BS: Shades of Hari Seldon

Subject: BS: Shades of Hari Seldon
From: McGrath of Harlow
Date: 01 Nov 13 - 01:34 PM

Shades of Asimov's Foundation, with Hari Seldon's "psychohistory" predicting the rise and fall of galactic empires...

An article in this week's New Scientist tells about a mathematician in America who's claiming to be achieving the same kind of predictive abilities:

"The mathematics underpinning the rise and fall of empires suggest that the US faces imminent and bloody unrest. How worried should we be?

PETER TURCHIN thinks he can see the future. Unlike the fortune teller you might find at a seaside carnival, he needs no crystal ball. Instead, the tools of his trade are mathematics and testable theories. Armed with these, his goal is nothing less than to revolutionise the study of history, turning it from a mass of anecdotes into a rigorous, predictive science.

Turchin calls his new discipline cliodynamics, after Clio, the classical Greek muse of history, and so far its biggest focus has been the fate of empires. Now Turchin is using patterns he has found underlying their rise and fall to make predictions of political changes to come. His forecast is alarming. If his calculations are correct, the US faces major civil unrest and political violence sometime around the end of this decade."...

And so forth. It's too long to paste here, but it's still available on the New Scientist site for another six days, and no doubt it'll be available somewhere on the net via Google.

Of course predicting future trends isn't new (even aside from the Bible prophecy merchants). Marx did it long ago, and his predictions seem to be working out pretty accurately, but not with the time scale his fans tended to assume, though of course he never went in for any time scale. Turchin interestingly enough does do so, a la Hari Seldon...

Subject: RE: BS: Shades of Hari Seldon
From: GUEST,Musket musing
Date: 01 Nov 13 - 01:49 PM

Interesting... My son said a while ago that he attended a lecture where the speaker reckoned that with the internet, recording of just about everything, databases being interpreted for reason such as the Tesco knowledge of their customers, public health observatory etc, that Asimov's psychohistory concept could become reality in a small way. (We have a few decades at best, Seldon & co had a few millennia.)

This is, in a way, Asmimov's possible move from author to visionary. His contemporary Arthur C Clarke was always thrown in his face for envisaging satellites whereas Asimov's fiction relied on more fantastic concepts. However, his non fiction more than made up for it. When my youngest started putting his physics PhD thesis together, I advised him to read "The Stars in their Courses." It is an excellent example of explaining complicated concepts in lay terms.

Mind you, at the risk of exciting our armchair socialists.... Karl Marx pointed out that free market economics is self defeating, and the rise of multinationals, merging and defeating each other will lead to the same totalitarian state that socialism would give, but without the inferred equity.

Makes you wonder if Asimov, Marx or Adam Smith invented psychohistory!

Subject: RE: BS: Shades of Hari Seldon
From: McGrath of Harlow
Date: 01 Nov 13 - 11:01 PM

It appears that "cliodynamics" is quite a flourishing operation. See here

Strange that it hasn't had more attention in the mainstream media, especially considering the chaotic times we're living in.

I note that the Hari Seldon connection has been commented on a number of times in such coverage as it's received.

Subject: RE: BS: Shades of Hari Seldon
From: GUEST,Shimrod
Date: 02 Nov 13 - 03:58 AM

Recently I read Alan Weisman's book 'The World Without Us'(2007) - a book which explores our relationship to the planet via the thought experiment: what would happen to the Earth if humans disappeared tomorrow?

In the course of the book there's a re-construction, based on archeological evidence, of the collapse of the Central American Maya civilisation. Soon after finishing the book, I read the New Scientist 'cliodynamics' piece referred to above. It seems that if cliodynamics had been around at the time it would have predicted the demise of the Maya with complete accuracy - and what happened to the Maya is happening to western civilisation right now.

Subject: RE: BS: Shades of Hari Seldon
From: McGrath of Harlow
Date: 02 Nov 13 - 06:56 PM

The demise of a transient phenomenon like "Western Civilisation" is hardly on the same scale as the end of the human race. We've been around a lot longer than that, and I have no doubt will be around a lot longer as well.

Subject: RE: BS: Shades of Hari Seldon
From: Don(Wyziwyg)T
Date: 02 Nov 13 - 07:59 PM

""Karl Marx pointed out that free market economics is self defeating, and the rise of multinationals, merging and defeating each other will lead to the same totalitarian state that socialism would give, but without the inferred equity.""

Small but (IMHO) vital correction: without the inferred, but never actually realised, equity.

Which totally destroys Marx's concept of the advantage of communism to any but the privileged ruling class.

No gain to be had, so why change?

It is also important to realise that the corporatism rife in the West, and rapidly growing in the East, is about as far from free market economy as it is possible to get.

There is no place on this planet, of any significance, which has a genuine free market economy, and there is no practical difference to the man in the street between corporate control and state control.

What is needed is to break down these massive multinationals into individual, competing entities, thereby removing the power of monopoly.

We once had a Monopolies Commission (only one?) which came down like a ton of sh..you know what upon companies which controlled too high a percentage of the market and barred any merger or buyout which led to that situation.

We have to remember that the small business is also Capitalist in nature and before most of them were squeezed out of business, they acted as a brake on the greed of the cartels.

Don T.

Subject: RE: BS: Shades of Hari Seldon
From: McGrath of Harlow
Date: 02 Nov 13 - 08:26 PM

It is also important to realise that the corporatism rife in the West, and rapidly growing in the East, is about as far from free market economy as it is possible to get.

True enough - and at the same time what happened in the USSR and behind the Iron Curtain was about as far from socialism as it is possible to get. And as for China...

In truth a genuinely free market economy and a genuinely socialist society might well amount to much the same thing.

Subject: RE: BS: Shades of Hari Seldon
From: Eldergirl
Date: 02 Nov 13 - 09:18 PM

And it might be possible if only the human tendency towards greed and selfishness didn't keep getting in the way.

Subject: RE: BS: Shades of Hari Seldon
From: GUEST,Musket evolving slowly
Date: 03 Nov 13 - 03:55 AM

Fair point Don. Marx was in some ways proposing rather than prophesysing. ....

I worked for a company back in the 80s who had me visiting Eastern Europe and USSR selling them industrial goods. From the perspective of trade, there was no difference. The only obstacle was access to and use of each other's currency. If western markets had faith in the rouble at the time, the differences between our worlds would have been social and political but never commercial. Whilst no expert on the subject, I do wonder if the totalitarian aspects of fewer larger multinationals is what gives the market their recent slumps? lack of fiscal opportunity?

The concepts in The Foundation series went much further than economic prediction. They could have had me putting a fiver on The Owls poking five goals in yesterday.

Yes! !!!!!!!

Subject: RE: BS: Shades of Hari Seldon
From: GUEST,Shimrod
Date: 03 Nov 13 - 05:16 AM

"there is no practical difference to the man in the street between corporate control and state control."

So then, Don, you believe that things like the rule of law, law and order, a free health service, free education, parks, town planning and restraints upon the destruction of Nature for the sake of profit represent "no practical difference"? Such things represent a f***ing great big difference to this particular "man in the street"!

Subject: RE: BS: Shades of Hari Seldon
From: GUEST,Musket
Date: 03 Nov 13 - 05:58 AM

Think it through Shimrod. Collective ideas such as municipal facilities and comprehensive healthcare are not really anathema to the corporate world. You need a healthy prosperous customer base to thrive. But just like politics, you need winners and losers to keep your place.

State control is no different to market control. It was politicians not businesses that created the north south divide in The UK. It was councils that created concrete edifices by their consent, it is government who place restrictions on the people by pandering to the city...

You can't blame a puppy for shitting on the carpet. The only difference I see is the layer of inferred consent in the state model. In some ways, that makes it even more dishonest.

Where is the Lloyd George pension pioneer? Where is the Wilson open university idea? Where is Bevan when you need him? Which Whitehall office is Beveridge working in? Is a younger Enoch Powell pushing a healthcare infrastructure? (Credit where credit is due.). Where is the political vision?

Replaced by sound bite.

The markets prefer it that way.




Sorry. This should be a great thread looking at prediction theory and the mythical visioning of Asimov with his fictional hero.

Subject: RE: BS: Shades of Hari Seldon
From: GUEST,Shimrod
Date: 03 Nov 13 - 06:51 AM

"Where is the political vision?"

It was usurped and corrupted by the evil, pernicious, neo-liberal free market model!

Subject: RE: BS: Shades of Hari Seldon
From: GUEST,Shimrod
Date: 03 Nov 13 - 07:05 AM

And, of course, the emphasis on the free market has led to the creation of super-rich elites and growing inequality in our societies. And it's the existence of such elites, and their unstoppable rise, which, according to cliodynamics (and, interestingly, Alan Weisman in the book I cited above), leads to societal collapse. So I don't think we have strayed off topic.

Subject: RE: BS: Shades of Hari Seldon
From: GUEST,Musket
Date: 03 Nov 13 - 07:40 AM

Ah but Asimov was an American of Russian Jewish descent.... I doubt his models had any overtly political as we see it motives. Mind you, he was obsessed with overpopulation, which caused the eventual " wipe it out and start again" origins of his earth origin based books.

The demise of parochial politics, on the understanding you are influenced by global rather than local decisions, can be both commercial and political. The internet for instance has changed the world, and it is up to us to realise and adapt. How did the internet evolve so fast?

Porn.



Discuss.

Subject: RE: BS: Shades of Hari Seldon
From: McGrath of Harlow
Date: 03 Nov 13 - 01:42 PM

Interestingly enough Peter Turchin is Russian by birth, and was 20 before he moved to America in 1977, with his father Valentin, who while a dissident appears to have been a post-marxist rather than an anti-marxist, and that would seem to be true of Peter's thinking as well.

Subject: RE: BS: Shades of Hari Seldon
From: Bill D
Date: 03 Nov 13 - 01:44 PM

Discuss? Porn? Gee... it's obvious that, like the Polaroid camera, one of the first wide uses of the WWW was for porn. First to sell it, then to trade it, then to find ways to get it for free. Porn in its many aspects has been a staple since Pompeii and before.
As soon as early critics began to look for ways to ban and/or limit it, others were making sure there was NO way to do much about it. I'm sure Hari Seldon would have integrated THAT given into his equations. That was easy - the idea of predicting mass behavior of enormous populations is quite another thing.... like weather models, it's good for a few days, moderate for a few weeks.... and only vaguely useful for a few years.
We CAN do the math about many things like population growth & resources and show certain long-term patterns, but Seldon (as Asimov's surrogate) suggested the possibility of predicting human response to patterns... which is a nice Sci-Fi plot but almost laughable given the immense # of variables. One of humans' most defining characteristics is the ability to look at obvious facts and lie to themselves about them. (Heinlein's plot to have a big computer guide us rationally had a certain lure..but humans would always know where the power switch was)

So... I don't need Seldon to predict that porn will always be with us, in more teeny sub-categories than most of us can comprehend... but I dare him to tell us how the French will vote on immigration in 2255.

Subject: RE: BS: Shades of Hari Seldon
From: McGrath of Harlow
Date: 03 Nov 13 - 01:49 PM

But then, Bill, if he did make a detailed prediction, I'd dare you to tell us whether he was right or wrong.

Subject: RE: BS: Shades of Hari Seldon
From: Nigel Parsons
Date: 03 Nov 13 - 02:29 PM

Shimrod:
In the course of the book there's a re-construction, based on archaeological evidence, of the collapse of the Central American Maya civilisation. Soon after finishing the book, I read the New Scientist 'cliodynamics' piece referred to above. It seems that if cliodynamics had been around at the time it would have predicted the demise of the Maya with complete accuracy - and what happened to the Maya is happening to western civilisation right now.
Yes it's easy to make up a set of rules and state, confidently, "If we'd known these rules before we could have accurately predicted A,B or C" (It's called hindsight)
The so-called climate scientists have been very good about explaining why there had been past rises in temperature, and people believed them, and started following their advice.
Their success rate with predictions since the IPCC has been set up has been rather lower.

Subject: RE: BS: Shades of Hari Seldon
From: Bill D
Date: 03 Nov 13 - 02:32 PM

You mean... I... I won't be able to kibitz and brag? *gasp* I do intend to live that long. Me & Lazurus Long....

(Of course, I can offer MY predictions of right & wrong, and YOU can't be sure. ☺ )

Subject: RE: BS: Shades of Hari Seldon
From: Bill D
Date: 03 Nov 13 - 02:36 PM

I do love predictions which are merely counterfactual conditionals

Subject: RE: BS: Shades of Hari Seldon
From: Don(Wyziwyg)T
Date: 03 Nov 13 - 03:05 PM

""It was usurped and corrupted by the evil, pernicious, neo-liberal free market model!""

Not free market, Corporatism, as I said. The two are mutually exclusive!

A politician can present them as the same, but that doesn't make it so.

One free market was Farmers A, B and C getting together and setting an echange value for Farmer A's eggs milk and cheese, Farmer B's cabbages and potatoes and Farmer C's beef, mutton and pork.

Even during the rise of industialisation, the majority of capitalists were ordinary folk in cottage industries.

So the concept bears no resemblance to the way that Corporatism works, which is the building of corporate empires to drive out the small business capitalist, and control whole markets and eventually whole nations.

Don T.

Subject: RE: BS: Shades of Hari Seldon
From: McGrath of Harlow
Date: 03 Nov 13 - 03:30 PM

And of course the kind of authentic free market Don indicates there would be completely consistent with a genuine socialist society. In fact it would be a key element.

Subject: RE: BS: Shades of Hari Seldon
From: Don(Wyziwyg)T
Date: 03 Nov 13 - 04:47 PM

Which is why we should know what we are fighting against, and stop blaming free market ideology, to focus on the real enemies, state control and corporate control.

At that point, geuine capitalism and genuine socialism become indistinguishable, but inevitably some will seek to improve their share, and here we go again.

Abolish greed! It is the one single way to win.

BUT HOW?

Don T.

Subject: RE: BS: Shades of Hari Seldon
From: Don(Wyziwyg)T
Date: 03 Nov 13 - 04:53 PM

With respect to Hari Seldon, prediction falls apart inevitably, when applied to humans en masse.

And ancient predictors such as Nostradamus only get it right when their vague projections and certain coincidental events are perceived as connected using 20/20 hindsight.

Don T.

Subject: RE: BS: Shades of Hari Seldon
From: Amos
Date: 03 Nov 13 - 04:56 PM

As for the good Dr Asimov, his capacity for prediction was well demonstrated in the I, Robot and other series, including the ingenious Laws of Robotics; they are slower in coming into full realization than satellites because of the burden of refining artificial intelligence in a world where the mind of the inventors is itself so poorly understood. But Siri, dancing robots with flesh faces and batting eyelashes, and even robotic telephone menus are all indications of where we are going with the development of automatoc servants. I'd love to have one. Feed it electrons and tell it what to do and it will be your help-meet forever. And because of the density of information storage you can have a secretary, an accountant, and a log-splitting handyman and luggage carrier all in one!

I suppose we'll have to buy airline seats for them, though, unless they also make them able to fold up into a carry-on.

Subject: RE: BS: Shades of Hari Seldon
From: Nigel Parsons
Date: 03 Nov 13 - 08:07 PM

And in discussing Hari Seldon, let us not forget that he was not a real person.
Okay, I know some of the readers on here have commented on the fact that he was a (fictitious) creation of Isaac Asimov (may his name be praised).
But... when Asimov wrote new books to combine the 'Federation' stories with the 'Robot' stories, it became clear that Hari Seldon was actually a robot. When, years after his (Hari Seldon's) 'death' he appeared as a recording/projection, it was the original (robot) Hari Seldon appearing to reinforce his predictions (or make comments that would guide humanity onto the 'correct' path)

Cheers, Nigel (avowed Sci-Fi nut)
The 'Worldcon' returns to the UK next year.   HURRAH!

Subject: RE: BS: Shades of Hari Seldon
From: McGrath of Harlow
Date: 03 Nov 13 - 08:35 PM

You suggesting that Asimov"s robots aren't "real persons", NIgel

True enough we may have robots around, but no sign of the Laws of Robotics to protect us from them. The killer robots of the Terminator movies appear far more likely. In fact, what with drones and suchlike they're almost here.

Subject: RE: BS: Shades of Hari Seldon
From: Nigel Parsons
Date: 03 Nov 13 - 08:43 PM

Ah, but following Asimov, the "Three Laws" may still apply even with the US drones. It all comes down to what you describe as 'human' when you state:
"A robot may no harm a human, nor, through inaction, allow a human to come to harm."
One of the books (Possibly 'Robots of Dawn') made it clear that visitors from Earth were not considered 'human', so outside the protection of the three laws.

Subject: RE: BS: Shades of Hari Seldon
From: Nigel Parsons
Date: 03 Nov 13 - 09:14 PM

Correction:
"A robot may not harm a human, nor, through inaction, allow a human to come to harm."

Subject: RE: BS: Shades of Hari Seldon
From: GUEST,Musket evolving slowly
Date: 04 Nov 13 - 01:20 AM

He hinted that he could be Daniel Oliver, but that contradicts the two working for the same Emperor in the same book.

Good story telling but epidemiology as a concept predates him. Predictions based on study of the past and patterns therein form the basis of even small term planning. The healthcare budgeting that I am on the periphery of is fascinating for that very reason. When it is said there isn't enough cash for the promises of political endeavour, it tends to be true. .....

Subject: RE: BS: Shades of Hari Seldon
From: GUEST,Shimrod
Date: 04 Nov 13 - 04:16 AM

"Yes it's easy to make up a set of rules and state, confidently, "If we'd known these rules before we could have accurately predicted A,B or C" (It's called hindsight)"

You're absolutely right, of course, Nigel. But all that I was really doing was pointing to, what was for me, a remarkable coincidence: the description of the collapse of the Maya civilisation in the book and the New Scientist article, about a mathematical model for predicting the rise and fall of civilisations, that I read a couple of days after finishing the book.

Subject: RE: BS: Shades of Hari Seldon
From: Don(Wyziwyg)T
Date: 04 Nov 13 - 06:02 AM

It should be noted that Isaac Asimov himself was at pains to point out that the "Three Laws of Robotics" were in fact inadequate, and could all be circumvented in various ways.

It was a fascinating and intriguing conundrum, as readers of "I Robot" and "The Rest of the Robots" will know.

I tried to work out what extra component would make the elegantly constructed three laws unbreakable, and couldn't find any answer to it.

As far as I know, Asimov himself didn't publish any adjustment for that purpose.

Don T.

Subject: RE: BS: Shades of Hari Seldon
From: Nigel Parsons
Date: 04 Nov 13 - 08:09 AM

My memories don't quite match that.
The rules were sufficient (Until R.Daneel needed to formalise the 'zeroth law' to allow him to harm individuals in order to further the good of humanity)
Where Asimov showed how a robot could still harm a human it was in circumstances where engineers building the robots had restricted the 'first law' to just "A robot may not harm a human". This allowed for a robot to (for example) drop a rock on a human, knowing that the robot could catch the rock before any harm was done. So the robot wasn't acting to harm the human. However, without the remaining part of the first law (nor through inaction allow a human to come to harm) the robot could then allow the rock to harm the human without taking preventive action.
The three full laws were sufficient.

It's time I dug out my copies of all these & re-read. (or get them for the e-book)
Unfortunately most searches for "I, Robot" get the novelisation of the Will Smith film, rather than the original collection of short stories.

Subject: RE: BS: Shades of Hari Seldon
From: McGrath of Harlow
Date: 04 Nov 13 - 05:48 PM

In fact most, if not all, of the Robot stories were about ways of getting round the laws. That was the point. A bit like locked room mysteries in that way. Laying down impossible restrictions, and then find a way to dodge them.

Subject: RE: BS: Shades of Hari Seldon
From: Bill D
Date: 04 Nov 13 - 06:21 PM

"... find a way to dodge them."


Part of the Meaning of Life (sometimes called 'rationalization')

Subject: RE: BS: Shades of Hari Seldon
From: McGrath of Harlow
Date: 06 Nov 13 - 09:36 PM

Of course if you accept some version of the Many Universes Interpretation all the predictions are true anyway.

Subject: RE: BS: Shades of Hari Seldon
From: Don(Wyziwyg)T
Date: 07 Nov 13 - 08:44 AM

""My memories don't quite match that.
The rules were sufficient (Until R.Daneel needed to formalise the 'zeroth law' to allow him to harm individuals in order to further the good of humanity)""

Memory is always a bit suspect, when trying to recall books read in a pretty distant childhood, but there was a female scientist Doctor Susan?........?, who wasn't convinced and specialised in explaining how and why the laws were inadequate.

I too would like to read the original stories again, but I would guess that they have been out of print for many years.

Don T.

Subject: RE: BS: Shades of Hari Seldon
From: GUEST,Musket sans the zeroeth law
Date: 07 Nov 13 - 10:12 AM

Susan Calvin.

From earth.

Born I think 1984. I Robot bring her introduction.

Subject: RE: BS: Shades of Hari Seldon
From: McGrath of Harlow
Date: 07 Nov 13 - 10:17 AM

You can get anything through the Internet, Don . In this case aMazon have the book of collected asimov Robot stories. And Here is a page listing the m all.

Subject: RE: BS: Shades of Hari Seldon
From: GUEST,Musket remembering
Date: 07 Nov 13 - 12:27 PM

My youngest gave me a voucher to download the Foundation series onto my Kindle.

Whilst I have a few other books I wish to get through first, I am looking forward to reacquainting myself with them. The set as I have them does all the tying together, so starts with I Robot, through the a Robots of Dawn etc and to a Prelude to Foundation onwards. Also includes a novel written in the Foundation genre by someone after Asimov died. Looking forward to that as it will be for the first time.

Amazing that I read them 35 years ago yet can recall so much with what I hope is clarity.

Get them and enjoy them Don.

Subject: RE: BS: Shades of Hari Seldon
From: McGrath of Harlow
Date: 07 Nov 13 - 01:00 PM

I don't really count the later ones as really part of Foundation. A bit like the Star Trek prequels in that way.

Subject: RE: BS: Shades of Hari Seldon
From: Nigel Parsons
Date: 07 Nov 13 - 05:00 PM

I don't really think you can count as prequels to the Foundation trilogy books set after it, such as "Foundation & Earth" as the combined Foundation/Robot series doesn't seem to allow for time travel.

Subject: RE: BS: Shades of Hari Seldon
From: McGrath of Harlow
Date: 07 Nov 13 - 06:20 PM

I didn't mean they were prequels, just that they aren't part of the trilogy, and weren't written in the same period of Asimov. Robots came out of a later phase entirely.

But the thing that set me to starting this thread is how far can prediction be accurate, and to what extent. For example, I think it quite conceivable that it would have been possible a couple of generations before to predict something like the Great. War, but not the circumstances and the line-up.

It would be interesting to have an experiment in which people totally ignorant of some period of history, but with access to a mass of information, were set to make predictions about how events "would" unroll, and measure the results against what actually happened. Chiinese history a thousand years ago, perhaps...

Subject: RE: BS: Shades of Hari Seldon
From: GUEST,Musket evolving slowly
Date: 08 Nov 13 - 01:01 AM

I suppose I shall read and make my own mind up.

As I recall, Foundation and Earth was the most exciting for me. I think, though I could be wrong, that I read it in isolation, that is to say a few years after the others.

Subject: RE: BS: Shades of Hari Seldon
From: Nigel Parsons
Date: 08 Nov 13 - 06:17 AM

Of course, going back to the original premise: Now Turchin is using patterns he has found underlying their rise and fall to make predictions of political changes to come. His forecast is alarming. If his calculations are correct, the US faces major civil unrest and political violence sometime around the end of this decade."...

Is this just betting on a likely outcome?
In how many of the last 20 decades has the US faced major civil unrest and/or political violence?
What, in the last century would have qualified as either major civil unrest and political violence? WWI, The depression, WWII, The Cold war, Assassination of the president, Vietnam, Korea, 9/11,
Also his wording is suitably vague "around the end of this decade" is that between 2019-2021? or 2016-2024?

I think he's on a safe bet!

Subject: RE: BS: Shades of Hari Seldon
From: Don(Wyziwyg)T
Date: 08 Nov 13 - 07:34 AM

Thank you Kevin, and yes Ian. I'll look 'em up and give 'em another whirl.

Asimov and E.E. "Doc" Smith formed a huge part of my preferred reading for nearly twenty years.

Don T.

Subject: RE: BS: Shades of Hari Seldon
From: Nigel Parsons
Date: 08 Nov 13 - 10:50 AM

Don:
'The Doc' faded a bit in the 'Family D'Alambert' (circus of the galaxy) series. (Admittedly these were a collaboration)
But The 'Skylark' & 'Lensmen' series still stand the test of time.

Subject: RE: BS: Shades of Hari Seldon
From: Don(Wyziwyg)T
Date: 08 Nov 13 - 11:13 AM

Skylark & Lensmen were the ones I read. D'Alambert showed up instantly as something other, and I couln't get into it.

I did like the breadth of his imagination.

Don T.

Subject: RE: BS: Shades of Hari Seldon
From: Nigel Parsons
Date: 08 Nov 13 - 12:44 PM

The 'Family D'Alembert' novels (first one published 1976) share some amazing similarities with Alistair Maclean's 'Circus' (1975)

Could be coincidence, or could be plagarism, but with similar publication dates it could go either way.

Subject: RE: BS: Shades of Hari Seldon
From: Don(Wyziwyg)T
Date: 08 Nov 13 - 08:40 PM

Looking through a list and picking out my favourite authors, I am struck with the sheer volume of time devoted to Sci-Fi over the course of some 60 years of reading, and the realisation that these represent about ten percent of the authors I could have read.

Douglas Adams (1952–2001)
Brian Aldiss (born 1925)
Poul Anderson (1926–2001)
Isaac Asimov (1920–1992)
J. G. Ballard (1930–2009)
Ambrose Bierce (1842–1914?)
James Blish (1921–1975)
Robert Bloch (1917–1994)
Ray Bradbury (1920–2012)
John Brunner (1934–1995)
Algis Budrys (1931–2008)
Karel Čapek (1890–1938)
Arthur C. Clarke (1917–2008)
Hal Clement (1922–2003)
Groff Conklin (1904–1968)
L. Sprague de Camp (1907–2000)
Lester del Rey (1915–1993)
Philip K. Dick (1928–1982)
Howard Fast (1914–2003)
Robert A. Heinlein (1907 - 88)
Frank Herbert (1920 – 86), Dune
Henry Kuttner (1915–1958)
Glen A. Larson (born 1937)
Michael Moorcock (born 1939)
Edgar Allan Poe (1809–1849)
Frederik Pohl (1919-2013)
Carl Sagan (1934–1996)
Robert Sheckley (1928–2005)
Robert Silverberg (born 1935)
Clifford D. Simak (1904–1988)
E. E. Smith (1890–1965)
Theodore Sturgeon (1918–1985)
A. E. van Vogt (1912–2000)
Donald A. Wollheim (1914–1990)
Roger Zelazny (1937–1995)

I find myself wondering how I ever managed to find time to work and raise a family.

Don T.