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User Name Thread Name Subject Posted
Howard Jones BS: Whither Scotland, Northern Ireland? (164* d) RE: BS: Whither Scotland, Northern Ireland? 04 Jul 16


It's not a question of whether the referendum was unfair.It's just that it has an uncertain status in our political process. It's non-binding, so it's just a glorified opinion poll. Had it shown an unequivocal majority, either way, that would have sent a clear message to parliament. What it gave us was is a narrow majority, which may not now accurately reflect public opinion as a number of people have admitted they only voted Leave as a protest, or have changed their minds having realised that the promises made in the campaign are probably unachievable. Whether those numbers would be sufficient to reverse the decision if another referendum were to be held is unknowable without actually holding one, which isn't going to happen.

Having agreed to the referendum Parliament now finds itself more or less obliged to follow the result, against the wishes of around half the population who bothered to turn out and vote It would have been in the same position if Remain had one by a similar margin. This issue has divided the country.

Brexit must now happen, and those who called for it must now negotiate terms which achieve the benefits they promised. otherwise they will disappoint their own followers as well as all those who wished to remain. It's a very tall order, and one which I think will be very difficult, if not impossible. I hope I'm proved wrong.

As for N Ireland and Scotland, they are dragged into it whether they like it or not - that too is democracy. Whether they are now able or indeed willing to exit from the UK is another question, as is whether that would enable them to remain in the EU without a lengthy application process (which might not succeed). I think it is particularly difficult for N Ireland - despite the border question raised by Brexit and better relations with the Republic I suspect there is still strong resistance to union with it. Perhaps NI could affiliate to an independent Scotland?

I still find it surprising that an issue which until this referendum was raised was not really a priority for most people should have become so divisive, and now risks breaking up the UK, possibly Europe as well, and creates massive economic uncertainty just as we were beginning to emerge from a recession. Of course it creates opportunities as well as risks. Let's hope the pessimists, of whom I am one, are proved wrong.


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