BS: Kerry beats Bush in latest nat'l poll

10 Jun 04 - 11:47 AM (#1204383)
Subject: BS: Kerry beats Bush in latest nat'l poll
From: GUEST

Pretty decisively, it appears. Today's LA Times is saying there has been a significant shift among voters towards Kerry and away from Bush:

"More than one-third of those questioned in the nationwide poll said they didn't know enough about Kerry to decide whether he would be a better president than Bush. And when asked which candidate was more likely to flip-flop on issues, almost twice as many named Kerry than Bush.

Yet Kerry led Bush by 51% to 44% nationally in a two-way matchup, and by 48% to 42% in a three-way race, with independent Ralph Nader drawing 4%.

Lifting Kerry is a powerful tailwind of dissatisfaction with the nation's course and Bush's answers for challenges at home and abroad. Nearly three-fifths believe the nation is on the wrong track, the highest level a Times poll has recorded during Bush's presidency.

Also, 56% said America "needs to move in a new direction" because Bush's policies have not improved the country. Just 39% say America is better off because of his agenda.

Majorities disapprove of Bush's handling of the economy and Iraq, despite recent encouraging news on both fronts."

Complete story can be read (registration required) here:

"Voters Shift in Favor of Kerry"

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10 Jun 04 - 11:56 AM (#1204394)
Subject: RE: BS: Kerry beats Bush in latest nat'l poll
From: Ebbie

I've been wondering what the bush would do if his approval rating dropped to, say, 30%. Surely no one would stand for election with ratings that low? It seems like another Republican would jump into the fray.

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10 Jun 04 - 12:02 PM (#1204399)
Subject: RE: BS: Kerry beats Bush in latest nat'l poll
From: McGrath of Harlow

Yet Kerry led Bush by 51% to 44% nationally in a two-way matchup, and by 48% to 42% in a three-way race, with independent Ralph Nader drawing 4%.

On the face of that, it seems to indicate that if Nader stays in the race, he'll be drawing voters more or less equally from Bush and Kerry.

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10 Jun 04 - 12:08 PM (#1204403)
Subject: RE: BS: Kerry beats Bush in latest nat'l poll
From: Uncle_DaveO

Despite all the bad news from Iraq and Afghanistan, my main reasons for vplanning to vote against the shrub and in favor or almost anyone else have to do with his domestic policies. Tax relief for the rich, anti-environmental, anti-Choice... and the list goes on and on.

Dave Oesterreich

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10 Jun 04 - 12:42 PM (#1204426)
Subject: RE: BS: Kerry beats Bush in latest nat'l poll
From: Don Firth

Beware the October Surprise. It's happened before.

Check the links on this web site. Here is a particularly ominous one.

Don Firth

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10 Jun 04 - 12:48 PM (#1204430)
Subject: RE: BS: Kerry beats Bush in latest nat'l poll
From: McGrath of Harlow

My assumption all along has been that Al Qaida will be planning something designed to help Bush win.

The question is, will enough people recognise it for what it is?

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10 Jun 04 - 12:51 PM (#1204432)
Subject: RE: BS: Kerry beats Bush in latest nat'l poll
From: GUEST

The reason why the Bush homeland team keeps harping about impending doom and gloom terrorist attacks, is because they were caught with their pants down on 9/11. By continuing to build anxiety over an impending attack which may never come, they can use an attack to their political advantage immediately.

But the fact remains, there cannot be another 9/11 for a good decade at least, because the main success of the attacks was the surprise factor--we didn't see it coming, unlike Europe, Africa, and the Middle East, where these sorts of attacks have been occurring for decades. However, we shouldn't assume that a terrorist attack close to the election will automatically benefit Bush, especially if the race remains close all the way. Spain proved that the front runner who is a strong conservative and militarist, can also lose and election turn on a dime.

I think if a second massive terror attack happens in the US between now and November, that Kerry will benefit at this point, not Bush.

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10 Jun 04 - 12:58 PM (#1204437)
Subject: RE: BS: Kerry beats Bush in latest nat'l poll
From: Rapparee

Bush withdraws, McCain is nominated.... Nah, not likely.

I think that there has been a fundamental change in the thinking of the people of the US since September 11, 2003. The realization that terror tactics are real has hit home, and more importantly, people realize that there is little the government can do to protect them.

Suspension of the Constitution is so highly unlikely that it approaches impossible. Should it be tried, there would be Civil War and the "cure" would be worse than the "disease."

But if you want a scenario: suppose that polling places in the East were attacked while voting was going on, but BEFORE voting in the West commenced. What effect would that have on the Western US and the whole election?

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10 Jun 04 - 01:11 PM (#1204446)
Subject: RE: BS: Kerry beats Bush in latest nat'l poll
From: Ebbie

Gads. I punched in a terrorist attack that would postpone the US election as the most serious outcome and then went back and read others' observations. I guess I'm not at all alone in thinking that it could happen.

As fast as time goes for me these days, I'm anticipating putting the election behind us very soon. I want the shrub and all his bushes out of there.

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10 Jun 04 - 01:29 PM (#1204462)
Subject: RE: BS: Kerry beats Bush in latest nat'l poll
From: McGrath of Harlow

The Spanish election result was probably crucially affected by the transparent efforts by the outgoing government to fool people that the bombing had been done by ETA, which in the circumstances of Spanish politics, would have helped them get votes. And it was such a cynical attempt in face of an apalling tragedy that it just sickened people, in a relatvely politcally aware elefctorate.

It may be a false impression, but the impression I have always got is that American voters aren't likely to think in very subtle terms. "That's an attack on America - all true Americans will stand behind the President!"

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10 Jun 04 - 01:47 PM (#1204474)
Subject: RE: BS: Kerry beats Bush in latest nat'l poll
From: GUEST

Look, I think it is ridiculous to start speculating about doomsday scenarios, just because Kerry is starting to pull ahead of Bush in the polls. That is really too much.

The point is, Bush is looking pretty vulnerable at this point. Despite the economic business recovery, his numbers aren't going up with the supposedly 'good' economic news. The reason why is because the middle class isn't feeling prosperous. The reasons why aren't at all complex: it is the cost of goods and services the middle class is wholly dependent upon going up, and their wages remaining stagnant or going down.

Those who bought homes during the real estate bubble are now staring deflation of their property values in the face. Interest rates were phenomenally low, but the cost of their real estate purchases were ridiculously high. But they bought homes anyway. They continued to spend, spend, spend money they didn't have because the credit market was so loose, they were able to buy high end luxury consumer goods like SUVs, plasma TVs, etc they otherwise couldn't afford. But now, their middle class jobs are being downsized and outsourced overseas, at the same time that the real costs of education, health care, and transportation are skyrocketing, driving inflation in those sectors. And the interest rates on those credit cards, ARMS, etc. are getting ready to rise too.

Americans aren't always idiots, just most the time. Some sense that both inflation AND deflation are breathing down our necks. They sense the recovery is no good for workers, including middle class workers, because people aren't getting good paying jobs to replace the ones they or the people they know, have lost. If they are working at all. They see friends and relatives who once earned $50,000+ working minimum wage jobs, and their teenagers and college grads are unable to get much, if any work at all.

It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out that this was never a sustainable 'prosperity' for the working and middle class under Reagan/Bush and Clinton. But it sure has been a prosperous 205 year run for the wealthy.

When exactly the middle class is going to wake up and figure out that their prosperity isn't of concern to the Republican elite, I don't really know. It may take four more years of greed, graft, corruption, disastrous policymaking, and demonizing of government while canonizing business, etc. and the American people REALLY suffering, and not just the poor and working poor, for the US cultural conservatives to lose their grip on power.

Kerry could just as easily lose in November as win, at this point. Just because the tide is going out on Bush now, doesn't mean it won't come back in for him by November. It would take a serious liberal and progressive backlash on the scale of the conservative backlash of 1980, 1984, and 1996, to really turn the tide back towards liberal social and economic values. But it will turn, just like it did when FDR was elected after a similar run of corrupt Republican presidents.

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10 Jun 04 - 01:52 PM (#1204477)
Subject: RE: BS: Kerry beats Bush in latest nat'l poll
From: Amos

Re October Surprise, some interesting facts about corruption in the halls of power. Note the early involvement of the Bush forces even then.
A

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10 Jun 04 - 01:55 PM (#1204482)
Subject: RE: BS: Kerry beats Bush in latest nat'l poll
From: GUEST

"But it sure has been a prosperous 205 year run for the wealthy."

!!!

Of course, that should read '25 year run'. It just seems like 205 years.

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10 Jun 04 - 01:59 PM (#1204486)
Subject: RE: BS: Kerry beats Bush in latest nat'l poll
From: Nerd

I disagree, McGrath. I mean to say, I agree with what you say at first, that the Spanish situation was NOT an example of terrorists achieving their end by changing the outcome of an election, it was an example of the outgoing government shooting itself in the foot by trying to take advantage of the situation and getting caught.

What I disagree with is the idea that Americans will automatically stand behind the President. Last time, the attack made people realize that even under adverse circumstances, the country would not fall apart just because Bush was in office. Bush at that time was unpopular because he had won on a technicality, and people were calling him incompetent and stupid. The 9-11 attacks proved that this didn't matter, that he could still be a reassuring daddy figure, which is what many people want in such cicumstances, and that his people would keep things running. So about 5-10 percent of the people who had voted for Gore began to "approve" of Bush, giving him strong approval ratings. Remember, all it takes is a relatively small shift like this in US politics, where 50-50 is a tie and 60-40 is a massive landslide.

What has happened since 2001 is that many of those people who began approving of Bush got screwed. Bush has slammed a hard-right agenda through Congress, deceived our elderly with a bogus medical bill, declared a war that many of us didn't want and pursued it in a way that no one can fathom, etc. Some people cling to the idea that we have pursued this course to make ourselves safer. Another terror attack will make those people say "all this, and he STILL can't prevent another attack?" (As Bush so memorably put it: "fool me once shame on you, fool me twice and...I...can't get fooled again, can't get fooled again!") Other voters are already shifting, as the polls show.

I think a terror attack would be disastrous for Bush, but dragging up Osama Bin Laden or trumping up some phony WMD evidence in Iraq could once again reassure people that he is a good daddy, and win him the election.

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10 Jun 04 - 02:18 PM (#1204498)
Subject: RE: BS: Kerry beats Bush in latest nat'l poll
From: GUEST

Also, when the 9/11 attack occurred, we were a long way from an upcoming election, and there was a tremendous need for the country to pull together despite the bitterness over the theft of the election by the Bush team in Florida and the Supreme Court.

An attack on the any country always coalesces public opinion behind the current leaders. That is not only natural, but it is almost always necessary, regardless of how effective or ineffective the leadership is. But that unity and support given in the wake of an attack like 9/11 should never be misconstrued to mean that the electorate will remain behind that leadership at the next election.

Elections aren't about military adventurism, unless the military adventurism has gotten out of hand, as it had in Vietnam, and is in Iraq. The badly managed war, and the fact that the economic recovery is only benefiting the wealthy and the mulit-national corporations they rule, has left people nervous and mistrustful about Bush. His refusal to see the light, as Reagan did when he reversed his own tax cuts by raising taxes in order to get re-elected, is what is going to kill Bush if he ends up losing in Nov.

Just think, if Bush, et al had stopped at Afghanistan and made some serious progress on the intelligence front, hadn't created this horrendously arrogant siege mentalite that is being used to justify civil and human rights abuses at home and abroad, and if Bush had been flexible about reversing some of the tax cuts, he would probably be unbeatable right now in the same way Reagan become unbeatable just in time for the 1984 election campaign.

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10 Jun 04 - 02:52 PM (#1204514)
Subject: RE: BS: Kerry beats Bush in latest nat'l poll
From: GUEST,Blackcatter

There doesn't need to ba another 9/11 type attack in the U.S. The terrorists got what they wanted. A successful statement that we are vulnerable. And the billions of $$ we've spent since then to protect us doesn't mean a lot - sure, it's be difficult for the same thing to happen, but to get a large amount of explosives and blow up a building wouldn't be that difficult still.

Nobody in the U.S. seriously beleives we are even close to being completely protected from a major terrorist attack.

That's what terrorists wanted. We are vulnerable. Heck, the current government tells us that to scare us as well - so they can quietly install a sort of military dictatorship.

The olny way to change anything is to stop pissing off those people who are willing to be terrorists. I don't know how good Kerry will be at that, but at least he doesn't have the rhetoric of the current pretender.

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10 Jun 04 - 06:56 PM (#1204684)
Subject: RE: BS: Kerry beats Bush in latest nat'l poll
From: Peace

The only poll that matters is the one in November.

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10 Jun 04 - 07:59 PM (#1204716)
Subject: RE: BS: Kerry beats Bush in latest nat'l poll
From: DougR

McGrath: you think Usama's bunch wants Bush to win? Surely you jest.

They would love to have an anti-war activist as president of the U. S. Bush does not fit that description but his opponent does.

DougR

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10 Jun 04 - 08:10 PM (#1204727)
Subject: RE: BS: Kerry beats Bush in latest nat'l poll
From: DougR

I suggest the title of this thread be changed to read, "Kerry beats Bush in L. A. Times poll.

There are lots o=f national polls and seldom do they all come up with the same figures. Most polls I have seen show them running even steven.

DougR

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10 Jun 04 - 11:02 PM (#1204817)
Subject: RE: BS: Kerry beats Bush in latest nat'l poll
From: GUEST,guest from NW

"They would love to have an anti-war activist as president of the U. S. Bush does not fit that description but his
opponent does."

the part of his opponent's description you conveniently omitted was "war hero" or "decorated military veteran" or "one who voluntarily served his country in time of war, served honorably and has the records to prove it, and exercised his constitutional rights and duties as a citizen by speaking out against the war after he served". or did you just forget that?

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10 Jun 04 - 11:29 PM (#1204825)
Subject: RE: BS: Kerry beats Bush in latest nat'l poll
From: Ebbie

Nah, he meant nothin' by it; "anti-war activist' rolls off the tongue so much more smoothly. Heaven forbid that one should stop and think.

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10 Jun 04 - 11:40 PM (#1204833)
Subject: RE: BS: Kerry beats Bush in latest nat'l poll
From: Bobert

Actually, Dougie. Bush is the best thing that ever happened to his cousin, Osoma. Recruiting was real tough until Bush. That "Bring it on" couldn't have done more for the bin Laden folk... When they first heard that come from Bush's mouth I'm sure there were high-fives all over the bin Laden cave...

No, quite the contrary. Bin Laden don't want no part of Kerry. No family ties. No Christmas card exchnaging. No nuthin...

Bobert

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11 Jun 04 - 03:13 AM (#1204899)
Subject: RE: BS: Kerry beats Bush in latest nat'l poll
From: dianavan

DougR - When are going to realize that the Saudis (including their mercenary son, Bin Laden) are in the same camp as Bush? Of course they think they are using Bush and Bush thinks he's using them but they are all into amassing wealth and fortune. None of them give two shits about you or me.

Sometimes I wonder why Bushites are so blind. Is it because they need a father figure no matter what?

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11 Jun 04 - 06:46 AM (#1204979)
Subject: RE: BS: Kerry beats Bush in latest nat'l poll
From: McGrath of Harlow

"Surely you jest."

No, I don't. I am quite serious about this. Body counts don't decide who is winning in a conflict like this, any more than they do in a game of chess.

So far as I can see the policies adopted by the Bush adninistration have helped the aims of Al Qaida. The fact that a number of its supporters and fans have been jailed and killed and a few of its training facilities have been destroyed shouldn't blind people to the truth that Al Qaida is probably operationally stronger than ever, that the invasion of Iraq has made it possible to operate far more freely there than previously, and that antagonism towards the USA has grown exponentially.

Those aren't just my opinions - they are in line with what the Internnational Institute of Strategic Studies has been saying - here, for example:

'The war in Iraq has "focused the energies and resources of al Qaida and its followers while diluting those of the global counter-terrorism coalition", the International Institute for Strategic Studies argued.

Despite the killing or capture of around 2,000 al Qaida fighters, including some key figures, the group remains a powerhouse for Islamic terrorists operating in more than 60 countries, the IISS annual Strategic Survey warned.'

If you are stung by a bee the last thing you want to do is to charge out and kick over the beehive. You use your head, not your feet.

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11 Jun 04 - 08:26 AM (#1205038)
Subject: RE: BS: Kerry beats Bush in latest nat'l poll
From: Bobert

I wouldn't expect a quick response from the Bushites, McG... Their spin folk are all in morning today over the death of their hero, RR...
This is causing some backups in the concoction department... But, rest assured, like evry other lie in their arsenal, they have bigger and better lies coming to cover the ones allready out there...

Hey, speaking of lies, did you see where the spinsters got stumped this week? Yup, seems that they got caught red handed in lieing about the number of "reported incidents of terror" for the year 2003. Yup, they even shot of their mouths about how "We're winning the war on terror!" last January. Problem is, they lied and now they are gonn ahve to revise that number which will show that 2003 was worse than the previous year!!!

I'm a little disappointed in the concoction folks fir throwing in the towel so quickly on this one since they always have Bill Clinton to blame for anything they can't lie their way out of... Go figure? Do ya think this lieing is starting to wear them down?















Nah... Just a pit stop.

Bobert

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11 Jun 04 - 09:29 AM (#1205088)
Subject: RE: BS: Kerry beats Bush in latest nat'l poll
From: GUEST,Larry K

Please- everybody calm down.   It is eternity till the election.   Polls will go up and down.   They mean nothing at this time. (I said the exact same thing last month when Bush was ahead)

We haven't had conventions yet.   We don't know who the vp will be for Kerry.   Will it be Hillary?   Will it be McCain?   Will it be Edwards?   Will it be Gorbachef?    We haven't had any debates yet.   To worry about polls know will only cause you undue stress.   There is plenty of time for stress later on.

In spain the polls shifted 10 points in 2 days after the train bombing. (at least I got a good song parody out of it "the trains in Spain cause terrorists to gain" Who knows what will happen in the next 5 months.   So relax.   Enjoy the summer.   Don't have a heart attack over two points in the poll.   Come back in the fall and then in the immortal words of Michael Buffer "Lets get ready to rumble"

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11 Jun 04 - 02:58 PM (#1205309)
Subject: RE: BS: Kerry beats Bush in latest nat'l poll
From: DougR

So, TIA and McGrath, you blame the increase in terrorism on Bush's kicking over the Bee's hive? How ridiculous. Better to hide one's head in the sand and hope the bad old terrorists just go away, eh?

Next thing you know you will be seeing a "City on a hill" or something.

DougR

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11 Jun 04 - 04:29 PM (#1205364)
Subject: RE: BS: Kerry beats Bush in latest nat'l poll
From: TIA

Nope, didn't say any such thing. I implied that someone is spinning the hell out of the actual statistics on terrorism to preserve Bush's "safer more secure" BS which is apparently the only thing that keeps him ahead in some recent polls.

Now, to your point:

1) Bush did kick over the beehive.

2) This did cause an increase in terrorism.

3) Claiming that it is either kick over the beehive or put your head in the sand (which I believe you did claim above, but I don't wish to put words in your mouth) is an example of the false dichotomy logical fallacy. Some of us believe there were other, more effective (and less deadly to Americans, Brits and all other nationalities) ways to combat terrorism. Furthermore, many active, high ranking, well informed experts in the military believe that kicking over the beehive significantly *detracted* from combating terrorism.

Which brings me back to my point - the statistics do not support Bush's claim that he has made us safer and more secure, so we'd better twist those statistics. "Damn the truth, full speed ahead towards re-election. Our ideologue supporters will believe anything we say if we get Limbaugh, Hannity, Scarborough, Hume, etc. to repeat it enough."

Jeez.

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11 Jun 04 - 06:10 PM (#1205428)
Subject: RE: BS: Kerry beats Bush in latest nat'l poll
From: Don Firth

Little problem in geograpy here. I was under the impression that the beehive was located in Afghanistan. At least that's were bin Laden's training camps were. What did Iraq have to do with this?

And one thing that I thought everyone knew about kicking over beehives:   it tends to piss off the bees and make them more likely to sting.

Your geography and natural history lesson for the day.

Don Firth

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13 Jun 04 - 12:01 PM (#1206241)
Subject: RE: BS: Kerry beats Bush in latest nat'l poll
From: Peace

People have unwittingly bought into the notion that Afghanistan has something to do with Iraq. Stop saying shit like that. That's a Bush line. We ain't him, are we?

The more we say the two names in the same breath, the more we forget that Saudi Arabia has a part in this, but we don't want to mention that because they are a US ally. We tend to forget Sudan. We tend to forget Pakistan. We tend to forget that countires don't have friends, they have interests. We begin to buy into the really big lie that all this shit is being done to protect us. Right.

Hell, ya want to get terrorists, go get 'em. Special teams, kill the fu#kers, get out. But let's not start thinking this shit is counter-terrorist. It is anything but.

Bruce Murdoch

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13 Jun 04 - 12:06 PM (#1206246)
Subject: RE: BS: Kerry beats Bush in latest nat'l poll
From: Donuel

http://www.angelfire.com/md2/customviolins/bushkerry.jpg

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13 Jun 04 - 12:33 PM (#1206267)
Subject: RE: BS: Kerry beats Bush in latest nat'l poll
From: Amos

I'd characterize ti as running blindly into the beehive. The fact that we invaded Iraq has made it a locus for terrorist counteraction because they can disguise it as Iraqi. Or, hell it may well be Iraqi. If I were living there putting up with all this shit I would be half inclined to get me an AK47 myself. Note, I said half....

I certainly do not feel a helluva lot more secure in my person and possessions and so on than I did in September 01. For one thing my own government has taken on a level of antagonism not seen before toward average citizens, IMHO.


A

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13 Jun 04 - 01:10 PM (#1206288)
Subject: RE: BS: Kerry beats Bush in latest nat'l poll
From: kendall

It all boils down to this:
Those who vote decide nothing;
Those who COUNT the votes decide everything. (Joseph Stalin)

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13 Jun 04 - 02:40 PM (#1206315)
Subject: RE: BS: Kerry beats Bush in latest nat'l poll
From: Peace

Jeeze, kendall, sounds like the last presidential election. I hope it isn't a harbinger of what's to come in the next presidential election.

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13 Jun 04 - 07:21 PM (#1206499)
Subject: RE: BS: Kerry beats Bush in latest nat'l poll
From: Bobert

Diebold, anyone?

Bobert

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