BS: SARS

Subject: RE: BS: SARS
From: Burke
Date: 22 Apr 03 - 05:00 PM

Black walnut, thanks for the report. I've been wanting to get a handle on the human face of this while so far it has been numbers.

So far, the human face for me has been knowing friends who may or may not be there later this week. Also there is a large Library Convention scheduled there for late in June. In both cases it's trying to answer the question of "Should we go," based on little concrete knowledge.

That there is so much that is unknown is a big part of the problem. We don't know if people are contagious before they show symptoms. We don't know really how easily spread it is. The CDC says 'close personal contact' but that's vague enough to mean about anything.

My hope for all people is that the severe restrictions on things like your father-in-law's wait for surgery & niece having to go to ultasound alone will turn out to have been unnecessary. Given how the news changes daily, I don't think the precautions being taken now in Toronto are over-reaction. My hope is also that a vaccine can be developed quickly.

My fear is that the genie is alreay out of the box, SARS will get worse and it will eventually spread world wide. Quarantines may slow it, but not stop it. We will have severe problems if they do not find out how to stop the health care workes from getting sick. Until there's a vaccine we have a lot to worry about.

Subject: RE: BS: SARS
From: katlaughing
Date: 22 Apr 03 - 04:25 PM

I have just been reading up on this and haven't found too much mention of the economic ramifications, but from what I have read and heard it seems it is having a devastating effect on businesses, something I don't think has ever really been seen with influenza outbreaks, not on such a global scale.

One article from Canada said they now believe it can transmitted through sewage pipes, closed air spaces, and even on an elevator button. Health care workers who took precautions and wore regular masks were infected. They now have to wear TWO types of masks, gloves, and gowns, taking the outer ones off after seeing a patient.

One chilling thing I read said people are being told NOT to go to the hospital if they believe they are ill. They are being asked to stay at home. People are having all kinds of procedures delayed, as Black Walnut has pointed out.

BTW, Black Walnut, my daughter was confined to bed for 19 weeks with a difficult pregnancy of twins. It's tough on the mom to keep so idle and the dad to take care of her and everything else, but it really pays off when they are able to deliver healthy babies. I am sorry about your neice's husband not being able to be there with her for the weekly tests. May it all go as well for them as it did for my daughter and son-in-law.

Let's pay attention, people. This has an ominous, far-reaching feel to it.

kat

Subject: RE: BS: SARS
From: Cluin
Date: 22 Apr 03 - 02:42 PM

Forum Lurker, you have heard wrong. SARS is VERY infectious. That's why those who have it or are exposed to it are being quarantined. This virus can survive on objects outside the body for several hours and some researchers believe it can be passed on through airborne means (that's why lots of people are wearing masks in public).

It's true that it has been lethal mainly for those with already compromised immune systems or respiratory problems like athsma, emphysema, bronchitis, etc. or those not strong enough to survive it (like the elderly, infants, etc). Reasonably healthy adults could probably expect to just be hospitalized for several days and leave in a much-weakened condition, several pounds lighter. Think the hospitals and staff could accomodate the vast number of patients they'd receive if this thing does become an epidemic? They are already advising people not to come into Emerg with flu-like symptoms now, in case they infect more people there.

Subject: RE: BS: SARS
From: black walnut
Date: 22 Apr 03 - 02:34 PM

Forget the stats. SARS is not the flu. It's very serious. The hospitals are doing are doing their best to contain this, but as in most restrictions, there are leaks. Every newspaper's front page and every news programme on the radio includes the latest update on SARS. It's like listening for the weather report.

I and my loved ones have been affected by this outbreak in a myriad of ways, some minor, some major. Most of you do not live or work in Toronto. From a distance, it must seem like numbers and risks, but to me it's about the people I care about in my life.

* My father-in-law, bedridden from a stroke, is waiting for life-saving surgery - he hasn't even been able to see his surgeon since the beginning of the SARS restrictions. He is lonely; we are limited to only one family member per day to visit him at his residence.

* My niece's husband sits in worry on a park bench outside the hospital, not allowed to be with his wife during her weekly ultrasound- my niece is enduring a very stressful high risk pregnancy, with twins.

* I was unable to visit a music friend of mine (only 52 years old) when she was dying in hospital, and then, sadly, I was not able to go to her funeral last week, either, because I had a bit of a cough from allergies and didn't want to scare everyone.

* A friend's friend lost first his father, then a few weeks later, his mother, to SARS.

* Some of my friends are afraid to go on the subway, or to go out to a restaurant or a movie. I'm trying to keep living life around as 'normal' as possible, but you have to wonder if this is going to get better or worse. And if it just stays the same, that's bad enough.

~b.w.

Subject: RE: BS: SARS
From: GUEST
Date: 22 Apr 03 - 01:39 PM

IF it survives until FALL/WINTER we could expect a major epidemic in the Northern Hemisphere. Success in breaking its chain of contagion is racing a celestial clock.

Subject: RE: BS: SARS
From: Forum Lurker
Date: 22 Apr 03 - 10:56 AM

Burke-SARS is, from what I've heard, much less infectious than most strains of flu. With less than 3,500 people infected since the beginning of the outbreak, I don't imagine it will become very epidemic.

Subject: RE: BS: SARS
From: Burke
Date: 22 Apr 03 - 10:31 AM

Thanks, Guest. I was finding raw numbers but not the mortality rate on influenza. Your Los Angles figure would apply if everyone there actually got sick, right? Let us hope & pray it does not reach that proportion.

Mary, early on with SARS, I was hearing discussions on how many flu viruses originate in Southern China, as the SARS virus also seems to have. It a large populations of people living close to pigs & poultry provides a fertile area for spread of diseases & mutation of viruses. China has apparently had it since last fall, but they were not either acknowleding it internally or telling others.

It looks like the usual practices for protecting hospital workers is not adequate. This from the Globe & Mail.
Hospital staff working in Toronto-area SARS units will now be double-gloved and wear full face shields as concerns grow that the gear used so far has not been enough to protect health-care workers.

Also this Studies by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention suggest that, unlike most respiratory viruses medicine knows, the microbe behind SARS can survive up to 24 hours on inanimate objects, turning any surface into a possible point of disease transmission.

Subject: RE: BS: SARS
From: GUEST
Date: 22 Apr 03 - 07:35 AM

Pneumonia/influenza mortality in 1996 rate for the United States rate of 12.8 deaths per 100,000.
Data Sources: U.S. _ National Center for Health Statistics, CDC

Worldwide, SARS has infected 3,461 and killed 170, according to the World Health Organization for an approximate mortality rate of 5000 deaths per 100,000

In the Los Angeles area with 10 million people that would equate to 500,000 deaths.

Tamiflu is designed to prevent all common strains of the influenza virus from replicating. The replication process is what contributes to the worsening of symptoms in a person infected with the influenza virus. It is a neuraminidase inhibitor for treatment and prevention.

Look at their six viral lines of medications at http://www.gilead.com/wt/sec/advancet

Subject: RE: BS: SARS
From: black walnut
Date: 22 Apr 03 - 07:18 AM

Black Walnut, reporting to you from Toronto. Monitoring...no fever, cough due to allergies only. Off to work now. More later.

~b.w.

Subject: RE: BS: SARS
From: Jeri
Date: 22 Apr 03 - 06:58 AM

Viruses mutate all the time. That's one of the reasons people who get flu shots, get a new one each year - the flu viruses have changed. Cold viruses do the same but colds aren't a big deal for most people. This virus just happens to be deadlier. Not that it couldn't have been developed as a bio-weapon, but that's the least likely explanation at present. You can aim weapons.

Subject: RE: BS: SARS
From: GUEST
Date: 22 Apr 03 - 01:53 AM

GOOD NEWS

TAMAFLU manufactored by Gilead Pharmaceuticals is an anti-viral for influenza which could prove effective against SARS.

Subject: RE: BS: SARS
From: Cluin
Date: 21 Apr 03 - 11:56 PM

Yeah, you'd think the virus would've had the good manners to hold off till CNN was done with the war cover(-over-)age at least, right?

Subject: RE: BS: SARS
From: mg
Date: 21 Apr 03 - 11:50 PM

Is this a natural virus? The timing is sort of strange. mg

Subject: RE: BS: SARS
From: Sorcha
Date: 21 Apr 03 - 10:22 PM

I'm ignoring the whole thing. Oh well.

Subject: RE: BS: SARS
From: Ebbie
Date: 21 Apr 03 - 09:03 PM

Burke, I'm a Yank.

Subject: RE: BS: SARS
From: Burke
Date: 21 Apr 03 - 07:02 PM

The Globe & Mail has an article. It would seem the nurse should have known better.

When public health contacted the man, who works at an unidentified downtown Toronto hospital, and told him he should have quarantined himself, he became "obnoxious, threatening and belligerent," Dr. Kassam said.

It's bad enough, I think there's no need to bash Yankees on this.

Subject: RE: BS: SARS
From: Ebbie
Date: 21 Apr 03 - 06:24 PM

There is a kind of funny story on the news today about a Canadian resisting quarantine. (It'll probably develop that he is from the United States)

TORONTO (Reuters) - A health-care worker who is probably infected with the deadly SARS virus could have put hundreds of people at risk after he refused to obey a voluntary quarantine request and became "obnoxious" and "threatening," Ontario health officials said on Monday.

Subject: RE: BS: SARS
From: Burke
Date: 21 Apr 03 - 05:26 PM

How much is life being affected in Toronto? I have friends on the Village Harmony tour that is due to be in Toronto on Thursday & Friday. Are people avoiding public gatherings like concerts, etc?

To keep all this in perspective, according to the CDC:
Each flu season is unique, but it is estimated that approximately 10% to 20% of U.S. residents get the flu, and an average of 114,000 persons are hospitalized for flu-related complications. About 36,000 Americans die on average per year from the complications of flu.

Subject: RE: BS: SARS
From: Beccy
Date: 21 Apr 03 - 04:42 PM

Yikes... they just documented a case near me a general suburban area of Rochester, NY. I guess the guy had travelled up to Toronto and was exposed by a Toronto native friend who had recently returned from a trip to Hong Kong.

We're thinking of you, for sure! Take care of yourselves and take your vities.

Beccy

Subject: BS: SARS
From: John MacKenzie
Date: 21 Apr 03 - 03:44 PM

I'd just like to tell all our friends in Canada generally, and in Toronto particularly that we're thinking about them. Keep healthy guys.
Slainthe
Giok