BS: How accurate are weather forecasts?

Subject: BS: How accurate are weather forecasts?
From: Richard Bridge
Date: 20 May 15 - 11:31 AM

A friend of mine who used to post here before being driven away by a certain homophobe has taken issue with my habit of looking up the weather forecasts as far in advance as possible before festivals and so on that I am planning to go to. His view is that anything other than OFFICIAL (so in the UK, met office) one day forecasts has no greater likelihood of being right than examining chicken entrails.

How close to right is he?

Subject: RE: BS: How accurate are weather forecasts?
From: Bill D
Date: 20 May 15 - 12:35 PM

"How close to right is he?" Not very close...

I do the same... and have weather programs to help. Weather Watcher

There are obvious cases where it's too complex to be absolutely precise about details a week or two ahead, but the general possibilities are getting pretty well predictable. I live in the Eastern US, and there are patterns that tell me I had BETTER take rain gear. In fact, out local festival on May 30-31 is looking hot and possibly a bit rainy in the afternoons http://www.weather.com/weather/tenday/l/Silver+Spring+MD+20902:4:US

You have the Atlantic ocean to deal with...but satellites + computers can predict all but local details.

Subject: RE: BS: How accurate are weather forecasts?
From: GUEST,Ian
Date: 20 May 15 - 03:25 PM

I get really annoyed by weather forecasters telling us what the weather has been like. I can see that for myself!

Subject: RE: BS: How accurate are weather forecasts?
From: Richard Bridge
Date: 20 May 15 - 03:33 PM

What's that weather watcher thing? It seems to be a bulletin board, not a forecaster...

Subject: RE: BS: How accurate are weather forecasts?
From: GUEST,#
Date: 20 May 15 - 05:05 PM

Depends on the announcer I guess.

Subject: RE: BS: How accurate are weather forecasts?
From: Bill D
Date: 20 May 15 - 05:44 PM

Sorry...that is only the forum... the program is here

(I have an old freeware version, as well as testing the newer paid version) It only does US weather right now, I think. There seem to be legal restrictions on where Weather Watcher can get reports.

The search says that http://www.meteoalarm.eu/ does European weather. also http://www.wunderground.com/

Subject: RE: BS: How accurate are weather forecasts?
From: Ed T
Date: 20 May 15 - 05:53 PM

It likely depends on a number of factors, including:
-the professional credentials of the, so called, weather reporter (some "meterologists" are more like weather reporters)
- the season, timing, location and length of the forecast
-knowledge of local waether variables related to broader weather factors (forecasting some locations are just more complex than others).

Subject: RE: BS: How accurate are weather forecasts?
From: GUEST
Date: 20 May 15 - 08:12 PM

Only God can know ahead of time what the weather will be. The National Weather Service can't, as anyone who keeps track of predicted and actual weather can tell you.

But we are made in God's image and we have a natural and healthy desire to be like Him in any way possible. So you should continue reading the weather forecasts and trying to be as close to God as you can.

Subject: RE: BS: How accurate are weather forecasts?
From: Joe Offer
Date: 20 May 15 - 08:21 PM

I live here in Applegate in the Sierra Foothills of California. We ordinarily get about 44 inches of rainfall, while Sacramento (45 minutes away) gets 18. The forecast for Sunday and Monday on my Amazon Echo was for thunderstorms.

Not a drop.

Dang.

-Joe-

Subject: RE: BS: How accurate are weather forecasts?
From: Ed T
Date: 20 May 15 - 08:26 PM

Fortunately, if you have the interest, you can watch much of what is happening in the weather front online, in real time (radar, stream etc). This enables you to add to and fine-tune information from increasingly under-funded government weather agencies.

I recall a neighbour who frequently used his "rosary" to call in good weather fabours. While I don't recall it having much impact, it seemed to make the bloke feel much better about inclement weather and complain less.

Subject: RE: BS: How accurate are weather forecasts?
From: GUEST,Etymologophile
Date: 20 May 15 - 08:39 PM

Well, that's frustrating.

It would make so much more sense that way, with the blue note coming first, meaning a note that sounds sad or off-color or a departure from the norm, and then the expression "playing the blues" coming to be used as a shorthand way of saying playing the blue notes.

And then maybe being confused with the expression "sing the blues," so that people felt compelled to add sad lyrics to what were originally up-tempo instrumental pieces, and then to change the musical style to sound like moaning and whining.

Subject: RE: BS: How accurate are weather forecasts?
From: olddude
Date: 20 May 15 - 08:49 PM

I guess they are better than a baseball bat in the nuts but other than that not much

Subject: RE: BS: How accurate are weather forecasts?
From: Sandra in Sydney
Date: 20 May 15 - 09:33 PM

back in the 70s & 80s I worked in the Australian Bureau of Meteorology library & remember an overseas study that noted forecasts are not wrong as often as folk think they are for 2 reasons.

We don't listen properly & I still miss weather reports on the radio - capital city temperatures are given in a certain order & my attention wanders & returns after the Sydney figures are finished! Today I have 2 bookmarks - Sydney Observations & Sydney Forecast & don't often get rained upon - when I check them out before going out.

Second reason is forecast areas are large & just because your suburb or part of a suburb didn't get rain does not make the forecast wrong.

I also had a great collection of weather cartoons & sayings & kept this one on my wall - THE WEATHERMAN IS RIGHT 80% OF THE TIME, IT'S JUST THE WEATHER THAT'S WRONG. One of my forecaster colleagues said the average was really 84%, dunno what it is now.

sandra

The accuracy of weather forecasts for Melbourne, Australia
weather-climate.com/ForecastAccuracyMelbourne29June2007.pdf by H Stern -

An analysis of the accuracy, and trends in the accuracy, of medium range weather forecasts for Melbourne, Australia, is presented. The analysis shows that skill is evident in forecasts of temperature, rainfall, and qualitative descriptions of expected weather out to
seven days in advance. The analysis also demonstrates the existence of a long-term trend in the accuracy of the forecasts. For example, Day-3 forecasts of minimum temperature in recent years (average error ~ 1.6°C) are as skilful as Day-1 forecasts of minimum temperature were in the 1960s and 1970s, whilst Day-4 forecasts of maximum temperature in recent years (average error ~ 2.0°C) are more skilful than Day-1 forecasts of maximum temperature were in the 1960s and 1970s. It is suggested that this trend may be largely attributed to a combination of:

(a) Enhancements in the description of the atmosphere's initial state, provided by remote sensing and other observational technologies,

(b) Advances in broad scale Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP), and,

(c) Careful succession planning and good organisational management.

Subject: RE: BS: How accurate are weather forecasts?
From: GUEST,#
Date: 20 May 15 - 11:48 PM

Well, one thing we can count on is this: there will be weather regardless what weather services, forecasters or tv personalities have to say about it. My prediction for the Dead Sea area for the next 365 days: Sunny with warm temperatures and no rain. I expect I'll be correct 97% of the time. So, there ya go.

Subject: RE: BS: How accurate are weather forecasts?
From: Ed T
Date: 21 May 15 - 12:00 AM

With all the sunlight, I wonder if plants enjoy all the extra, sexy, photosynthesising near the Dead Sea? 

Subject: RE: BS: How accurate are weather forecasts?
From: Ebbie
Date: 21 May 15 - 12:39 AM

As a rule, Juneau Alaska weather is forecast correctly: "Rain likely". We are in a temperate rain forest, after all.

However, these last two weeks or so have been remarkable. They have forecast brilliant skies and they have been correct. It is supposed to continue for the foreseeable future; Saturday our thermometers should reach 80 degrees! Kind of scary. Our temperatures are more typically in the mid60s-low70s. Any time of year.

Subject: RE: BS: How accurate are weather forecasts?
From: vectis
Date: 21 May 15 - 01:07 AM

When we moved to New Zealand we were told that 90% of forecasts boiled down to 'fine, with showers'. Yup! That works for most of the year but most summers seem to have a dry period to them and fire bans have to be put in place over most of the country from December to February.
On the whole the one and three day forecasts are pretty accurate.

Subject: RE: BS: How accurate are weather forecasts?
From: Musket
Date: 21 May 15 - 02:08 AM

The only thing I do know is that you can predict some geographical regions better than others.

The UK, being comparatively small and with the Gulf Stream one way and the arctic the other, it's not exactly easy.

I use the met office app on my phone but have noticed that my new watch, which gets the "at a glance" weather from Yahoo is about as accurate, even though at home it thinks I am in a town twelve miles away. The met office usually shows different forecasts for there..

Subject: RE: BS: How accurate are weather forecasts?
From: Joe Offer
Date: 21 May 15 - 02:17 AM

Ebbie, your little town of Juneau has several (I count three) very different areas. Do those areas all have the same weather?

-Joe-

Subject: RE: BS: How accurate are weather forecasts?
From: Michael
Date: 21 May 15 - 05:13 AM

When I were a lad I worked with an old gent who had to be asked every morning; 'What's the forecast Bill?' 'Sunshine and showers, in places' was always the reply.

Mike

Subject: RE: BS: How accurate are weather forecasts?
From: Ebbie
Date: 21 May 15 - 11:14 AM

In Juneau our weather depends upon where one stands, Joe O. On the north end of Douglas Island the average rainfall is 96 inches. Downtown - not far away. About 5 miles, as the crow flies, 10 miles as the salmon swims - we have an official 69 inches every year. Out-the-road garners less than 60 inches of rain but appreciably more snow.

Subject: RE: BS: How accurate are weather forecasts?
From: GUEST,leeneia
Date: 21 May 15 - 11:26 AM

Your friend is wrong, Richard. Weather forecasting is more accurate than ever before because of computers and satellites.

That said, most of the energy goes into forecasting things that are dangerous. Meteorologists are more interested in tracking violent storms, flooding and blizzards than in telling you whether there will be ordinary rain a week from now.

If I were going to a festival in the British Isles, I would pack an assortment of clothes so that I could layer things. The further north the festival, the warmer the clothes.

Subject: RE: BS: How accurate are weather forecasts?
From: GUEST,#
Date: 21 May 15 - 12:06 PM

Weather forecasting is no longer a black art. A three day forecast today is more accurate than a one day forecast was in 1980. However, no prediction about weather for a particular square mile of territory can be 100% accurate. I think of the life insurance analogy when I think of weather predictions. We cannot accurately predict when Jane/Joe Doe will die, but with a hundred thousand Jane/Joe Does we can accurately predict when a given percent will die. Things like nuclear explosions throw the prediction out the window, so insurance companies tend to disallow payments for that sort of thing and usually have it written into their policy agreements. Many moons ago a particularly violent and dangerous storm system was battering an area in the US. Because I knew a 'catter who lived in that area I PMed him, emailed him and started a thread to warn him in the event he'd not been listening to the news that day. Anyway, it was a wasted effort because in the midst of an extremely foul and dangerous weather system his area was enjoying a very light rain with moderate winds. Go figure.

Weather predictions are just that: predictions. No track bookie is always 100% correct. Nor is any weather forecaster. Both are educated guessers in their respective fields of expertise, and sometimes the guesses are wrong.

Subject: RE: BS: How accurate are weather forecasts?
From: Ed T
Date: 21 May 15 - 12:33 PM

Whike complex, with many variables, predicting the weather over the short term is less complex than predicting chaos.


Predicting chaos 

Subject: RE: BS: How accurate are weather forecasts?
From: GUEST
Date: 21 May 15 - 12:34 PM

Consider also how the forecast is sometimes misrepresented. If the forecast is 30% chance of rain, a TV weather presenter will say "rain tomorrow." But actually the weather service is saying "we don't think it will rain but we're not completely sure of that."

Subject: RE: BS: How accurate are weather forecasts?
From: Ed T
Date: 21 May 15 - 12:36 PM

PREDICTABILITY, CHAOS & THE WEATHER





weather predictions 

Subject: RE: BS: How accurate are weather forecasts?
From: Stilly River Sage
Date: 21 May 15 - 05:48 PM

Joe, we seem to have extra rain this year, I wish I could send you some. It looks like Seattle, not Fort Worth, this spring (except Seattle isn't getting as much rain as North Texas is, either. The good thing, it's filling up a lot of what were depleted reservoirs).

Living in "Tornado Alley," forecasts are vital. And over time you get to where you can look at the weather radar and see the things they point out - like the super cells and the "hooks" that denote tornadic activity. Duck for cover!

SRS

Subject: RE: BS: How accurate are weather forecasts?
From: GUEST,JHW
Date: 22 May 15 - 03:54 AM

I've put on the laptop this morning to see what the met reckons the weather will be. Cloudy all day all over the North East of England. Outside there's barely a cloud. Glorious sun. Several days ahead are forecast but tomorrow they'll all be different. Little use, indeed a distraction.
When I hear the Shipping Forecast I wonder if that is any use to fishermen etc. or just a tradition

Subject: RE: BS: How accurate are weather forecasts?
From: GUEST,leeneia
Date: 22 May 15 - 10:23 AM

Surely it's got to help to know where the big storms are.

Subject: RE: BS: How accurate are weather forecasts?
From: gnu
Date: 22 May 15 - 12:03 PM

I have 22 Favourites in my Weather folder as I desperately have to "get it right" so Mum doesn't panic when the TV and radio weather terrorists try to scare her driven by the fact that some TV advertising slots get sold in real time by monitoring viewership... welcome to the digital world.

Of course, I have the moon and the sky as well but not as in the days when I worked and played in the great outdoors. My old man was good because he spent his summers on a farm. He taught me. He even used to wake me at 4AM September-November and teach me how to read the sky and pay attention to the odors and such.

Subject: RE: BS: How accurate are weather forecasts?
From: GUEST,#
Date: 22 May 15 - 07:15 PM

". . . teach me how to read the sky and pay attention to the odors and such."

We're in a valley that has its own micro weather system. Found it best and most accurate to use the rock method. It works all the time, 100%.

Subject: RE: BS: How accurate are weather forecasts?
From: GUEST
Date: 22 May 15 - 07:58 PM

We really should be able to do that. Animals seem able to.
Maybe it's something we lost as we acquired technology to replace it.

Subject: RE: BS: How accurate are weather forecasts?
From: GUEST
Date: 23 May 15 - 10:38 AM

I saw a TV programme a while ago which looked at, among other things, the reliability of weather forecasts based upon computer models such as the one used by the Met. Office.
Up to 24 hours the forecast was reliable and the visuals presented were clear and easy to read. By day 5 the visual information on the screen was chaotic and a meteorologist said that given the number of variables it was not possible to claim any degree of accuracy.

Subject: RE: BS: How accurate are weather forecasts?
From: Ed T
Date: 23 May 15 - 11:15 AM

Sky Watchers Guide To Cloud Identification:


Cloud formations 

Subject: RE: BS: How accurate are weather forecasts?
From: GUEST,leeneia
Date: 23 May 15 - 11:40 AM

Thanks for the link, Ed.
============
In my part of the world, we have two different systems controlling the weather. One system consists of air masses and air pressure. The other system is the weather demons.

For example, yesterday the Weather Service said we were virtually certain to get heavy rain in the afternoon. I had received a shipment of bare-root daylilies, and they needed to go in the ground.   The DH and I postponed lunch and planted daylilies while we were hungry and tired.

So we got the lilies planted, and of course it didn't rain. The weather demons preferred to watch us drag the hose out and trudge up and down steps in order to use expensive city water to water the lilies in.
======
If I were organizing a folk festival, I would have the board members transplant roses (or similar) on the day before the festival so that the weather demons would hoard the rain. It's not a surefire method, but then neither is scientific weather prediction.