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BS: October surprise: Bin Laden captured?

10 Sep 08 - 11:20 PM (#2436970)
Subject: BS: October surprise: Bin Laden captured?
From: Genie

Bob Woodruff in his new book suggests that the Dubya administration, abetted by the usual suspects, and probably with McCain's approval (if not complicity) will pull an October Surprise by conveniently capturing or killing Osama Bin Laden in mid to late October, 2008.

Do you think this is likely? If it happens, will it effectively fool the American people? And is there anything the Democrats (or other less gullible people) can do to counter the effect of such a ploy?

10 Sep 08 - 11:38 PM (#2436980)
Subject: RE: BS: October surprise: Bin Laden captured?
From: katlaughing

What will it do for the economy, education, health care, the mortgage crisis, ending the wars in Iraq, etc., the disparity between wages and the cost of living, no raises, no bonuses, no decent minimum wage, and on and on....

11 Sep 08 - 12:03 AM (#2437006)
Subject: RE: BS: October surprise: Bin Laden captured?
From: CarolC

Well, there's certainly less potential for a backlash if they do it that way than if they arrange/allow a terrorist attack on US soil (still a possibility, in my opinion). Actually, capturing Bin Laden doesn't seem to really have a downside for them. On the other hand, now that they have something new and shiny to flash around, they might not see it as particularly needed.

11 Sep 08 - 12:04 AM (#2437007)
Subject: RE: BS: October surprise: Bin Laden captured?
From: Genie

Nada, of course. But that doesn't necessarily mean it won't affect the "low information" undecided voters.

11 Sep 08 - 02:00 PM (#2437535)
Subject: RE: BS: October surprise: Bin Laden captured?
From: Bee-dubya-ell

I don't think Cheney and Bush are going to go out of their way to benefit McCain. They'll go through the motions of being good Republicans, but neither of them likes McCain enough to hand him a prize like Bin Laden. The short time they have left in office doesn't allow them sufficient basking-in-glory time to satisfy their arrogant egos, and I don't think it's in either of their natures to share their glory with someone else, particularly John McCain. If Bin Laden is really an easy enough target that his capture could be orchestrated to coincide with a US election, they'd have done it in '04 or '06 when Cheney and Bush would have been direct beneficiaries.

11 Sep 08 - 02:06 PM (#2437544)
Subject: RE: BS: October surprise: Bin Laden captured?
From: irishenglish

I think it could possibly backfire. A larger portion of the public, not to mention all the families who have troops over there would see it as a ploy. They will ask why now? Why all of a sudden did you find the guy? I'm glad we are sending the additonal troops, but IF that is an honest strategy, its a pretty repulsive one.

11 Sep 08 - 02:18 PM (#2437553)
Subject: RE: BS: October surprise: Bin Laden captured?
From: Bee

It wouldn't surprise me, but I would expect it to have nothing to do with the election. Bush is entering the last days of his presidency, and I would bet that his ego demands that he not leave office without some final grandstand event. I'd bet that he does not want the history of his time in office to include that he did not bother to, or was unable to, capture the man behind 9/11. I'd also bet that bin Laden's capture could have been orchestrated many times over during these last years.

11 Sep 08 - 02:23 PM (#2437556)
Subject: RE: BS: October surprise: Bin Laden captured?
From: PoppaGator

I agree with BWL that grabbing bin Laden can't possibly be so easy, or else they wound have pulled that rabbit out of their collective hat four years ago.

However, I disagree with the other half of his argument. I do not believe that Bush and Cheney's personal affection for McCain, or lack thereof, has anything to do with the price of beans. Coddled corporate interests can't afford not to have a nice tame GOP executive branch under their thumbs. Blackwater, Halliburton, et. al., are the most obvious examples, but they're just the tip of the iceburg.

For those who would argue that "maverick" John McCain would clean house, persue bipartisanship, and restore the body politic to represent the ordinary citizen at least a little bettter than the current regime ~ take a look at how quickly and easily his campaign has been taken over by Big Brother and begun to pander to the most extreme and empty-headed Right.

I think the best "October surprise" the Republicans can manage will be to withdraw troops from Iraq significantly more quickly than currently advertised.

It just might work; this is a time-honored GOP tactic. Those of us who are old enough will recall that Richard Nixon was elected in 1968 largely on his promise of a "secret plan to end the war" in Vietnam. Of course, the plan was to continue the war for three-and-a-half more years, prompting the Dems to put forward a pretty-much-single-issue antiwar candidate, and then after the conventions and shortly before the 1972 general election, to pull the rug out from under McGovern by finally calling a halt to the slaughter, beginning the withdrawl, and scheduling the military draft to be discontinued on January 1, 1973.

11 Sep 08 - 02:28 PM (#2437557)
Subject: RE: BS: October surprise: Bin Laden captured?
From: maire-aine

People who remember how the hostages were conveniently held captive until Reagan was elected will see thru it, I hope.

M

11 Sep 08 - 03:09 PM (#2437591)
Subject: RE: BS: October surprise: Bin Laden captured?
From: Genie

Bee, I agree that Bin Laden's capture could have been orchestrated or effected many times over during the past 8 years -- including before 9-11-01. And it definitely would have helped Dubya during the 2004 election -- but I don't think they thought they needed the capture, since he magically appeared by video in Oct. of that year to make the voters think he supported Kerry (and since the Swift Boaters had succeeded in casting decorated Veteran Kerry as either a wimp or a traitor).   Plus, by using Bin Laden in 2004 but letting him stay free, they could keep the boogey man to scare the people for 4 more years and still have his capture in their "arsenal" in 2008 to help the Republicans stay in power AND to salvage Dubya's "legacy."

As for Cheney and Bush going to go out of their way to benefit McCain, I don't know about Bush, but the real powers behind the Neocon Republican Party definitely do want McCain and Palin to win -- especially Palin.   (I see her as Bush with lipstick - or, worse, Cheney with lipstick and a "mom" image.) It would not surprise me if, after succeeding in getting back the White House, the Rove-Cheney machine managed to get rid of McCain fairly soon (one way or another) so that their new darling of big oil and Christian fundamentalism could take over.

11 Sep 08 - 03:10 PM (#2437595)
Subject: RE: BS: October surprise: Bin Laden captured?
From: Donuel

Even a charred corpse beyond recognition is worth a few votes for McCain.

We arenow going into Pakistan vogorously.

2 weeks ago we killed 24 women and children in Pakistan. Pakistan is really angry but there isn't a peep of it on US TV, or at least none that I have seen.

No doubt George considers Ossama the cherry on his Sundae.
I hope he dies thinking   ... if only...

11 Sep 08 - 03:25 PM (#2437609)
Subject: RE: BS: October surprise: Bin Laden captured?
From: Amos

We are now going into Pakistan not only "vigorously" but aggressively, and illegally from an international sense. They have threatened to defend their sovereignty if we cross intop their territory without permission.

But I say to hell with that. If it's good enough for AMerican citizen to have their property and privacy invaded at arbitrary whim by guntoting authorities, it ought to be good enough for the Pakis. AFter all there's a war on, right?


A

11 Sep 08 - 03:50 PM (#2437634)
Subject: RE: BS: October surprise: Bin Laden captured?
From: katlaughing

According to McCain, only he knows how to get it done. From Countdown, last night:

(Sorry for not making it clear, the following are Keith Olbermann's words.)

We heard it last week in Minnesota. We've heard it off and on since January, but Senator McCain said it most concisely in June.

"Look," he said. "I know the area. I've been there. I know wars. I know how to win wars. And I know how to improve our capabilities so that we will capture Osama bin Laden. Or put it this way, bring him to justice. We will do it. I know how to do it."

Sen. McCain seems to be quite serious, that he and he alone, not the CIA, nor the U.S. Military, nor the current President can capture bin Laden.

Thus we must take him at his word that this is no mere ludicrous campaign boast. We must assume Sen. McCain truly believes he is capable of doing this, and has been capable of doing this, since last January. "We will capture Osama bin Laden. We will do it. I know how to do it."

Well then, Senator, you'd better go and do it hadn't you?

Because, sir, if a man or woman in this nation, Democrat or Republican, had a clear and effective means of capturing or killing Osama bin Laden, if that person had been advertising his claim, Senator, for eight months, but if that person not only refused to go to responsible authorities in government and advise them of this plan to catch bin Laden, but further announced he would not even begin to enact this secret plan to corral the world's most hated man until the end of next January, what would be your description of such an individual, Senator? Charlatan? Do-nothing? Opportunist?

Sen. McCain, if you have, if you have had a means of capturing Osama bin Laden, and you do not immediately inform some responsible authority of the full scope of that plan, you are to some degree, great or small, aiding and abetting Osama bin Laden.

If you could assist in capturing him now, Sen. McCain, but you have chosen not to, you, sir, have helped Osama bin Laden stay free. Free to inspire and supervise the terrorists. Free to plan or execute attacks here.

You, sir, are blackmailing some portion of the American electorate into voting for your party, by promising to help in the capture of bin Laden only if you are made president!

I'd rather win an election than catch bin Laden! No more cynical calculation has ever been made in this nation's history, sir. If you lose the election, senator, are you not going to tell the President-elect?

Are you intending to keep this a secret until the next election and your party's next nominee? Senator, as you and your Republicans shed your phony, crocodile, opportunistic tears tomorrow on 9/11 ™, in front of the utterly disingenuous banner "Country First," the fact is, you have shown that it is John McCain first, and the country last.

The fact is, sir, by holding out on your secret plan to catch bin Laden, by searing those images into our collective wounded American psyche at your nomination last week, terrorists are not what you, John McCain, fight. Terrorists are what you, John McCain, use.

Good night and good luck.

11 Sep 08 - 04:10 PM (#2437653)
Subject: RE: BS: October surprise: Bin Laden captured?
From: Genie

Kat,
I take it that straight-to-the-point diatribe came from Keith Olberman, right?

Good on him!

I was about to post something along the same lines, but Keith said it better.

Genie

11 Sep 08 - 04:30 PM (#2437674)
Subject: RE: BS: October surprise: Bin Laden captured?
From: Wesley S

I figure the "boogyman" will be more valueable to them if he is still "out there" somewhere. But I expect gas prices to come down some more.

11 Sep 08 - 04:52 PM (#2437697)
Subject: RE: BS: October surprise: Bin Laden captured?
From: Bobert

Well, might as well kill Osamo off 'cause he really has outlives his usefullness as Boogie-man... Heck, the Repubs have promoted Barrak to that position...

11 Sep 08 - 05:07 PM (#2437708)
Subject: RE: BS: October surprise: Bin Laden captured?
From: Little Hawk

There are several possible October surprises to help get people to vote Republican:

- a conveniently timed major "terrorist" attack on American soil
- a conveniently timed shooting war suddenly erupts with Iran (a limited one...or otherwise)
- a conveniently timed capture or death of Bin Laden
- a conveniently timed other international war crisis of some sort

Americans will always tend to vote for a bellicose "warrior" type like John McCain in the even of such a crisis. The natural reaction to trouble of that sort seems to be..."Oh, let's add to it, shall we? Best throw some more gasoline on the fire, boys."

I agree, Kat, that terrorists are not what these guys in Washington fight, terrorists are what they use, and terrorists are what they are.

11 Sep 08 - 05:36 PM (#2437750)
Subject: RE: BS: October surprise: Bin Laden captured?
From: Amos

Or, thanks to recent escalation in relations by secret orders from The Cheek Decider, a shooting war with Pakistan.


A

11 Sep 08 - 06:27 PM (#2437797)
Subject: RE: BS: October surprise: Bin Laden captured?
From: CarolC

I've been thinking they'd get rid of McCain quickly, too. Makes it a bit difficult for me to understand why he would put himself in that position. If he becomes president, I don't expect him to be president for very long. If he gets elected, I see a "stroke" in his not-too-distant future.

11 Sep 08 - 06:34 PM (#2437801)
Subject: RE: BS: October surprise: Bin Laden captured?
From: Lox

Pakistan is a nuclear power.

Just a thought - doesn't impply any viewpoint, but it certainly colours the whole discussion in a bit differently.

11 Sep 08 - 07:06 PM (#2437825)
Subject: RE: BS: October surprise: Bin Laden captured?
From: pdq

"...I expect gas prices to come down some more."

Yep, as the internationally-determined crude oil price drops, the US companies can still make a reasonable return and charge less for gasoline. They make about 7-10% per year. Compare that to investment bankers like Soros who has averaged 23% per year since 1969.

Here is today's price:

            Dated Brent Spot            95.89 ($/barrel)

Looks like about 2/3 of the price it was on the July 4 weekend.

11 Sep 08 - 07:34 PM (#2437840)
Subject: RE: BS: October surprise: Bin Laden captured?
From: katlaughing

Yes, Genie, but I wouldn't call it a "diatribe." I think he's spot on.

11 Sep 08 - 08:04 PM (#2437858)
Subject: RE: BS: October surprise: Bin Laden captured?
From: Little Hawk

Nobody else can make money the way huge banks can, pdq. That's because they can lend it out hundreds of times (beyond their actual cash deposits), collect interest on all those loans, and in effect create billions of dollars out of thin air at the mere stroke of a computer key.

Talk about a money tree!

11 Sep 08 - 08:05 PM (#2437859)
Subject: RE: BS: October surprise: Bin Laden captured?
From: Bobert

Exxon Mobile makes George Soros look like a bum in the soup line, pdq... No comparision... Not even close... But nice try...

11 Sep 08 - 08:14 PM (#2437866)
Subject: RE: BS: October surprise: Bin Laden captured?
From: pdq

I have enought arguments going right now so I will avoid the trap(s) and just suggest the we should all be pleased with the 1/3 drop in the price of.crude oil. Cheap food, cheap water, cheap energy. All lead to a happy country and a strong economy.

11 Sep 08 - 08:17 PM (#2437871)
Subject: RE: BS: October surprise: Bin Laden captured?
From: Joe_F

I've said it before, and I'll say it again: The most likely & effective October surprise would be a terrorist attack *foiled* by illegal means.

11 Sep 08 - 08:23 PM (#2437875)
Subject: RE: BS: October surprise: Bin Laden captured?
From: olddude

I wish I had what Bob is smokin
he is in a much better place

11 Sep 08 - 08:25 PM (#2437878)
Subject: RE: BS: October surprise: Bin Laden captured?
From: Mrrzy

Man, it would be just like them.

Anybody remember the Sept 11th conspiracy South Park, where the Sept 11th conspiracy was the *real* government conspiracy?

11 Sep 08 - 08:26 PM (#2437881)
Subject: RE: BS: October surprise: Bin Laden captured?
From: Charley Noble

Bush will do anything to salvage his "legacy" as President. That is his highest priority, not whether McKain gets elected. If he can manage to capture of exterminate Bin Laden before he leaves office, nothing would make him happier.

Bin Laden is no doubt also aware of that and should be well dug in, probably in a luxury condo in Islamabad or Miami.

Marginal votes who are impressed with Palin would also be very impressed with the capture or extermination of Bin Laden.

Charley Noble

11 Sep 08 - 10:23 PM (#2437947)
Subject: RE: BS: October surprise: Bin Laden captured?
From: GUEST,heric

Olbermann's article is based on a trick at the outset. McCain didn't say "I know how to capture (or kill) Bin Laden." He said "I know how to improve our capabilities so that we will capture Osama bin Laden." There's a world of difference between the two statements.

11 Sep 08 - 10:27 PM (#2437951)
Subject: RE: BS: October surprise: Bin Laden captured?
From: The Fooles Troupe

"Marginal votes who are impressed with Palin would also be very impressed with the capture or extermination of Bin Laden."

They would also be very impressed with such a claim made with insufficient time before the voting takes place to have it verified... whether he IS or not... :-)

11 Sep 08 - 11:07 PM (#2437971)
Subject: RE: BS: October surprise: Bin Laden captured?
From: Little Hawk

Another possible October surprise. Chongo admits he has been having an inter-species affair for several months with his human campaign manager, the lovely Renata Carson, further admits that he never really wanted to be president anyway, further admits that he has an ongoing alcoholism problem and questionable morals, resigns his candidacy forthwith, and endorses McCain (for a suitable monetary inducement...of at least 6 figures).

11 Sep 08 - 11:26 PM (#2437983)
Subject: RE: BS: October surprise: Bin Laden captured?
From: katlaughing

They've got too much vested interest in keeping that dog hunting to take a chance, raise a ruckus, and then have McCain lose. The big companies they are in bed with, that are reaping all kinds of dollars by being over there, will keep them from doing so.

12 Sep 08 - 02:17 AM (#2438032)
Subject: RE: BS: October surprise: Bin Laden captured?
From: Amos

A lot of these hypotheticals would be effective on those inclined to be terrorized. This includes those who sublimate their terror into snarling and sniping and sliming. It's a thin veneer.


A