BS: Boring science stuff we all believe...

Subject: RE: BS: Boring science stuff we all believe...
From: Sam L
Date: 30 Sep 04 - 11:20 PM

Wolfgang, I'm trying to write comedy every day now, and your theory is holding up in testing. Jokes without a solid subtext are like tickling, as likely to annoy as amuse. This isn't good news for me, not the result I was hoping for. All the good jobs being lazy and doing next to nothing are taken.

Are there any records of what people thought about static electricity before it was identified?

Symbols: My daughter's homework was graded with a smiley face and no comment. She says everyone got that. Hm. Concept of zero: My son's was marked incomplete because he didn't write what he liked most about math class today.


(Really he loves math, but doesn't like to write, and claims they were told not to bother with that part.)

Subject: RE: BS: Boring science stuff we all believe...
From: Little Hawk
Date: 30 Sep 04 - 11:38 PM

One might well ask what they thought about lightning too. (aside from imagining it was God's wrath)

Subject: RE: BS: Boring science stuff we all believe...
From: Ooh-Aah2
Date: 01 Oct 04 - 02:23 AM

Everyone knows that lightning is caused by Thor.

          Forth went the thunder god, riding on his filly.
          "I'm Thor!" he cried, his horse replied
          "You forgot your thaddle, thilly."

Subject: RE: BS: Boring science stuff we all believe...
From: Amos
Date: 01 Oct 04 - 08:45 AM

While in engineering school I prepared a complete analysis of energy conversion and amounts to be expected during a lightning stroke. I can enail a copy if you are interested, but I cannot imagine why you would be!! :)

A

Subject: RE: BS: Boring science stuff we all believe...
From: Rapparee
Date: 01 Oct 04 - 09:18 AM

Energy conversion, Amos? From energy to matter? Cool! How'd ya do it?? What sort of matter did you get? The world wants to know: What's the matter?





Sorry. Got all giddy and carried away.




Ahem and hurrumph. If, as Einstein's equations posit, matter and energy are interconvertable (and both nuclear fission and fusion seem to make this very clear), is the same also true of gravity? Inquiring minds (well, mine anyway) want to know!

Subject: RE: BS: Boring science stuff we all believe...
From: GUEST,TIA
Date: 01 Oct 04 - 10:19 AM

1) Observe and wonder.

2) Hypothesize about why or how.

3) Predict what else you will observe if hypothesis is correct.

4) Design and perform a test of this prediction (with strict controls - one variable at a time please).

5) Evaluate test results honestly - "the easiest person to fool is yourself" (Feynman).

6) Return to 2 and revise

[notice there is no End statement, the loop is continuous]

There. That's all you need to know about science.

Subject: RE: BS: Boring science stuff we all believe...
From: Little Hawk
Date: 01 Oct 04 - 11:42 AM

No it isn't. You also need to know the underlying philosophy of the scientist, his beliefs, fears, loves, and hatreds; his expectations and assumptions about life, and so on.

For instance, Darwin was quite a religious man...that would affect his view of reality and his interpretation of the evidence he gathered and the observations he made. He would most certainly arrive at differing interpretations than a man who was psychologically opposed to organized religion of any sort.

People interpret reality through the screen of their perceptions, not just through gathering physical evidence and viewing it in a completely neutral manner.

A mechanical device is completely neutral and objective, within the limited range of what it can do. A human being is not. The human being has a value system which is quite subjective in nature. Even animals have such a value system....they are full of both affection and prejudice, based on their past experience.

That value system determines:

1. What evidence is even noticed in the first place.

2. How it is ranked in order of importance.

3. And what meaning is given to it by the observer.

Subject: RE: BS: Boring science stuff we all believe...
From: Little Hawk
Date: 01 Oct 04 - 11:43 AM

Ooh-Aah, I sent you a PM. Please check the red number indicating your personal messages at the top of the main screen. Click on it. Or click on "Personal Page" at the top of your screen.

Subject: RE: BS: Boring science stuff we all believe...
From: GUEST,TIA
Date: 01 Oct 04 - 11:58 AM

You are quite right LH. What I have listed is how science is *supposed* to be done. Since, on this planet at least, scientists are human, one must be on the lookout for improper science (actually not science at all then) which has been corrupted by personal values - hence Feynman's warning about fooling yourself.

The beauty of science (done properly) is that it arrives at a view of reality that is independant of value systems, and as true for a Hindu as it is for a Jew, or an Atheist, or a Romulan, or a Canadian. One is, of course, free to hold views based on values systems, but they are not "scientific".

Subject: RE: BS: Boring science stuff we all believe...
From: Little Hawk
Date: 01 Oct 04 - 12:18 PM

Yeah. Let's say that there were scientists among dogs, for example. If so, they would take no notice of a 2-dimensional picture. They would not see it AS a picture of anything at all. They would also take no notice of the written word, not knowing how to recognize or interpret the symbols. In the case of a televised film, most of them would HEAR it okay, but not SEE it...just seeing a meaningless illuminated rectange. A few dogs, however, DO see and are able to interpret pictures on a TV screen. I know this from having observed it happening. Most dogs are oblivious to projected images of that sort, but a few of them "get it".

I have a feeling that our human scientists are most likely missing some stuff that is just as obvious as the examples given above (IF you see it)...but they simply don't see it, due to their perceptions and their general state of awareness. A lot of the New Age literature is about precisely that sort of thing...stuff that is taken no notice of by the conventional, materially oriented mind.

A dog's way of observing is admirably suited to survival in nature, but it has some blind spots. The same goes for people. People can be trained to expand their fields of awareness.

Subject: RE: BS: Boring science stuff we all believe...
From: TIA
Date: 01 Oct 04 - 12:23 PM

And dog scientist would, of course, publish their results on peer-reviewed fire hydrants rather than in journals.

Subject: RE: BS: Boring science stuff we all believe...
From: Little Hawk
Date: 01 Oct 04 - 12:24 PM

Indeed they would. :-)

Subject: RE: BS: Boring science stuff we all believe...
From: Amos
Date: 01 Oct 04 - 12:26 PM

The conversions were from electrical to light, heat and sound, Rapaire...

Subject: RE: BS: Boring science stuff we all believe...
From: Rapparee
Date: 01 Oct 04 - 01:46 PM

Peer-reviewed dog papers -- yellow journalism of the worst sort! (Shouldn't the first word be spelled "pee-er"?)

Subject: RE: BS: Boring science stuff we all believe...
From: Amos
Date: 01 Oct 04 - 03:38 PM

Yes, that's how they do their pee-er reviews.

A

Subject: RE: BS: Boring science stuff we all believe...
From: Sam L
Date: 01 Oct 04 - 05:17 PM

I believe there are cultures of people who dont recognize 2-d images either. Read about it somewhere.

I heard of a study that indicated you could re-set your internal sleep clock by shining light on the back of your knees. What gets me is wondering how they went fishing for that? And the other thing is a distant memory of being a kid, with insomnia, and a restless ache in the back of my knees.

   There are science things Ive heard that I wonder whether they are science or just things people say. You only use a third of your brain, I can accept, but on the condition that its like a warehouse. You could fill it, but couldnt get at anything when you need to.

   Its not known how aspirin works. Ive never noticed that it really does.

You can turn lead into gold, but youll need a supercollider, and its not worth doing. Sounds credible, because of the general principle that a lot of things that sound cool to do turn out to be not worth doing.

Eskimos cant watch movies, because their eyes are too quick and they see only a blur. I was told this was utterly wrong, and impossible, but then, that maybe it was true about early movies which were much slower.

Studies show that people like to be as much in everyone elses way as possible, and so they congregate in doorways and passages where others need to pass. This I believe.

Subject: RE: BS: Boring science stuff we all believe...
From: Little Hawk
Date: 01 Oct 04 - 07:16 PM

That's correct about the 2-d images. Some people cannot or have great difficulty in interpreting them. Lawrence of Arabia discovered this when sketching in the evenings at encampments with the Bedouin fighters, who were not accustomed to line drawings on paper. They were accustomed to script, but not line drawings, and they were seemingly quite unable to interpret his drawings. (It wasn't because he couldn't draw, either. He was a good amature artist.)

It's not that the Bedouin lacked the innate ability in any way, they were just culturally unfamiliar with the concept, that's all. They could see things Lawrence couldn't too...in terms of signs in the sand, that sort of thing. With training, either one could learn to see what the other saw quite easily and "naturally".

Some people can see auras. All people could most likely see auras, providing they grew up in a culture that supported the idea and encouraged it. I can see a pale aura around myself under dim lighting conditions...as long as I'm relaxed and not really thinking about it. Then I suddenly realize I'm seeing it. I have to remain mentally quite relaxed or I tend to lose sight of the aura. I've known people who are WAY better at seeing them than I am, and I have no reason whatsoever to doubt their word about it.

Subject: RE: BS: Boring science stuff we all believe...
From: Bill D
Date: 01 Oct 04 - 08:43 PM

I Can See Your Aura, and It's Ugly

Subject: RE: BS: Boring science stuff we all believe...
From: Sam L
Date: 01 Oct 04 - 10:21 PM

I only see auras when a live actor is exceptionally good. At some point it becomes buzzy and focused while Im watching, very much a visual thing, and not that I'm transported or such into the world of the perfomance. It's a performance, but credible, as that. I see some odd thing sometimes when I think someone is acting exceptionally well.

I guess I wonder more about what people thought of static electricity than lightning because it's such a small and intimate phenomenon. People would always have talked about lightning, it's more public.

Subject: RE: BS: Boring science stuff we all believe...
From: GUEST,Boab
Date: 02 Oct 04 - 03:09 AM

A straight line---the shortest distance between two pints.

Subject: RE: BS: Boring science stuff we all believe...
From: *daylia*
Date: 02 Oct 04 - 07:51 AM

Cause I can see your aura and it's ugly
Your spirit must be rotten to the core
To a new-age guy like me you'll bring pain and misery
So dear I cannot love you anymore ...

Heh, that's kinda funny Bill! I'm getting this big leaky black hole in my aura just thinking about singing it though ... ;-)

Speaking about auras - weather permitting, I'm usually outside just before dawn, standing there practicing Qigong (a "soft" martial art like Tai Chi). As long as I don't look directly at them, I can always see a white cloud-like field surrounding the trees in the early morning half light.

Modern medical science has no problem accepting, measuring and studying various invisible "bio-electromagnetic" energies produced by the human body, mind and emotions - like brain-waves (through magnetic resonance imaging or CAT scans) or the galvanic skin response (increased heat and electrical energy produced by various emotional / mental states).   

Why then do the skeptics consider it so "flakey" to postulate that the human body - and in fact all living matter - generates and is surrounded by an "aura" - ie this same "bio-electromagnetic" field that lends itself so well to the instruments of scientific measurement? It only seems logical to me.

daylia

Subject: RE: BS: Boring science stuff we all believe...
From: *daylia*
Date: 02 Oct 04 - 08:52 AM

Bold As Love

Anger, he smiles,
towering in shiny metallic purple armour
Queen Jealousy, envy waits behind him
Her fiery green gown sneers at the grassy ground

Blue are the life-giving waters taken for granted,
They quietly understand
Once happy turquoise armies lay opposite ready,
But wonder why the fight is on
But they're all bold as love, yeah, they're all bold as love
Yeah, they're all bold as love
Just ask the axis

My red is so confident that he flashes trophies of war,
and ribbons of euphoria
Orange is young, full of daring,
But very unsteady for the first go round
My yellow in this case is not so mellow
In fact I'm trying to say it's frigthened like me
And all these emotions of mine keep holding me from, eh,
Giving my life to a rainbow like you
But, I'm bold as love, yeah, I'm bold as love
Yeah, yeah
Well I'm bold, bold as love (hear me talking, girl)
I'm bold as love
Just ask the axis (he knows everything)
Yeah,
yeah,
yeah!

- Jimi Hendrix



A healthy person's aura is usually pictured as embodying the full spectrum of rainbow colours, according to the traditional Hindu understanding of the 7 major chakras. Hmmm, wonder if Jimi was singing about his aura?!

Subject: RE: BS: Boring science stuff we all believe...
From: Rapparee
Date: 02 Oct 04 - 09:59 AM

I don't believe in boring science stuff!







(Actually, I find all of it pretty darned exciting.)

Subject: RE: BS: Boring science stuff we all believe...
From: Little Hawk
Date: 02 Oct 04 - 12:06 PM

Yeah, that is pretty neat about the Hendrix lyrics. I used to wonder about that song.

Bill, thanks for the hilarious "aura" song!

Subject: RE: BS: Boring science stuff we all believe...
From: GUEST,heric
Date: 02 Oct 04 - 01:31 PM

Did you know that when Sea Monkeys are born, they have three eyes? And as they get older and closer to adulthood, they lose that middle eye? (And you'd think that something like that would come in handy!) This is one way to tell when they are full grown, although it is hard to see the third eye.

A Sea Monkey's kidneys aren't located in its abdomen, the way ours are. Its kidneys are located in its head!

They breathe through their legs, using long tubes that come up from their feet. The gill plates along the sides of their legs help transport the oxygen they need to live! (This is why they are called "branchiopods".)

Subject: RE: BS: Boring science stuff we all believe...
From: Peace
Date: 02 Oct 04 - 05:15 PM

All the stuff below is from the following site which has thousands of interesting bits of info. Google
   
FirstScience.com - Fact File - Facts 1 to 20

1/ The speed of light is generally rounded down to 186,000 miles per second. In exact terms it is 299,792,458 m/s (metres per second - that is equal to 186,287.49 miles per second).

2/ It takes 8 minutes 17 seconds for light to travel from the Sun's surface to the Earth.

3/ October 12th, 1999 was declared "The Day of Six Billion" based on United Nations projections.

4/ 10 percent of all human beings ever born are alive at this very moment.

5/ The Earth spins at 1,000 mph but it travels through space at an incredible 67,000 mph.

6/ Every year over one million earthquakes shake the Earth.

7/ When Krakatoa erupted in 1883, its force was so great it could be heard 4,800 kilometres away in Australia.

8/ The largest ever hailstone weighed over 1kg and fell in Bangladesh in 1986.

9/ Every second around 100 lightning bolts strike the Earth.

10/ Every year lightning kills 1000 people.

11/ In October 1999 an Iceberg the size of London broke free from the Antarctic ice shelf.

12/ If you could drive your car straight up you would arrive in space in just over an hour.

13/ Human tapeworms can grow up to 22.9m.

14/ The Earth is 4.56 billion years old...the same age as the Moon and the Sun.

15/ The dinosaurs became extinct before the Rockies or the Alps were formed.

16/ Female black widow spiders eat their males after mating.

17/ When a flea jumps, the rate of acceleration is 20 times that of the space shuttle during launch.

18/ Webhosting.info have estimated that the United States has over 22,000 web hosting companies and over 25 million domain names!

19/ If our Sun were just inch in diameter, the nearest star would be 445 miles away.

20/ The Australian billygoat plum contains 100 times more vitamin C than an orange.

Subject: RE: BS: Boring science stuff we all believe...
From: Peace
Date: 02 Oct 04 - 05:19 PM

Number 40 from that site: A pig's orgasm lasts for 30 minutes.

Subject: RE: BS: Boring science stuff we all believe...
From: Little Hawk
Date: 02 Oct 04 - 06:24 PM

That would be an experience not easy to forget.

Subject: RE: BS: Boring science stuff we all believe...
From: Peace
Date: 02 Oct 04 - 08:33 PM

I'm sure I'll never know.

Subject: RE: BS: Boring science stuff we all believe...
From: Peace
Date: 02 Oct 04 - 08:43 PM

Number 3309 from that site:

Great White Sharks have seven senses. They can detect minute electrical charges eg from a seal's muscle contraction - using jelly filled canals in the head, called ampullae of Lorenzini. They can also detect changes in water pressure. They are also able to feel vibrations in the water using a line of canals that go from their head to tails. Called a "lateral line", these canals are filled with water and contain sensory cells with hairs growing out of them. These hairs move when the water vibrates and alerts the shark to potential prey.

Subject: RE: BS: Boring science stuff we all believe...
From: Rapparee
Date: 03 Oct 04 - 10:18 AM

Recent scientific discoveries (since about the first of July):

* Archaeologists found a 1,000-years-old brewery in southern Peru that may be the oldest large-scale brewery ever found in the Andes. Remains of the facility were uncovered on Cerro Baúl, a mountaintop city, home to elite members of the Wari Empire AD 600-1000. Predating the Inca Empire by at least four centuries, this brewery made chicha, a fermented beverage similar to beer that played an important role in ritual feasting and drinking during Peru's first empire.

* [The] discovery of a cooking hearth and artifacts including thousands of bone fragments may settle for good the debate about where the Donner family camped and whether they resorted to cannibalism to survive being trapped by snow in the Sierra Nevada mountains. The find was made by a team led by archaeologists from the University of Oregon and the University of Montana working at Alder Creek Camp near Truckee, Calif.

* What happens to painkillers, antibiotics and other medicines after their work is done, and they end up in the wastewater stream? The National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) is using laboratory experiments to help answer this question by studying what happens to pharmaceuticals when they react with chlorine--a disinfectant commonly used in wastewater treatment.

* A team of Texas A&M University and Louisiana State University scientists conducted a research cruise in late August to the "dead zone" - a region in the northern Gulf of Mexico that suffers from low oxygen and results in huge marine losses - and much to their surprise, the "dead zone" area had either moved or had disappeared completely.

* A report by Yale physicists in the journal Nature describes the first coherent coupling of a single photon to a single superconducting qubit (quantum bit or "artificial atom"). This new paradigm for quantum optics allows experiments in a micro-chip electrical circuit using microwaves instead of visible photons and lasers.

* In Nature, a Yale mathematician presents models showing that the most recent person who was a direct ancestor of all humans currently alive may have lived just a few thousand years ago. "While we may not all be 'brothers,' the models suggest we are all hundredth cousins or so," said Joseph T. Chang, professor in the Department of Statistics at Yale University and senior author on the paper.

* Despite a long-standing international ban on ivory trade, African elephants continue to be killed in large numbers for their prized tusks. But a team headed by a University of Washington biologist has devised a new means of determining the geographic origin of ivory that could prove a potent tool in slowing elephant poaching and the illegal ivory trade by identifying hot spots where enforcement should be increased.

* A Temple University environmental engineer has outlined new mathematical procedures, or techniques, to produce analytical solutions of the complex, non-linear equations of water flow in soils. These new techniques will help with the development of more accurate and more efficient flood forecasting and contaminant propagation predictions.

* Researchers led by Wilfred M. Post of the Oak Ridge National Laboratory describe in the October 2004 issue of BioScience an approach to assessing "promising" techniques for mitigating global warming caused by the greenhouse effect. Agriculturally based options for reducing net greenhouse gas emissions by increasing sequestration of carbon in soils "should be evaluated to see how competitive they are in comparison with a variety of other options," according to Post's team.

* According to a study directed by Phouthone Keohavong, Ph.D., associate professor, department of environmental and occupational health, University of Pittsburgh Graduate School of Public Health, individuals in Xuan Wei County, China, exposed to smoky coal emissions from cooking and heating their homes may carry genetic mutations that greatly increase their risk of developing lung cancer. The study is being presented Oct. 3 at the 35th Annual Meeting of the Environmental Mutagen Society in Pittsburgh.

* Changes in U.S. forests caused by shifts in land use practices may have inadvertently worsened ozone pollution, according to a study led by Princeton University scientists.

Heck, that's enough for now. I'll see about posting some other research summaries later.

Subject: RE: BS: Boring science stuff we all believe...
From: Cluin
Date: 03 Oct 04 - 07:15 PM

Dolphins are so hyperintelligent that after only a few short weeks of captivity, they can train human beings to stand at the edge of their pools and offer them fresh fish.

Subject: RE: BS: Boring science stuff we all believe...
From: Amos
Date: 03 Oct 04 - 10:18 PM

The intelligence of dolphins is unquestionable. Yesterday I was out in a kayak on an expanse of the Pacific Ocean and a pod of dolphins began breaching all around me and we played tag for thirty minutes or so going hither and yon. They are much smarter than the average subscriber to the Mudcat, for example -- they ignored me!! **bg** Seriously, it was a real pleasure to be able to see them from so close -- a few feet away.

A

Subject: RE: BS: Boring science stuff we all believe...
From: Cluin
Date: 03 Oct 04 - 10:25 PM

Very cool, Amos. :)

Subject: RE: BS: Boring science stuff we all believe...
From: 42
Date: 04 Oct 04 - 07:22 AM

If only two negatives did make a positive!
j

Subject: RE: BS: Boring science stuff we all believe...
From: Rapparee
Date: 04 Oct 04 - 07:55 AM

Only in logic! I've had bunches and bunches of negatives together for years and years and they stay negatives and I have to have prints made anyway.

Subject: RE: BS: Boring science stuff we all believe...
From: Uncle_DaveO
Date: 04 Oct 04 - 10:35 AM

Ah, but a positive print is the negative of the negative!

Dave Oesterreich

Subject: RE: BS: Boring science stuff we all believe...
From: Rapparee
Date: 04 Oct 04 - 10:43 AM

So, if I scan a photographic negative into my computer, and then reverse the colors, I have a positive of the negative. And if I do that again, I have a negative of the positive negative! And if I do that again, I have a postitive of the negative positive negative. And if I do it again


My head hurts. I'm going to go lay down now.

Subject: RE: BS: Boring science stuff we all believe...
From: GUEST,heric
Date: 04 Oct 04 - 12:22 PM

Cluin: That's true about the dolphins, but I saw a malamute who had trained a woman in a fur coat and high heels to pick up its own feces after him!! My brother refused the same efforts by his retriever, based on his logical conclusion that if the aliens arrive and see humans doing that, "who do you think they'll sign the Treaty with?"


I had the same adventure as yourn, Amos, except that the kayak was a 12' aluminum cartopper, the chop was higher than the gunwhale, and the dolphins were killer whales surfacing on all sides. I felt alive that day!

"To any meditative Magian rover, this serene Pacific, once beheld, must ever after be the sea of his adoption. It rolls the midmost waters of the world, the Indian ocean and Atlantic being but its arms. . . . Thus this mysterious, divine Pacific zones the world's whole bulk about; makes all coasts one bay to it; seems the tide-beating heart of earth."

Ishmael at p. 478.

Subject: RE: BS: Boring science stuff we all believe...
From: Rapparee
Date: 04 Oct 04 - 01:00 PM

Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.
                --Arthur C. Clarke, Technology and the Future

Subject: RE: BS: Boring science stuff we all believe...
From: GUEST,Fossil
Date: 05 Oct 04 - 07:23 AM

OK, enough thread drift already.... Guest TIA and LH have between them produced a pretty good analysis of what the belief system we know as "science" is about and how it works. That it works - and doesn't really conflict with the other belief systems we know as "religions" or "New Age philosophies" - will be obvious to anyone who has used a mobile phone, a GPS system or a digital camera lately. And I am aware that these things are the result of the application of technology based on a mixture of science and concepts of measurement (when I programme the GPS on my boat to help me find the way to a port, I use the artificial conventions of latitude and longitude to do it, but it works pretty well in the real world).

One other concept I'd like to chuck into the debate is that of statistics. "Experimental scientific" enquiry into natural phenomena is based on the idea that ANYONE - approaching the theory from any philosophical angle - can repeat the experiment described and should be able to get the same result. In fact, of course, this isn't the case, particularly where the experimental methods are inadequate. That's why medical science for example uses statistical analysis of large numbers of results to eliminate as far as possible the effects of observational variation on the conclusions that can be drawn from a given theory.

And the next time anyone comes at you with statements like "Science doesn't have all the answers - my uncle smoked 100 cigarettes a day and he lived to be 95", you can retaliate with the statistician's put-down "A sample of one proves NOTHING!"

Subject: RE: BS: Boring science stuff we all believe...
From: DMcG
Date: 05 Oct 04 - 07:44 AM

Surely statistics are the thing none of us believe? Every scientist (or at least any mathematically trained one) is aware that statistics can be easily distorted accidentally and every cynic knows they can be easily distorted on purpose!

More precisely, statistics has as its purpose throwing away irrelevant data and retaining the relevant. That's hard. Not only that, it involves value judgements all along the way about what is and what is not relevant. Often these judgements are hidden under the shroud of the mathematical process itself, but they are still there.

Subject: RE: BS: Boring science stuff we all believe...
From: TIA
Date: 05 Oct 04 - 08:34 AM

Oh my. Not true DMcG. That is not the purpose of statistics at all. It is, in fact a way of making value judgements in a totally NON-subjective way. For instance, if 30 people take a new drug, and 30 people with the same condition do not, and 12 of the drug-takers improve, while 8 of the non-drug-takers improve, does this result indicate that the drug works? What if the test is redone by another scientist (as it most certainly should be), and the results are 11 out of 37 drug-taker improvements vs. 9 out of 32 non-drug-takers - does this result support the first study?

Or how about this one (the answer will boggle your mind):

If you are tested for a disease that occurs in 0.1% of the population using a test that gives the correct result 90% of the time, what is the probability that you have the disease? Hint - it's darn small!

Yes, statistics have been used by the unscrupulous or ill-informed to "prove" untrue hypotheses, but the best defense against this is to become educated regarding the proper use of statistics, not to dismiss this powerful tool of objectivity.

If someone hits their thumb with a hammer, don't throw away yours and try to push the nails in with your fingers!

I strongly recommend the following book to the scientst and (especially) non-scientist alike -

Statistical Tricks and Traps: An Illustrated Guide to the Misuses of Statistics by Ennis C. Almer

Read this, and the shroud is easily removed in most cases.

Subject: RE: BS: Boring science stuff we all believe...
From: TIA
Date: 05 Oct 04 - 08:43 AM

Oops, forgot to specify in question two that your test is positive.

Subject: RE: BS: Boring science stuff we all believe...
From: DMcG
Date: 05 Oct 04 - 08:52 AM

Sorry, I was not attempting to dismiss the subject at all - it would be unwise as I have spent a lot of time working in companies producing statistics!

My point was intended to be that dealing with statistics is one of those branches of mathematics where it is relatively easy for even an expert to slip up (others examples include probability theory and queueing theory). It takes real effort and dedication to ensure you are getting things things right and using the right measures. As such, every scientist finding things being revealed based on the statistical nature of the results needs to be very careful that not only were the experiements done properly but also the statistics based upon them were done properly. To take a very simple example, you may decide to work to 95% confidence levels in the results. Once you have done that, the processes are very well defined. But why did you come to choose 95% in the first place? That's one of the places where unintentional bias can occur.

Subject: RE: BS: Boring science stuff we all believe...
From: Rapparee
Date: 05 Oct 04 - 09:03 AM

God does not play dice with the Universe, pontificated Einstein, who simply would not accept quantum mechanics.

Berty, thou shouldst be living in this hour!!

If I reject statistics can I gamble without losing, live forever while doing anything I want to, and be assured that nuclear weapons won't go boom?

Subject: RE: BS: Boring science stuff we all believe...
From: MMario
Date: 05 Oct 04 - 09:12 AM

Any sufficiently advanced magic is indistinguishable from technology.

Subject: RE: BS: Boring science stuff we all believe...
From: TIA
Date: 05 Oct 04 - 09:21 AM

Right you are DmcG. And, any scientist who screws up his statistics (or any other aspect of a test) should rightly expect to get savaged by her or his peers (and later, hopefully, make up over beer and strumming). It's the openess of absolutely everything to question that makes science scientific.



P.S. If you tested positive, the odds are 50-50 that you actually have the disease. (I hope I did this math correctly, or I must be savaged, then given beer)

Subject: RE: BS: Boring science stuff we all believe...
From: TIA
Date: 05 Oct 04 - 09:22 AM

MMario - Houdini would certainly agree.

Subject: RE: BS: Boring science stuff we all believe...
From: Rapparee
Date: 05 Oct 04 - 10:43 AM

Seems to me that the chances that you have a disease are ALWAYS 50-50: you either do or you don't. Same as the chances for snow in Death Valley in July....