BS: Storm Thread

Subject: BS: Storm Thread
From: CarolC
Date: 01 Sep 08 - 09:32 PM

There's so many storms sprouting off the coast of Africa right now, it might be useful to have a thread to give people a heads up about them as they emerge.

Right now, we have Hurricanes Gustav and Hanna, and Tropical Storm Ike. There are some other areas of activity that could develop into named storms in the next few days.


Here's the five day cone for Gustav...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/144112.shtml?5day#contents


Here's the five day cone for Hanna...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/144212.shtml?5day#contents


Here's the five day cone for Ike...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?5day#contents


Graphic showing all of the storms and other weather activity...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml


Satellite imagery for the northwestern Atlantic...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/vis-l.jpg


Satellite imagery for the area of the Atlantic just off the northwestern coast of Africa (this one doesn't work at night)...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EATL/VIS/20.jpg

Subject: RE: BS: Storm Thread
From: CarolC
Date: 02 Sep 08 - 01:55 PM

Gustav is now a tropical storm. Hanna has gone from hurricane back to tropical storm, but it's predicted to become a hurricane again before making landfall (probably in South Carolina). One of the areas of development has become Tropical Storm Josephine. Here's the five day cone for Josephine...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?5day#contents

Subject: RE: BS: Storm Thread
From: Bee-dubya-ell
Date: 03 Sep 08 - 07:33 AM

The current 5-day cone for Hanna almost looks like somebody's idea of a joke. It has the storm hitting South Carolina as a hurricane and then hugging the Atlantic coast all the way to Newfoundland, not dropping below tropical storm intensity the entire way. If that track holds, it will affect every city on the Atlantic seaboard from Savannah northward. Yikes!

Subject: RE: BS: Storm Thread
From: CarolC
Date: 03 Sep 08 - 08:20 AM

I know, and it looks like it might make landfall just south of us, and we'll be on the tornado side of the storm if it does. Yikes indeed.

Subject: RE: BS: Storm Thread
From: Bill D
Date: 03 Sep 08 - 11:05 AM

We in DC won't get a hurricane, but it sure looks rainy for Friday night/Saturday.

Our monthly Open Sing is this Friday night...

Subject: RE: BS: Storm Thread
From: Donuel
Date: 03 Sep 08 - 11:12 AM

I had a feeling about this season and told my neighbor to arrange for some tree topping for safety reasons this spring.

She didn't believe what I was saying.

I expect to be making our own electricity for a week or two here in MD

The last time this area of MD was hit by a powerful hurricaine was over 110 years ago. Virtually all the trees back then were laid down.

The last great wind here was 4 years ago with 70 mph gusts from Hurricane Fred.

Subject: RE: BS: Storm Thread
From: CarolC
Date: 03 Sep 08 - 03:24 PM

Now Hanna looks like it will be making landfall right here on top of us. Hopefully its path will continue to shift eastwards, and if that happens, it won't spend much time directly on top of much of the coastline at all. Nevertheless, while I have a good supply of water on hand, I believe I will be fetching some more before Saturday.

Subject: RE: BS: Storm Thread
From: CarolC
Date: 03 Sep 08 - 09:45 PM

Ike is a category 3 hurricane now, and heading for the Bahamas. It's too early to see where it'll be making landfall on the continental US.

Subject: RE: BS: Storm Thread
From: CarolC
Date: 04 Sep 08 - 11:50 PM

Hanna will probably make landfall right over my head, but it will probably remain a tropical storm.

Ike is a category 4 hurricane now, and it looks like it's aiming for Miami.

Too early to tell where Josephine's headed. And there's a new area that is being watched for signs of development just slightly to the southwest of Josephine.

Subject: RE: BS: Storm Thread
From: CarolC
Date: 05 Sep 08 - 01:05 PM

Hanna appears to be a very persistent storm. After it leaves Newfoundland, it's supposed to head across the Atlantic over to the UK (still as a tropical storm).

Ike appears to now be headed toward the gulf coast. It's slowed down to a category 3.

It's still to early to tell where Josephine's going to go.

Subject: RE: BS: Storm Thread
From: Bill D
Date: 05 Sep 08 - 01:08 PM

we are getting flash flood warnings for Maryland from tonight late thru Thurs. I guess I better go read the gutter thread again.

Subject: RE: BS: Storm Thread
From: Bee-dubya-ell
Date: 05 Sep 08 - 08:09 PM

In anticipation of a possible visit by Ike, I spent the afternoon cutting down a large unhealthy oak tree in our yard. It needed to come down and I was planning on waiting for cooler weather, but I decided to go ahead and take it down now so I could drop it where I wanted instead of letting Ike crush my house with it.

I do not like Ike.

Subject: RE: BS: Storm Thread
From: GUEST,pattyClink
Date: 05 Sep 08 - 10:00 PM

B.W.L.,
well, that hardly seems sporting. I was so looking forward to it.
your friend,
Ike

Subject: RE: BS: Storm Thread
From: CarolC
Date: 06 Sep 08 - 08:38 AM

Hanna passed uneventfully for this household. Some of the leaves of my vegetable plants got stripped off, but it looks like most of them will survive. The tomato plants and cages are leaning way over, but it's getting close to the end of the season anyway, so that might not be too much of a problem.

It looks like the most likely path for Ike will bypass Florida altogether, and head straight for Louisiana.

Subject: RE: BS: Storm Thread
From: CarolC
Date: 06 Sep 08 - 08:43 AM

I find it to be an interesting and perhaps poetic coincidence that the storm situation got so (um... ) frantic, while the Republican convention was going on, and shortly after the convention ended, things started calming down a lot.

Subject: RE: BS: Storm Thread
From: Donuel
Date: 06 Sep 08 - 09:55 AM

Hurricaine IKE is headed STRAIGHT toward GITMO !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Subject: RE: BS: Storm Thread
From: CarolC
Date: 06 Sep 08 - 06:39 PM

Holy crap. It looks like Ike is headed right to the same part of Louisiana that got hit by Gustav.

Subject: RE: BS: Storm Thread
From: Sandy Mc Lean
Date: 06 Sep 08 - 08:04 PM

Hanna is going to hit Nova Scotia tomorrow. I guess that it has run out of steam as a hurricane but wind and rain are still a problem. It has been the wettest summer on record here and the ground is totally saturated. A few days ago a local storm caused a lot of flooding and road washout here on Cape Breton Island. We have seldome seen the sun since early August, but it was nice today. Tomorrow will belong to Hanna.

Subject: RE: BS: Storm Thread
From: gnu
Date: 06 Sep 08 - 08:09 PM

The track.

Subject: RE: BS: Storm Thread
From: Jeri
Date: 06 Sep 08 - 08:13 PM

Hanna's going to hit New Hampshire tonight. We're getting the preliminaries now and there's a flash flood watch from 8 PM to morning. I'm out of any flood zone, but the power could go out (as it frequently does).

Subject: RE: BS: Storm Thread
From: Sandy Mc Lean
Date: 06 Sep 08 - 08:40 PM

On Cape Breton's northwest coast they fear no hurricane because they live through several suetes a year. The same is true for the west coast of Newfoundland. The suete is a wind that accelerates through the mountains in a vortex and then from the south-east sweeps to the sea. It becomes a local hurricane with no name. In Newfoundland it used to blow the trains of the track.

The Suete

Subject: RE: BS: Storm Thread
From: Sandy Mc Lean
Date: 06 Sep 08 - 09:05 PM

And we dance as the wind blows.......................

Th Lords Of The Dance

Subject: RE: BS: Storm Thread
From: Gorgeous Gary
Date: 06 Sep 08 - 10:04 PM

Well, Hanna wasn't much over here in Rockville (MD). I'm pretty sure I've seen worse thunderstorms.

-- Gary

Subject: RE: BS: Storm Thread
From: SINSULL
Date: 06 Sep 08 - 10:37 PM

Heavy rain, Very heavy rain. The kitties have decided to stay in but no wind and certainly no hurricane. maybe I will sleep in the sunroom and listen to the rain - very soothing.

Subject: RE: BS: Storm Thread
From: CarolC
Date: 06 Sep 08 - 11:54 PM

I spent quite a lot of the time Hanna was overhead out on my front porch. I was quite nervous because of the tornado watch (I hate those), but there's something kind of irresistible about watching while the wind howls and roars through the trees and whips them around, feeling the fine water spray like needles on the skin, and the smell of salt air the storm brings in from the ocean. I don't love storms, but I can't seem to help myself watching them when they're here. I don't think I would mind them nearly so much if it weren't for the tornadoes.

When I tried to go back in the house, I looked like that guy in the video of the Suete. I had a hell of a time getting the door closed.

Subject: RE: BS: Storm Thread
From: Bee
Date: 07 Sep 08 - 12:33 AM

I'm glad everyone seems to have survived the storma so far (trying not to think about Haiti)

Yes, we're now waiting for the wet tail-end of Hannah. Husband is working away and has called me twice today to make sure, in case of high winds, I've properly tied down his prized deck ornament, the barbecue.

Sandy, I know the Suete, and I have spent a terrifying night in a tent on a North facing cliff in the Magdalenes during a roaring gale, but the very idea of going through another Juan causes anxious twitches.

Subject: RE: BS: Storm Thread
From: Janie
Date: 07 Sep 08 - 01:05 AM

Hanna (I'm glad to say) was pretty anticlimatic in my area also. Sister Annie, over on the Eastern Shore, said it was no worse than a nor'easter when it passed through there. Brought some much needed rain here, and moved through fast enough to not cause major flooding. Not sure about Down East, but here on the Piedmont, the water tables are so depleted that it isn't even muddy, after 3 inches fell. Creeks rose quickly, then dropped just as fast. The power didn't even flicker.

My heart goes out to the people of Haiti, Cuba and other Carribbean locales as Ike approaches. For many, their daily lives are ones of quiet desparation. They are now already in very dire straits from the effects of Gustav and Hanna.

Prayer won't protect them, but I pray for them, nonetheless.

Subject: RE: BS: Storm Thread
From: CarolC
Date: 07 Sep 08 - 01:18 AM

Ike has gone back up to category 4 again (definitely bad news).

Josephine has been downgraded to a tropical depression, although it's possible that it could redevelop back into a tropical storm.

Subject: RE: BS: Storm Thread
From: maeve
Date: 07 Sep 08 - 06:08 AM

Thanks for this thread, CarolC.

Subject: RE: BS: Storm Thread
From: gnu
Date: 07 Sep 08 - 07:03 AM

I stayed up til midnight to gauge the forecast "rain event accompanied by high winds". We were forecast to see the "leading band of showers" begin in late afternoon, followed by "rapidly intensifying conditions" and "possibly see local cells of very active weather". These conditions were "expected to continue and fluctuate across The Maritimes" until Suday evening", when the "worst would be over."

Well, it started to piddle a bit at midnight and there was a slight breeze. I got up at 3 and it was raining pretty good, a bit of a breeze, and it was very warm and very humid. I closed the windows and put on the AC.

She's raining a clip right now and the wind is about 5kph... forecast to be as high as 15kph and forecast to get another 40mm until light showers at 3PM (ADT).

Now, I ain't complainin that we ain't takin a hit, but I am complainin about the TV and radio weather-twits scarin little old ladies like me mum just for advertising dollars. I have been watching this storm for days and it was never expected to be a particularly bad storm for us... just for TV and radio ratings.

Subject: RE: BS: Storm Thread
From: Bee
Date: 07 Sep 08 - 09:33 AM

Wet and windy here, and warnings are only for heavy rainfall. I think my darlin's barbecue is safe.

Subject: RE: BS: Storm Thread
From: CarolC
Date: 07 Sep 08 - 01:03 PM

Considering the way Hanna's behaving now, I'm surprised that it hasn't been downgraded to a tropical depression. I wonder what characteristics Hanna has that are the same as a tropical storm and different than a tropical depression (although this NOAA graphic says Hanna still has maximum sustained winds of 50 mph).

Subject: RE: BS: Storm Thread
From: artbrooks
Date: 07 Sep 08 - 01:29 PM

My mother, who lives in Pensacola, went to my sister's in Atlanta when Gustav approached. She'll stay there until Ike makes up his mind.

Subject: RE: BS: Storm Thread
From: Alice
Date: 07 Sep 08 - 02:00 PM

Ike looks more powerful than Gustav from what the meteorologists are reporting. Poor Haiti. They have so little resources to deal with the flooding and lack of food and clean water.

Subject: RE: BS: Storm Thread
From: Folkiedave
Date: 07 Sep 08 - 02:09 PM

Hanna appears to be a very persistent storm. After it leaves Newfoundland, it's supposed to head across the Atlantic over to the UK (still as a tropical storm).

Oh hell - we have had enough rain already.

(Aside - a friend of mine was in the USA teaching soccer in the 70's and after his time was over, he went down to the coast he was met by people fleeing because of a hurricane. So he came home early and went to Cornwall for his holiday instead. Only to be met by the self-same hurricane again!!)

Subject: RE: BS: Storm Thread
From: CarolC
Date: 07 Sep 08 - 02:30 PM

Hanna doesn't look like it's going to hit the UK now. It looks like it's going to head north before it gets to the UK.

Subject: RE: BS: Storm Thread
From: Bee
Date: 07 Sep 08 - 02:33 PM

As the crow flies, we are 3km. from the seashore. Even over the wind and rain, the surf is just thundering. Wish I could get over there. There's nothing like a NS beach after a few hurricanes - water warm as a bath, pushed up from the tropics along with a few confused tropical fish, and waves pounding....

Subject: RE: BS: Storm Thread
From: Sandy Mc Lean
Date: 07 Sep 08 - 02:59 PM

The rain has stopped in Cape Breton, at least for now. Nothing but a stiff south breeze blowing. It may not be done with us but so far onll some heavy showers.

Subject: RE: BS: Storm Thread
From: Bee
Date: 07 Sep 08 - 03:17 PM

Damn, Sandy, I am so homesick lately. I haven't lived in CB since 1969 when I left for college, but the past few years I've longed to move home; visits are just not enough. A few more years and we hope to do just that, somewhere north of Baddeck. I don't know why we become so attached to the dirt we came from, but it is a powerful drive.

Have a care and don't get too wet, eh!

Subject: RE: BS: Storm Thread
From: CarolC
Date: 08 Sep 08 - 12:26 PM

Ike's currently a category 2, and it's not following the length of Cuba as it looked like it was going to do before. It crossed Cuba the narrow way once, and now it looks like it's going to follow the coast and then cross Cuba the narrow way once more. After that, the most likely path appears to be to the coast of Texas.

Subject: RE: BS: Storm Thread
From: PoppaGator
Date: 08 Sep 08 - 01:55 PM

Last night, the local weather reports in New Orleans showed that the Ike predictions ~ still pretty sketchy a week or so before predicted landfall ~ were predicated on the possibility/likelihood of a high-pressure area over Louisiana that should deflect the storm to one side or the other.

In other words, while the storm could hit anywhere from the Florida panhandle to the Rio Grande, the center of that area is NOT the most likely landfall, as one might think. If conditions develop according to rpedicitons ( ha ha ), the central Gulf Coast is actually a less likely site than the areas to either side.

If it does head this way (toward New Orleans), we'll drive all the way to my sister's house in Illinois. Can't aim any closer because we can't afford any more motel bills.

Subject: RE: BS: Storm Thread
From: CarolC
Date: 08 Sep 08 - 02:14 PM

I was wondering how they did that (predicted the path). Thanks.

Subject: RE: BS: Storm Thread
From: artbrooks
Date: 08 Sep 08 - 02:33 PM

Ike is currently heading right toward Galveston, according to the National Hurricane Center. Today is the 108th anniversary of the hurricane that killed 8,000 or so people in Galveston.

Subject: RE: BS: Storm Thread
From: Charley Noble
Date: 08 Sep 08 - 09:16 PM

We were resident in Chatham, out on the "elbow" of Cape Cod, which should be the most exposed part of Cape Cod to a storm moving up the coast. We're happy to report that all we received was gale winds and rain Saturday night. A few small branches blown down and gloriously large waves on the nearby beach. My favorite kind of storm!

Cheerily,
Charley Noble

Subject: RE: BS: Storm Thread
From: CarolC
Date: 22 Sep 08 - 07:48 PM

There's a tropical weather disturbance that has a medium potential for developing into a tropical storm. Right now it's dumping a lot of rain in the area of the various islands to the east of Central America...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/index.shtml

Subject: RE: BS: Storm Thread
From: Stringsinger
Date: 23 Sep 08 - 11:37 AM

"Prayer won't protect them, but I pray for them, nonetheless."

Prayer won't do anything for them but facing up to the reality of Global Warming
advocated by responsible scientists and acting on their proposals might unless we
have McCain/Palin deniers in leadership roles.

Naomi Klein covered this quite succinctly on the recent Bill Maher show.

Subject: RE: BS: Storm Thread
From: CarolC
Date: 23 Sep 08 - 03:30 PM

The tropical weather disturbance, currently over Hispaniola, now has a high potential for developing into a tropical storm.

Subject: RE: BS: Storm Thread
From: Wesley S
Date: 23 Sep 08 - 03:43 PM

As referenced above here's a link to Naomi Kleins book:

Shock Doctrine

Subject: RE: BS: Storm Thread
From: skarpi
Date: 23 Sep 08 - 04:26 PM

ja well they all end up here now its raining like hell up here .
and its very windy

kv Skarpi

Subject: RE: BS: Storm Thread
From: CarolC
Date: 24 Sep 08 - 10:20 PM

There's an extratropical weather system right off the coast of North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, and northern Florida that's currently headed west. This system currently has a high potential of developing into a tropical cyclone formation.

The system mentioned in my last two posts is currently just east of the Turks and Caicos Islands, and now has only a medium potential for developing into a tropical cyclone formation.

Subject: RE: BS: Storm Thread
From: CarolC
Date: 25 Sep 08 - 05:02 PM

The tropical weather disturbance that's been hanging around the Caribbean is now a tropical storm - Tropical Storm Kyle, and it's headed due north. It could make landfall anywhere from Rhode Island to Newfoundland.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/203152.shtml?5day#contents

Subject: RE: BS: Storm Thread
From: CarolC
Date: 25 Sep 08 - 05:09 PM

I should add that Kyle is supposed to become a hurricane about halfway between where it is now and were it will ultimately make landfall.

Subject: RE: BS: Storm Thread
From: CarolC
Date: 28 Sep 08 - 07:06 PM

Graphic for Kyle, and another storm system that has a medium potential for developing into a tropical system and appears to be headed for the same area that's getting hit by Kyle...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/index.shtml

Five day cone for Kyle. Looks like Kyle is going to make landfall at the southern tip of Nova Scotia...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/203152.shtml?5day#contents

Satellite imagery for both systems...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/vis-l.jpg

Subject: RE: BS: Storm Thread
From: Stilly River Sage
Date: 29 Sep 08 - 11:07 AM

Stay in and stay dry, guys!

Subject: RE: BS: Storm Thread
From: CarolC
Date: 29 Sep 08 - 03:11 PM

The weather disturbance that I mentioned in my last couple of posts has become Subtropical Storm Laura. Here's the five day cone for Laura. It appears to be headed for Ireland and the UK...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/143835.shtml?5day#contents

Subject: RE: BS: Storm Thread
From: CarolC
Date: 15 Oct 08 - 12:51 AM

Hurricane Omar looks like it might be headed up toward Iceland or the UK after it crosses some islands in the Carribean and goes up the middle of the Atlantic. Here's the five day cone for Omar...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/024639.shtml?5day#contents

Subject: RE: BS: Storm Thread
From: CarolC
Date: 07 Nov 08 - 11:54 AM

Five day cone for Hurricane Paloma, currently category 1, which is headed for Cuba and the open Atlantic...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/143214.shtml?5day#contents