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20 Oct 08 - 12:14 PM (#2470832) Subject: BS: Alternative explanation, Bradley Effect From: jimmyt I heard an alternative explanation to the "Bradley Effect" that in fact is not a racist one, and it makes sense to me. The likelihood that people may be silent or seem to support Obama because of social or union pressure, but will ultimately support John McCain due to the concern that if they discuss their decision with others they will be seen as racist. It seems to be completely plausible to me that this will undoubtedly be how many people react when they go to the polling place and they are not racist at all. |
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20 Oct 08 - 12:46 PM (#2470878) Subject: RE: BS: Alternative explanation, Bradley Effect From: Ebbie JimmyT, in what manner is that not racist? Whether one acts out of racist fears in oneself or acts out of racist fears perceived in someone else seems racist to me. (But in any case, Hi, Jimmy!) |
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20 Oct 08 - 12:57 PM (#2470888) Subject: RE: BS: Alternative explanation, Bradley Effect From: CarolC They're also discussing the possibility of a "reverse Bradley effect", in which people are afraid to admit to their peers that they will be voting for Obama (one can guess the reasons they don't feel free to be open about their support for Obama), and while they tell people they're voting for McCain, they will in fact, vote for Obama. I heard some people say they think there will be a lot of people who do this. Obama said he thinks the two different effects will probably cancel each other out. |
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20 Oct 08 - 12:59 PM (#2470891) Subject: RE: BS: Alternative explanation, Bradley Effect From: McGrath of Harlow It might work that way for individuals - but I'd have thought it'd be balanced out (at least) by other people embarrassed to admit they were voting for Obama, because of social pressures. (I can't see where "union pressures" come into it with polls that aren't carried out by unions.) But I can't agree with Ebbie - if people are worried lest they are falsely seen as racist, and over-compensate as a result, this is a reflection of the fact they live in a society where racism is a factor, but it isn't itself an expression of racism. |
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20 Oct 08 - 01:08 PM (#2470902) Subject: RE: BS: Alternative explanation, Bradley Effect From: jimmyt HI Ebbie |
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20 Oct 08 - 01:21 PM (#2470910) Subject: RE: BS: Alternative explanation, Bradley Effect From: Rapparee Polls taken before some of the Primaries showed that Obama was either slightly behind or dead even; he then went on to win these Primaries by a factor larger than the percentage of error. In short, it was a sort of "Reverse-Bradley-Effect." |
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20 Oct 08 - 01:33 PM (#2470923) Subject: RE: BS: Alternative explanation, Bradley Effect From: Amos A recent article by one who worked closely with Bradley rejects the concept of the Brady Effect as popularly disseminated. What BRadley Effect???? "As we're on the subject, we should free Tom Bradley's name from an association he would have abhorred. After all, he practiced the sort of politics whose goal was to bring people together, not to play up their differences. He was the opposite of the "Us vs. Them" politics so often cited as demonstrating the Bradley effect. I worked for Bradley in his 1973 mayoral campaign against Sam Yorty, the incumbent. Bradley was holding his own. But a key group, Jewish voters, was up for grabs. One Sunday, I drove Bradley to a banquet with a Jewish group. Walking in, I noticed many men wearing yarmulkes. I had one in my jacket and gave it to Bradley. He put it in his pocket. When the event began, Yorty was called to the podium and given a yarmulke, which he put on. Then Bradley was called up. When offered a yarmulke, he said, "I have my own," reached into his pocket, took it out and put it on. The response? Laughter, applause, smiles. It sent a message not of pandering — "I am one of you" — but rather, "We are all in this together." Bradley won the day and then the election. Over 20 years as mayor, he had the same effect on many diverse audiences. To me, that's the real Bradley effect. " |
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20 Oct 08 - 01:33 PM (#2470925) Subject: RE: BS: Alternative explanation, Bradley Effect From: jimmyt I'm not saying one way or the other as to whether this will factor in but only to offer the suggestion that the Bradley Effect, per se is not necessarily a racist issue but could easily be people voting for McCain privately so their friends and neighbors do not perceive them to be racist if they say publicly they will vote for McCain. |
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20 Oct 08 - 03:51 PM (#2471045) Subject: RE: BS: Alternative explanation, Bradley Effect From: McGrath of Harlow Those pollsters must be very intimidating to have that kind of impact... |
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20 Oct 08 - 04:20 PM (#2471077) Subject: RE: BS: Alternative explanation, Bradley Effect From: Rapparee I hang up on the telephoners and tell the ones polling in person to kiss off. |
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20 Oct 08 - 04:33 PM (#2471098) Subject: RE: BS: Alternative explanation, Bradley Effect From: Stilly River Sage I heard the most wonderful and amazing speech last week by Juan Williams of the Washington Post and National Public Radio (also, strangely, of Fox News. He said he is recognized by TV viewers and by radio listeners, but they're two distinct groups). Williams points out that 25% of the U.S. population is younger than 25. That in the not too distant future the minority groups, taken collectively, will be the majority. He talked about how women are making such inroads in work and schools (partly because so many boys drop out). It was an eye-opener. And I think a lot of people will have their eyes opened when these youthful and often minority voters go to the polls. Many of them are off the radar, with their unlisted cell phones and absence from the surveys being conducted. I think in this up-and-coming generation now there will be a lot easier acceptance of candidates of various races, genders, and sexual preferences. SRS |