BS: Could we really see a summer in 2009 ?

Subject: BS: Could we really see a summer in 2009 ?
From: Victor in Mapperton
Date: 30 Dec 08 - 11:29 AM

An interesting story on the ITN news this lunchtime. Climate scientists have predicted that 2009 is set to be one of the five warmest years on record.

The average global temperature for 2009 is expected to be more than 0.4C above the long term average, the Met Office and University of East Anglia researchers said.

The Met Office also predicted a rapid return to long-term warming for global temperatures and an increased probability of record temperatures after 2009.

Currently the warmest year on record is 1998, which saw average temperatures of 14.52C - well above the 1961 to 1990 long-term average of 14C. I was surprised, as I thought 1975 or 1976 was warmer.

Maybe I will grow something other than moss in my hanging baskets this year !

Subject: RE: BS: Could we really see a summer in 2009 ?
From: Mr Red
Date: 30 Dec 08 - 12:12 PM

they have been telling us that UK temperatures this winter are the lowest for 30 years. And do we believe them?

Mind you they are trying to justify why the hospitals have no spare capacity.
The clue is in the "spare capacity" region of the "coping with fluctuations" spectrum.
Spare capacity is insurance, and not wasted resources per se.

Rule of thumb tells me that when the roads are so cold that salt does not melt the snow for a week, it is COLD. see 1984/5.
Barely any snow in Gloucestershire so far. Dust more like.

Warmer summers mean more rain and floods can be anticipated, though not predicted.
Now which year will Shrewsbury festival get flooded? - before or during rather than 3 weeks after. Saul canal festival have given-up the fight against high rivers. One or two small festivals were cancelled because of floods. Pickering cancelled because of vertical water. Warwick 2007 and Bromyard survived admirably with emergency planning.

Warm but moist 2009. Not much of a prediction, more extrapolation.

Subject: RE: BS: Could we really see a summer in 2009 ?
From: Victor in Mapperton
Date: 30 Dec 08 - 12:25 PM

Talking about hospitals Mr. Red, I am just out of one and I could not believe how busy it was, not just winter flu's or falls (they come later).

Subject: RE: BS: Could we really see a summer in 2009 ?
From: Wesley S
Date: 30 Dec 08 - 02:15 PM

Here in north Texas we've been known to have 30 days in a row of teps over 100 degrees. I've seen 113 before. It's tough to grow things in our hanging baskets too other than wilted plants.

Subject: RE: BS: Could we really see a summer in 2009 ?
From: Richard Bridge
Date: 30 Dec 08 - 04:36 PM

'75 was great - and dammit I was doing my solicitors' part II exam course in Chester, so hardly saw the sun!

Subject: RE: BS: Could we really see a summer in 2009 ?
From: Victor in Mapperton
Date: 30 Dec 08 - 05:19 PM

Ah Richard I remember it well. We bought a caravan that year and saw a lot of the country. The music wasn't bad either.

Subject: RE: BS: Could we really see a summer in 2009 ?
From: Richard Bridge
Date: 30 Dec 08 - 06:03 PM

Hmm. I did see a fair bit of three physiotherapists in Nottingham and another girl in Kent, however...

Subject: RE: BS: Could we really see a summer in 2009 ?
From: Victor in Mapperton
Date: 30 Dec 08 - 06:17 PM

By God man you must have been fit ! I have to work from memory these days !

Subject: RE: BS: Could we really see a summer in 2009 ?
From: John MacKenzie
Date: 30 Dec 08 - 06:29 PM

Well higher temperatures mean more rain in the UK
When it is warmer, more evaporation from the sea takes place, this forms rain clouds. As we have a maritime climate with the prevailing winds being westerly. I'm afraid it's likely to be a wet summer, albeit a tad warmer.

Subject: RE: BS: Could we really see a summer in 2009 ?
From: GUEST,lox
Date: 30 Dec 08 - 06:33 PM

I don't believe it - Its so friggin cold here now that I have doubts we'll ever see the sun again!!

Subject: RE: BS: Could we really see a summer in 2009 ?
From: GUEST,Pete the Hat
Date: 30 Dec 08 - 06:44 PM

Dont worry Richard the sun shines on the rightous so we will all be alright at Knockholt 2009

Subject: RE: BS: Could we really see a summer in 2009 ?
From: DougR
Date: 31 Dec 08 - 01:10 AM

Looks to me like another "sky is falling" thread. One hasn't experienced a real summer until they have experienced one in sunny Arizona.

DougR

Subject: RE: BS: Could we really see a summer in 2009 ?
From: Liz the Squeak
Date: 31 Dec 08 - 04:40 AM

1976 wasn't warmer, it was dryer, so if Giok's theory is correct, it was also cooler.   It just felt warm because we didn't have the clouds blocking the sun. I remember being outside all day, every day and not getting overly hot, it was definately more comfortable than 1998 was...

Mind you, we had a 6 week dry spell in 2008, from March 17th to May 2nd, we had no precipitation of any kind (but of course, predictably, at the May Day Bank Holiday weekend it pissed down like the wrath of God...), but it wasn't really noticeable because it was still spring and the general weather was cooler.

I'll just do what I always do, look out of the window and decide if it's ordinary sandals or wet weather sandals or stay indoors with the computer sandals... of course, where I am now, it's stay indoors or freeze your arse off... but that would be telling!

LTS