BS: New Orleans Will Drown Again

Subject: RE: BS: New Orleans Will Drown Again
From: Bill D
Date: 06 Sep 05 - 10:31 PM

"Much of the area is NOT under water and will rebuild rapidly."

Q....well...maybe. Much of the area, including housing and services, is under 8 FEET of water, and will not be habitable soon. Since rebuilding the area as a whole is connected with having power, water and available living quarters for citizens, it is a matter of conjecture what "rapidly" might be.

The school districts have already announced that they will likely lose the whole year, and many, many buildings would need not only renovation, but also inspection, I would say 2 years is an optomistic estimate before the general metropolitan area could be anywhere near normal...IF there are no more storms and IF basic services can be restored and IF levees can be shored up to a reasonable standard. Would YOU want to move back in there with no more protection than before?

There will be MUCH wrangling over what is 'safe', how much money can be alloted to make things safe, and what to do if 27% of the residents can't be re-established in the city for various reasons.

one more thing...." ...you don't have to wear a parka to bed and still freeze like you do in Detroit or Chicago if you can't pay the heating bill."

We lived in New Orleans...my mother said she was never so cold and miserable in her life as when the temperature got down to 40°F or so and the wind started whistling in over Lake Ponchitrain...and she had lived in Colorado and Wyoming! It was a wet, chilling cold, though it almost never got down to freezing.

I do agree with one thing implicitly, though..." Mankind doesn't like long range policies."

Subject: RE: BS: New Orleans Will Drown Again
From: GUEST,TIA
Date: 06 Sep 05 - 10:44 PM

As someone pointed out above, it is the topping of the levees that causes failure. They (usually) don't just give way. The Johnstown flood was caused by topping (and nearly immediate erosion of) the Conemaugh Dam. The biblical flood may well have been caused by topping of a natural levee surrounding the black sea (followed by extremely rapid erosion). It is not beyond human engineering to build very tall levees that will hold even in an epic storm surge. Are we willing to pay for it (and can we stand the sight of them)?

Now, forget the canal idea. It simply moves the levees to either side of every street (unless you want to cover New Orleans with 12+ feet of fill).

Subject: RE: BS: New Orleans Will Drown Again
From: M.Ted
Date: 07 Sep 05 - 12:12 AM

We had the technology and the economic resources available to properly reinforce the levees--we just didn't do it--as to the question of when or whether it will all come back--well, we always come back, bigger and better than before--Galveston, San Francisco, Chicago--and we've got more resources to draw on now than ever before--it may not be easy, but nothing is ever easy--and what else can people do?

Subject: RE: BS: New Orleans Will Drown Again
From: Bill D
Date: 07 Sep 05 - 12:35 AM

"THE Johnstown flood" ..the first, and biggest flood was caused by washing away the dam.....there have been several since. I took this picture several years ago of Johnstown City Hall. It was NOT caused by a failed dam, but simply by heavy rains and an inadequate (meaning 'not high enough') flood control system.

They built a deep concrete ditch, and no one wants to pay for, or look at, one high enough to guarantee no floods!

New Orleans is a problem of several magnitudes greater.

Subject: RE: BS: New Orleans Will Drown Again
From: Bill D
Date: 07 Sep 05 - 12:38 AM

"...what else can people do?"....well, they can do as well as possible what they MUST do, and they can not tempt fate by trying to do the impossible.

Subject: RE: BS: New Orleans Will Drown Again
From: Mr Red
Date: 07 Sep 05 - 08:03 AM

The ex-town planner of New Orleans was on UK radio this morning.

She was debating whether or not they would fill the aras 30 feet below sea level. hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm.

Global warming, sea level rises, book your deja vu for the 2050 Mardi Gras.

Subject: RE: BS: New Orleans Will Drown Again
From: M.Ted
Date: 07 Sep 05 - 11:32 AM

You're going to drag us into a war of cliches, here, Bill--I'll see "well, they can do as well as possible what they MUST do, and they can not tempt fate by trying to do the impossible. " and raise you "You don't know what's possible until you try";-)

Charming though you are, you are wrong about the dam at Johnstown--here is a wonderful explanation of The Cause of the Johnstown Flood with a detailed description of how earth and rock dams were built, and a moment to moment account of the water build up--

Subject: RE: BS: New Orleans Will Drown Again
From: Q (Frank Staplin)
Date: 07 Sep 05 - 12:53 PM

Of course "rapidly" is a relative term; I did not mean to imply that this will be an overnight job. I figure about two years overall, but much will be restored before then. The N. O. parishes of Orleans and Jefferson, where the flooding occurred, should be decontaminated and rebuilding well under way by then. Estimates vary on the extent of the flooded area; it seems to be about 60%. The "wooden" city will require a lot of lumber for repair and replace housing.

Schools will be a huge problem, as Bill D. says, but portable and temporary buildings can be put in place once the area is cleared and people move back.

Some parts of metropolitan New Orleans are going to be back in business soon. St. Tammany Parish inc. Metairie will reopen schools as soon as power becomes reliable. Some 200,000 people in this part of metro. St. Charles Parish says its water is now OK and the Monsanto and Cyrtec plants are about ready to re-open.

Algiers has minimal flooding. The temporary N. O. police HQ is there. Residents are setting up patrols to protect property. Water is on and safe and power is mostly restored. Some residents have returned.

Entergy has restored power to more than half of its 1.1 million customers. Limited power has been given to the Central Business District and Downtown N. O. They will shut off gas lines, including the French Quarter, probably Sept. 7, because of the leaks and fire danger.

Among those in the City who have refused to evacuate are custodians at NOMA, the Museum of Art. FEMA has raised the ire of those interested in N. O. history by turning back trucks trying to reach and remove vital records. Many interesting stories developing.

Subject: RE: BS: New Orleans Will Drown Again
From: pdq
Date: 07 Sep 05 - 01:11 PM

Not everyone has heard of the St. Francis Dam break, even in California, so here is a little about it...

St. Francis Dam

Here is a excert form that article:

"Officially, at least 450 people died. The real toll is believed to be higher because an unknown number of migrant farm workers had been camped along the Santa Clara River. After the 1906 San Francisco earthquake and fire, the St. Francis Dam collapse was California's deadliest disaster. It also was recorded as the worst American civil engineering failure of the century."

And more about the chief engineer:

Mulholland

Subject: RE: BS: New Orleans Will Drown Again
From: Bill D
Date: 07 Sep 05 - 01:38 PM

gee, M.Ted, I hadn't intended to simply trade clichés, but "You don't know what's possible until you try" calls for "Throwing good money after bad" or possibly even "spitting in the eye of a hurricane" ;>)

But I think the best one might be "calculated risk", with 95% of the emphasis on the "calculated". It seems to me that many calculations were ignored around the Mississippi delta in the last 40 years. (I see in this morning's paper that, quite apart from whether they can 'rebuild', there is doubt that the water supply can be made safe for several years). There are a lot more factors than good levees in the decision about the future of the city.

(and it's possible I failed to convey that the picture I linked to was of the plaque on City Hall showing the height of the 1977 flood...8'6". *THAT* flood was not from a failed dam...and the 2nd picture was the partially cement ditch which was inadequate.)

Subject: RE: BS: New Orleans Will Drown Again
From: McGrath of Harlow
Date: 07 Sep 05 - 01:48 PM

" the canal idea. It simply moves the levees to either side of every street"

That's to confuse two very different aspects of flood control. Street canals aren't meant for holding back big floods, they're for giving the water a safe palce to go, so that minor floods of a few feet aren't that big a problem, and even relativeluy major floods are less destructuve; ; levees are barriers for holding out water, and that is a very different aspect of flood control.

One thing that does strike me as foolish is having just a single wall of levees around a city, so that a breach is disastrous. Two rings would make far more sense, with locks at intervals which could serve as bulkheads localising any breach on the outer levee.
...........................................

"Mankind doesn't like long range policies." And thats why they never built those cathedrals in Europe, knowing that it'd be long after their deaths before they were finished? And that's not just ancient history - check out the Sagrada Familia in Barcelona).   It's too easy to assume that generalisations about our own nation and our own culture are true for "Mankind" as a whole.

Subject: RE: BS: New Orleans Will Drown Again
From: Bill D
Date: 07 Sep 05 - 02:07 PM

I guess, Kevin, that a precise explanation of what "mankind doesn't like" would run to a LONG compound-complex sentence, and that any simple form will necessarily have exceptions. My original point was that politicians who decide these things do not usually have the long-term considerations as first priorities.

It is all very well to plan a cathederal which will take a couple hundred years to complete...the motivation is different; it is not 'in the way' while it is being done, and the costs are not incurred in a short time frame. To build a levee/dual-ring flood control system would require LOTS of money in a short period in order to cope with a 2 month storm season every year.

Subject: RE: BS: New Orleans Will Drown Again
From: pdq
Date: 07 Sep 05 - 03:32 PM

Edwin Edwards was first elected governor of Louisana in 1971. Maybe, just maybe, some of the levees should have been modernized during the last 35 years.

Here is a statement from a book review:


"Snake Eyes Sink the Cajun King"

by Carmela Ciuraru
         
       He grew up poor in a small Southern town, but his intelligence, perseverance, and ambition got him to law school and then to the governor's office. He adored pretty women and had trouble being faithful to his wife. He was a seductive politician who often got himself, and those connected with him, into skirmishes with the law. He accused Republicans of doing everything they could to get him ousted from office. When he finally left, his legacy was tainted.


This isn't the story of Bill Clinton, but of Edwin Washington Edwards, also known as the "Cajun King." Until his recent conviction on racketeering and extortion charges, Edwards served four terms as governor of Louisiana, the last of which proved to be his downfall.

"Bad Bet on the Bayou" is Tyler Bridges's often entertaining account of Edwards's corruption-ridden reign. (This was a man reelected to office despite exit polls showing that 6 out of 10 voters thought he was a crook.)

Now a reporter for The Miami Herald, Bridges covered the Bayou State's many scandals as a reporter for The Times-Picayune in New Orleans in the early 1990s.


"There are said to be several truths in Louisiana politics," the author writes. "One is that an honest politician is one who stays bought. Another is that politics is theater, and there is always demand for an encore." The state's unofficial motto is, "Let the Good Times Roll."

In the early 1990s, Louisiana found itself mired in fiscal ruin. Governor Edwards, a lifelong lover of gambling, proclaimed that legalizing it again would lead the state back to financial security. By creating a state lottery and luring casino businesses to Louisiana, he said, its economy would be revitalized, thousands of new jobs would be created, crime would drop, and all would be well.


Under Edwards's watch, plans were made to erect a gambling empire. Applications for casino bids flooded the governor's office, and there was little Edwards wouldn't do, the FBI later learned, to ensure that his friends and political supporters got their licenses approved. He hosted a weekly poker game where the pot would often reach thousands of dollars. His cronies understood that losing large sums of money to their powerful friend was a good way of securing favors.


By the mid-1990s, the gambling business had become both hugely damaging and hugely influential. A newspaper report revealed that the industry had become the most generous of all contributors to political campaigns. Yet Edwards emerged unscathed from more than two dozen legal investigations into his financial dealings, and retired in 1996 at the end of his term.


Two years later, after an FBI raid on his home and office and a lengthy investigation, Edwards could no longer outsmart the law. A federal grand jury indicted him on 26 counts of racketeering and extortion.

Eighteen weeks and 66 prosecution witnesses later, he was found guilty on 17 of the counts. (Don't count him out just yet: Edwards, now 73, has appealed the conviction, and is free on bail pending a new trial.)

Today, the gambling industry still has a firm grip on Louisiana; the public school system is a mess; and there is widespread poverty and racial tensions. The author concludes that the Edwards story is tragic on many levels: "He used only a fraction of his awesome talents to better the lives of Louisiana's 4.5 million residents."

Subject: RE: BS: New Orleans Will Drown Again
From: Q (Frank Staplin)
Date: 07 Sep 05 - 10:58 PM

"Two rings of levees-"
That would be quite some engineering project.
N. O. City, esp. Jefferson Parish, is on both sides of the Mississippi. An important barge canal runs through the City from the River to Lake Ponchartrain (major breaks were here, although there was another break on a major drainage canal). Efforts are already underway to clear the Industrial Canal for traffic.

Area that would have to be "ringed" to include metropolitan N. O.-
Orleans Parish- 180 sq. mi.
Jefferson Parish- 307 sq. mi.
Parts of the following:
St. Bernard Parish- 1794 sq. mi. Chalmette here. Much flooding in the City part.
St. Tammany Parish- 854 sq. mi. Metairie here.
St. Charles, Plaquemines, Lafourche and St. John the Baptist Parishes- areas in these with contiguous populations to N. O.

Today, it looks like more than 100 billion will be allocated to immediate concerns of clean-up and repair. "For want of---"
-----------------------
Interesting sidebar, pdq-
Gamblers in Louisiana spend about 200 million per month in the casinos (about 40 million per month in the greater N. O. Area). Don't know if machines are included in this total.
Yes, I would like to know how much of it goes into the State's coffers and what it is spent on. Is the accounting that is reported meaningful?
Gambling is a growth industry all over the USA and Canada, even here in western Canada, where I am located now. I recently had a look-in at the casinos in New Mexico, and a large and expensive hotel-golf course-casino complex near Albuquerque, owned by the Indian pueblos (but controlled by--?). The State gets a cut, but accounting?

Subject: RE: BS: New Orleans Will Drown Again
From: pdq
Date: 07 Sep 05 - 11:02 PM

"During his last term as Louisana governor, Edwin Edwards had all the mechanical voting machines replaced by electronic ones. The old units were sold as surplus to Sinaloa, Mexico.

In the next election, using the US machines, Edwin Edwards was elected governor of the state of Sinaloa by getting 68% of the vote".