in 1999 David Keys wrote a book called "Catastrophe" - about the apparent eruption in the 6th Century of a major volcano in Indonesia that split the main island into Sumatra & Java - located near where Krakatoa later erupted. This caused disruption of many civilisations around the world, and changed the flow of history, creating the modern nations the way they are today. The idea was later taken up "On Channel 4" - assume that means UK - and I also saw a History/Discovery Channel type Documentary on TV.

Worth a read.

Subject: RE: BS: Yellowstone to blow-up!!
From: GUEST,MMario
Date: 10 Mar 05 - 09:09 AM

geological records suggest that the Yellowstone supervolcano erupts on a 600 to 700 thousand year cycle - and the last one was approximately 640,000 years ago next tuesday. (or possibly last monday)

This is based on a sample of three events. I'm not sure statistically what the margin of error is , but bet that there's nothing to worry about for another 25 thousand years - give or take a month or so.

Subject: RE: BS: Yellowstone to blow-up!!
From: Alice
Date: 10 Mar 05 - 09:11 AM

I live near Yellowstone, too. Yes, the caldera of Yellowstone is growing. It tilts Yellowstone lake so that trees growing at the edge are now underwater. When (not if) the caldera blows up, the world will be shocked, the volcanic fallout will change the world. When I talk to friends about things that are petty, that they should not worry about, I jokingly say, Yellowstone will blow up and then it [the petty item] won't matter.

Subject: RE: BS: Yellowstone to blow-up!!
From: Rapparee
Date: 10 Mar 05 - 09:12 AM

Well, I'm now convinced that The End Is Coming, at least here, and I'm going to follow Jerry Falwell's lead. Yes, I'm going to stock lots of guns and ammunition! When that super-duper-cataclysmic eruption happens I want to be sure that I can defend myself against a wave of lava and flying hot rocks, just like Jerry was ready back in 1999 when he predicted The Rapture and stocked guns for that.

That would put a crimp in my plans to offer free bus service to the Library for those over 60, though, that volcano thing. Maybe I'll just wear asbestos underwear and carry an umbrella in case of lava bombs and rogue asteroids.

Subject: RE: BS: Yellowstone to blow-up!!
From: ToulouseCruise
Date: 10 Mar 05 - 09:12 AM

Better than if it is Jellystone about to blow up... it would be a mighty hard time for Yogi and Boo-Boo, let alone if you can imagine the mess of all those pic-a-nic baskets.

Subject: RE: BS: Yellowstone to blow-up!!
From: GUEST,Metchosin
Date: 10 Mar 05 - 10:20 AM

Ah but the question is, will it blow up before or after we get hit by the meteorite?

Subject: RE: BS: Yellowstone to blow-up!!
From: GUEST,Bee-dubya-ell
Date: 10 Mar 05 - 10:54 AM

Aw fuck! There goes the neighborhood! And I suppose it's too late to catch a spaceship to Alpha Centauri. Damn!

Subject: RE: BS: Yellowstone to blow-up!!
From: heric
Date: 10 Mar 05 - 12:13 PM

Well you guys can laugh but I'm going to research employment opportunities in the Falkland Islands.

Subject: RE: BS: Yellowstone to blow-up!!
From: GUEST,mmARIO
Date: 10 Mar 05 - 12:14 PM

i THINK

Subject: RE: BS: Yellowstone to blow-up!!
From: GUEST,mmARIO
Date: 10 Mar 05 - 12:15 PM

How'd that happen?

Anyway -
I think Lake Taal will blow first - geologists describe that as an "active" super-volcano - and Yellowstone a "dormant" one. But they said Mt. St. Helen's was dormatn too...

Subject: RE: BS: Yellowstone to blow-up!!
From: Sorcha
Date: 10 Mar 05 - 12:25 PM

Unfortunately, none of the links on kat's page work anymore.

Subject: RE: BS: Yellowstone to blow-up!!
From: Don Firth
Date: 10 Mar 05 - 12:26 PM

I've seen a couple of programs (Nova? National Geographic Special?) on this same thing.

Also on the La Palma (Canary Islands) fissure that could slide half the island into the ocean at any time and send a 700 foot tsunami across the Atlantic to devastate the east coast of North America (maybe it'll take out Washington, D.C?). Most of the force will go west, but it'll mess up the west coast of Europe and Great Britain a bit, too.

Also, where I live, the Juan de Fuca plate is continuing it's inexorable slide eastward, under the North American plate. This is the cause of volcanoes in the Cascade Range such as Mount St. Helens and Mt. Baker (started rumbling in the late Seventies, quieted down, then St. Helens blew), and eventually built up pressure will release and we'll have a 9+ quake (big, like the Anchorage quake in the early Sixties) around here. And the Seattle fault (big sucker!) runs right under the city, and the last time it did it's little dance, a section of the state rose twenty-eight feet. That'll make you slop your Starbuck's on your shirt front.

Then, of course, there's the inevitable Mt. Everest size meteorite. Lots of 'em still out there. Sooner or later. . . .   These and others are not a case of "if," but "when." They happen periodically and they ain't done yet. Fascinating stuff, but since I can't do much about it, I'm not really gonna sweat it much.

In an astronomy class, the prof was discussing the evolution of stars. He mentioned that the sun is a fairly normal main-sequence star and since main-sequence stars usually have a life-span of about ten billion years and the sun has been around for about four and a half billion years, it will go through it's death throes in around five billion years or so. A hand goes up in the back row. "What was that?" a student asked frantically. "How many years?" "Around five billion years," the prof responded. "Oh, thank God!" said the student. "I thought you said 'five million!'"

Don Firth

Subject: RE: BS: Yellowstone to blow-up!!
From: Rapparee
Date: 10 Mar 05 - 12:27 PM

What do you suppose that slow-moving, red-hot, blackish bubbly stuff outside my office window is?

But Idaho Falls is closer to Yellowstone than we are. This will give their tourism folks a whole new marketing tool:

Visit Idaho Falls -- the Sodom of the West!

Idaho Falls -- Idaho's Pompeii!

Subject: RE: BS: Yellowstone to blow-up!!
From: GUEST,MMario
Date: 10 Mar 05 - 12:28 PM

Rapaire - that slow-moving, red-hot, blackish bubbly stuff outside my office window is because someone over filled the coffee machine again

Subject: RE: BS: Yellowstone to blow-up!!
From: Bill D
Date: 10 Mar 05 - 12:44 PM

I wish I had a nice sonorous voice, so's I could get a job narrating those doom & gloom 'documentaries'....or even the scary ones about tornados, hurricanes, earthquakes, tsunamis, avalanches, ozone holes killer bees, walking catfish, hip-hop music and *gasp*...Republican dominated congress.

Subject: RE: BS: Yellowstone to blow-up!!
From: Bunnahabhain
Date: 10 Mar 05 - 01:09 PM

You left out slow days on Mudcat...

Subject: RE: BS: Yellowstone to blow-up!!
From: Ebbie
Date: 10 Mar 05 - 01:16 PM

Well, I for one will now sleep with the covers over my head. If I'm lucky, I'll smother to death in the process so that I don't have to face the cataclysmic devastation coming any day now.

At the same time as appalling activities are being engaged in by appalling human beings, worrying about something we can do absolutely nothing about is ludicrous.

Subject: RE: BS: Yellowstone to blow-up!!
From: GUEST,MMario
Date: 10 Mar 05 - 01:19 PM

besides which - the sun has a finite suppply of fuel and will eventually either burn out or blow itself up. So why worry about a measly supervolcano?

Subject: RE: BS: Yellowstone to blow-up!!
From: Teresa
Date: 10 Mar 05 - 01:53 PM

It all kinda puts life into perspective, doesn't it? Well, if these disasters happen, the good news is that we won't have to worry about a thing. It's kind of fascinating, though.

Teresa

Subject: RE: BS: Yellowstone to blow-up!!
From: Liz the Squeak
Date: 10 Mar 05 - 02:41 PM

The programme was originally due to be shown over New Year, but what with the tsunami on Boxing Day, the BBC decided not to show it... perhaps the events of that day will make it a bit more believable.

LTS

Subject: RE: BS: Yellowstone to blow-up!!
From: GUEST,Guy Who Thinks
Date: 10 Mar 05 - 03:34 PM

Check this out:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toba_catastrophe_theory

The Tombora eruption of 1815 was also devastating, as was Krakatoa in 1883.

All of these volcanoes are in Indonesia, origin point of the giant earthquake and tsunami.

Giant earthquakes may be associated with volcanic activity...

Subject: RE: BS: Yellowstone to blow-up!!
From: GUEST
Date: 10 Mar 05 - 03:41 PM

wind may be associated with weather

Subject: RE: BS: Yellowstone to blow-up!!
From: Don Firth
Date: 10 Mar 05 - 04:20 PM

Plate techtonics explains the whole thing. Contrary to popular belief, Terra ain't all that firma

On Wednesday, February 28th, 2001, at 10:54 a.m. PST, a 6.8 earthquake hit this area, 58 km. south-southeast of Seattle and 50 km. down (the Juan de Fuca plate sliding under the North American plate again).

I live on the ground floor of a co-op apartment building: brick and stone, four stories, built in 1910. I was sitting at the computer (probably on Mudcat at the time) when it started. The building began to shake and I knew right away what it was. Been there before—felt several quakes around 3.5 to 4 or so that lasted ten or fifteen seconds. "Just hang on," I figured. "It'll quit in a few seconds." But it kept right on going. And it got stronger. My desk lamp started rocking back and forth, and the desk drawers started moving in and out all by themselves. Miraculously, the bookshelves didn't topple over.

It continued. Suddenly the lights in the building went off and my computer monitor blinked out. The shaking was getting downright violent. Then I suddenly remembered: don't try to go outside (possible falling bricks), but get into a doorway (structurally stronger). So there I am, sitting at the front door of my apartment, watching the chandelier in the front hall oscillating wildly. The building is still shaking violently, no sign of let-up. It occurs to me how old the building is, it occurs to me that it can't take much more of this, and it also occurs to me that I could get the whole damned thing down the back of my neck. And I'm thinking, "Oh, shit! This is gonna hurt!!"

I continued to hang on. Gradually it began to subside. A few more shudders, then it stopped. The chandelier was still swinging widely, but things got very quiet.

Then I heard voices upstairs. Two of my upstairs neighbors, knowing I'm in a wheelchair and knowing I was home, dashed downstairs to make sure I was okay. Bless their hearts. Once ascertaining that, they ran all over, both inside and outside the building, to check for damage. The old pile has survived several strong quakes, and it rode this one out okay also. Lights in the whole neighborhood were out, but Seattle City Light got on the job right away, and a couple of hours later, they came on again.

The whole thing lasted for about 45 seconds, but it felt like several minutes.

That was strong enough, thank you very much. I'm not really looking forward to anything like that again. Definitely nothing stronger, please. Too damned unsettling.

But this is kind of interesting:   Earthquake Rose. Wait for it to load and scroll down.

Don Firth

Subject: RE: BS: Yellowstone to blow-up!!
From: GUEST,MMario
Date: 10 Mar 05 - 04:25 PM

gorgeous!

Subject: RE: BS: Yellowstone to blow-up!!
From: Don Firth
Date: 10 Mar 05 - 04:27 PM

Here's a thought to make your day:   

The earth is a ball of boiling, roiling nickel-iron. We're living on the crust of slag that has formed on the surface.

Walk softly. No stomping!

Don Firth

Subject: RE: BS: Yellowstone to blow-up!!
From: Bill D
Date: 10 Mar 05 - 04:52 PM

oh, it does happen http://www.decadevolcano.net/santorini/minoaneruption.htm This describes Thera, on Santorini, often suspected as being what happened to Atlantis.

Subject: RE: BS: Yellowstone to throw-up!!
From: Rapparee
Date: 10 Mar 05 - 05:07 PM

My wife and I were sitting at dinner at a restaurant in Anchorage when it felt like a truck hit the building. Nothing else. Just your run-of-the-mill Alaska earthquake. I don't think the people bringing dinner even stumbled slightly.

Subject: RE: BS: Yellowstone to blow-up!!
From: Liz the Squeak
Date: 10 Mar 05 - 05:12 PM

Even if the science is dodgy... we're all far too complacent about Mother Nature and her restlessness.

LTS

Subject: RE: BS: Yellowstone to blow-up!!
From: Bill D
Date: 10 Mar 05 - 10:58 PM

a fine line between 'complacent' and 'resigned'.

I'm not at all complacent about people buliding in 20 years flood plains- that can be controlled!, but super-volcanos?..nope...

Subject: RE: BS: Yellowstone to blow-up!!
From: Donuel
Date: 11 Mar 05 - 06:04 AM

I wonder what they will name the geyser formerly known as Old Faithful.
Its now way off schedule and more erratic.

Subject: RE: BS: Yellowstone to blow-up!!
From: Bill D
Date: 11 Mar 05 - 10:16 AM

if it blows..."Old Facefull"

Subject: RE: BS: Yellowstone to blow-up!!
From: Metchosin
Date: 11 Mar 05 - 10:53 AM

LOL

Subject: RE: BS: Yellowstone to blow-up!!
From: GUEST,MMario
Date: 11 Mar 05 - 10:55 AM

but I thought that had been corrected with metamusil! It was on all the TV channels.

Subject: RE: BS: Yellowstone to blow-up!!
From: GUEST,bbc at work
Date: 11 Mar 05 - 11:26 AM

I hopes it waits until after my summer trip to the Southwest. There are things I'd like to see before they or I go.

bbc

Subject: RE: BS: Yellowstone to blow-up!!
From: GUEST,Guy Who Thinks
Date: 11 Mar 05 - 11:36 AM

"Old Faithful" may go through occasional periods of faithlessness. Or its regularity may be a relatively recent and temporary phenomenon (within the past few hundred years).

Or its current unpredictability may be essentially unrelated to the big blast to come.

The apparent fact that the "bubble" under Yellowstone is forcing the surface upwards at a current rate of about an inch a year may be much more important.

Or it could begin to sink again, which could be the real danger signal.

Or not.

Subject: RE: BS: Yellowstone to blow-up!!
From: Rapparee
Date: 11 Mar 05 - 11:43 AM

When I was at YNP last July Old Faithful was predictable and predicted -- and generally went up about the time predicted. As for the bubble under the lake, my own opinion is that it's Spaw's fault, just like the bubbles in the swimming pool.

Subject: RE: BS: Yellowstone to blow-up!!
From: Metchosin
Date: 11 Mar 05 - 12:07 PM

Relax people, not only do "scientists" have great difficulty modeling and predicting future events, sometimes they can't even get their facts straight.

I was at this Cascadia Subduction Zone site yeaterday and was suprised to note the statement, "hence the lack of volcanic activity in Canada", despite the fact that they have Mt. Meager and Mt Garabaldi, in the Garabaldi Volcanic Belt just north of Vancouver, marked on their map near the top of the page.

If vocanic activity doesn't occur in Canada, that is news to me, especially since I was involved with the radio carbon dating of some material from the Tseax Cone in the Stikine Volcanic Belt, when I worked as a Parks Technician in BC Interpretation Assessment back in the 70's.

The material we had dated, determined that the last eruption at the cinder cone was only 220 years ago, less than a blink of an eye in the geological timescale. While it has been awhile, just over 2000 years since Mt Meager spewed, again that is a very young volcano in a geologicial sense and the geothermal events there are still ongoing.

Subject: RE: BS: Yellowstone to blow-up!!
From: HuwG
Date: 11 Mar 05 - 12:41 PM

Some definitions:

"Active" ; whether erupting, rumbling or merely producing steam and gas, a volcano is active.

"Dormant" ; not currently active, but known to have been active within a measurable period of time, and in a tectonic setting which means it is liable to become active again.

By this definition, the Yellowstone region is active. St. Helens and Pinatubo are two examples of dormant volcanoes which suddenly came back to life.


Here are two US Geological Service links on The Snake River Plain and Yellowstone

Yellowstone sits on top of a "hot spot", a source of rising hot material in the mantle. The rising material is a basic (i.e. low in silica) magma which forms basalt when it erupts. Oceanic crust is largely basaltic, so a hot spot under oceanic crust (such as Hawaii or Iceland) generally builds itself islands in a comparatively undramatic fashion (though there is the possiblity of very large tsunami triggered by undersea collapse of unstable slopes).

Under continental crust, which is acid (i.e. high in silica), the hot spot will melt some of the crust to form an acidic magma which is known as rhyolite when it erupts. These can be much more violent than basaltic eruptions because as a magma, rhyolite is much more viscous than basalt. If there are lots of volatiles (e.g. steam, carbon dioxide, sulphur dioxide, and other gases present, they all come out of solution in the magma when the eruption begins and the pressure on the magma is released, and cause an explosive or "paroxysmal" eruption.

(To reproduce the effect, purchase a 2-litre plastic bottle of lemonade. Kick it around the floor for a bit. Then remove the top. And go and get a cloth.)

"Supervolcanoes" are distinguished by their magnitude i.e. the sheer volume of rock involved, and their paroxysmal nature. Note that Krakatoa was a mini-supervolcano in this respect; its violent eruption was paroxsymal in nature, but the volume of rock involved as ash, pumice and so on was little more than that produced by, say, Pinatubo. The final cataclysmic explosions were produced by Krakatoa collapsing into its partially voided magma chambers.

I suspect that in the case of Yellowstone exploding, we will have lots of warning signs, which will precede the bang by years or even decades years. The area will bulge several tens of metres or even hundreds of metres; there will be lots of earthquakes and gas will be evolved. ("Old Faithful" and other geysers involve superheated ground water. Water evolved from the hot spot or a rhyolite intrusion will be loaded with sulphides and other minerals). Long-period harmonic seismic waves will indicate that magma is being evolved or is rising within the existing chamber. There may also be small preliminary basaltic eruptions.

Unfortunately, geology isn't an exact science. Most predictions are hedged with uncertainty and qualifications. The periodicity of the preceding blasts isn't necessarily a guide as to when the next will occur.

Subject: RE: BS: Yellowstone to blow-up!!
From: GUEST,leeneia
Date: 11 Mar 05 - 12:59 PM

Here's a quotation from the BBC web-site about their own program

"State-of-the-art computer graphics integrated with mock-factual sources make for a horrifyingly realistic build-up to the eruption and the climax itself."

Mock-factual sources, eh? Now you know why a I have a bumper-sticker that says "Smoke-free, drug-free, media-free."

I've been the United States Geological Survey's sites about Yellowstone. There is no doubt that there is a hot-spot (or something) under there. That's no surprise. However, the BBC isn't asking itself why, if there's a permanent feature under there, it seems to cause an eruption every 600,000 years. So maybe the 600,000 year "cycle" is baloney. Maybe the hot spot is cooling off or spreading out. Maybe it has gone under thicker, sounder crust and can't do so much damage.

Also, there is no guarantee that a future eruption will happen overnight - that it will be an explosion like Mount St Helens'. It could be more gradual, with many small eruptions occurring over a long period of time. But that idea wouldn't fit in well with TV-people's love for fear, worry and drama, would it?

Subject: RE: BS: Yellowstone to blow-up!!
From: Rapparee
Date: 11 Mar 05 - 01:08 PM

Which, HuwG, is why I'm not overly concerned. We'll have notice.

Subject: RE: BS: Yellowstone to blow-up!!
From: GUEST
Date: 11 Mar 05 - 01:10 PM

Will it be posted in the Times?

Subject: RE: BS: Yellowstone to blow-up!!
From: Bill D
Date: 11 Mar 05 - 03:11 PM

"End of the world nigh!...Film at 11"

It's funny how documentaries about this sort of thing sell, while explanations of stuff we can control are considered boring and largely ignored.