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BS: It's global warming, stupid!

Ed T 06 Feb 13 - 04:15 PM
Stringsinger 06 Feb 13 - 06:08 PM
Don(Wyziwyg)T 07 Feb 13 - 07:01 AM
Don(Wyziwyg)T 07 Feb 13 - 07:07 AM
GUEST,sciencegeek 07 Feb 13 - 09:17 AM
Don(Wyziwyg)T 07 Feb 13 - 11:19 AM
Ed T 07 Feb 13 - 04:22 PM
Don(Wyziwyg)T 08 Feb 13 - 05:55 AM
Ed T 08 Feb 13 - 08:27 AM
Ed T 08 Feb 13 - 08:32 AM
maeve 08 Feb 13 - 08:39 AM
Don(Wyziwyg)T 08 Feb 13 - 09:34 AM
Ringer 08 Feb 13 - 11:10 AM
GUEST,sciencegeek 08 Feb 13 - 11:42 AM
Stringsinger 08 Feb 13 - 07:07 PM
gnu 08 Feb 13 - 07:35 PM
Ringer 11 Feb 13 - 06:02 AM
Don(Wyziwyg)T 11 Feb 13 - 06:23 AM
Don(Wyziwyg)T 11 Feb 13 - 06:27 AM
beardedbruce 11 Feb 13 - 08:13 AM
GUEST,TIA 11 Feb 13 - 12:37 PM
Don(Wyziwyg)T 11 Feb 13 - 12:47 PM
Ringer 11 Feb 13 - 01:10 PM
Ringer 11 Feb 13 - 01:23 PM
GUEST,TIA 11 Feb 13 - 05:03 PM
GUEST,TIA 11 Feb 13 - 05:10 PM
Ed T 11 Feb 13 - 06:46 PM
Ed T 11 Feb 13 - 06:52 PM
Ed T 11 Feb 13 - 07:00 PM
Ed T 11 Feb 13 - 08:33 PM
Don(Wyziwyg)T 12 Feb 13 - 06:13 AM
Stringsinger 12 Feb 13 - 01:42 PM
EBarnacle 13 Feb 13 - 12:41 AM
GUEST,TIA 13 Feb 13 - 12:53 AM
Ringer 13 Feb 13 - 11:24 AM
beardedbruce 13 Feb 13 - 11:52 AM
pdq 13 Feb 13 - 12:33 PM
Don(Wyziwyg)T 13 Feb 13 - 01:15 PM
beardedbruce 13 Feb 13 - 01:42 PM
beardedbruce 13 Feb 13 - 02:09 PM
Ed T 13 Feb 13 - 05:22 PM
Greg F. 13 Feb 13 - 05:55 PM
GUEST,TIA 13 Feb 13 - 06:29 PM
Greg F. 13 Feb 13 - 06:40 PM
GUEST,TIA 13 Feb 13 - 08:52 PM
Greg F. 13 Feb 13 - 09:06 PM
Stringsinger 14 Feb 13 - 05:03 PM
GUEST,Mad Jock 17 Feb 13 - 09:01 AM
EBarnacle 17 Feb 13 - 10:42 AM
Stringsinger 18 Feb 13 - 09:49 AM

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Subject: RE: BS: It's global warming, stupid!
From: Ed T
Date: 06 Feb 13 - 04:15 PM

Much newer stuff is rarely repaired or repairable than it used to be. Goods are not being produced in a manner that they last, that they can be repaired, even if you could find someone who repairs goods at a reasobable price. While many forks claim they care for the environment - chances are that they are the most wasteful- beyond the "token" trend of the day.


A friend of mine repairs broken household appliences and sells them in his shop. He says the older models are the best made ones, and the best value once repaired, But, he says, even though he explains this to customers, it is hard to get anyone to buy the better made and longer lasting older models.

We are a wasteful throw-away consumer society.


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Subject: RE: BS: It's global warming, stupid!
From: Stringsinger
Date: 06 Feb 13 - 06:08 PM

One point that hasn't been addressed is that how a person treats their own body is a reflection on how they treat the earth's environment. It's a larger picture of how food is marketed and sold and the trash that the fast food manufacturers contribute to the inside as well as the outside of the human body is a huge part of the problem. The point is that denial starts with each individual who is willing to abuse their own body by taking in crap produced by unscrupulous corporate "food" companies and has a bearing on how climate crisis information is received. Note, climate crisis, not the term climate change which soft-pedals the urgency that our survival faces.

We are in big trouble and there are so many deniers.


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Subject: RE: BS: It's global warming, stupid!
From: Don(Wyziwyg)T
Date: 07 Feb 13 - 07:01 AM

I have been a joiner and wood machinist for many years and have tools still working today which I bought during my apprenticeship in the early 70s.

Hand planes, the blades of wich are two inches shorter through constant sharpening.

Chisels ditto.

I have three saws from that time, which I have sharpened and set by hand.

1) A fine tooth panel saw which has by now been sharpened away to a modeately good kehole saw.
2) A cross cut, now a fine panel saw.
2) A rip, which is now a general purpose cross cut.

Put that up against throwaway hardened saws, surform hardened planers, etc. etc., and you begin to realise just how bad things have become.

Call me old fashioned, but I won't have a tool in my box which I cannot sharpen and maintain until it is completely used up.

I am unashamedly proud of the quantity of metal resources I have avoided wasting in 40 years, and I am about to pass on my tools to my 14 year old grandson, who has shown a huge interest, not only in working with wood, but also in conservation of materials.

He should get at least twenty years use out of what I am giving him.


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Subject: RE: BS: It's global warming, stupid!
From: Don(Wyziwyg)T
Date: 07 Feb 13 - 07:07 AM

Must get a new keyboard.

"moderately good keyhole saw"

Incidentally, those three saws are genuine Philadelphia Distons.

Think Rolls Royce of hand tools.

Don T.


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Subject: RE: BS: It's global warming, stupid!
From: GUEST,sciencegeek
Date: 07 Feb 13 - 09:17 AM

I rememeber when a 5 year car battery from SEARS last 6-7 years... now they fall aprat in 2. And I would argue with brother about the so-called merits of "if it breaks, they replace it free"... I want something that does the job well, not have it break in the middle of the job and waste my time & gas to get an equally shoddy POS.

Don, I have planes and other woodworking tools from my late step dad who was a master cabinet maker. Beautiful. But they will need to find a good home soon, since I have no one to leave them to. I might find a buyer with some of the neighbors who are Amish.. but they often use power tools on their "English" jobs. There seems to be as many forms of Amish as there are Judism or Protestantism. LOL

Sustainable preactices means those that stand the test of time. Right now, the most reliable technology is that which is sent out on deep space probes... we get the leftovers and knockoffs.


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Subject: RE: BS: It's global warming, stupid!
From: Don(Wyziwyg)T
Date: 07 Feb 13 - 11:19 AM

The best thing you can do with those tools SG, is to take them to the nearest woodworking shop that trains apprentices, and donate them to the young man who is considered the best by his masters. Your step dad would be proud to see his tools go to a real carpenter/joiner.

Don T.


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Subject: RE: BS: It's global warming, stupid!
From: Ed T
Date: 07 Feb 13 - 04:22 PM

""I rememeber when a 5 year car battery from SEARS last 6-7 years... now they fall aprat in 2. And I would argue with brother about the so-called merits of "if it breaks, they replace it free""

Buy them at Costco and they warrant the battery for the full warranty period stated - not the prorated crap.


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Subject: RE: BS: It's global warming, stupid!
From: Don(Wyziwyg)T
Date: 08 Feb 13 - 05:55 AM

The point is that it is perfectly possible to make a car battery which, if properly treated, will last ten or more years.

Instead they make them to fail in two or three and use five times the resources in the pursuit of profit, not excellence.

Don T.


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Subject: RE: BS: It's global warming, stupid!
From: Ed T
Date: 08 Feb 13 - 08:27 AM

Mackerel weather-climate and politics

Mackerel


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Subject: RE: BS: It's global warming, stupid!
From: Ed T
Date: 08 Feb 13 - 08:32 AM

Interesting site on car batteries:

Car battery manufaturers


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Subject: RE: BS: It's global warming, stupid!
From: maeve
Date: 08 Feb 13 - 08:39 AM

sciencegeek- "we could have a whole thread dedicated to simple sustainable ways to do things... " Good idea!

Don- Our saws are the wonderful Distons too, and my husband and I hand sharpen all of our tools.


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Subject: RE: BS: It's global warming, stupid!
From: Don(Wyziwyg)T
Date: 08 Feb 13 - 09:34 AM

""Don- Our saws are the wonderful Distons too, and my husband and I hand sharpen all of our tools.""

No saw that I ever picked up came close to rivalling the genuine PA Diston, which would cut 7" X 2" joists in ten strokes without effort. The all cut perfectly straight too, since you don't have to apply pressure, even in bad (semi green) timber.

There was I believe a UK made Diston which wasn't as good, though cheaper.

If the longevity of mine is anything to go by, buying the other would have cost me a lot extra in replacements, and the planet quite a lot more iron ore, coal, electricity and other resources.

As Tesco are so fond of (unconvincingly) saying, every little helps.

Don T.


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Subject: RE: BS: It's global warming, stupid!
From: Ringer
Date: 08 Feb 13 - 11:10 AM

"... there is too much evidence for, and too little against, a man made element in climate change."

Would you care to list some of this evidence for a man-made element in climate change, Don(Wyziwyg)T? It is my opinion (and I am not alone) that there is no such evidence.


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Subject: RE: BS: It's global warming, stupid!
From: GUEST,sciencegeek
Date: 08 Feb 13 - 11:42 AM

well, goggle 9/11 and climate to get a slew of articles taking every possible position... but the fact remains, for three days there was a ban on non military flight over the USA. Jets leave contrails... no jets no contrails. A direct & immediate change in weather was noted. It helped reveal a small facet of human influence on the atmosphere.

It is an undisputed fact that industry pollutes... as in sends up tons and tons of soot ( aka particulates) and just as much assorted chemicals into the atmosphere. Some of these chemicals act as catalysts to destroy the protective ozone layer and others act to trap heat within the atmosphere, known as the "greenhouse effect", while others create "acid rain" or just act any other toxic chemical when introduced into an organism.

If you question these facts, then go the US EPA website and look up any of the thousands of Title IV and V permits that have been issued since 1997 to get a clue. They just happen to list the various chemicals and the amount that a company is allowed by law to emit from their plants. And that's just in the USA. I know this for a fact because I used to work on these permits in New York. Now I work on water pollution permits. SSDD

PS... as a geeky footnote... the very first air pollutant was free oxygen, O2, that is the end product of photosynthesis. yes it took time... but it DID change the original reducing environment of this plantet into an oxidizing one... which is the prime reason why multicelluar organisms could make a real go of it. The end result is what we have today.


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Subject: RE: BS: It's global warming, stupid!
From: Stringsinger
Date: 08 Feb 13 - 07:07 PM

Ringer,

1. Fracking leaving dangerous chemicals in the air and ground water.
2. Coal burning plants sending carbon emissions into the air.
3. Nuclear waste disposal creating health problems from the air breathed.
4. The use of aerosol sprays sending CO2 into the air.
5. The heating of the oceans due to the residual layer of carbon emissions in the               atmosphere.
6. The destruction of the water table where "dead zones" occur.

These are just some of the evidence that has been presented as to mankind's
despoiling of the air resulting in weather anomalies by reputable scientists who have documented these occurences regardless of what some deniers "believe" .


deniers "believe".


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Subject: RE: BS: It's global warming, stupid!
From: gnu
Date: 08 Feb 13 - 07:35 PM

Ed... one more note on that link... Britain and the EU hung Iceland out to dry in Chapter 13* so when they say they are gonna "mack on", the more power to them. (I'll bet skarpi agrees.)

* Yes. Far worse.


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Subject: RE: BS: It's global warming, stupid!
From: Ringer
Date: 11 Feb 13 - 06:02 AM

"These are just some of the evidence that has been presented as to mankind's despoiling of the air resulting in weather anomalies by reputable scientists who have documented these occurences regardless of what some deniers "believe" ."

Evidence of mankind's despoiling of nature, certainly, Stringsinger. But not evidence that climate has been significantly affected by mankind's activities. In other words, I dispute your "resulting in weather anomalies."

"Deniers," incidentally, is a pejorative term, implying that those who don't support your point of view show the same nastiness as those who deny the Holocaust. What, precisely (do you do precisely?), do you think is being denied?


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Subject: RE: BS: It's global warming, stupid!
From: Don(Wyziwyg)T
Date: 11 Feb 13 - 06:23 AM

""Would you care to list some of this evidence for a man-made element in climate change, Don(Wyziwyg)T? It is my opinion (and I am not alone) that there is no such evidence.""

No, I wouldn't!

You will have to do as I have done and access all the peer reviewed and genuinely scientific publications on the subject, then try reading them with your eyes, and more importantly, your mind open.

You are entitled to your own opinion, but not your own facts.

Don T.


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Subject: RE: BS: It's global warming, stupid!
From: Don(Wyziwyg)T
Date: 11 Feb 13 - 06:27 AM

P.S. This may come as a big disappointment, but Fox News and others of that ilk are not actually peer reviewed scientific journals.

Don T.


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Subject: RE: BS: It's global warming, stupid!
From: beardedbruce
Date: 11 Feb 13 - 08:13 AM

Don T.

The FACTS are that the climate is changing.

The THEORY is that man-made causes have a controlling factor in that change.

It is the latter THEORY that is in discussion- As any SCIENTIST knows, one creates theories AND THEN LOOKS FOR THE REASONS IT DOES NOT HOLD TRUE. AFTER none are found, one accepts the theory conditionally, and continues to look for new data.


It seems to me you are failing in this.


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Subject: RE: BS: It's global warming, stupid!
From: GUEST,TIA
Date: 11 Feb 13 - 12:37 PM

Ringer;
Start here with Figure 1.

Then keep going. You have lots and lots of reading to do.


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Subject: RE: BS: It's global warming, stupid!
From: Don(Wyziwyg)T
Date: 11 Feb 13 - 12:47 PM

It may be very heavy going TIA, but it's consistent and very convincing, and the main argument of the other side seems to be "I don't believe it, so it can't be true".

Don T.


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Subject: RE: BS: It's global warming, stupid!
From: Ringer
Date: 11 Feb 13 - 01:10 PM

"No, I wouldn't!

Fair enough, Don(Wyziwyg)T, but since you decline to list any evidence to the contrary, I feel disinclined to abandon my opinion.

"...try reading them with your eyes, and more importantly, your mind open."

Ah, I see: anyone with an opinion different from yours is blinkered and has a closed mind. How very convenient, for then you don't need to provide evidence or argument, do you?

PS. I don't think I've ever looked at Fox News in my life, so (a) my views don't come from there, and (b) I cannot judge what "others of that ilk" are.


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Subject: RE: BS: It's global warming, stupid!
From: Ringer
Date: 11 Feb 13 - 01:23 PM

"It may be very heavy going TIA, but it's consistent and very convincing..."

I skimmed the article (I don't believe you've had time to digest it thoroughly, Don(Wyziwyg)T): convincing it may be, but only that carbon dioxide & methane atmospheric constituents have been affected by human activity for longer than is generally thought. OK: I accept that; but my argument is unaffected: I asked for evidence that human activity had affected climate, not that it had affected carbon dioxide & methane, which I accept.

"... and the main argument of the other side seems to be "I don't believe it, so it can't be true""

You should try reading the arguments of "the other side" with your eyes, and more importantly, your mind open, Don(Wyziwyg)T.


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Subject: RE: BS: It's global warming, stupid!
From: GUEST,TIA
Date: 11 Feb 13 - 05:03 PM

Ringer,

"OK: I accept that; but my argument is unaffected: I asked for evidence that human activity had affected climate, not that it had affected carbon dioxide & methane, which I accept."

Read again, and spend a bit of time understanding Figure 10. I believe it provides exactly the linkage you seek: human activity affected CO2 and CH4, CO2 and CH4 affected climate, ergo; humans affected climate.

Figure 10.

Then begin reading the references.


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Subject: RE: BS: It's global warming, stupid!
From: GUEST,TIA
Date: 11 Feb 13 - 05:10 PM

And if you want something recent from an unimpeachable source, how about Nature, December 2012?

http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v492/n7428/full/492157b.html


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Subject: RE: BS: It's global warming, stupid!
From: Ed T
Date: 11 Feb 13 - 06:46 PM

Interesting reading:

""Soot, that black carbon that causes smoggy skies (and has sent Beijing's Pollution Index right off the charts) is the number two contributor to global warming, second to carbon dioxide, according to a four-year assessment by an international panel that is not the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change"".


Black Carbon in the climate system


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Subject: RE: BS: It's global warming, stupid!
From: Ed T
Date: 11 Feb 13 - 06:52 PM

An interesting paper on black carbon in the climate system: (PDF file)
- A scientific assessment. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Accepted Articles, Accepted manuscript online: 15 JAN 2013.

Bounding the role of black carbon in the climate system: A scientific assessment


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Subject: RE: BS: It's global warming, stupid!
From: Ed T
Date: 11 Feb 13 - 07:00 PM

An interesting Science research abstract from Nature Geoscience published in March 2008.

Global and regional climate changes due to black carbon


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Subject: RE: BS: It's global warming, stupid!
From: Ed T
Date: 11 Feb 13 - 08:33 PM

An interesting article: Solar Influences on Global Temperature, Zeke Hausfather   May 27, 2008        


common-climate-misconceptions-solar-influences-on-global-temperature

Another, by the same scientist:Common Climate Misconceptions on Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide, Zeke Hausfather   December 16, 2010        

common-climate-misconceptions-atmospheric-carbon-dioxide


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Subject: RE: BS: It's global warming, stupid!
From: Don(Wyziwyg)T
Date: 12 Feb 13 - 06:13 AM

""Ah, I see: anyone with an opinion different from yours is blinkered and has a closed mind.""

Not at all! Just those idiots who are too lazy to even look for the evidence and want me to waste my time doing it for them.

If you have only researched from one point of view, your conclusions are slanted and your opinion invalid.

If, on the other hand, you have done some homework, then you are deliberately choosing to ignore what disagrees with you preconceived notion, which is worse.

My apparent ability to digest the information in TIA's link was in fact an illusion, I'm afraid, since it was one of the many strands of evidence I turned up in my own research into the subject.

I am no professional scientist (an analytical chemist 5 decades ago), but Google is easy to use if you have any interest in the truth.

Don T.


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Subject: RE: BS: It's global warming, stupid!
From: Stringsinger
Date: 12 Feb 13 - 01:42 PM

To quote Professor Hausfather: "Graphing emissions over the modern period against changes in atmospheric concentrations illustrates a clear relationship between emissions and increasing CO2 concentrations."

In other words, it ain't the sun, son.


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Subject: RE: BS: It's global warming, stupid!
From: EBarnacle
Date: 13 Feb 13 - 12:41 AM

Folks, the Sun almost certainly contributes to the situation. The operative word is contributes. So do various forms of pollution. See, for example, Venus and models which compare the temperature of Venus with and without its cloud cover.

As far as ice, Ringer, would you like to join me on a cruise of the NortWest Passage this summer?


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Subject: RE: BS: It's global warming, stupid!
From: GUEST,TIA
Date: 13 Feb 13 - 12:53 AM

Actually, the sun distinctly does *not* contribute.
For the last 800,000+ years, climate has tracked insolation.
And now, as insolation declines, global average temperature is rising.
Climate is doing the exact opposite of what the sun's effect should be.


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Subject: RE: BS: It's global warming, stupid!
From: Ringer
Date: 13 Feb 13 - 11:24 AM

TIA, from your cite in posting at 11 Feb 13 - 12:37 PM - on p285, beginning of section 6: "To evaluate the climatic impacts of these pre-industrial greenhouse-gas increases, the following analysis uses the IPCC (2001) estimate of a 2.5C equilibrium sensitivity of global climate to a CO2 doubling."

Is this a serious scientific paper? Using IPCC (2001)? The IPCC reports have been discredited, based as they are mainly on "gray sources": that is, on literature from lobbyist groups with an ax to grind (lobbyist groups such as WWF, Greenpeace, FoE, etc). The current estimate is that climate sensitivity is about 1C, not 2.5. I couldn't work out what effect a smaller value of sensitivity would have on "the following analysis". (OK: perhaps I'm being too harsh on the authors of your 10-year-old cite, since the truly partial nature of IPCC & its reports have only really become well known in the last few years.)

But that's neither here nor there. There's at least as much evidence that, historically, temperature changes lead carbon dioxide changes as the reverse. Eg look at Wikipedia; not obvious there that CO2 is cause and temperature is effecxt, is there?

And

  • In the last 15 years (or so) there has been no increase in average global temperature (whatever that is), but carbon dioxide percentages have been rising inexorably. I deduce that CO2 is not the only or even a major cause of Global warming.
  • All the scares about what used to be called global warming originate from climatic models. All these models are programmed on the basis of "CO2 is a greenhouse gas, therefore if CO2 increases so must global temperature," with more or fewer positive-feedback effects relating to water vapour and methane et al; they all predict "doom" - now there's a surprise. None, not one, predicted the current decade and a half's temperature "plateau" (point of inflexion?).

  • If the science is so unarguably on the side of those with a point of view other than my own, why do they need to bully and browbeat their adversaries, to slant peer-review panels in their favour, to deny their adversaries access to serious publications, or to "lose" the temperature records their publications are based on or the code they use to smooth/adjust/cherry-pick their data (all documented in "climategate" leaked emails); or why do they need to make up memos which appear to cast their adversaries in a bad light ("fakegate")? Just asking.


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Subject: RE: BS: It's global warming, stupid!
From: beardedbruce
Date: 13 Feb 13 - 11:52 AM

Water vapor is also a greenhouse gas- more effective than CO2 (as is methane). Is it too much to think that the temperature increase ( from whatever cause) might increase the water vapor levels in the atmosphere, increasing the greenhouse heating, raising the temperature, and increasing the water vapor??

The ONLY cure for this cycle is to reduce the temperature ( NOT the CO2) by increased particulates. That would reduce the solar heating of the earth, and reduce the temperature.

Best way to do that is a major nuclear war.


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Subject: RE: BS: It's global warming, stupid!
From: pdq
Date: 13 Feb 13 - 12:33 PM

"Actually, the sun distinctly does *not* contribute."


Good grief, Charlie Brown. The Sun is the only external source of energy for the Earth's atmosphere.

Without the Sun's energy, the Earth's surface would be approximately the same as that of Pluto. That is about 285oC below what it is now.


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Subject: RE: BS: It's global warming, stupid!
From: Don(Wyziwyg)T
Date: 13 Feb 13 - 01:15 PM

""Good grief, Charlie Brown. The Sun is the only external source of energy for the Earth's atmosphere.""

Misunderstanding, accidentally or deliberately Peedee?

The distance from Earth to Sun is, within the narrowest of margins, constant, and so is the heat generated at that distance, again within very narrow limits.

So, unless the Sun itself gets hotter, it isn't going to cause global warming, and we know that the Sun is in a phase where it is, very slowly, cooling.

So, the difference must be at our end, and the only possible answer is, as TIA pointed out, insulation.

The more of that heat we keep in, the hotter we get, and that is what greenhouse gasses do. By reducing the heat radiation into space, they cause global warming.

So, given our production of CFCs and Carbon Dioxide, and the quantity of carbon we put into the atmosphere since the Industrial Revolution by burning fossil fuels, and the methane production from intensive livestock farming, whether there is a human contribution to global warming is not up for debate.

IT IS A FACT! The only thing yet to be determined is the proportion of the whole for which we are responsible.

Don T.


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Subject: RE: BS: It's global warming, stupid!
From: beardedbruce
Date: 13 Feb 13 - 01:42 PM

Don,


http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2013/08jan_sunclimate/


You state:"So, unless the Sun itself gets hotter, it isn't going to cause global warming, and we know that the Sun is in a phase where it is, very slowly, cooling."

You assume that the sun is constant, and not variable.

"There are no direct measurements of the longer-term variation and interpretations of proxy measures of variations differ; recent results suggest about 0.1% variation over the last 2,000 years,[4] although other sources suggest a 0.2% increase in solar irradiance since 1675.[5] The combination of solar variation and volcanic effects has very likely been the cause of some climate change, for example during the Maunder Minimum.

A 2006 study and review of existing literature, published in Nature, determined that there has been no net increase in solar brightness since the mid 1970s, and that changes in solar output within the past 400 years are unlikely to have played a major part in global warming.[6] However, the same report cautions that "Apart from solar brightness, more subtle influences on climate from cosmic rays or the Sun's ultraviolet radiation cannot be excluded, say the authors. They also add that these influences cannot be confirmed because physical models for such effects are still too poorly developed."[7]"




"Dan Lubin of the Scripps Institution of Oceanography pointed out the value of looking at sun-like stars elsewhere in the Milky Way to determine the frequency of similar grand minima. "Early estimates of grand minimum frequency in solar-type stars ranged from 10% to 30%, implying the sun's influence could be overpowering. More recent studies using data from Hipparcos (a European Space Agency astrometry satellite) and properly accounting for the metallicity of the stars, place the estimate in the range of less than 3%."   This is not a large number, but it is significant.
Indeed, the sun could be on the threshold of a mini-Maunder event right now. Ongoing Solar Cycle 24 is the weakest in more than 50 years. Moreover, there is (controversial) evidence of a long-term weakening trend in the magnetic field strength of sunspots. Matt Penn and William Livingston of the National Solar Observatory predict that by the time Solar Cycle 25 arrives, magnetic fields on the sun will be so weak that few if any sunspots will be formed. Independent lines of research involving helioseismology and surface polar fields tend to support their conclusion. (Note: Penn and Livingston were not participants at the NRC workshop.)
"If the sun really is entering an unfamiliar phase of the solar cycle, then we must redouble our efforts to understand the sun-climate link," notes Lika Guhathakurta of NASA's Living with a Star Program, which helped fund the NRC study. "The report offers some good ideas for how to get started."


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Subject: RE: BS: It's global warming, stupid!
From: beardedbruce
Date: 13 Feb 13 - 02:09 PM

http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11434-007-0384-9


for long term variability.


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Subject: RE: BS: It's global warming, stupid!
From: Ed T
Date: 13 Feb 13 - 05:22 PM

I suspect there is not much any of us can do about the Sun's heat output, beyond observing it and trying to predict future varibility by understanding earlier changes.


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Subject: RE: BS: It's global warming, stupid!
From: Greg F.
Date: 13 Feb 13 - 05:55 PM

I'm sure Bruce will be able to do something about it, Ed - just ask him.


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Subject: RE: BS: It's global warming, stupid!
From: GUEST,TIA
Date: 13 Feb 13 - 06:29 PM

So Ringer, you assail IPC as a poor source, then cite me Wikipedia in response?

Kind of funny.


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Subject: RE: BS: It's global warming, stupid!
From: Greg F.
Date: 13 Feb 13 - 06:40 PM

you assail IPC as a poor source, then cite me Wikipedia in response?

That's not funny at all; if anything, its pitiful.


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Subject: RE: BS: It's global warming, stupid!
From: GUEST,TIA
Date: 13 Feb 13 - 08:52 PM

Yup. Wikipedia is for those who want to get the "five minute understanding" of a complex topic. Sometimes it is helpful... as a good starting point. But don't go arguing with someone familiar with the primary peer-reviewed literature armed with Wikipedia. You'll look like you learned your shit 5 seconds ago ('cause you did).

So, moving on; lots of talk about the sun above. And I notice that many are conflating disparate issues. Are we arguing about total solar irradiance or insolation, or ultraviolet radiation and the ozone layer, or cosmic rays, or D-O events? Or are we mixing them all together as if they are one phenomenon? Let's argue once we understand the difference between these and their (often competing) effects.

Or, you know what, just never mind. In the words of Geophysicist Ray Pierrehumbert; "That's [the solar argument] a coffin with so many nails in it already that the hard part is finding a place to hammer in a new one."

Hammer away!


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Subject: RE: BS: It's global warming, stupid!
From: Greg F.
Date: 13 Feb 13 - 09:06 PM

Wikipedia is for those who want to get the "five minute understanding" of a complex topic.

Or, more often, no understanding whatsoever of damn near ANY topic...


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Subject: RE: BS: It's global warming, stupid!
From: Stringsinger
Date: 14 Feb 13 - 05:03 PM

February 17th in Washington D.C. will have one of the biggest rallies to protest
the Keystone XL Pipeline ever held. Already, at least 50 protesters have been arrested for demonstrations on this issue. Some in front of the White House.

This issue is not going away.


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Subject: RE: BS: It's global warming, stupid!
From: GUEST,Mad Jock
Date: 17 Feb 13 - 09:01 AM

It is far better to call the change we are experiencing as Climate Change as some places will get warmer others colder some wetter some drier.!!


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Subject: RE: BS: It's global warming, stupid!
From: EBarnacle
Date: 17 Feb 13 - 10:42 AM

Regarding arguments that Climate Change believers are trying to suppress deniers, my experience has been the opposite. By means of insult and ad hominem arguments they go about trying to outshout everyone while claiming they are being trampled on.

Let's poait a different question: Isn't it better to reduce emissions for whatever reason than to simply continue down the road to Hell or to sit around saying nothing scn/sh0uld be done?


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Subject: RE: BS: It's global warming, stupid!
From: Stringsinger
Date: 18 Feb 13 - 09:49 AM

50,000 people showed up in Washington last Sunday the 17th to protest the implementing of the Keystone XL Pipeline. Not everyone is asleep.

The term climate change is a misnomer because it ignores the basic scientific fact
that the planet is heating up due to carbon emissions and C02 into the atmosphere, caused by automotive exhaust and other manmade factors.

Global warming is more accurate than climate change since there has always been
climate change but global warming is new and a recent development which is causing hurricanes, rising sea levels, acid rain, polar melting of ice caps and extensive draughts as found in Australia and Africa.

The attempt to obscure the words "global warming" is another ploy by the corporate gas and oil industry to further their economic interests at the expense of all of us.


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