BS: Middle East Unrest

Subject: BS: Middle East Unrest
From: Keith A of Hertford
Date: 28 Jan 11 - 03:42 AM

Unrest in Tunisia, Egypt, Yemen, Jordan, Algeria.
Not about Israel, the West, Unbelievers etc.
They want a more modern (western?) society.
More democracy and freedoms (speech, association, etc.).
All the thing that both Islamic and liberal extremists have told us they do not want.
What is going on?

Subject: RE: BS: Middle East Unrest
From: Ed T
Date: 28 Jan 11 - 05:23 AM

They want...More democracy and freedoms (speech, association, etc.).
It may be more complex than that, behind the scenes?

Subject: RE: BS: Middle East Unrest
From: Arnie
Date: 28 Jan 11 - 05:48 AM

All of these countries have a burgeoning youth population with many graduates. Unfortunately there are just not enough jobs to employ these young people and in the past many have moved abroad for work. As the economic recession bites, foreign job markets are closed to these workers and they are stuck at home with no money and no job prospects. They then see the ruling classes living a life of luxury and rewarding their family and cronies with lucrative mining/oil/hotel/airline etc. contracts and generally living off the fat of the land with their villas and yachts whilst doing little to alleviate the unemployment and poverty of the masses. All it needed was a spark to light this tinderbox and that has now been provided by the Tunisians.

Subject: RE: BS: Middle East Unrest
From: Lox
Date: 28 Jan 11 - 05:52 AM

If generalizations about the political culture in these countries are proving to be inaccurate, then that is no surprise to me.

Subject: RE: BS: Middle East Unrest
From: Les in Chorlton
Date: 28 Jan 11 - 08:52 AM

Am I being too optimistic in thinking these attempts at regime change will be more succesful than Blair and Bush in Iraq?

L in C#

Subject: RE: BS: Middle East Unrest
From: Don(Wyziwyg)T
Date: 28 Jan 11 - 09:21 AM

Regarding the title of the thread, Tunisia and Algeria are hardly Middle East countries, being in Northwest Africa. Even Egypt is on the margin of that area.

Call me pedantic................

Don T.

Subject: RE: BS: Middle East Unrest
From: pdq
Date: 28 Jan 11 - 11:37 AM

I have posted this map several times before, but perhaps some folks here have not seen it:

                                                                                     http://www.arabbay.com/arabmap.htm

Subject: RE: BS: Middle East Unrest
From: bobad
Date: 28 Jan 11 - 01:49 PM

Dramatic videos of protesters battling police in Egypt today: http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2011/01/video-protesters-clash-police-egypt/

Subject: RE: BS: Middle East Unrest
From: Don(Wyziwyg)T
Date: 28 Jan 11 - 03:11 PM

Is it your contention then, pdq, that the "Middle East" is synonymous with "The Arab World"?

A swift look at the bigger picture shows most of Algeria, and all of Morocco and Mauretania actually West of the UK, and all Tunisia and most of Libya due South of Western Europe.

As I understand it the "Middle East" usually refers to those countries in the area of the old Persian Empire, bounded East to West by Pakistan (in fact all the stans) and Egypt, and North to South by Turkey and the Arabian Gulf.

The Arab World is a considerably larger expanse, and I see considerable cultural difference between the Middle East part and the Western extremities.

Of course, if those Western countries are officially part of what the Foreign Office designates as "The Middle East" then I am obviously misinformed.

Does anybody here know whether this is the case?

Don T.

Subject: RE: BS: Middle East Unrest
From: GUEST,999
Date: 28 Jan 11 - 03:24 PM

Don, I googled    countries of the middle east

This is what came up:

Middle East Map, Map of Middle East, Turkey, Iraq, Dubai Map ...


Description

The Middle East (or West Asia) sits where Africa, Asia and Europe meet. The countries of the Middle East are all part of Asia, but for clarity reasons we geographically show them here as a separate landmass.

Opinions vary as to what countries make up the modern definition of the Middle East. Historically, Armenia and Azerbaijan have been long associated with the Middle East, but in recent years, some sources now consider them to be more closely aligned with Europe based on their modern economic and political trends. We have moved in that direction, and the same applies for the island country of Cyprus, as it does for Georgia, the former Russian republic.

The African country of Egypt is still thought (by some) to be in the Middle East, as well as the northern African countries that border the Mediterranean Sea.

Here we attempt to show the modern definition of the Middle East, but in world of geography, there are often many answers or (personal or political opinions) to what appears to be a simple question.

Subject: RE: BS: Middle East Unrest
From: GUEST,ifor
Date: 28 Jan 11 - 04:05 PM

I can't wait for Mubarak and his gang to fly off to Saudi Arabia.

I believe it is neo liberal politics which lie at the heart of the popular revolutions which have broken out.

For decades a tiny minority backed by the USA and other western governments, have robbed, exploited, pauperised and terrorised the working class and peasant populations of Egypt, Tunisia and much of the region.

Now they are getting their comeuppance!

The road to the liberation of Gaza, Jerusalem and the West Bank of occupied Palestine runs through the Arab Street.
Ifor

Subject: RE: BS: Middle East Unrest
From: GUEST,999
Date: 28 Jan 11 - 04:20 PM

Don your question prompted me to do a search for the countries of North America. Wow!

Subject: RE: BS: Middle East Unrest
From: Don(Wyziwyg)T
Date: 28 Jan 11 - 05:20 PM

Unbe-bloody-lievable isn't it?

Don T.

Subject: RE: BS: Middle East Unrest
From: GUEST,999
Date: 28 Jan 11 - 05:33 PM

Yeah.

Hey, great to see you posting.

Subject: RE: BS: Middle East Unrest
From: Bobert
Date: 28 Jan 11 - 05:39 PM

This is all about a lack of "opportunity" and not much else... I mean, why have educated people if there are no jobs for them... We have the same problem here in the US and we, like the countries that are coming apart, have major income disparity...

I hope that anti-union Boss Hog is paying close attention... This ***can*** and will occur in the US if we don't correct the income imbalance..

B~

Subject: RE: BS: Middle East Unrest
From: Ed T
Date: 28 Jan 11 - 06:11 PM

I would not necessarily count on " more democracy and freedoms" There are many forces in play when dissent shows its face, especially in the middle east.

BTW, oil and gold prices are already showing signs of a rise-directly related to these actions.

Subject: RE: BS: Middle East Unrest
From: Bobert
Date: 28 Jan 11 - 06:29 PM

Reasonable people are the same everywhere... They just want a decent job so they can support their families... Is that asking too much... And if democracy come with it then fine... Not alot of democracy in Kuwait but everyone seems perfectly happy because they are have decent paying jobs and that is really the crux of all of this...

We have a world wide problem of super rich and everyone else scrambling for crumbs...

B~

Subject: RE: BS: Middle East Unrest
From: Ed T
Date: 28 Jan 11 - 06:32 PM

""We have a world wide problem of super rich and everyone else scrambling for crumbs""

And, it exists under many forms of government, not only democracy.

Subject: RE: BS: Middle East Unrest
From: Q (Frank Staplin)
Date: 28 Jan 11 - 08:19 PM

Basic foods (rice, wheat, corn, etc.) up 1/3 in price in the last few months and more than that if one tacks on a few years. Fuel for cooking and transportation up similarly.
Few jobs for a growing young population, out of work.
These are the driving factors.
Of course more freedoms would be nice but a full stomach comes first.

Keith A. may be deficient in geographical knowledge, but will some of the Middle East follow in the months to come?

Subject: RE: BS: Middle East Unrest
From: Bobert
Date: 28 Jan 11 - 08:35 PM

Well said, Q...

Subject: RE: BS: Middle East Unrest
From: GUEST,Guest from Sanity
Date: 29 Jan 11 - 02:27 AM

Don T: "..."Call me pedantic................"

Ok...You're pedantic!
Happy now?

GfS

Subject: RE: BS: Middle East Unrest
From: Don(Wyziwyg)T
Date: 29 Jan 11 - 08:07 AM

Cogent and pertinent comment as usual.....NOT!

Still on form GfS.

Don T.

Subject: RE: BS: Middle East Unrest
From: Don(Wyziwyg)T
Date: 29 Jan 11 - 08:09 AM

""Hey, great to see you posting.""

Thanks mate.

Itll take a lot more than a heart attack to shut me up.

Don T.

Subject: RE: BS: Middle East Unrest
From: Keith A of Hertford
Date: 29 Jan 11 - 09:58 AM

We have seen very little criticism of these clearly hated regimes on Mudcat, compared with, for example, Israel.

Subject: RE: BS: Middle East Unrest
From: GUEST,Wolfgang momentarily without cookie
Date: 29 Jan 11 - 11:44 AM

most of Algeria, and all of Morocco and Mauretania actually West of the UK (Don)

All three statements are simply wrong as a swift look at the bigger picture shows.

As for "Middle East", the traditional definition only includes Egypt (of the African countries, the "G8 definition of the Greater Middle East" includes all of Arab North Africa.

Don, a hint: the meridian lines in your atlas may be curved. so if you take a ruler parallel to the side of the atlas to determine "West of" you may come to a wrong conclusion.

Wolfgang (who once has claimed in Mudcat that the Faroes are West of Ireland and had to be corrected by McGrath)

Subject: RE: BS: Middle East Unrest
From: GUEST,Guest from Sanity
Date: 29 Jan 11 - 01:43 PM

Hats off to you Keith, you nailed it!..also, notice how few posts on this thread, as compared to the more trivial topics!..and yet, this is HUGE!
Small things amuse small minds.

GfS

Subject: RE: BS: Middle East Unrest
From: SINSULL
Date: 29 Jan 11 - 02:08 PM

I have been toying with an idea - what if the internet allowed impoverished people all over the world to unite and force a fairer distribution of wealth and resources?
Fifty years ago, I would have laughed at the concept. Now, poverty doesn't necessarily mean illiteracy. Put poverty, literacy, and the ability to communicate together and...
The world would turn upside down, at least for a while. I am not suggesting that this is a goal I would pursue just musing over the possibility.
We here in the US would probably lose the most. We have had it for so long.
Mary

Subject: RE: BS: Middle East Unrest
From: Keith A of Hertford
Date: 29 Jan 11 - 02:09 PM

And if you discount the anoraks pondering exact geo-political definitions, even fewer!

Subject: RE: BS: Middle East Unrest
From: bobad
Date: 29 Jan 11 - 05:51 PM

It appears that the unrest is spreading to Algeria http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2011/01/thousands-algeria-protest-march-organisers/ and Jordan http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2011/01/jordanians-rally-corruption-poverty/.

Subject: RE: BS: Middle East Unrest
From: Little Hawk
Date: 29 Jan 11 - 06:51 PM

I'd been wondering when this was going to happen, and now it is finally happening. You can only keep the lid on the pressure cooker just so long. I think the Muslim world is about ready for the sort of massive social and political changes that were seen in the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact starting in 1989.

Subject: RE: BS: Middle East Unrest
From: MarkS
Date: 29 Jan 11 - 09:41 PM

Egypt and Yemen on opposite ends of the Suez, which passes most of the Saudi oil going to Europe. Just speculating, but wonder what would happen to energy prices in Europe in the event Egypt and Yemen fall and are taken over by the Muslim Brotherhood, who appear to be waiting in the wings with Iranian help.

Subject: RE: BS: Middle East Unrest
From: J-boy
Date: 29 Jan 11 - 10:54 PM

Unrest in the Middle East? What is the world coming to?

Subject: RE: BS: Middle East Unrest
From: GUEST,Guest from Sanity
Date: 30 Jan 11 - 12:34 AM

From another friend and a guy I mixed sound for in Santa Fe. Listen closer!


How things just don't change...except the names.....

Regards,

GfS

Subject: RE: BS: Middle East Unrest
From: J-boy
Date: 30 Jan 11 - 01:11 AM

Whoa! That is some heavy shit man. I won't get much sleep tonight. Great song and video.

Subject: RE: BS: Middle East Unrest
From: John on the Sunset Coast
Date: 30 Jan 11 - 02:26 AM

Let me try to clarify what is the Middle East as this was my specialty as a history major many, many moons ago (575 and counting).

Historically the Middle or Near East has been the area between the Persian gulf and the Mediterranean Sea, that is modern day Iran and Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, Israel, and whatever will be Palestine; also Saudi Arabia, Yemen, and the Emirates. Additionally, part of Armenia and Eastern Turkey are generally included. (Western Turkey was largely influenced by Greece in ancient times...Troy, Lydia, Phrygia, et.al.) Egypt was generally considered apart from the Middle East, though often included, often, when the term Near East is used, owing to its intensive interaction with the Hittites, Syro-Palestine city-states and Assyria.

Northern Africa, except Egypt as noted, has never been considered part of either the Middle or Near East, and I don't think it is even today, notwithstanding the map linked above. That is a map of the Arab League, but is more accurately The Muslim League, as many of those countries are not Arab, and don't have Arabic as the national language. Several of countries are officially "The Islamic Republic of", for instance, Mauritania, which is only only partially Arab. Comoros (or Comoro Islands) is not at all Arab. However, The Arab League calls itself what it calls itself, and I guess that's it's right.

Subject: RE: BS: Middle East Unrest
From: GUEST,John from Kemsing
Date: 30 Jan 11 - 06:46 AM

Any country that plasters its` buildings, monuments, lamposts, walls, etc. with pictures of the "leader", you know it is a "wrongun". If the images of Mubarrak which are being torn down are replaced with those of next lot thaen you also know you have not made any progress.

Subject: RE: BS: Middle East Unrest
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 30 Jan 11 - 08:49 AM

Mubarak's stinking regime has prevailed for the same reason that most other right-wing dictatorships have prevailed. All you have to do is get into bed with the West. They give you money (and don't ask awkward questions about what you do with it) and use their intelligence services to undermine your opponents. What the west desperately needs in the region, and what it has bought for itself with Egypt, is a large, compliant, populous Arab state that will not oppose Israel. Believe me, there is no appetite in the west for regime change in Egypt. Mubarak is a friend of the west and it doesn't matter what else he does as far as we're concerned. You won't be hearing calls from western leaders for free and fair elections, just simpering pleas for there to be no violence on the part of the regime. When Dubya called for freedom and democracy he only meant in states that were a bit unfriendly. He didn't call for it in Saudi Arabia who are such good economic allies or in Iraq when we were arming Saddam to the teeth against Iran even when we knew he was gassing Kurds. Egypt is just another sorry upshot of inept and wrong-headed western foreign policy. I dread to think what will happen there if there's a political vacuum once Mubarak goes. I don't see a saviour on the horizon.

Subject: RE: BS: Middle East Unrest
From: Keith A of Hertford
Date: 30 Jan 11 - 09:20 AM

(CNN) -- Several Western powers banded together Saturday in urging Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak to do all he can to prevent bloodshed and speedily fulfill his promises of reform.

The heads of England, France and Germany joined their counterpart in the United States on Saturday in calling on Egypt's leader to institute substantive policy changes in short order as well as new, open elections.

Subject: RE: BS: Middle East Unrest
From: GUEST,999
Date: 30 Jan 11 - 09:52 AM

Interesting that the internet was closed and so were cell phones. Kinda gives a guy some stuff to think about.

Couldn`t happen here though.

Subject: RE: BS: Middle East Unrest
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 30 Jan 11 - 10:04 AM

There isn't a "head of England." Did any of these heads explain why they have waited until serious trouble welled up before making their "calls?" Why they've sat out the Sadat/Mubarak decades without making such calls? Did they say anything about sanctions if democracy wasn't forthcoming? You know damn well that what they want is for there to be no trouble in Egypt. Preferably, infinitely preferably, under Mubarak.

Subject: RE: BS: Middle East Unrest
From: Keith A of Hertford
Date: 30 Jan 11 - 10:26 AM

"You won't be hearing calls from western leaders for free and fair elections, "

Subject: RE: BS: Middle East Unrest
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 30 Jan 11 - 10:46 AM

Point taken, Keith, but you and I both know that democracy in Egypt is way down the list of western priorities. Otherwise we'd have been calling for it for decades instead of letting Sadat and Mubarak get away with corruption and repression for decades and saying next to nothing by way of criticism. As long as the army can quell the uprising and Mubarak can stay at the helm you won't be seeing any western arm-twisting for free and fair elections. They just say what they think they have to be heard saying.

Subject: RE: BS: Middle East Unrest
From: Keith A of Hertford
Date: 30 Jan 11 - 10:54 AM

True Steve.
The regime will most likely fall.
I think the West would truly prefer a democracy to the other very likely possibilities.

Subject: RE: BS: Middle East Unrest
From: John on the Sunset Coast
Date: 30 Jan 11 - 11:16 AM

Last evening the missus and I had dinner at a Lebanese restaurant, and were served by an immigrant from Egypt. He, a Copt, has been in contact with his family in a smallish city in Upper Egypt (the south) near Aswan.

Communications to that area, unlike Cairo, was still open as of 6pm, Los Angeles time while we were eating. His family had not been affected directly by the turmoil in the capitol. While he was very circumspect in his answers to our questions about the current unrest, it was clear that he was not a fan of the current government, but was wary of what would replace the Mubarack regime.

Subject: RE: BS: Middle East Unrest
From: pdq
Date: 30 Jan 11 - 01:32 PM

"You won't be hearing calls from western leaders for free and fair elections, "

Well guess what Hillary Clinton, in her position of U.S. Secretary of State, just demanded of the Mubarak government? Yes, "free and fair elections", as if they have ever had such things in the past..

Subject: RE: BS: Middle East Unrest
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 30 Jan 11 - 02:32 PM

Yes, I acknowledge that, but my point is that it was said in a very pusillanimous manner, she couldn't not say it, and it really isn't the top priority for the west, is it? What Hillary & co. really want to see is all this trouble dying down and normal business to be resumed, no applecarts upset. That way there's one less regime in the region which is going to make a fuss about Israel. Which is what out interference in the region is all about, no?

Subject: RE: BS: Middle East Unrest
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 30 Jan 11 - 02:34 PM

our

Subject: RE: BS: Middle East Unrest
From: Jack the Sailor
Date: 30 Jan 11 - 03:20 PM

A "Christian" on another forum said that only the Jews belong in Israel that the rest were "Arabs" and therefor should go back to Arabia.

Are the Egyptians Arabs? What happened to the people who were there with an ancient culture? Were the Babylonians exterminated? I don't think so. I think they learned Arabic and perhaps intermixed but there are families in those lands long before the Arabs came who are still there.

Calling them "Arab" is like calling everyone who lives in the commonwealth and the United States of America "English" and calling that the English world.

Subject: RE: BS: Middle East Unrest
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 30 Jan 11 - 04:00 PM

You could do worse than look up "Arab." Most of the population of Egypt would appear to fit the bill. It's a good job we don't send everyone back to the places their supposed native ethnicity is to be found. There wouldn't be too many white guys in the US for a start. Anyway, enough of this sidetrack.

Subject: RE: BS: Middle East Unrest
From: Q (Frank Staplin)
Date: 30 Jan 11 - 05:16 PM

MarkS, comment on oil.
The speculators on oil futures have driven the price up to about 99/bbl, last figure I found. We will see what it is Monday when the U.S. and European future speculators are fully into the market. I don't expect the price to keep this spike for long.
Saudi Aramco is exporting about 3.5 million bbl/day.
(Russia temporarily the biggest exporter, but the OPEC quotas keep their exports under control, at least partially).
I don't think the EU-U.S. would allow a closure of the sea routes.
(A lot of thinks here- I lack a crystal ball).

Egypt (as mentioned above by Jack the Sailor) is a heady mix of peoples from farther east, Europe (many Greeks, Romans-Italians, Mediterranean peoples, etc.) and native Egyptians. They are united in business in the cities.
The fellahs in the fields are kept under control by the big produce buyers (will these farmer-serfs join the uprising? -some of the big food buyers have departed with their families, but I think not). Some of Egypt's produce is exported; it is needed in Egypt to help control prices in town and city markets.
The young protesters are being joined by the ordinary business people, an important step if the old regime is to be forced out, as Egyptians hope it will be. So far, the army has moved to grab looters and protect property. Will they stay with Mubarek?

The U.S. provides $1.3 billion yearly to the armed forces. If the U.S> forced Egypt to use future payments for commodities, fuel and other needs of the people, a largely useless military (on the world scene) could be frozen in size.

As also mentioned, the U. S. and EU want stability- their first reaction is to support Mubarek provided he makes sufficient changes to quell the uprising. If that fails, they may support El Baradei, although his party is small at present. I doubt intervention.

The Muslim Brotherhood has been outlawed for some time- I think that the ordinary people are too far modernized in education and liberal ways for Islamists to take control as they seem to have farther east.

Closure of the Aljazeera news broadcasts in Egypt may be a mistake. This broadcast group, in the last few years, is a voice of moderation, with European, North American and Asian staff in addition to Arab (head office, Doha). They provide a good supplement to U.S.-BBC news sources.
Cell phones, etc. seem able to keep the people informed.

Just some of my thoughts; I don't expect anyone to agree.