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BS: Will this thread reach 85 billion posts?

GUEST,Blind DRunk in Blind River 24 Jun 06 - 01:31 PM
John MacKenzie 24 Jun 06 - 02:01 PM
GUEST,Blind DRunk in Blind River 24 Jun 06 - 02:57 PM
John MacKenzie 24 Jun 06 - 03:03 PM
Bill D 24 Jun 06 - 03:12 PM
GUEST,Skipy 24 Jun 06 - 04:33 PM
Rapparee 24 Jun 06 - 05:53 PM
JohnInKansas 24 Jun 06 - 06:04 PM
John MacKenzie 24 Jun 06 - 06:09 PM
Bee-dubya-ell 24 Jun 06 - 08:12 PM
Bee-dubya-ell 24 Jun 06 - 08:12 PM
Bee-dubya-ell 24 Jun 06 - 08:12 PM
Bee-dubya-ell 24 Jun 06 - 08:13 PM
Bee-dubya-ell 24 Jun 06 - 08:13 PM
Bee-dubya-ell 24 Jun 06 - 08:13 PM
Bee-dubya-ell 24 Jun 06 - 08:13 PM
Bee-dubya-ell 24 Jun 06 - 08:14 PM
Bee-dubya-ell 24 Jun 06 - 08:14 PM
Bee-dubya-ell 24 Jun 06 - 08:14 PM
Bee-dubya-ell 24 Jun 06 - 08:15 PM
Bee-dubya-ell 24 Jun 06 - 08:15 PM
Bee-dubya-ell 24 Jun 06 - 08:15 PM
Bee-dubya-ell 24 Jun 06 - 08:15 PM
Bee-dubya-ell 24 Jun 06 - 08:16 PM
Bee-dubya-ell 24 Jun 06 - 08:16 PM
Bee-dubya-ell 24 Jun 06 - 08:17 PM
JohnInKansas 25 Jun 06 - 03:01 AM
DMcG 25 Jun 06 - 03:42 AM
JohnInKansas 25 Jun 06 - 04:50 AM
John MacKenzie 25 Jun 06 - 06:07 AM
Bee-dubya-ell 25 Jun 06 - 08:53 AM
Bill D 25 Jun 06 - 10:09 AM
GUEST,Blind DRunk in Blind River 25 Jun 06 - 01:06 PM
Bill D 25 Jun 06 - 01:53 PM
Little Hawk 25 Jun 06 - 01:56 PM
JohnInKansas 25 Jun 06 - 03:47 PM
GUEST,Mrs Olive Whatnoll 25 Jun 06 - 05:20 PM
Slag 26 Jun 06 - 02:07 AM
DMcG 26 Jun 06 - 10:26 AM
Bee-dubya-ell 26 Jun 06 - 06:45 PM
JohnInKansas 26 Jun 06 - 09:21 PM
Susu's Hubby 27 Jun 06 - 10:02 AM
GUEST,Blind DRunk in Blind River 30 Jun 06 - 05:58 PM
Ebbie 01 Jul 06 - 02:02 PM
GUEST,Willie Dewitt 11 Aug 06 - 03:50 PM
Peace 11 Aug 06 - 03:56 PM
Bill D 11 Aug 06 - 04:31 PM
Slag 11 Aug 06 - 04:39 PM
skipy 11 Aug 06 - 04:41 PM
GUEST,I was there at the beginning man 12 Aug 06 - 12:26 PM

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Subject: BS: Will this thread reach 85 billion posts?
From: GUEST,Blind DRunk in Blind River
Date: 24 Jun 06 - 01:31 PM

Let's flippin' hope not, eh! Cos if it, like, did, eh, it would be a major flippin' WASTE of a lotta peoples' time, eh? I mean, FLIP, it ain't like we aint' got better flippin' things ta do with our time, know what I mean? Fer instence, we could be drinkin'. We could be gettin' it on with someone we just met at the wet T-shirt night over at the Iron Horse Tavern. We could be borrowin' somebodys car or snowmoblie that ain't in use right now cos they are too flippin' lazy to pay attenshun to it and we could be goin' for a joyride up to Timmins, eh? There's a lotta stuff we could do that would be, like, WAY more fun than flippin' postin' to this stupid flippin' thread! In fact, I am gonna crack open a beer right now and lissen to some AC-DC. See ya later!

- BDiBR


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Subject: RE: BS: Will this thread reach 85 billion posts?
From: John MacKenzie
Date: 24 Jun 06 - 02:01 PM

Eightyfive billion yaaay, I claim my prize.
Giok


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Subject: RE: BS: Will this thread reach 85 billion posts?
From: GUEST,Blind DRunk in Blind River
Date: 24 Jun 06 - 02:57 PM

You can't count too flippin' good can you?

- BDiBR


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Subject: RE: BS: Will this thread reach 85 billion posts?
From: John MacKenzie
Date: 24 Jun 06 - 03:03 PM

Can when it suits me!
G


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Subject: RE: BS: Will this thread reach 85 billion posts?
From: Bill D
Date: 24 Jun 06 - 03:12 PM

Leadfingers will be SO disappointed.


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Subject: RE: BS: Will this thread reach 85 billion posts?
From: GUEST,Skipy
Date: 24 Jun 06 - 04:33 PM

Maybe.


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Subject: RE: BS: Will this thread reach 85 billion posts?
From: Rapparee
Date: 24 Jun 06 - 05:53 PM

Hey, Shane. I ever tell you about that party I had with that exotic dancer who said she was a Canadian cop? Boy, oh boy, could she ever...drink.


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Subject: RE: BS: Will this thread reach 85 billion posts?
From: JohnInKansas
Date: 24 Jun 06 - 06:04 PM

...Not unless Max gets a really fast connection.

At 10,000 posts per day (just to this thread) you're talking 23,272+ years1 worth of posts.

1 US billions 109, not UK billions 1012. The Brits will get there a bit later.

John


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Subject: RE: BS: Will this thread reach 85 billion posts?
From: John MacKenzie
Date: 24 Jun 06 - 06:09 PM

Once I led the life of a billionaire ♪♫
G


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Subject: RE: BS: Will this thread reach 85 billion posts?
From: Bee-dubya-ell
Date: 24 Jun 06 - 08:12 PM

Come on you pessimists! All it would take to get 85 billion posts would be for each person in the world to post to this thread seventeen times. Just seventeen times! What's the problem?


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Subject: RE: BS: Will this thread reach 85 billion posts?
From: Bee-dubya-ell
Date: 24 Jun 06 - 08:12 PM

2


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Subject: RE: BS: Will this thread reach 85 billion posts?
From: Bee-dubya-ell
Date: 24 Jun 06 - 08:12 PM

3


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Subject: RE: BS: Will this thread reach 85 billion posts?
From: Bee-dubya-ell
Date: 24 Jun 06 - 08:13 PM

4


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Subject: RE: BS: Will this thread reach 85 billion posts?
From: Bee-dubya-ell
Date: 24 Jun 06 - 08:13 PM

5


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Subject: RE: BS: Will this thread reach 85 billion posts?
From: Bee-dubya-ell
Date: 24 Jun 06 - 08:13 PM

6


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Subject: RE: BS: Will this thread reach 85 billion posts?
From: Bee-dubya-ell
Date: 24 Jun 06 - 08:13 PM

7


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Subject: RE: BS: Will this thread reach 85 billion posts?
From: Bee-dubya-ell
Date: 24 Jun 06 - 08:14 PM

8 (over half-way there)


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Subject: RE: BS: Will this thread reach 85 billion posts?
From: Bee-dubya-ell
Date: 24 Jun 06 - 08:14 PM

9


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Subject: RE: BS: Will this thread reach 85 billion posts?
From: Bee-dubya-ell
Date: 24 Jun 06 - 08:14 PM

10


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Subject: RE: BS: Will this thread reach 85 billion posts?
From: Bee-dubya-ell
Date: 24 Jun 06 - 08:15 PM

11


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Subject: RE: BS: Will this thread reach 85 billion posts?
From: Bee-dubya-ell
Date: 24 Jun 06 - 08:15 PM

12


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Subject: RE: BS: Will this thread reach 85 billion posts?
From: Bee-dubya-ell
Date: 24 Jun 06 - 08:15 PM

13


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Subject: RE: BS: Will this thread reach 85 billion posts?
From: Bee-dubya-ell
Date: 24 Jun 06 - 08:15 PM

14


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Subject: RE: BS: Will this thread reach 85 billion posts?
From: Bee-dubya-ell
Date: 24 Jun 06 - 08:16 PM

15


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Subject: RE: BS: Will this thread reach 85 billion posts?
From: Bee-dubya-ell
Date: 24 Jun 06 - 08:16 PM

16


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Subject: RE: BS: Will this thread reach 85 billion posts?
From: Bee-dubya-ell
Date: 24 Jun 06 - 08:17 PM

SEVENTEEN!!!

Now what was so hard about that?


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Subject: RE: BS: Will this thread reach 85 billion posts?
From: JohnInKansas
Date: 25 Jun 06 - 03:01 AM

First Post: 24 Jun 06 - 01:31 PM
27th Post: 25 Jun 06 - 12:41 AM
Elapsed time: 23:50 = 1430 minutes
Time per post: 52.96296 minute
Expected time for 85*109 posts = 4.50185*1012 minutes
           =7.503*10 hours
           =3.126*9 days
           = 8.56*106 years

Expected success date:

In the year 8,561,544, 11 September - 09:17 PM (Mudcat time.)

(approximately)

John


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Subject: RE: BS: Will this thread reach 85 billion posts?
From: DMcG
Date: 25 Jun 06 - 03:42 AM

The average post in this thread is some 400 characters. So Max only needs to buy about 34 Terabytes of storage. That should cost about 1c (current prices) by 8,561,544.


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Subject: RE: BS: Will this thread reach 85 billion posts?
From: JohnInKansas
Date: 25 Jun 06 - 04:50 AM

DMcG -

Yeah, but he can't wait until all the posts are done to get the first TB drive, if we're really serious about this. Current price per TB (single drives) is about $750 - $1,000 each. And we've only got about 251,000 years before the first one is full and we'll need to get the second one.

John


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Subject: RE: BS: Will this thread reach 85 billion posts?
From: John MacKenzie
Date: 25 Jun 06 - 06:07 AM

Sorry folks but by that time the earth will be almost too hot to support life and the few people that are left will be living underground at the poles, getting limited water from desalination plants, which use what is left of the sea to make drinking water, and run the hydroponicums.
Mind you by then you won't have enough contributors so you won't need to buy another disc.
Giok


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Subject: RE: BS: Will this thread reach 85 billion posts?
From: Bee-dubya-ell
Date: 25 Jun 06 - 08:53 AM

Hah! John in Kansas forgot to factor the changes in day and year length that will occur over the next 8,559,538 years into his calculations!

And Giok neglected to consider the effects of plate tectonics, continental drift, and the development of Antarctica as prime beachfront property as it migrates toward the equator.


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Subject: RE: BS: Will this thread reach 85 billion posts?
From: Bill D
Date: 25 Jun 06 - 10:09 AM

but ALL of you failed to factor in how fast it will go if Bee-dubya-ell passes on his technique to his children...and grandchildren. Why in a few generations we could have thousands of little Dubya-ells proliferating the redundancies of non-erudite, voluminous vicissitudes with blazing speed! Why, we might finish in time for St. Swithin's day celebrations in 18,923.


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Subject: RE: BS: Will this thread reach 85 billion posts?
From: GUEST,Blind DRunk in Blind River
Date: 25 Jun 06 - 01:06 PM

Never under-flippin'-guesstimate the stuipdity of the postin' public, eh?

- BDiBR


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Subject: RE: BS: Will this thread reach 85 billion posts?
From: Bill D
Date: 25 Jun 06 - 01:53 PM

huh? You talk funny, BDiBR..


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Subject: RE: BS: Will this thread reach 85 billion posts?
From: Little Hawk
Date: 25 Jun 06 - 01:56 PM

You should see how he dresses...


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Subject: RE: BS: Will this thread reach 85 billion posts?
From: JohnInKansas
Date: 25 Jun 06 - 03:47 PM

Bee-Dub

Hah! John in Kansas forgot to factor the changes in day and year length that will occur over the next 8,559,538 years into his calculations!

It may be assumed, probably safely, that appropriate calendar corrections will be applied by the appropriate time-keepers so that no corrections for said changes in day and year length should be required.

Dumbass Bee-Dub failed to check the arithmetic and point out that 27 posts accounts for only 26 intervals between posts, so the first division was incorrect, producing an error of 3.846% - an intentional trap to see if the arithmetically illiterate would fall for it.

(But the Bee wasn't really the one I expected to have to point it out to.)

John


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Subject: RE: BS: Will this thread reach 85 billion posts?
From: GUEST,Mrs Olive Whatnoll
Date: 25 Jun 06 - 05:20 PM

Bee-Dubya-Ell is a stupid prat! E's capable of anyfink, that's my opinion. This 'ere bloody fread will reach 85 billion posts the day I am crowned Queen of England...which is to say: NEVER!


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Subject: RE: BS: Will this thread reach 85 billion posts?
From: Slag
Date: 26 Jun 06 - 02:07 AM

...84,999,999,989, 84,999,999,990, 84,999,999,991, 84,999,999,992, 84,999,999,993, 84,999,999,994, ...


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Subject: RE: BS: Will this thread reach 85 billion posts?
From: DMcG
Date: 26 Jun 06 - 10:26 AM

Yeah, but he can't wait until all the posts are done to get the first TB drive, if we're really serious about this. Current price per TB (single drives) is about $750 - $1,000 each. And we've only got about 251,000 years before the first one is full and we'll need to get the second one.
Well, that's true as far as it goes, but we can only reckon on, say, 5 years lifetime for a drive. By which time the price should have fallen to something like one-eighth of its previous cost. We have to keep on doing this for the first 251000 years, so we have a total cost of something like

1000*(1 + 1/8 + 1/64 + 1/256 + ......) for the first 251000 years, and then we have two drives to worry about....

But of course, that's only the hardware cost. We also need to add in an allowance for Max's time to copy all the data about at some hourly rate to be decided. This of course is higher each time he copies it, and is something like 20% higher that then previous time.

The total estimate cost is left as an exercise to the reader.


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Subject: RE: BS: Will this thread reach 85 billion posts?
From: Bee-dubya-ell
Date: 26 Jun 06 - 06:45 PM

If you think it would take a long time for 85 billion people to post to this thread, consider the alternative! It will also take a long time for 85 billion people to not post to this thread!

It is said that the current world population of 6.5 billion represents one-fifth of the people who have been alive in the last five thousand years. That means that in five thousand years there have only been 32.5 billion people who have not posted to this thread. In order for 85 billion people to have not posted to this thread, we'll have to wait for another 52.5 billion people to have been born and lived their lives without having posted to this thread.

How long will that take? I dunno. It probably won't take another five thousand years, but it ain't gonna happen next week.


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Subject: RE: BS: Will this thread reach 85 billion posts?
From: JohnInKansas
Date: 26 Jun 06 - 09:21 PM

19,646 characters for the first 41 posts = 479.17 characters per post average.

85*109 posts at 479.17 characters per post = 40,729.45*109 characters, or 40.7*1012 bytes. (<41 TB)

While this implies 41 1 TB drives for storage, an article in 2002 that fairly accurately predicted the 1 TB drive should arrive "about now" also predicts that we will have 120 TB drives by around the year 2012. As it's doubtful that the first 1 TB can be filled prior to that time, advances in available hardware should allow the purchase of only one additional hard drive by the time it's needed, and we should have lots of room left over.

(Of course, we'll need a backup drive for this valuable information.)

From the same article, the 28 million volumes at the US Library of Congress are estimated, in plain text files, as sufficent to fill one fifth of a 120 TB drive, so the "one third of a drive" needed for this thread won't be all that large.

And of course, if we have to use the 2012 version of Windows to run the drive, the OS may use the rest of it.

John


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Subject: RE: BS: Will this thread reach 85 billion posts?
From: Susu's Hubby
Date: 27 Jun 06 - 10:02 AM

What about the extra day due to leap years? Don't forget those!



Hubby


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Subject: RE: BS: Will this thread reach 85 billion posts?
From: GUEST,Blind DRunk in Blind River
Date: 30 Jun 06 - 05:58 PM

Ha! I see youse flipheads finally wized up and stopped poasting to this dumb thread, eh? You ain't all as stoopid as I thoght.

- BDiBR


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Subject: RE: BS: Will this thread reach 85 billion posts?
From: Ebbie
Date: 01 Jul 06 - 02:02 PM

Don't misunderestimate me, Shane.


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Subject: RE: BS: Will this thread reach 85 billion posts?
From: GUEST,Willie Dewitt
Date: 11 Aug 06 - 03:50 PM

Evidently not.


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Subject: RE: BS: Will this thread reach 85 billion posts?
From: Peace
Date: 11 Aug 06 - 03:56 PM

"RE: BS: Will this thread reach 85 billion posts?"

Make a few assumptions:

1) Everyone who ever lived WOULD have posted had s/he had a computer and the 'cat had existed.

2) ("It is said that the current world population of 6.5 billion represents one-fifth of the people who have been alive in the last five thousand years. That means that in five thousand years there have only been 32.5 billion people who have not posted to this thread.") SEE #1.

3) They each posted to the thread once a day for three consecutive days.

OK, so it's like this: The thread should already have REACHED a paltry 85 billion posts.

Joe, you have lots to answer for. WHERE ARE THE POSTS?


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Subject: RE: BS: Will this thread reach 85 billion posts?
From: Bill D
Date: 11 Aug 06 - 04:31 PM

no one has yet computed the difference in possible success if Shambles is allowed to continue posting, or whether he is locked in a room with Kim Howells and transcripts of all the PELs threads.

I make it oh...about 8742 years shorter.


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Subject: RE: BS: Will this thread reach 85 billion posts?
From: Slag
Date: 11 Aug 06 - 04:39 PM

In terms of dog years, er I mean dollars that's like les than 1/4 the US's annual budget. All you have to do is tax, I mean TAX Mudcatters to post and you'll have it done in um, say about 3 months.


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Subject: RE: BS: Will this thread reach 85 billion posts?
From: skipy
Date: 11 Aug 06 - 04:41 PM

Nope!
Skipy


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Subject: RE: BS: Will this thread reach 85 billion posts?
From: GUEST,I was there at the beginning man
Date: 12 Aug 06 - 12:26 PM

Hoped I would be among the first 50, but looks as if I'll have to settle for the first 100. Still, something to boast about one day.... "Did you know I was one of the first 100 to post a message on the 'Will this thread etc, etc. They said it never could be done.... there not so smug now".
This thread could be the highlight of my life, or future lives if we are reincarnated and can remember previous lives. We could organise a first 100 club perhaps, the other billions of people would be so jealous wouldn't they. Can anyone do T shirts?


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