BS: Long Range Weather Forcasting

Subject: BS: Long Range Weather Forcasting
From: Alan Day
Date: 09 Jan 10 - 01:58 PM

It has become obvious that Long Range Forecasting by the Weather experts are pure guesswork. The Summer forecast was wrong and now the Winter. If this is based on guesswork why issue it at all. Some important decisions are made on the back of this information. Gas storage, Salt/ grit storage, Holidays- Home or abroad, major events, local events the list goes on. Lives could be lost due to this information. The Weather forecasters have difficulty predicting the weather day by day. They are however brilliant at letting you know the weather outside your window. They look out before they tell you?
Only the bookies seem to know that it will not snow on Xmas day.
Weather forecasters please shut up and let us have a guess at it ourselves.
Al

Subject: RE: BS: Long Range Weather Forcasting
From: Ebbie
Date: 09 Jan 10 - 03:09 PM

In Juneau, southeast Alaska, forecasters are pretty good. Most of the year they win by saying "Rain Likely" and in the wintertime they can with confidence predict a bit more than 100 inches of snow. What's the problem? :)

Subject: RE: BS: Long Range Weather Forcasting
From: Geoff the Duck
Date: 09 Jan 10 - 03:19 PM

In a job I used to do, I was on a motorcycle patrolling parks in Bradford. My patch took me to high ground looking across the Pennines in the direction of Lancashire.
I used to radio into our HQ with weather forecasts. Long term forecast usually consisted of "There's something horribly heading this direction!". Short term forecast was "It's HERE!".
Quack!
GtD.

Subject: RE: BS: Long Range Weather Forcasting
From: Bill D
Date: 09 Jan 10 - 03:30 PM

Well, Alan...I have to say I am quite impressed with the general accuracy ... at least in my area. (Eastern US)

They can't do precise details, of course, but ever since satellites and computers, they have been VERY accurate within a week, and helpfully accurate for longer periods.

"Weather forecasters please shut up and let us have a guess at it ourselves.".... No, I think I'll assume they can do better than I can.

Subject: RE: BS: Long Range Weather Forcasting
From: CarolC
Date: 09 Jan 10 - 03:33 PM

I'm finding that my Farmer's Almanac isn't too bad at predicting long range (months ahead). I have no idea how they do it though.

Subject: RE: BS: Long Range Weather Forcasting
From: Q (Frank Staplin)
Date: 09 Jan 10 - 03:35 PM

What forecasts? Please detail.

Subject: RE: BS: Long Range Weather Forcasting
From: Anne Lister
Date: 09 Jan 10 - 03:46 PM

Even the short term forecasting has been very hit and miss in our area. Days recently when it was supposed to be sunny have brought snow, days when snow was forecast turned out sunny and clear. I've pretty much given up thinking they might be reliable.

Subject: RE: BS: Long Range Weather Forcasting
From: Ebbie
Date: 09 Jan 10 - 04:04 PM

Seriously, I can easily understand why the details of a forecast in southeastern Alaska are often not on the money. They are good at finding conditions 'out there' that may come in on such and such a day and stay for such and such number of days but there is a good chance that it won't happen on the stated day.

The problem is that we are fairly far north which has its own set of potentials; we are surrounded by mountains which add their own mix of possibilites, and we are fronted or in some cases surrounded by the Pacific ocean which has its own affect.

We don't obsess about it, frankly.

Subject: RE: BS: Long Range Weather Forcasting
From: Dave Roberts
Date: 09 Jan 10 - 05:19 PM

The boss of the meteorological office has been on BBC News all day today, and his story is that long-term forecasts are still 'experimental', and not used by anyone for planning anything.
Local councils use the short term forecasts to decide whether or not to grit roads and suchlike, and these forecasts are 'a lot more accurate than they were forty years ago'.
He hoped that the long-term forecasts would gradually become more accurate as time went on.

Subject: RE: BS: Long Range Weather Forcasting
From: Alan Day
Date: 09 Jan 10 - 06:24 PM

Better grade of seaweed Dave?
Al
PS Michael Fish is our local weather forecaster, say no more

Subject: RE: BS: Long Range Weather Forcasting
From: GUEST,999
Date: 09 Jan 10 - 10:14 PM

"Few natural phenomena change so radically and unpredictably as the daily weather. Meteorologists had long understood how the atmosphere in a given locality could be capricious and unstable from hour to hour. As one authority explained in 1957, tiny disturbances in the air, far below the limits of observation, could grow into large weather systems within a few days. Nobody could predict these unstable processes, so "there is an effective time barrier beyond which the detailed prediction of a weather system may well remain impossible." Beyond that limit, which might be only a few days, one could only look to statistics, the probability of rain or frost in a given month."

It was weather that prompted a deeper delving into chaos theory. After a few days, predictions go to--well, they're just not reliable, unless they are.

Subject: RE: BS: Long Range Weather Forcasting
From: Dave Roberts
Date: 10 Jan 10 - 03:57 AM

I remember a wonderful radio moment a few years back.
The reporter was delving into BBC shipping forecast areas, and telling us all where North Utsire, South Utsire etc. were, and what they were actually like.
When he got to Valentia Island, off South West Ireland, he asked the weather expert there how the level of visibilty for the area was arrived at.
'Well, we just look out of the window. If we can see the mountain, the visibility is good. If we can't see the mountain, the visibility's poor'
The reporter left a few brief moments of ironic silence, for the listener to take in how quaint, primitive and typically 'Irish' this was.
Then the weather man said, 'can you suggest a better way?'.
The reporter floundered for a while, and then moved on.
A nice moment.

Subject: RE: BS: Long Range Weather Forcasting
From: MGM·Lion
Date: 10 Jan 10 - 04:29 AM

Why am I reminded? ... of story from long-since in my memory of the Indian [I suppose I must say Native American these days, dammit - tho I recall a bit I quoted on another thread about one being interviewed who was asked how they ref'd to themselves & replied, 'Why, "Indians" of course!'], working as an extra in a Western film shoot on location, who gave the production team an accurate forecast every evening of next day's weather so they could always plan the shoot to perfection. One day he refused to predict next day's conditions. Asked why, he replied succinctly, "Radio broke."

Subject: RE: BS: Long Range Weather Forcasting
From: Alan Day
Date: 10 Jan 10 - 04:38 AM

Guest999 the use of statistics are easy for us all to work out. My Father always took his holiday the second week in June and although the rest of the year was rubbish his week was nearly always bright and sunny.So if you take that week of your holiday then statistics show it could be a lovely sunny week this year.
If the Weather forecasters came clean and said that all their long range forecasting was based on statistics then that's fine. Their predictions are taken by most as the likely weather and of course, as you rightly say, there is no way the prediction is accurate.
I suppose the lovely girls that tell us the weather makes it all worth while.
Al

Subject: RE: BS: Long Range Weather Forcasting
From: VirginiaTam
Date: 10 Jan 10 - 05:08 AM

My long range forecast is about 24 hours and is internal. Barometric pressure headache tells me things are about to change. To what is anyone's guess.

And rheumatoid arthritis flare often presages precipitation.

Subject: RE: BS: Long Range Weather Forcasting
From: Dave Roberts
Date: 10 Jan 10 - 05:10 AM

I love the shorthand that older people use for weather forecasts - in this part of the world, anyway.

A forecast of rain, for example, however meticulously presented by the forecaster, is always reported as:

'They've given rain'.

Subject: RE: BS: Long Range Weather Forcasting
From: Alan Day
Date: 10 Jan 10 - 06:41 AM

Sorry Darling I've got a Barometric pressure headache.
Only joking Virginia hope it gets better.
Al X

Subject: RE: BS: Long Range Weather Forcasting
From: Arnie
Date: 10 Jan 10 - 07:54 AM

Yesterday aft, the BBC told us in East Kent that we were due at least 20cm of snow overnight. Not sure how many inches this is (I still work in Imperial) but it sounds a lot. This morning it was obvious that there had been no snow at all overnight - Great! Did we get an apology from the BBC forecaster this morning? She explained that the snow had been heading our way from the continent overnight, but inexplicably never quite made it - no apology of course. Millions of £'s worth of computer equipment and still they get it wrong! I also read today that the Met Office in the UK is standing by it's forecast that this is a mild winter!! Their poor forecasting skills appear to be matched only by their obstinacy.

Subject: RE: BS: Long Range Weather Forcasting
From: Alan Day
Date: 10 Jan 10 - 09:01 AM

Same for Sussex Arnie, it's actually been thawing today. Completely different as you say to the forecast.
Al

Subject: RE: BS: Long Range Weather Forcasting
From: Dave Roberts
Date: 11 Jan 10 - 03:19 AM

Al,

It's thawing here in Cheshire too, despite forecasts from the met. office of sub-zero temperatures ('They've given frost').
It has to be said that even short term forecasting seems to be an inexact science.

Subject: RE: BS: Long Range Weather Forcasting
From: Keith A of Hertford
Date: 11 Jan 10 - 04:12 AM

I heard the met office boss on Saturday too.
He made apocalyptic pronouncements that the present weather would get worse before it got better.
Next day the thaw set in and today most of the country is back to normal.
He must be feeling very silly and hearing a lot of sniggering around the office.

Subject: RE: BS: Long Range Weather Forcasting
From: Alan Day
Date: 11 Jan 10 - 04:53 AM

Being a little more serious regarding Virginia's posting,that she can actually feel the changes in Barometric pressure,I wonder if that is something we all feel,but do not necessarily recognise.Certainly I have heard of others suffering more with Arthritis when there is a change in the weather, but I wonder if that is more down to temperature changes.
Al

Subject: RE: BS: Long Range Weather Forcasting
From: GUEST,banjoman
Date: 11 Jan 10 - 09:53 AM

In the 1960's I worked in the Met Office and since have kept up an interest in the weather forecasts. It was obvious then, and still is, that moost of the general public hear what they want to hear in those forecasts. This situation is not helped by silly headlines in the press. Yes, weather forecasting is an inexact science and relies heavily on interpretation of observed phenonemna and local topography. It would probably benefit everyone if some thought were given to educating people into listening properly.
Its also worth mentioning that lots of the old wives tales (red sky at night) do have a lot of credence in science. (explanations if requested)

Subject: RE: BS: Long Range Weather Forcasting
From: Liz the Squeak
Date: 11 Jan 10 - 10:08 AM

This is Britain... the only forecast you need is this:

If you're wet, it's raining. If you're not wet, it's going to rain soon.

As Billy Connolly put it - there's no such thing as bad weather, just the wrong clothing. I believe he was prancing about the Antartic continent in the nuddy at the time.

LTS

Subject: RE: BS: Long Range Weather Forcasting
From: Bee-dubya-ell
Date: 11 Jan 10 - 11:29 AM

I'm of the opinion that the accuracy of a weather forecast decays at a rate of about 10% per day. In other words, the forecast for today is probably going to be close to 100% accurate, but today's forecast for tommorow is only around 90% accurate. Then the forecast for the day after tomorrow is only 80% accurate, etc. By the time you get more than three or four days out, there's so much room for error that making plans based on weather prediction is pointless. So, if you're planning a five-day trip and weather.com says it's going to be sunny and warm the entire time, pack a jacket and umbrella anyway.

Subject: RE: BS: Long Range Weather Forcasting
From: Alan Day
Date: 11 Jan 10 - 12:04 PM

Is it the TV Weather forecasters that are not listening properly Banjoman because they inform me of what the weather is going to be like with their little charts? Snow flakes, rain or sun pictures (forgotten what that looks like)Wind Speed, Temperature details across the country, how can that be misread?
Al

Subject: RE: BS: Long Range Weather Forcasting
From: Dave Roberts
Date: 11 Jan 10 - 12:23 PM

Ah yes. So it's all our fault. Thought so. It always is.