BS: Japan Nuclear plant disaster, 2011

Subject: RE: BS: Nuclear plant disaster looming
From: Charley Noble
Date: 23 Mar 11 - 09:54 AM

Here's a link to everything you would or would not like to know about the spent fuel pools at the Fukushima-1 nuclear complex as gathered by the Union of Concerned Scientists from official sources: click here for update!

Listed are the 6 spent fuel pools associated with Units 1 through 6, plus the larger common pool, and dry cask storage on site. There is also discussion.

Most concern is focused on the spent fuel pools in Unit 3 and Unit 4, both of which were extensively damaged by hydrogen explosions.

Charley Noble

Subject: RE: BS: Nuclear plant disaster looming
From: Donuel
Date: 23 Mar 11 - 01:02 PM

My poster for nuclear power

http://usera.imagecave.com/donuel/don/levelplayingfield1.jpg

Subject: RE: BS: Nuclear plant disaster looming
From: Dorothy Parshall
Date: 23 Mar 11 - 01:09 PM

Nice poster, Donuel!

Subject: RE: BS: Nuclear plant disaster looming
From: Dorothy Parshall
Date: 23 Mar 11 - 01:12 PM

When Ursula Franklin (google her) tells me it is safe, I will believe it. Until then...

Subject: RE: BS: Nuclear plant disaster looming
From: Q (Frank Staplin)
Date: 23 Mar 11 - 01:20 PM

Pressure pump motors are being replaced in No. 2 Fukushima Daiichi, destroyed or fried by quake and/or electrical malfunction. Contradictory reports about high radiation stopping work at that reactor is now reported as a miscommunication.
Very high temperatures recorded at no. 1 and 3. Very disturbing.

Rebuildng of power lines to the reactors at the complex only the beginning of the repairs which must be made to stabilize the reactors, which probably be permanently closed down once that is done.

Appearance of radioactivity in Tokyo water is disturbing. The sources are the Tonegawa (NE Tokyo), Arakawa and Tama River systems, combined with managed forests in Tokyo and Yamanashi (west of Tokyo) Prefectures. Only 0.2 % of the water is groundwater.
Usage 6.3 million cubic meters/day.

Subject: RE: BS: Nuclear plant disaster looming
From: Q (Frank Staplin)
Date: 23 Mar 11 - 01:43 PM

TEPCO (Tokyo Electric Power Company), with some 35,000 employees, has widely held stock, 38% by individuals, 22% by various companies both foreign and Japanese, 10% by insurance companies, 18% by trust banks, 10% by Japanese governments. Dividend yield c. 2.5%.

Subject: RE: BS: Nuclear plant disaster looming
From: GUEST,mg
Date: 23 Mar 11 - 01:59 PM

Those miserable idiots did not have thermometers apparently that worked without electricity. So they are only now measuring certain temperatures. And yes, I hope they lose face and are driven from their positions by the people they put at such risk. Now I am going to send in Chef Ramsey and Star Jones with the goal of cutting through any red tape. And Paula Deen to make people feel better about the whole situation. mg

Subject: RE: BS: Nuclear plant disaster looming
From: gnu
Date: 23 Mar 11 - 02:00 PM

Good poster.

NHK said a few hours ago... temp of #1 reactor was 400 and double the seawater was pumped in and temp fell to 330 (design temp is 300). The smoke from #3 building cancelled sparty ops today. High radiation at #2 building. #5 and 6 reactor temps at 100 or below.

Tokyo tap water not to be ingested by those under 12 months age due to iodine. Bottled water in short supply beacuse fuel in short supply.

(It's getting more and more difficult to watch... those people must be terrified.)

Subject: RE: BS: Nuclear plant disaster looming
From: gnu
Date: 23 Mar 11 - 02:20 PM

"sparty ops"? Did you mean spray ops?

Subject: RE: BS: Nuclear plant disaster looming
From: Donuel
Date: 23 Mar 11 - 09:45 PM

Coverage on American cable news channels is now spotty.
I did see a FOX reporter in Japan say that they have detected what he called neutron beams which is indicative of Plutonium radiation and that it would point to a release that typically would come from a reactor.

Dark smoke from reactor 3 could suggest a core breach of some kind and prompted a worker withdrawl. For the little info we are given it could just as esily be a lubricant fire.

One FOX reporter speaking of finding neutron beam radiation (which is not a scientific term to my knowledge) does not make it true.

Subject: RE: BS: Nuclear plant disaster looming
From: Charley Noble
Date: 23 Mar 11 - 10:50 PM

These reports are very confusing and disturbing. I'm left wondering if the Utility workers have any idea of what damage has already occurred at these reactors, and what might happen next.

Unfortunately the Union of Concerned Scientist reports always lag a day or so.

But I'll see if NIRS has any update worth mentioning.

Charley Noble

Subject: RE: BS: Nuclear plant disaster looming
From: Charley Noble
Date: 23 Mar 11 - 10:57 PM

Just checked the website for the Nuclear Information Resources Service (NIRS) and here's their two updates for today:

UPDATE, Noon, Wednesday, March 23, 2011. The Austrian Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics (ZAMG), which is advising the International Atomic Energy Agency, reports that releases of radioactive Cesium (hazardous life: 300-600 years) from Fukushima now are 20-60% (what a range!) those of Chernobyl; releases of Iodine-131 are at 20% Chernobyl releases.

UPDATE, 11:00 am, Wednesday, March 23, 2011. We have received no recent updates on the condition of the reactors and fuel pools at Fukushima Daiichi. In this case, hopefully no news is good news.

Charley Noble

Subject: RE: BS: Nuclear plant disaster looming
From: Charley Noble
Date: 24 Mar 11 - 07:42 AM

My thought for today is the misunderstanding and misuse of the concept of radioactive "half-life." I just heard someone this morning on NPR describe Cesium-137 as "harmless" in 30 years. No, 30 years is when it has lost half of its radioactivity, leaving it still danger to living things (including us) for at least another 270 years. The rule of thumb is to multiply the half-life by a factor of ten. NIRS above is even more conservative, suggesting 10 to 20.

Have a nice "half-life"!

Charley Noble

Subject: RE: BS: Nuclear plant disaster looming
From: Charley Noble
Date: 24 Mar 11 - 07:59 AM

Here's what I find most interesting from yesterday's teleconference at the Union of Concerned Scientists:

"I would also like to mention there are reports of black smoke being emitted from reactor number 3 today. Authorities don't know what the origin is, but they say they don't think it's a serious problem if this is originating from the spent fuel pool; however, it could be an indication that there has been severe damage to the fuel itself in that there's larger particulate matter that's now being carried into the air in the form of smoke. That would be fuel particles that would include less volatile isotopes, including plutonium.

So, if the levels of a type of radiation known as alpha radiation start increasing, that could be an indication that the fuel itself is starting to degrade and being released, which might be additional cause for concern."

There's lots more discussion and perhaps someone else would like to harvest and discuss a paragraph of two, or not.

Charley Noble

Subject: RE: BS: Nuclear plant disaster looming
From: SINSULL
Date: 24 Mar 11 - 09:13 AM

Two workers have been hospitalized with radiation poisoning. They were standing in a pool of contaminated water while doing repairs. Radio news reports said they have "serious" burns. I am trying to image the commitment it took to be burned in radioactive crap and continue to work.

Subject: RE: BS: Nuclear plant disaster looming
From: Donuel
Date: 24 Mar 11 - 10:18 AM

The reporting of Plutonium release is sparse and guarded.

Cable news networks seem succesfully muzzled. People who express any concern about nuclear danger are shouted down by bleached blondes, proclaimed experts and shock joke yellers and are told they have fallen prey to media conspiracy hype and that "NO ONE EVER DIED AT TMI" and that only 32 people died at Chernobyl.
This whole thing is blown out of proportion like swine flu or anthrax scares. etc.

The repitition of the nuclear lie is in full swing. Naturally I look at the public relation, brain washing aspect of this disaster since that was my field of study.

The big lie needs to be crushed. Pictures are the best way to do this.


Any suggestions?

Subject: RE: BS: Nuclear plant disaster looming
From: SINSULL
Date: 24 Mar 11 - 11:11 AM

Higher radiation levels have been found - high enough to endanger an infant- outside the evacuated zone. Bottled water is in short supply.
A frightening time for families with young children or babies on the way.

Subject: RE: BS: Nuclear plant disaster looming
From: Donuel
Date: 24 Mar 11 - 11:18 AM

Nukes are the only answer website. mmmm Thorium delicious

Subject: RE: BS: Nuclear plant disaster looming
From: gnu
Date: 24 Mar 11 - 11:19 AM

Re up to one year old... levels have fallen from 300 to below 100 (the safety limit) for most of Tokyo and five other cities nearby but has risen in several cities to the north and northwest. All depends on the wind I assume.

Subject: RE: BS: Nuclear plant disaster looming
From: Donuel
Date: 24 Mar 11 - 11:19 AM

I tried googling "pro nuke demonstration"   lol not much there

Subject: RE: BS: Nuclear plant disaster looming
From: gnu
Date: 24 Mar 11 - 11:28 AM

oops.... and rain.

Subject: RE: BS: Nuclear plant disaster looming
From: gnu
Date: 24 Mar 11 - 11:47 AM

Thursday, March 24, 2011 21:48 +0900 (JST) NHK...

The Defense Ministry says temperatures at 4 nuclear reactors at the Fukushima Daiichi power plant have fallen below 20 degrees Celsius.

The ministry has been using helicopters to take infrared surveys of the surface temperatures of facilities at the stricken plant since Saturday.

The 30-minute survey, which was done from around 7 AM on Thursday, also found that the storage pool for spent fuel at the No. 3 reactor has cooled to about 30 degrees.

The ministry says the surface temperature of the No. 1 reactor was 13 degrees Celsius, that of No. 2 stood at 13 degrees, No. 3 at 11 degrees, and No. 4 at 17 degrees.
All readings were down from a day earlier.

The ministry says the surface temperature of the storage pool at the No. 3 unit was 31 degrees Celsius, down 26 degrees from the day before. Self-Defense Force troops and firefighters have been spraying water onto the Number 3 reactor building.

Thursday, March 24, 2011 21:48 +0900 (JST)

Subject: RE: BS: Nuclear plant disaster looming
From: Charley Noble
Date: 24 Mar 11 - 11:56 AM

gnu-

If those temperature reading are accurate, it's very good news. I'm not averse to that, and I doubt if anyone else who has been contributing or following this thread would be either.

I note that there is no temperature reading reported for the spent fuel pool at Unit 4 (or for the pools in Unit 1 and Unit 2), where the freshest spent fuel was present at the beginning of this saga.

Charley Noble

Subject: RE: BS: Nuclear plant disaster looming
From: Q (Frank Staplin)
Date: 24 Mar 11 - 01:29 PM

IAEA reported No. 2 temps for spent fuel pool as received from Japan's Nuclear and Industrial Agency for March 20-24, ranging from 47-53 C.

Unit 1- no precise data available since the explosion on March 12, but today NISA said temperature and pressure "somewhat stabilized."

Unit 3- only general data, this reactor continues to be the primary concern.

Unit 4- since all assemblies were in the spent fuel pool (down for maintenance when the quake hit) the pool had a larger heat load than the others. No reports of temperature concerns today.

Units 5 and 6- Since temp. diesel generators put on line, temps have been "significantly lower" after rising for several days.

Work in underway to test-run cooling pumps at no. 3 and 4, and testing on pumps for 1 and 2 to be tried soon. These pumps use fresh water.
Outside power sources now connected to all six reactors.

From various online reports- IAEA, Japan Times, etc.

Note- Unless temperatures are recorded by the sensors connected to the spent fuel pools, they are suspect. This accounts for the sparse reports, since NAIA will not release suspect temps and/pressures.

Reticence by both TEPCO and the government is frustrating to those seeking data.

Subject: RE: BS: Nuclear plant disaster looming
From: gnu
Date: 24 Mar 11 - 02:02 PM

#1 reactor... NHK...

Temp went up to 400... seawater injection doubled... pressure went up and temp went to 330... pressure down somewhat... "steady" now... whatever the hell that means.

Of course, if they can avoid "meltdown", that's what counts.

Sketchy stuff listening to the experts talk (interpretation clouds it further) but one lad today indicated that even if they got everything running with all the reactors there is still a fine line to walk during cooling everything down... "tricky" would be my interpretation.

All fine for me to watch and to try to understand and report it here but I just can't get out of my head the terror millions of Japanese must be feeling.

Subject: RE: BS: Nuclear plant disaster looming
From: GUEST,mg
Date: 24 Mar 11 - 02:28 PM

When the terror declines, and it might not be terror but lower, like anxiety..there is going to be fury, perhaps subtly expressed. There are going to be demands for resignations, if they are not immediately forthcoming, and there are going to be investigations, probably from outside Japan, about who the government is, who the electrical company is, why they seem to run the government, and who runs the electrical company, and it is going to be a warning to us all. mg

Subject: RE: BS: Nuclear plant disaster looming
From: Q (Frank Staplin)
Date: 24 Mar 11 - 03:12 PM

Anxiety, yes. Investigations, yes. Resignations, doubtful.
The response will be to rebuild, based on lessons learned.

Historical data was used in the reactor specifications.
Attention is focused on the reactors at Fukushima, but the other 50 centers are continuing operation.

Historical data was used in development of the Sendai urban centers; some 20,000 perished. Planning for rebuilding and relocation is underway, based on the 2011 experience.

Historical data was used in specifications for power grids and distribution systems, but some critical industries slowed or stopped, affecting production and jobs not only in Japan but in the U. S. and other countries with dependence on Japanese components. Re-location of power distribution lines from grid systems is underway.

Japan will rebuild, not recriminate and stagnate.

Nuclear power will continue to increase in importance, adding to the 50-odd reactors in use. The world's first full MOX plant was begun in 2008-09 in Aomori Prefecture, power generation expected in 2014. Kyushu Electric Power Co. began commercial operation Dec. 2009 after loading MOX from France. Shikoku Electric Power has loaded MOX at its Ikata 3 reactor (MOX also from France).

Subject: RE: BS: Nuclear plant disaster looming
From: gnu
Date: 24 Mar 11 - 03:27 PM

Q... "Japan will rebuild, not recriminate and stagnate."

As they should... well said.

And that goes for whatever the outcome is and however it influences future endeavours. Humans will survive. Naysayers underestimate their abilities a tad too much.

Subject: RE: BS: Nuclear plant disaster looming
From: gnu
Date: 24 Mar 11 - 04:10 PM

The crete pumper being used on the pools is from Vietnam. It was in Japan and was to be shipped out elsewhere when Vietnam offered it to help. She's a big bugger... 50m of arm. Good show Vietnam!

Subject: RE: BS: Nuclear plant disaster looming
From: GUEST,mg
Date: 24 Mar 11 - 04:47 PM

People in the electric company already had to resign years ago over their corruption and/or ineptitude. I can not imagine that this would be different. And in a way this is a blow for freedom, because the people are way less free than I would have thought, but I think that will be somewhat corrected. And various truths will be forced out of them or will just be found by others. This is the time (or once any emergencies are truly over) for them to lose face, because it is perhaps all that will force change.

And I am not interested in talk of engineering for historical data. Not when the consequences are that high and the predictions for such catastrophe are given to the general public all the time. It is not hidden in obscure engineering journals that there will be 9.0 earthquakes. I do not blame the engineers as they were owned by someone or prevented from doing their work somehow.

Who are the inspectors? Who are the falsifiers of information? mg

Subject: RE: BS: Nuclear plant disaster looming
From: Q (Frank Staplin)
Date: 24 Mar 11 - 05:58 PM

Specifications used in the future will, of course, include data on the 9.0 quake and tsunami- that is now historical data which will be used in designing and engineering constructions of all kinds in the Prefecture in question.

Having been registered as a professional geologist and working with licensed professional engineers for my working life, I resent the implication that anyone owns me or my associates. We are not omnipotent, however, and cannot base specifications on something that has not happened before or is not predictable for the project in question.
I see no evidence of malfeasance in the design or operation of Fukushima, only a disaster that was beyond reasonable parameters for that location.

Subject: RE: BS: Nuclear plant disaster looming
From: GUEST,mg
Date: 24 Mar 11 - 06:27 PM

Of course you can base specifications on something that has not happened before. And this earthquake was predictable as was the tsunami. I am referring to the electric company engineers. Certainly you build and design to anything way worse than anything that has ever happened.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/in-crisis-japans-government-struggles-to-deliver/2011/03/20/ABJJGg0_story.html

And they will "resign". mg

Subject: RE: BS: Nuclear plant disaster looming
From: Charley Noble
Date: 24 Mar 11 - 08:40 PM

Q-

"Unless temperatures are recorded by the sensors connected to the spent fuel pools, they are suspect."

Thanks for pointing this out.

I tend to agree with you that this event was beyond the reasonable assumptions of the designers, who did add a safety margin.

I do believe that when the design assumptions were greatly exceeded by the earthquake and tsunami, the fact that there were four reactors overwhelmed at once compounded the job of the on-site workers. I'm also convinced that mistakes were made in the initial attempts to mitigate the conditions in the runaway reactors and spent fuel pools. But we'll only learn the details 5 or so years from now, and by that time the public will only remember Fukushima and maybe a date. If you told people in general that half the fuel at Three Mile Island had melted down and escaped the reactor vessel, how many people would already know that; the report came out 5 years later.

Gnu-

I also find the report from NHK on reactor Unit 1 perplexing:

"Temp went up to 400... seawater injection doubled... pressure went up and temp went to 330... pressure down somewhat... 'steady' now... "

There should be such spikes of temperature if this reactor is really back under control.

mg-

I'm not sure how they "clean house" in Japan but the job needs to be done and most likely will be done. They probably have to depend on nuclear power for the seeable future and they can't afford to make this kind of dreadful mistake.

Charley Noble

Subject: RE: BS: Nuclear plant disaster looming
From: gnu
Date: 25 Mar 11 - 06:33 AM

NHK cycles between twenty and thirty minutes usually so it's a quick source of the latest news. I am 12 hours behind Japan so I get the most recent reports between 5 and 8AM. Not much changes after that unless something major happens.

Subject: RE: BS: Nuclear plant disaster looming
From: gnu
Date: 25 Mar 11 - 06:47 AM

Iodine in tap water spreading... 229.6 Bq/l in Hitachi.
Voluntary evacuation in 20-30km zoned urged.

Japan's defense minister says the government plans to switch from seawater to fresh water to cool the crippled reactors at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, with the support of US forces.

Toshimi Kitazawa told reporters on Friday that the United States urged Japan to quickly switch to fresh water, and offered to help do so.

Seawater has been used at the plant as an emergency measure, but salt in the water could lead to corrosion of the reactors' interiors.

The US forces and Japan's Self-Defense Forces have drawn up plans to anchor off the Fukushima coast US Navy barges capable of carrying large amounts of water, and send water via pipelines to the plant.
The US military is also to provide a high-powered pump to send water through the pipelines, and Japanese SDF vessels are to be mobilized to refill the barges with water.

The US vessels have already left their base in Yokosuka, near Tokyo. The US forces and SDF hope to set up the pipelines and other systems for the operation as soon as next week.

Friday, March 25, 2011 15:22 +0900 (JST)


Japan's nuclear safety agency says it is highly likely that the Number 3 reactor of the troubled Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant has been damaged, leading to the leak of high levels of radiation.

The agency was speaking to reporters about Thursday's accident in which 3 workers were exposed to radiation from water on the floor inside the turbine building of the No.3 reactor. The level of radioactivity was about 10,000 times higher than the water inside a normally operating nuclear reactor.

The agency said while the reactor appears to have partially retained its function to contain radiation leaks, there's a strong possibility that some part of the reactor is now damaged and the containment function is weakening.

Friday, March 25, 2011 12:48 +0900 (JST)

Subject: RE: BS: Nuclear plant disaster looming
From: Charley Noble
Date: 25 Mar 11 - 08:11 AM

It seems to be Reactor Unit 3 which now is having the most trouble as identified above:

TOKYO – A suspected breach in the core at one reactor at a stricken Fukushima nuclear plant could mean more serious radioactive contamination, Japanese officials revealed Friday — a situation the prime minister called "very grave and serious."

A somber Prime Minister Naoto Kan sounded a pessimistic note at a briefing hours after nuclear safety officials said they suspected a breach at the Fukushima Dai-ichi plant that would be a major setback in the urgent mission to stop the facility from leaking radiation.
"The situation today at the Fukushima Dai-ichi power plant is still very grave and serious. We must remain vigilant," Kan said. "We are not in a position where we can be optimistic. We must treat every development with the utmost care."

Evidently I left out a crucial "not" in my last posting:

"There should NOT be such spikes of temperature if this reactor is really back under control."

This sucks big time!

The other reason for shifting from salt water to fresh water is that the salt deposits around the reactor fuel rods interfere with the cooling process from circulating water. Fresh water was not an option evidently when the emergency back-up pumps failed.

Charley Noble

Subject: RE: BS: Nuclear plant disaster looming
From: Charley Noble
Date: 25 Mar 11 - 08:37 AM

Here's two excerpts from yesterday's tele-conference of the Union of Concerned Scients. The first addresses the "salt-water question":

"Can you please comment on the New York Times story about the risk of salt build-up on the inside the reactors and what that might mean?

MR. LOCHBAUM: Yes, this is David Lochbaum, I'll take a first shot at. The salt water that's being used for both the spent fuel pools and the reactor cores will as that water evaporates leave the salt behind. If there's complete or near total evacuation of the water, then you have a lot of salt skewing left behind, and it could insulate the fuel and impede the heat transfer from the pellets inside the fuel through the cladding, through the salt layer, to the water, once water is restored.

So, they're, as quickly as they can, they're likely to want to stop injecting sea water, start injecting fresh water to dilute the salt concentration that's already in the spent fuel pools and in the reactors.

They were basically down to only the option of using sea water, so they were pretty much forced into using that for as long as they only had the one option.

It is complicating what they do, not only because of the effect that the salt could impede heat transfer and potentially block some of the cooling water flow paths, but it's also very corrosive and it will do damage to components in the plant. So that they need to, as quickly as they can, get out of using sea water, get it back out of the plant as quickly as they can. And again, they had no option, they had to use the only water they had available, given the baggage, even the baggage that it carried."

The second excerpt goes back to venting and the likely cause of the hydrogen explosions:

"REPORTER: Were they also venting, though, from the primary containment into the secondary containment? Were there relief valves that would have allowed the hydrogen to get out of the primary into the secondary?

MR. LOCHBAUM: You know, our understanding because of the periodic venting of the reactor vessel, they also had in turn to periodically vent the primary containment, because it would pressurize also. The normal way for venting the containment is through the reactor building inside piping that would discharge it through a stack outside of primary or secondary containment as well.

You've probably seen pictures where they have those stacks that are surrounded by scaffolding or supports to hold them. That should have been where the vented atmosphere from the primary containment went, was up through those stacks. For some reason, the hydrogen ended up in the reactor building itself.

We've posted something on our blog, allthingsnuclear.org, that suggests one pathway that it may have been that they waited to vent the containment too long, and the pressure built up, actually lifted the reactor vessel head off the flange enough to leak hydrogen into the reactor building.

Since they were following the same procedure, that would explain why it happened on Units 1, 2 and 3. They waited to the same pressure point, it was high enough to lift the reactor vessel head, not blow it off the top, but just enough to provide a small pathway for hydrogen to leak out.

The reason we provide that pathway, possible pathway, is that that did happen at the Brunswick Nuclear Plant, during its initial start-up testing, they pressurized the containment, the head lifted off of the flange and it wasn't hydrogen in those days, it was air that leaked out into the reactor building. So, we're saying since that happened once, it's possible that that same scenario explained what happened on Units 1, 2 and 3. The one difference between Unit 2 and the other two units is that the hydrogen seems to have exploded either in the torus or in the reactor building area just outside of the torus. We're not sure why there's a difference between that unit and the other two units in that regard. "

The current puzzle in my mind is why it is not Unit 2 which is in major trouble this morning. It's explosion was more internal and was thought to have breached the "torus" underlying the primary containment. But now officials are suggesting that there is a breach of primary containment in Unit 3.

All will be clear five years from now! The film release scheduled for next month may not get it quite right, except for the personal drama.

Charley Noble

Subject: RE: BS: Nuclear plant disaster looming
From: gnu
Date: 25 Mar 11 - 01:10 PM

Chopper video... hopw the likn works... I downloaded IE9 and it does not like the link maker.

http://www3.nhk.or.jp/daily/english/25_30.html

Subject: RE: BS: Nuclear plant disaster looming
From: Q (Frank Staplin)
Date: 25 Mar 11 - 01:33 PM

A principal story today in NY Times and on CNN is the announcement that the core in reactor 3 is breached. As posted in threads above, two additional reactors are under suspicion, and Charley had noted the probability, based on the escaping radioactive elements, that a core was breached.

The serious exposure of workers who stepped in highly contaminated water brought the comment from Nishiyama of the Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency.
Two workers not wearing high boots received beta burns. The surface of the water was measured at 400 millisieverts. NISA reprimanded TEPCO for not taking better care of its workers.

No. 1 and no. 3 reactors now are receiving fresh water, no. 1 and no. 2 still receiving seawater.

The Government will set up a 'drastic' plan this summer to cope with electrical power shortages as a result of the loss of two power plants in Fukushima province.

Above from Japan Times.

Subject: RE: BS: Nuclear plant disaster looming
From: gnu
Date: 25 Mar 11 - 01:58 PM

Hmmmm... Now that they have stated they believe the reactor containments have been breached, which was evident days ago from the detection of iodine according to a professor who said said today on NHK that the iodine could NOT have come from the pools, the big question is, from that professor, core or pipes and valves? I haven't heard evidence to demonstrate core breach and since the core steel containment is 200mm thick, I would think the pipe, valve (and flange o-ring gasket) scenarios are more likely.

In any case, if any of these components are breached, pumping cooling water could increase leakage. Now, how the hell can you change out valves? or seal cracked pipes if the pressure is high?

I have a terrible feeling that the fresh water and concrete pumper may have to be put to another use before this is over.

As for mg's comments on designing for the indeterminable, if engineers did that, nothing would get built. Only God can make a rock he can't lift.

Subject: RE: BS: Nuclear plant disaster looming
From: JHW
Date: 25 Mar 11 - 02:14 PM

Perhaps this should be a new thread but my thoughts are also with the plot to drop more Nuclear Power Stations on the UK.
I'm hoping this disaster has frightened off the would be private investors in any new round. (They never yet picked up the tab for the old ones or the clean-up and waste disposal)
My proper lifetime job has been a field engineer in electricity power distribution. Outside the industry you might hardly believe the massive effort to make every aspect of our systems and their operation safe. Nothing is left to chance. Everything is considered to the far end of a farad and catered for.
But things will always go wrong.

Subject: RE: BS: Nuclear plant disaster looming
From: GUEST,mg
Date: 25 Mar 11 - 02:15 PM

This was quite predicted. It was not out of the realm of possibility. It was going to happen. It is going to happen where I live and there will be no escape, but at least we don't have a nuclear catastrophe on our little spit of sand. mg

Subject: RE: BS: Nuclear plant disaster looming
From: Charley Noble
Date: 25 Mar 11 - 03:12 PM

Josepp-

Good point but I believe you are missing the big picture.

It's unclear to me and others how many reactors or spent fuel pools at the Fukushima-1 nuclear complex have been breached. The immediate suspect is the reactor in Unit 3. Here's an update from NIRS (Nuclear Information Resource Service):

"UPDATE, 11:00 am, Friday, March 25, 2011. Greenpeace Germany has released a statement that, according to an analysis of radiation releases by consultant Dr. Helmut Hirsch, Fukushima is now a Level 7 accident on the international scale (currently it is officially ranked as a Level 5, comparable to the Three Mile Island accident of 1979; Level 7 would make it comparable to Chernobyl).

UPDATE, 10:00 am, Friday, March 25, 2011. Three workers were treated yesterday for contamination after walking in highly radioactive water in Unit 3 that is said to have had a dose rate of 20 rems/hour—about 10,000 times above normal. However, even that rate wouldn't be high enough to cause the burns that were reported on the workers, so there is suspicion that the rates were even higher. Radioactive elements were found in the water that are not normally found in reactor cooling water.(emphasis added)

This has led to new open speculation among government and utility officials that the core of Unit 3 has been breached and primary containment has failed (most observers have suggested this for several days). The Japanese Prime Minister has called the situation "very grave and serious." Radiation can be expected to be released from at least Unit-3 for some time. Steam is continuing to be released from multiple reactors at the site—steam releases at this point are certainly radioactive."

If there is a breach in Unit 3, there is still danger of a fuel core explosion and fire, and in the extreme case Units 1, 2, and 4, all going up in succession. The resulting radioactive plume will rival that of Chernobyl and devastate much of Japan for generations. The best case scenario will be a very messy clean-up in and around Unit 3.

Charley Noble

Subject: RE: BS: Nuclear plant disaster looming
From: gnu
Date: 25 Mar 11 - 03:19 PM

Charley... "If there is a breach in Unit 3, there is still danger of a fuel core explosion and fire, and in the extreme case Units 1, 2, and 4, all going up in succession."

How so? H generation in turn ignited by the buring of the rod casings?

Subject: RE: BS: Nuclear plant disaster looming
From: GUEST,mg
Date: 25 Mar 11 - 03:31 PM

What about the sand and cement option? Do you want to bet they haven't started gathering either? Anyway, some people say it is way past time to do this and others say that the cement will force the rods into the earth and there will be a bigger or longer problem. What is the thinking on this? mg

Subject: RE: BS: Nuclear plant disaster looming
From: Charley Noble
Date: 25 Mar 11 - 03:37 PM

gnu-

It would be a combination of a hydrogen explosion and burning of the radioactive fuel. The fuel rod cladding burns first but I believe the fuel itself will burn if it reaches a high enough temperature.

Here's what CNN says about Unit 3:

"That reactor is of particular concern, experts have said, because it is the only one at the plant to use a combination of uranium and plutonium fuel, called MOX, that is considered to be more dangerous than the pure uranium fuel used in other reactors."

Fortunately, unlike Chernobyl, there is no graphite (moderators) to further fuel an ensuing fire.

Charley Noble

Subject: RE: BS: Nuclear plant disaster looming
From: Q (Frank Staplin)
Date: 25 Mar 11 - 05:17 PM

NY Times, March 25-
Chinese engineers are building pebble-bed reactors that use fuel spheres ('pebbles'). Amassing these pebbles inside the reactor creates nuclear fission, which heats a gas. The gas in turn heats water into steam, driving a turbine. The reactor core consists of 420,000 of these fuel spheres, and every 15 seconds one is removed and replaced by another one. Experts say these reactors offer a safer nuclear alternative.
Each fuel sphere contains c. 12,000 uranium-laden 'microspheres'.
A schematic diagram of the reactor is shown in the NY Times article.
Graphite bricks around the core act as a reflector to enhance the reaction. Helium gas passes between the spheres, absorbing their heat.
Heat exchanger- Helium exiting the reactor goes into a cylinder with pipes of hot gas and pipes of water. The gas heats the water into steam that is sent to a turbine, producing electricity. The helium is cooled by the water and recirculated.

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2011/03/25/business/energyy-environment/20110325-chinanuke.html

Subject: RE: BS: Nuclear plant disaster looming
From: Q (Frank Staplin)
Date: 25 Mar 11 - 05:51 PM

30 percent of companies listed on the stock exchanges reported damage from the quake and tsunami.
Of these, 33% reported building damage, 30% are unable to do business and 13% reported damage to utilities and/or infrastructure.
Limited production (Lexus and Prius) restarted at Toyota.
Partial restart on lithium batteries.

Subject: RE: BS: Nuclear plant disaster looming
From: gnu
Date: 25 Mar 11 - 07:34 PM

MOX... isn't that what the French are pushing for sale these days?

Subject: RE: BS: Nuclear plant disaster looming
From: Charley Noble
Date: 25 Mar 11 - 09:46 PM

Getting back to my worst case scenario of Unit 3 exploding and triggering Units 1, 2, and 4 in a grander conflagration, everyone should know I'm going well beyond my zone of confidence. I fully expect that Units 1, 2, and 3 are already partially melted down and may complete the process to full meltdown. That will be messy enough locally. But what might happen next is not that clear. Sure, I can envision the melted fuel rods eating their way through the reactor vessel as they did at Three Mile Island and pooling in the bottom on the reactor, mixed with whatever they came in contact with. And, yes, they could eventually get into the ground water and the nearby cove and decimate anything living there. But I'm uncertain if the melted fuel would actually burn and create a deadly plume that would threaten large areas of Japan. Something like that happened at Chernobyl but it was a byproduct of a Hydrogen explosion igniting the graphite surrounding the fuel rods. We don't have the graphite at Fukushima.

Anyone else have any clues what might happen next?

I've already sent a message to the Union of Concerned Scientists. I don't know if they take weekends off.

Charley Noble