|
15 Apr 04 - 03:25 AM (#1162127) Subject: BS: what are the odds? From: dianavan I just heard on the local news (BC) that on her birthday, the daughter and step-daughter of a grandmother in Vancouver; gave birth to babies on the same day - to the minute! Were they both female? Separate hospitals? Caesarian? Let me know if you hear the details. I wasn't listening carefully enough. |
|
15 Apr 04 - 03:40 AM (#1162135) Subject: RE: BS: what are the odds? From: jacqui.c Kendall here, question, are you asking if the babies are both female, or the mothers? |
|
15 Apr 04 - 03:46 AM (#1162141) Subject: RE: BS: what are the odds? From: dianavan :>) The babies, of course. |
|
15 Apr 04 - 03:56 AM (#1162147) Subject: RE: BS: what are the odds? From: Nigel Parsons The odds are not that high against. The papers may state that it's a phenomenal coincidence, but there are hundreds of thousands of births a day or two apart which they never report. Just as in any random group of 30 or more people there is likely to be some sharing of birthdays. If the newspapers see just the two people who happen to share a birthday then they'll quote it as a 1 in 365¼ chance*, ignoring the fact that the other 28 people present make it better than 50/50 *actually the papers are likely to forget about leap years! Nigel |
|
15 Apr 04 - 04:36 AM (#1162168) Subject: RE: BS: what are the odds? From: Wolfgang Just to add a bit to what Nigel has posted. How high the odds actually are depends upon the size of the sample you consider (and without that information there is no meaningful answer to your question). The odds that this will happen to you when you are granny are extremely low. The odds that this will happen again next year in Vancouver are higher but still low. The odds that this event will happen again any place in North America during the next decade are reasonably high. The odds that a similar worthwhile reporting thing (like happens to a grandad; or happens to two daughters; or happens at the day of the marriage; or or or) with births happens next dacade anywhere is as close to certainty as anyone wishes. Wolfgang |
|
15 Apr 04 - 04:37 AM (#1162169) Subject: RE: BS: what are the odds? From: Gurney To quote from a Terry Pratchett novel: "Million to one chances happen nine times out of ten!" However. Dianavan, that must have been a hell of a good party. |
|
15 Apr 04 - 04:59 AM (#1162183) Subject: RE: BS: what are the odds? From: Nigel Parsons Wolfgang: if you re-read the first post yo'll see it didn't happen to a granny. It happened to a granny's daughter & step-daughter. It is not even clear whether she was a granny (or just a mother/ step-mother) before these momentous events Nigel |
|
15 Apr 04 - 05:01 AM (#1162186) Subject: RE: BS: what are the odds? From: Ebbie Odds are odd, so to speak. My exhusband has an experience in point. He has brothers who are twins. His daughter (my daughter) was supposed to be a twin; his daughter has twins [boy/girl]. His son and his wife have twins [boys]. His stepdaughter (no relation) has twins [girls]. Each of these pairs are fraternal, rather than identical. |
|
15 Apr 04 - 08:45 AM (#1162291) Subject: RE: BS: what are the odds? From: Amos And the births were not just on the same days as the grandmother's birthday but "to the minute". The number of people born in any given minute must be nuch lower. Don't have any figures, though. A |
|
15 Apr 04 - 09:06 AM (#1162310) Subject: RE: BS: what are the odds? From: GUEST though if the two ladies spent a lot of time in each others company the odds of their having their babies at or nearly at the same time go up. it's a pheremone thing |
|
15 Apr 04 - 02:03 PM (#1162557) Subject: RE: BS: what are the odds? From: Peace Odds are 100% after the fact. |
|
16 Apr 04 - 02:29 AM (#1162896) Subject: RE: BS: what are the odds? From: dianavan brucie - ...but what are the odds that it will happen again in the next 1000 years? |
|
16 Apr 04 - 04:33 AM (#1162951) Subject: RE: BS: what are the odds? From: Bee-dubya-ell In addition to the "pheremone thing" GUEST mentions, sisters often discuss family planning matters with each other and may both decide to "go off the pill" at the same time. |
|
16 Apr 04 - 04:54 AM (#1162958) Subject: RE: BS: what are the odds? From: Wolfgang A very rough calculation (disregarding minor things like leap years): (1) Let us assume on average a five year time period during which two grandchildren to the same woman are born. (2) Let us assume when they say 'the same minute' in the newspapers they don't mean it verbatim, and that the timing of births is often not done exactly: let's say 10 minutes real time could still lead to reports of 'in the same minute'. (3) Let's be very generous and assume only one living grandma per child (if not there would be two chances for to coincide with a granny's birthday). (4) Let us assume only one cousin (to the same grandma) to a child being born within a five year period (some will have no cousin at all, some will have several within that period). Then: Any particular child has a 1 in 365 chance of being born on their only still living grandma's birthday. What are the chances that a cousin and grandchild to the same grandma is born within the same 10 minutes? In five years there are 5 x 365 x 24 x 6 10 minute time slots and that's 262,800. So the chances that a cousing and grandchild to the same grandma is born within 10 minutes to one particular child is roughly 1 in 250,000. Now, of course, that has to be multiplied with the chances of the particular child to be born at her only surviving granny's birthday, 1 in 365, leading very roughly to 1 in 100,000,000. That are the chances that this can happen to one particular child born. How mayn babies are born each year worldwide? For a rough estimation I have taken the number of babies born in the USA only (4,000,000 per year) have taken 6,000,000,000 as the world's population, have use the knowledge that most places the birthrate is slightly higher than in the USA and came to a rough estimate of 100,000,000 infants born worldwide per year. With 100,000,000 babies per year born worldwide and each having a 1 in a hundred millions chance to have that particular pattern reported you will very roughly have such an event once per year (none in some years, more than one in others). The order of magnitude I'm confident is roughly correct. So if you go down to exactly the same minute you'll have it happen about once per ten years. But if you assume that the same coincidence would be equally newsworthy for grandads or for being exactly one year between the two births or... (whatever seems a reportable event) then the probability of one of many different coincidences happening more often then once a year quickly increases. The probability of the one particular event happening again at least once in the next 1000 years is as close to certain as you could wish. What goes wrong in many heads is this: The probability of one particular event can be extremely low, so you are correct to feel certain for all practical purposes that it will not happen to you in the next year (e.g., winning the Jackpot of a big national lottery). However, if one looks instead at the probability of a very rare event happening to at least one of many persons at many tries the tiny single event probabilities quickly add up to impressively high probabilities (e.g., the Jackpot being won by any of the Americans going for it). These high probabilities are notoriously underestimated by most lay persons which can lead to the illusion of seeing above chance patterns even in purely chance events. Wolfgang |
|
16 Apr 04 - 03:26 PM (#1163412) Subject: RE: BS: what are the odds? From: Chief Chaos It has to at least be probable to have happened or to happen otherwise there wouldn't be odds now would there? |
|
16 Apr 04 - 03:37 PM (#1163424) Subject: RE: BS: what are the odds? From: GUEST,Blind DRunk in Blind River The odds are like reaesonabally good that I will find a few free beer and get laid before midnight. that is what I figure. I am an optomeist, eh? - BDiBR |
|
17 Apr 04 - 02:34 PM (#1163876) Subject: RE: BS: what are the odds? From: Peace There you are, you shithead. So, you never write, you never call. What is it with you? And one more thing: stay the hell away from Little Hawk's goat. She is spoken for. Yes, you are being hopeful. Free beer is hard to find. And I mean it about the goat. Stay away from her. Ask LH for the Rosie doll. Good to see you back. |
|
17 Apr 04 - 02:52 PM (#1163893) Subject: RE: BS: what are the odds? From: Peace For those of you who are interested in the odds. Stand somewhere and mark down the final two digits on the license plates of the next twenty cars that pass. Give four to one odds that two of the last sets of two digits will match. Do not specify two digits, simply say that two will be the same. There are 100 possible two-digit numbers going from 00 to 99. Two will match. However, ensure with your betting partner that you play seven times. Therefore, you will pay four dollars if no two numbers match. The person with whom you bet will give you one dollar each time they do. You will make a few bucks. |
|
17 Apr 04 - 02:57 PM (#1163894) Subject: RE: BS: what are the odds? From: GUEST,Blind DRunk in Blind River I am like touched that you renember me man! Its like been awhile eh? I am back in circleation now eh? This town did'nt know what they were lie\k bmissing untal I was gone. LIsen...man...I don't flip goats!!! So get off my flippin case about that. I did mangaege t o scrwonge a few beer but gettin layed turned out to be a little harder...well, not hard enuff...know what I mean? ARF! ARF! (that was a joke eh?) - BDiRB |
|
17 Apr 04 - 04:39 PM (#1163944) Subject: RE: BS: what are the odds? From: Peace I asked about you on one of the "Has anyone heard from" threads. I am a happy guy that you have reappeared. Missed you. Enjoy your humour. Makes me happy to learn I will not have much competition for the goat. Gets lonely in Alberta. |
|
18 Apr 04 - 03:14 PM (#1164556) Subject: RE: BS: what are the odds? From: Little Hawk The goat? I don't know what's gone wrong. Maybe she got caught by a cougar or something! (Heaven forbid.) I gave her a map and a perfectly good set of directions and pointed her west. I hope she did not attempt to swim Georgian Bay. - LH |
|
19 Apr 04 - 05:31 AM (#1165006) Subject: RE: BS: what are the odds? From: v I don't understand why - if 2 twin girls are born in canada - it will make a difference in overall general? Twins or not twins - what is the viable point that we need to be concerned if they were born as twins, or not? are they both future rocket scientists, or paranormals? what is so special about them? curiously, v |
|
19 Apr 04 - 06:04 AM (#1165024) Subject: RE: BS: what are the odds? From: Georgiansilver The odds of it happening again at any time are 50-50. It either will or it wont. It could happen tomorrow, next week, next year, next decade, next century, next millenium....or not so 50-50 chance |
|
19 Apr 04 - 06:16 AM (#1165032) Subject: RE: BS: what are the odds? From: Wolfgang Georgiansilver, you're approach to probability is out of fashion since about 400 years, and for very good reasons. Apply your thinking to winning the lottery jackpot next week. It either will happen or not. 50-50 then. Confidence tricksters are looking for people sharing your thinking. Wolfgang |
|
19 Apr 04 - 06:17 AM (#1165033) Subject: RE: BS: what are the odds? From: Deckman Have you ever noticed that all newborn babies look like frogs? Just thought I'd throw that out. Bob |
|
19 Apr 04 - 06:42 AM (#1165046) Subject: RE: BS: what are the odds? From: Georgiansilver Yes..If I decided to buy a ticket for the lottery..I would do so..thinking I would either win or lose.....50-50 chance |
|
19 Apr 04 - 11:45 AM (#1165275) Subject: RE: BS: what are the odds? From: Murray MacLeod Just to add again to Nigel's post above, the number of people required to make it more likely than not that at least two share the same birthday is only 23. Wolfgang, Georgiansilver is winding you up, pay no attention ... |
|
20 Apr 04 - 01:34 AM (#1165757) Subject: RE: BS: what are the odds? From: dianavan Deckman - My son looked like a cricket. He's much better looking now. |
|
20 Apr 04 - 07:08 AM (#1165938) Subject: RE: BS: what are the odds? From: GUEST,noddy take two packs of cards and keeping them separate shuffle each pack. Put each pack face down and turn over a card from each pack similtaneously, going through the packs. Pay five to one if you do not get any cards matching and collect evens for every card match. Nice easy way to make money! |
|
20 Apr 04 - 07:58 AM (#1165967) Subject: RE: BS: what are the odds? From: Wolfgang Lets play a quicker variant, Noddy. Only the four aces of the two games. Everything else as laid down in your rules. Wolfgang |
|
20 Apr 04 - 08:58 AM (#1166030) Subject: RE: BS: what are the odds? From: Pied Piper Here's another stats scam. Find a 4 horse race run once a week and place the names of each of next week's contestants in 4 sets of envelopes and post one of to anyone (the more the merrier) that bets. Next week when you know the winner of last weeks race do the same with this weeks entrants but only send them to the addresses that got the winner last week. Repeat until you have a handful of punters that think your psychic and charge them £100 for the next winner, post off the letters and leave town before the race. You need to start with a sizable group initially as it reduces to a quarter every cycle. PP |