BS: Will this thread reach 85 billion posts?

Subject: RE: BS: Will this thread reach 85 billion posts?
From: GUEST,Willie Dewitt
Date: 11 Aug 06 - 03:50 PM

Evidently not.

Subject: RE: BS: Will this thread reach 85 billion posts?
From: Ebbie
Date: 01 Jul 06 - 02:02 PM

Don't misunderestimate me, Shane.

Subject: RE: BS: Will this thread reach 85 billion posts?
From: GUEST,Blind DRunk in Blind River
Date: 30 Jun 06 - 05:58 PM

Ha! I see youse flipheads finally wized up and stopped poasting to this dumb thread, eh? You ain't all as stoopid as I thoght.

- BDiBR

Subject: RE: BS: Will this thread reach 85 billion posts?
From: Susu's Hubby
Date: 27 Jun 06 - 10:02 AM

What about the extra day due to leap years? Don't forget those!



Hubby

Subject: RE: BS: Will this thread reach 85 billion posts?
From: JohnInKansas
Date: 26 Jun 06 - 09:21 PM

19,646 characters for the first 41 posts = 479.17 characters per post average.

85*10⁹ posts at 479.17 characters per post = 40,729.45*10⁹ characters, or 40.7*10¹² bytes. (<41 TB)

While this implies 41 1 TB drives for storage, an article in 2002 that fairly accurately predicted the 1 TB drive should arrive "about now" also predicts that we will have 120 TB drives by around the year 2012. As it's doubtful that the first 1 TB can be filled prior to that time, advances in available hardware should allow the purchase of only one additional hard drive by the time it's needed, and we should have lots of room left over.

(Of course, we'll need a backup drive for this valuable information.)

From the same article, the 28 million volumes at the US Library of Congress are estimated, in plain text files, as sufficent to fill one fifth of a 120 TB drive, so the "one third of a drive" needed for this thread won't be all that large.

And of course, if we have to use the 2012 version of Windows to run the drive, the OS may use the rest of it.

John

Subject: RE: BS: Will this thread reach 85 billion posts?
From: Bee-dubya-ell
Date: 26 Jun 06 - 06:45 PM

If you think it would take a long time for 85 billion people to post to this thread, consider the alternative! It will also take a long time for 85 billion people to not post to this thread!

It is said that the current world population of 6.5 billion represents one-fifth of the people who have been alive in the last five thousand years. That means that in five thousand years there have only been 32.5 billion people who have not posted to this thread. In order for 85 billion people to have not posted to this thread, we'll have to wait for another 52.5 billion people to have been born and lived their lives without having posted to this thread.

How long will that take? I dunno. It probably won't take another five thousand years, but it ain't gonna happen next week.

Subject: RE: BS: Will this thread reach 85 billion posts?
From: DMcG
Date: 26 Jun 06 - 10:26 AM

Yeah, but he can't wait until all the posts are done to get the first TB drive, if we're really serious about this. Current price per TB (single drives) is about $750 - $1,000 each. And we've only got about 251,000 years before the first one is full and we'll need to get the second one.
Well, that's true as far as it goes, but we can only reckon on, say, 5 years lifetime for a drive. By which time the price should have fallen to something like one-eighth of its previous cost. We have to keep on doing this for the first 251000 years, so we have a total cost of something like

1000*(1 + 1/8 + 1/64 + 1/256 + ......) for the first 251000 years, and then we have two drives to worry about....

But of course, that's only the hardware cost. We also need to add in an allowance for Max's time to copy all the data about at some hourly rate to be decided. This of course is higher each time he copies it, and is something like 20% higher that then previous time.

The total estimate cost is left as an exercise to the reader.

Subject: RE: BS: Will this thread reach 85 billion posts?
From: Slag
Date: 26 Jun 06 - 02:07 AM

...84,999,999,989, 84,999,999,990, 84,999,999,991, 84,999,999,992, 84,999,999,993, 84,999,999,994, ...

Subject: RE: BS: Will this thread reach 85 billion posts?
From: GUEST,Mrs Olive Whatnoll
Date: 25 Jun 06 - 05:20 PM

Bee-Dubya-Ell is a stupid prat! E's capable of anyfink, that's my opinion. This 'ere bloody fread will reach 85 billion posts the day I am crowned Queen of England...which is to say: NEVER!

Subject: RE: BS: Will this thread reach 85 billion posts?
From: JohnInKansas
Date: 25 Jun 06 - 03:47 PM

Bee-Dub

Hah! John in Kansas forgot to factor the changes in day and year length that will occur over the next 8,559,538 years into his calculations!

It may be assumed, probably safely, that appropriate calendar corrections will be applied by the appropriate time-keepers so that no corrections for said changes in day and year length should be required.

Dumbass Bee-Dub failed to check the arithmetic and point out that 27 posts accounts for only 26 intervals between posts, so the first division was incorrect, producing an error of 3.846% - an intentional trap to see if the arithmetically illiterate would fall for it.

(But the Bee wasn't really the one I expected to have to point it out to.)

John

Subject: RE: BS: Will this thread reach 85 billion posts?
From: Little Hawk
Date: 25 Jun 06 - 01:56 PM

You should see how he dresses...

Subject: RE: BS: Will this thread reach 85 billion posts?
From: Bill D
Date: 25 Jun 06 - 01:53 PM

huh? You talk funny, BDiBR..

Subject: RE: BS: Will this thread reach 85 billion posts?
From: GUEST,Blind DRunk in Blind River
Date: 25 Jun 06 - 01:06 PM

Never under-flippin'-guesstimate the stuipdity of the postin' public, eh?

- BDiBR

Subject: RE: BS: Will this thread reach 85 billion posts?
From: Bill D
Date: 25 Jun 06 - 10:09 AM

but ALL of you failed to factor in how fast it will go if Bee-dubya-ell passes on his technique to his children...and grandchildren. Why in a few generations we could have thousands of little Dubya-ells proliferating the redundancies of non-erudite, voluminous vicissitudes with blazing speed! Why, we might finish in time for St. Swithin's day celebrations in 18,923.

Subject: RE: BS: Will this thread reach 85 billion posts?
From: Bee-dubya-ell
Date: 25 Jun 06 - 08:53 AM

Hah! John in Kansas forgot to factor the changes in day and year length that will occur over the next 8,559,538 years into his calculations!

And Giok neglected to consider the effects of plate tectonics, continental drift, and the development of Antarctica as prime beachfront property as it migrates toward the equator.

Subject: RE: BS: Will this thread reach 85 billion posts?
From: John MacKenzie
Date: 25 Jun 06 - 06:07 AM

Sorry folks but by that time the earth will be almost too hot to support life and the few people that are left will be living underground at the poles, getting limited water from desalination plants, which use what is left of the sea to make drinking water, and run the hydroponicums.
Mind you by then you won't have enough contributors so you won't need to buy another disc.
Giok

Subject: RE: BS: Will this thread reach 85 billion posts?
From: JohnInKansas
Date: 25 Jun 06 - 04:50 AM

DMcG -

Yeah, but he can't wait until all the posts are done to get the first TB drive, if we're really serious about this. Current price per TB (single drives) is about $750 - $1,000 each. And we've only got about 251,000 years before the first one is full and we'll need to get the second one.

John

Subject: RE: BS: Will this thread reach 85 billion posts?
From: DMcG
Date: 25 Jun 06 - 03:42 AM

The average post in this thread is some 400 characters. So Max only needs to buy about 34 Terabytes of storage. That should cost about 1c (current prices) by 8,561,544.

Subject: RE: BS: Will this thread reach 85 billion posts?
From: JohnInKansas
Date: 25 Jun 06 - 03:01 AM

First Post: 24 Jun 06 - 01:31 PM
27th Post: 25 Jun 06 - 12:41 AM
Elapsed time: 23:50 = 1430 minutes
Time per post: 52.96296 minute
Expected time for 85*10⁹ posts = 4.50185*10¹² minutes
           =7.503*¹⁰ hours
           =3.126*⁹ days
           = 8.56*10⁶ years

Expected success date:

In the year 8,561,544, 11 September - 09:17 PM (Mudcat time.)

(approximately)

John

Subject: RE: BS: Will this thread reach 85 billion posts?
From: Bee-dubya-ell
Date: 24 Jun 06 - 08:17 PM

SEVENTEEN!!!

Now what was so hard about that?

Subject: RE: BS: Will this thread reach 85 billion posts?
From: Bee-dubya-ell
Date: 24 Jun 06 - 08:16 PM

16

Subject: RE: BS: Will this thread reach 85 billion posts?
From: Bee-dubya-ell
Date: 24 Jun 06 - 08:16 PM

15

Subject: RE: BS: Will this thread reach 85 billion posts?
From: Bee-dubya-ell
Date: 24 Jun 06 - 08:15 PM

14

Subject: RE: BS: Will this thread reach 85 billion posts?
From: Bee-dubya-ell
Date: 24 Jun 06 - 08:15 PM

13

Subject: RE: BS: Will this thread reach 85 billion posts?
From: Bee-dubya-ell
Date: 24 Jun 06 - 08:15 PM

12

Subject: RE: BS: Will this thread reach 85 billion posts?
From: Bee-dubya-ell
Date: 24 Jun 06 - 08:15 PM

11

Subject: RE: BS: Will this thread reach 85 billion posts?
From: Bee-dubya-ell
Date: 24 Jun 06 - 08:14 PM

10

Subject: RE: BS: Will this thread reach 85 billion posts?
From: Bee-dubya-ell
Date: 24 Jun 06 - 08:14 PM

9

Subject: RE: BS: Will this thread reach 85 billion posts?
From: Bee-dubya-ell
Date: 24 Jun 06 - 08:14 PM

8 (over half-way there)

Subject: RE: BS: Will this thread reach 85 billion posts?
From: Bee-dubya-ell
Date: 24 Jun 06 - 08:13 PM

7

Subject: RE: BS: Will this thread reach 85 billion posts?
From: Bee-dubya-ell
Date: 24 Jun 06 - 08:13 PM

6

Subject: RE: BS: Will this thread reach 85 billion posts?
From: Bee-dubya-ell
Date: 24 Jun 06 - 08:13 PM

5

Subject: RE: BS: Will this thread reach 85 billion posts?
From: Bee-dubya-ell
Date: 24 Jun 06 - 08:13 PM

4

Subject: RE: BS: Will this thread reach 85 billion posts?
From: Bee-dubya-ell
Date: 24 Jun 06 - 08:12 PM

3

Subject: RE: BS: Will this thread reach 85 billion posts?
From: Bee-dubya-ell
Date: 24 Jun 06 - 08:12 PM

2

Subject: RE: BS: Will this thread reach 85 billion posts?
From: Bee-dubya-ell
Date: 24 Jun 06 - 08:12 PM

Come on you pessimists! All it would take to get 85 billion posts would be for each person in the world to post to this thread seventeen times. Just seventeen times! What's the problem?

Subject: RE: BS: Will this thread reach 85 billion posts?
From: John MacKenzie
Date: 24 Jun 06 - 06:09 PM

Once I led the life of a billionaire ♪♫
G

Subject: RE: BS: Will this thread reach 85 billion posts?
From: JohnInKansas
Date: 24 Jun 06 - 06:04 PM

...Not unless Max gets a really fast connection.

At 10,000 posts per day (just to this thread) you're talking 23,272+ years¹ worth of posts.

¹ US billions 10⁹, not UK billions 10¹². The Brits will get there a bit later.

John

Subject: RE: BS: Will this thread reach 85 billion posts?
From: Rapparee
Date: 24 Jun 06 - 05:53 PM

Hey, Shane. I ever tell you about that party I had with that exotic dancer who said she was a Canadian cop? Boy, oh boy, could she ever...drink.

Subject: RE: BS: Will this thread reach 85 billion posts?
From: GUEST,Skipy
Date: 24 Jun 06 - 04:33 PM

Maybe.

Subject: RE: BS: Will this thread reach 85 billion posts?
From: Bill D
Date: 24 Jun 06 - 03:12 PM

Leadfingers will be SO disappointed.

Subject: RE: BS: Will this thread reach 85 billion posts?
From: John MacKenzie
Date: 24 Jun 06 - 03:03 PM

Can when it suits me!
G

Subject: RE: BS: Will this thread reach 85 billion posts?
From: GUEST,Blind DRunk in Blind River
Date: 24 Jun 06 - 02:57 PM

You can't count too flippin' good can you?

- BDiBR

Subject: RE: BS: Will this thread reach 85 billion posts?
From: John MacKenzie
Date: 24 Jun 06 - 02:01 PM

Eightyfive billion yaaay, I claim my prize.
Giok

Subject: BS: Will this thread reach 85 billion posts?
From: GUEST,Blind DRunk in Blind River
Date: 24 Jun 06 - 01:31 PM

Let's flippin' hope not, eh! Cos if it, like, did, eh, it would be a major flippin' WASTE of a lotta peoples' time, eh? I mean, FLIP, it ain't like we aint' got better flippin' things ta do with our time, know what I mean? Fer instence, we could be drinkin'. We could be gettin' it on with someone we just met at the wet T-shirt night over at the Iron Horse Tavern. We could be borrowin' somebodys car or snowmoblie that ain't in use right now cos they are too flippin' lazy to pay attenshun to it and we could be goin' for a joyride up to Timmins, eh? There's a lotta stuff we could do that would be, like, WAY more fun than flippin' postin' to this stupid flippin' thread! In fact, I am gonna crack open a beer right now and lissen to some AC-DC. See ya later!

- BDiBR