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BS: Space program goals

beardedbruce 14 Dec 16 - 02:14 PM
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Subject: BS: Space program goals
From: beardedbruce
Date: 14 Dec 16 - 02:14 PM

https://www.wired.com/2016/12/dear-president-trump-heres-make-space-great/

A fairly good piece on goals we should be pursuing in space. I agree with them generally. I have been trying to get the company I work for to start working on the infrastructure to support Lunar and Martian exploration ( supply ships and depots, communication and navigational satellites).

Can we have a reasonable discussion of this, please?


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Subject: RE: BS: Space program goals
From: Iains
Date: 14 Dec 16 - 02:42 PM

If it gave the military industrial complex a series of essentially pacifist goals to strive for it would be no bad thing.

The US will build the first comprehensive system to defend Earth from hazardous asteroids and comets.
The risk of meteorite impacts has only recently had serious consideration from a few scientists and received little funding. Some argue the Younger Dryas cold period had it's genesis from an impact. Had the 1908 Tunguska event occurred over a major city the death toll would have been horrendous(700 sq miles of forest flattened by a bolide airburst.) The calculated size of tsunamis that could be generated by an oceanic impact is horrendous. Suffice it to say the destruction of coastal nuclear power stations would be one of the minor considerations in the aftermath.
Thus far it is a field of study seriously underfunded and suffering a lack of recognition. No doubt if a strike hit parliament it the funding issue would soon be solved.

For many it is a controversial subject and as yet is not mainstream.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holocene_Impact_Working_Group


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Subject: RE: BS: Space program goals
From: Donuel
Date: 14 Dec 16 - 02:47 PM

If we are going to use gravity tractors we should launch them now.

Not everything in space is profitable, some asteroid gold may be highly radioactive.

The top of the list should be mass deflection (more than magnetic)

After that, warp drive.

Right now some of the best new toys to come are specialized telescopes from the UK. I want one.


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Subject: RE: BS: Space program goals
From: beardedbruce
Date: 14 Dec 16 - 02:49 PM

Iains,

Agreed on all points. One of the worthwhile goals we SHOULD have been working on from 1970 onward. SKYWATCH ( to identify threats) was never fully funded, and should have been. Nothing has been done to deal with any possible threats ( sort of like Climate Change).


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Subject: RE: BS: Space program goals
From: beardedbruce
Date: 14 Dec 16 - 03:01 PM

Donuel,

Sorry, any radioactive isotopes of gold would have decayed away, if they are not being produced in the solar system. Where do you think transmutation is happening?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Isotopes_of_gold

Please note the half-lives- any trace amounts left after 4.5 to 5 billion years would not be a risk.

And we do not (yet) have gravity tractors of warp drives, in any deployable form. I have no problem working on them, but it would be nice to have some means of changing the orbits of bodies that would otherwise collide with the earth ASAP.


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Subject: RE: BS: Space program goals
From: Donuel
Date: 14 Dec 16 - 03:45 PM

You misunderstand, Gravity tractors can delay or speed up asteroids to miss Earth. Pure research that is not profit driven may enable needed discoveries like deflectors.

You are right, only rogue 'rocks' from another star or system would be risky.

In the way people still don't believe Albert that space can move faster than light, there is a way for black holes to produce/expel elemental matter but while photographed, it is still hypothetical.

Not even mining the moon of isotopes of Helium is not yet cost effective. Making a buck off space is a Trump mindset that sounds good while pure research is one of the harder things to sell to Congress.


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Subject: RE: BS: Space program goals
From: Donuel
Date: 14 Dec 16 - 06:29 PM

I have a mental picture of a dramatic day on Earth when a less than moon sized body struck the pacific area in a trajectory slightly east to west and up from the equator. BAM the collision sent more material up into orbit that the impact body. The heavier elements in the Earth came up as the molten crater filled in.

The ejecta made a bright fiery ring around the earth and settled down to several spherical bodies and finally into one called the moon. One side of the moon had heavier elements than the other which was subjected to less gravity. Only one size faces earth.

Back on Earth the heavier gold was sloshed up around the east side of the ring of fire. Some in shocked quartz and some all the way to the surface. The ring of fire may be a remnant of the smaller impact object. We have found the moon to be mostly light weight Earth stuff.

How long ago could this have happened? I dunno.

PS it also may have given the earth its seasonable wobble.


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Subject: RE: BS: Space program goals
From: Rapparee
Date: 14 Dec 16 - 08:50 PM

I'd like to see all of it happen. Nobody ever lost a dime from pure research.


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Subject: RE: BS: Space program goals
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 14 Dec 16 - 08:53 PM

Some people have been watching too many disaster movies.


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Subject: RE: BS: Space program goals
From: Iains
Date: 15 Dec 16 - 03:56 AM

Steve the request was for a reasonable discussion. Are you having comprehension problems yet again?


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Subject: RE: BS: Space program goals
From: Mr Red
Date: 15 Dec 16 - 04:31 AM

The effort to get to Mars with people is going to be a very expensive venture. The Newtonian reality is the energy needed to get peeps and supplies is never going away. And getting them back needs more energy.

Solving the problems of bone loss and muscle atrophy are not small projects. Once you get peeps to Mars could they stand up/walk and do anything useful? If the answer was yes it implies yet more bulk (and energy) to get it all there.

The profligacy here on Earth and global warming may make the will to expend that energy be very politically incorrect. Times and fashions will change when we can't feed the rise in population here.

I suspect that in our lifetime and that of our children, we will be sending machines only.

But if we did try to get people to Mars soon, can I nominate someone who will have little else to conquer when reality bites in 4 years time?


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Subject: RE: BS: Space program goals
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 15 Dec 16 - 07:40 AM

You have a lot to learn, Iains. Neither you nor Bruce (one of the most unreasonable people you'll ever encounter on an internet forum, by the way) may dictate how a discussion goes. My post was a succinct way of my saying that I think the whole issue of meteorite crashes has been over-dramatised and that disaster movies don't help, over-firing the imaginations of the gullible as they do. I'm sorry if my opinion doesn't match yours. I didn't attack you, yet here you are yet again with your Teribusesque sideswipes at my alleged lack of comprehension. You should be very careful because I won't hesitate to take your rather unfocused and occasionally less-than-literate burblings to pieces and ridicule you in similar vein if you continue. Yours in comradely warmness.


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Subject: RE: BS: Space program goals
From: beardedbruce
Date: 15 Dec 16 - 08:06 AM

Donuel,

"You misunderstand, Gravity tractors can delay or speed up asteroids to miss Earth. "

I do understand what you mean, but we do NOT have a deployable gravity tractor at this time, nor in the immediate future.


"Pure research that is not profit driven may enable needed discoveries like deflectors."

Agreed.

"Not even mining the moon of isotopes of Helium is not yet cost effective. Making a buck off space is a Trump mindset that sounds good while pure research is one of the harder things to sell to Congress."

Actually, the water found by a program I was on (Clementine/DSPSE) at the south pole of the moon would be cheaper than launching it from earth for lunar colonies/bases and deep-space missions. The potential yield of even a small asteroid in usable metals would be significant, and would be cheaper IN ORBIT than earth-produced by the launch costs ( hopefully going down, by for now a significant amount).


"I have a mental picture of a dramatic day on Earth when a less than moon sized body struck the pacific area in a trajectory slightly east to west and up from the equator. BAM the collision sent more material up into orbit that the impact body. The heavier elements in the Earth came up as the molten crater filled in."

A theory that is making the rounds- but it would have been 3-5.5 billion years ago, when the earth was a lot hotter.

Mr. Shaw,

http://theweek.com/speedreads/667239/nasa-scientist-warns-earth-due-extinctionlevel-event

I will presume you don't bother with accident insurance, either.

Mr. Red,

"The effort to get to Mars with people is going to be a very expensive venture. The Newtonian reality is the energy needed to get peeps and supplies is never going away. And getting them back needs more energy."

It requires energy, but we have the technology today to do it.

"Solving the problems of bone loss and muscle atrophy are not small projects. Once you get peeps to Mars could they stand up/walk and do anything useful? If the answer was yes it implies yet more bulk (and energy) to get it all there."

Currently, a centripetal force base ( centrifuge , spinning spacecraft, or two linked spacecraft tethered together) is the best we can do- but it can be done. We would only need Mars normal gravity, about 1/3 g. ISS has proven that long duration zero gravity can be withstood by appropriate exercise routines.


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Subject: RE: BS: Space program goals
From: Mrrzy
Date: 15 Dec 16 - 08:18 AM

I like the Star Trek and Known Space universes, but started worrying about the microbiome a while back. Now I worry that they'll get to Mars, but be blind.


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Subject: RE: BS: Space program goals
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 15 Dec 16 - 08:26 AM

That's just a load of nonsense, Bruce, and you know it. "Overdue" my arse. You know very well that regularity isn't how these things work. Anyway, never mind, as yer man sez we can't do anything about it anyway, except for putting one's head 'twixt one's legs and kissing one's arse goodbye (my addition). I do have accident cover but you can bet your life there's a getout clause for earth-destroying meteorite impacts. "Your claim will be void in the event of everyone being dead."


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Subject: RE: BS: Space program goals
From: Iains
Date: 15 Dec 16 - 08:38 AM

Steve,
the jury is still out on periodicity.


http://www.americanscientist.org/issues/pub/perturbing-the-oort-cloud


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Subject: RE: BS: Space program goals
From: beardedbruce
Date: 15 Dec 16 - 08:39 AM

Wrong again, Mr. Shaw.

1. Comets and the Oort cloud are in ORBITS- they are by definition regular.

2. When near collisions in the Oort cloud change the orbits ( by small amounts) the period remains about the same- and many of the objects in the cloud have orbits of about the same period.

3. When a long-term orbit crosses the inner solar system, it is perturbed by the planets. EACH time it comes in, it has a different path
relative to the Earth- and sometimes it WILL collide.

As long as we sit with our heads up our asses, as you and I am sure GregtrF would prefer, you are right- we can't do anything about it anyway, except for putting one's head 'twixt one's legs and kissing one's arse goodbye.

But some of us are aware that we have the means to change the orbits of objects, IF we know what they are and have the desire or need to do so. THAT is why knowing about the possible impacts is important- If we know 15 years BEFORE IMPACT we can possibly avoid "the event of everyone being dead.

Seems like a worthwhile thing to me, but perhaps you would rather be dead.


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Subject: RE: BS: Space program goals
From: Iains
Date: 15 Dec 16 - 08:53 AM

Steve
Much as I hate to take you out of your comfort zone, I would not want you to be under any illusions as to frequency of impacts. They do happen.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_impact_craters_on_Earth

That list is not complete by any means.


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Subject: RE: BS: Space program goals
From: Rapparee
Date: 15 Dec 16 - 09:51 AM

Orbits are predictable, usually needing only two points to compute (although more is better). Observation of two or more points also can give the velocity of the object.

Since the Earth/Moon pair has a known orbit and speed, a point of interaction with another orbit is easy to compute even without a computer program. It's been done using slide rules and even paper and pencil/quill/pen. It's a two dimensional problem, as observation and prediction should be able take into account deviations caused by the gravity of other planets, etc.


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Subject: RE: BS: Space program goals
From: beardedbruce
Date: 15 Dec 16 - 10:02 AM

Rapparee,

Three points, actually- they are not circular orbits. The problem is in three dimensions: I will gladly take a miss above or below the plane of the planets.


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Subject: RE: BS: Space program goals
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 15 Dec 16 - 10:20 AM

Not under any illusions, thanks. We have far more urgent matters to worry about. In any case, you never know: a well-aimed meteorite may well take out Trump. As with God, stop worrying about it and enjoy life.


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Subject: RE: BS: Space program goals
From: Donuel
Date: 15 Dec 16 - 02:35 PM

From the Northern hemisphere look for Orion then draw the line that would follow the path of the sun then make that solar line pass through Orion, now while keeping the intersection with Orion turn the line to the right about 20 degrees.

This is the proposed path that planet X takes way out past part of the Ort cloud.


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Subject: RE: BS: Space program goals
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 15 Dec 16 - 03:21 PM

Orion's quite big, Donuel...


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Subject: RE: BS: Space program goals
From: Mr Red
Date: 15 Dec 16 - 05:42 PM

Getting to Mars is expensive. Getting peeps to Mars is way beyond expensive. Expensive in things we will worry about.

In theory we could solve all the problems (eventually), and find the money. In our current world view.

But when the bogeyman that is global warming affects the USA in their pockets, methinks the political climate will change dramatically. And a death or two in striving for an airless planet will nail it for a long, long time.

They fight wars over water now. When food is difficult to grow here on earth, the fight will get worse. Meanwhile the world will be too pre-occupied with defence to address the causes of the global warming/fighting. Going to Mars will be a luxury too far by then IMHO. Don't you think we should fix this planet before fucking up another?

Events in 2016 are only a taster. I make no apologies for playing the TRUMP card. U ain't seen nuffink yet - PAL !


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Subject: RE: BS: Space program goals
From: beardedbruce
Date: 16 Dec 16 - 10:04 AM

Mr Red,

So, because there were problems in Europe, there should not have been colonists in the Americas?

The development of space-based industries will help deal with some of the problems we have today ( pollution, resources) while probably bringing up other concerns.


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Subject: RE: BS: Space program goals
From: Iains
Date: 16 Dec 16 - 10:19 AM

unfortunately wars spur technological development, transferring these skills to space industries would create similar advances.


http://www.expertreviews.co.uk/technology/7907/top-inventions-and-technical-innovations-of-world-war-2


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Subject: RE: BS: Space program goals
From: beardedbruce
Date: 16 Dec 16 - 10:31 AM

Iains,

IMO, the failure to develop technologies that provides more resources and reduces pollution here on Earth will lead to undesirable consequences- Either the living standards or the population will be reduced without them.

Probably by armed conflict.


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Subject: RE: BS: Space program goals
From: Iains
Date: 16 Dec 16 - 11:02 AM

Bearded Bruce. I think resource wars are already occurring. I do not think the 1990 invasion of Iraq was purely a battle over sand dunes or ideology, or even because of the invasion of Kuwait. If there was no oil there would be no fighting over a bit of arid scrub and desert.
The same applies to the toppling of Gaddafi. The only surprise is that Saudi thus far is immune. This would be nothing to do with huge sales of weaponry to them of course.
   Prior to that Mohammad Mosaddegh was toppled in Iran in the 50's, and of coursepreviously nationalising the Anglo Iranian Oil Company(BP) had nothing to do with his fall either.


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Subject: RE: BS: Space program goals
From: beardedbruce
Date: 16 Dec 16 - 11:17 AM

" I think resource wars are already occurring."

Agreed that most wars are fought over resources.


But we have yet to dive off the cliff and really start to reduce populations. A new influx of resources from space MIGHT slow this down.


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Subject: RE: BS:
From: punkfolkrocker
Date: 16 Dec 16 - 12:11 PM

Space program goals... ???

like...errrmmm... Meat and potato pie 'sent into space' from Wigan


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Subject: RE: BS: Space program goals
From: beardedbruce
Date: 16 Dec 16 - 12:59 PM

punkfolkrocker,

from your clickey:

"The aim is to see if its journey up to 100,000ft (30km) changes the molecular structure of the pie making it quicker to eat. "


"There is no firm boundary where outer space starts. However the Kármán line, at an altitude of 100 km (62 mi) above sea level,[7][8] is conventionally used as the start of outer space in space treaties and for aerospace records keeping. The framework for international space law was established by the Outer Space Treaty, which was passed by the United Nations in 1967. "

So the goal there was not quite space.


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Subject: RE: BS: Space program goals
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 16 Dec 16 - 04:40 PM

Bollocks, Bruce. That's just pie in the sky and you know it.


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Subject: RE: BS: Space program goals
From: Greg F.
Date: 16 Dec 16 - 05:12 PM

Not under any illusions, thanks. We have far more urgent matters to worry about.

Ah yes, Steve, but if we concentrated on matters of SUBSTANCE the Trumpists, CowFartBruce and Bubo would be at a serious disadvantage:

All this is further evidence of Trump's genius. He is master of the Art of Disorientation. He's turned Americans into cartoon characters whose heads are always spinning. How the president-elect must laugh at all the fact-based journalism (ghastly tautological phrase) dedicated to disproving things he never believed and can't remember anyway.

The disoriented are more inclined to seek saviors. Trump knows that. Before anyone else, he was onto the way that direct democracy through social media has buried representative democracy.


www.nytimes.com/2016/12/16/opinion/trumps-chinese-foreign-policy.html


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Subject: RE: BS: Space program goals
From: Mr Red
Date: 17 Dec 16 - 06:01 AM

So, because there were problems in Europe, there should not have been colonists in the Americas?

Some of those problems were direct in causing the emigration. Religious intolerance. If privation was the only driver, then they found more privation in America. Many colonies failed. Death ensued.
And Scotland tried it, bet the farm(s) on it, which bankrupted a lot of people, and precipitated Union.
And America (I am told) has acceptable atmosphere. ;-)

The proverb about giving a starving man in the desert seems to be apt. (other genders are available)

It is not that it couldn't be done, given enough time and effort (and money let it not be forgotten). It is not that a few deaths would stop the project. But Mars has no immediate resources. All would have to be taken. Or machines to manufacture them. Water? at the poles, where the temperature is - er - colder than any part of America.

When the global warming becomes so pressing that we have to deal with it, which takes money. Mars will not be so appealing in that climate (whatever we have by then)...... Mars is not a back-up system for Earth.

Nero seems to spring to mind..................


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Subject: RE: BS: Space program goals
From: Iains
Date: 17 Dec 16 - 06:21 AM

Mr Red. It is not until Global Warming/Climate Change is in your face(so to speak) that anything positive will be done about it.
But the old maxim "Better late than never" in this case will turn out to be too little, too late, tough S****t!


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Subject: RE: BS: Space program goals
From: Donuel
Date: 17 Dec 16 - 09:47 PM

Big goals require many little but amazing advances in material science.

Some of the new advances in creating new materials will knock your socks off. I'll mention just one; hydro phobic metal.


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Subject: RE: BS: Space program goals
From: punkfolkrocker
Date: 17 Dec 16 - 10:54 PM

Metal is supposed to be hard.. not a big soft jessy afraid of water... 😜


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Subject: RE: BS: Space program goals
From: Donuel
Date: 18 Dec 16 - 06:30 PM

With Hydrophobic metal airplanes would never ice up again.


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Subject: RE: BS: Space program goals
From: beardedbruce
Date: 20 Dec 16 - 09:30 AM

Mr. Shaw,

"Bollocks, Bruce. That's just pie in the sky and you know it. "


Please tell us how much experience in the space program you have, to make such an observation.

No, it is not bollocks.


We have had the technology since about 1985 to send men to Mars and return them safely. We have the knowledge now, from ISS, to know that this can be done safely, even in zero-gee traveling vehicles.

I can see no reason that the effort to send men to Mars would be a waste of resources- in fact, looking at the spinoffs from the space program, I think that it would be more effective to be going to Mars than any of the present efforts to stop climate change, in terms of efficiency of energy usage and pollution control.


Please tell us how much experience in the space program you have, to make such an observation.


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Subject: RE: BS: Space program goals
From: beardedbruce
Date: 21 Dec 16 - 12:11 PM

Donual,

Not a lot of water in space. What is there, one would want to capture. Recycling is fine, but there are always some losses.

Cheapest way to terraform Mars would be to take chunks of ice from Saturn's rings and put them into collision orbits with Mars. That, plus an effort to break up the mineral oxcides to get free oxygen,, and we could have a number of good sites to live in (say, in canyons or depressions where the atmospheric density would get up to what people live at in the Andes or Himalayans)


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Subject: RE: BS: Space program goals
From: Jeri
Date: 21 Dec 16 - 03:14 PM

You know, his name is spelt "DonuEl".

Regarding Mars, I have no doubt we'll end up going there eventually. The logistics of having people live there are mind-boggling to me.


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Subject: RE: BS: Space program goals
From: beardedbruce
Date: 21 Dec 16 - 03:18 PM

Sorry, Donuel. mea culpa.


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Subject: RE: BS: Space program goals
From: beardedbruce
Date: 22 Dec 16 - 02:18 PM

Jeri,

Hw different is it to live on the ISS than on Mars?

The ISS is in space, with no atmosphere at all around it, No natural shielding from cosmic rays or solar flares, not resources except what has been shipped up there.

Mars has an atmosphere to protect against cosmic rays, solar flares, and micro meteors. It has physical resources that can be utilized for both construction and supply.

Agreed, it does take a bit longer to get to. Months to Mars vs Hours to the ISS. This means that supplies should be sent first, so they are already in Mars orbit when needed. Not a major problem: Mars has a moon that would be more useful than the ISS for a supply dump (Deimos) and then the time to surface would be similar to the time to orbit for the ISS.


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Subject: RE: BS: Space program goals
From: beardedbruce
Date: 22 Dec 16 - 02:26 PM

The problem was looked at for the moon

https://www.wired.com/2012/04/one-way-space-man-1962/

The trick is to put the supplies in place BEFORE they are needed- either in orbit or land them on Deimos, or on the martian surface.

They can even be launched is a series so that the manned capsules ( paired, and swinging round a common center to simulate gravity) can pick them up either in Mars orbit, or overtake them enroute.


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Subject: RE: BS: Space program goals
From: beardedbruce
Date: 22 Dec 16 - 02:42 PM

"At the end of their IAS paper and their Aerospace Engineering article, Cord and Seale explained that the One-Way Space Man concept could be applied throughout the Solar System. When next the concept of a one-way manned space mission was proposed, it was aimed at Mars, and it was envisioned as a truly one-way mission.

At the Case for Mars VI conference in July 1996, George William Herbert of Retro Aerospace proposed dispatching middle-aged scientists on a one-way journey to the Red Planet to cut costs and increase scientific payback. His scenario had the scientists living out their natural lives while exploring the planet to which they had dedicated their careers. Herbert's was a new kind of desperation mission. He and his fellow Mars enthusiasts were not desperate to beat another country to Mars; rather, they were desperate to see humans on Mars."


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Subject: RE: BS: Space program goals
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 22 Dec 16 - 03:43 PM

Jaysus H. Christ, Bruce, when I said it was pie in the sky I was making a bloody JOKE! Read your own post then read mine of 0440 pm on the 16th immediately following it. Geddit? Pie in space? Pie in the sky?? 😂😂😂


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Subject: RE: BS: Space program goals
From: Iains
Date: 22 Dec 16 - 03:53 PM

This is no place for levity Mr Shaw, even if it is all pie in the sky to you.


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Subject: RE: BS: Space program goals
From: Jeri
Date: 22 Dec 16 - 03:58 PM

Bruce, how long does one spend on the ISS and how long would they stay on Mars? Lack of gravity and loss of bone density could be a problem. Also, does Mars get more radiation than Earth? I don't know these things, which is the primary source of the boggle: permanent residency vs a long visit.


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Subject: RE: BS: Space program goals
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 22 Dec 16 - 04:00 PM

Get it right, Iains. Pie in the sky is levitation, not levity. Tsk.


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Subject: RE: BS: Space program goals
From: beardedbruce
Date: 22 Dec 16 - 04:54 PM

Mr Shaw,

I was looking at your previous posts to determine your attitude. No humor noticed. Sorry if I missed the connection to punkfolkrocker's post.

Jeri,

ISS missions are on the order of a year. Zero gee the entire time, but regular exercise.

Mars is at 1/3 gee, so that is not a problem with bone loss. However, the transit time is 10-18 months, so some pseudo-gravity by rotation, or spinning two spacecraft around a central point is highly desireable.


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Subject: RE: BS: Space program goals
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 22 Dec 16 - 05:20 PM

Give over, Bruce. I'm a born comedian. Even Teribus thinks so.


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Subject: RE: BS: Space program goals
From: Iains
Date: 23 Dec 16 - 05:42 AM

Not levitation Mr Shaw, it was balloon assisted. Maybe hot air was the motive force.


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Subject: RE: BS: Space program goals
From: Mr Red
Date: 23 Dec 16 - 08:28 AM

It is all a matter of scale. If you were Syrian living in Allepo, the focus is dodging the Russian bombs. Global warming, however concerning, is a minor consideration for them, it will wait.

I don't yet see what technology will come out of sending men or menesses to Mars will contribute to solving the privations of Global Warming.
Terra-forming is all very well on another planet when the only consequence of mistakes is a few human deaths but who is going to risk a different kind of tinkering with the air we breath? Trump maybe - he is stoopid enough to think of it.

I personally think mining asteroids has a better chance of pay-off, once we figure how to keep a lander glued to an irregular surface in virtually zero G.

It is all about profit. However that is measured.


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Subject: RE: BS: Space program goals
From: beardedbruce
Date: 23 Dec 16 - 08:49 AM

Mr Red,

"It is all about profit. However that is measured. "

As was the exploration and colonization of the Americas, and all the European Empires expansions.




"I personally think mining asteroids has a better chance of pay-off, once we figure how to keep a lander glued to an irregular surface in virtually zero G."

Agreed, in the short term. A new source of resources, not in a gravity well.
Attachment is fairly easy- Magnetic to metallic asteroids, sunken in anchors ( by melting) to the ice and rocky ones.




"I don't yet see what technology will come out of sending men or menesses to Mars will contribute to solving the privations of Global Warming."

Closed loop resource recycling, non-carbon energy production, CO2 utilization for hydroponics... and all the ones we can't see until they are developed.



No need to terra-form Earth- we already have an atmosphere and lots of free water!

But remember, the difference between a self-contained space colony and a star-ship is only propulsion.


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Subject: RE: BS: Space program goals
From: beardedbruce
Date: 23 Dec 16 - 08:51 AM

Actually, I should have said
"...and all the expansions of any human culture."

Just depends on what the leaders decide is "profit"


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Subject: RE: BS: Space program goals
From: beardedbruce
Date: 23 Dec 16 - 09:21 AM

An interesting take on space is in Blish's "Cities in Flight" series.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cities_in_Flight

Written 55-65 years ago.

"In the period in between the first and second parts, the Cold War ended with the peaceful merging of the East and West blocks into a single, planet-wide Soviet-ruled dictatorship, which hardly made any perceptible change, as the West's political system had already become virtually identical with the Soviet one. However, this dictatorial power was broken by the spindizzy drive which works for very large objects, so that dissidents and malcontents have an easy way of escaping and going off into space. First factories, then eventually whole cities migrate from the economically depressed Earth in search of work; these space-wandering cities are called Okies."


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Subject: RE: BS: Space program goals
From: beardedbruce
Date: 23 Dec 16 - 10:21 AM

Jeri,

I lost a post

"Also, does Mars get more radiation than Earth? "

Mars gets less solar radiation, being farther from the sun. It has some atmosphere, which will reduce cosmic rays, but not as much as here on Earth. We have a noticable difference between sea-level cities and, say, Denver.

Another reason to land on Mars rather than stay in orbit- one can bury the habitat in that available Martian soil, to provide shielding.


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Subject: RE: BS: Space program goals
From: Greg F.
Date: 23 Dec 16 - 10:29 AM

It is all about profit.

Its also about weaponization, Mr. Red.


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Subject: RE: BS: Space program goals
From: Jeri
Date: 23 Dec 16 - 11:01 AM

Thanks Bruce.
Centrifugal force. I wonder why they didn't do that on the ISS. Probably money, engineering and...logistics. That, and they didn't expect people to stay longer than a year. So the rehab they got after returning was enough.

I accidentally watched part of a show on something like the Discovery channel. "Mars". It was a documentary ("mockumentary"?)about how the colony on Mars came to be. Have you seen it?


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Subject: RE: BS: Space program goals
From: beardedbruce
Date: 23 Dec 16 - 11:25 AM

"Centrifugal force. I wonder why they didn't do that on the ISS. "

Well, the ISS was designed as an Earth Observation system- much of what it does is tied to looking at the Earth. Harder to do if it was spinning. In addition, the structural requirements of a spinning system would have made the solar arrays a LOT more difficult to install and use.

As it is, one can "park" something outside the ISS, and it stays in that relative position. If there were spin on the ISS, each approach would have to be to the central axis, and anything placed outside at any other point would go off at the spin velocity.



Not the Nat Geo special. I have seen the fictional "The Martian", which is not a bad film. Not always scientifically accurate, but that's Hollywood for you.


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Subject: RE: BS: Space program goals
From: Donuel
Date: 23 Dec 16 - 01:44 PM

Von Braun was heavily invested in centrifugal stations.
The ISS crew is always poised and ready to bug out in the event of an enormous solar event.

Its interesting to point out that women's eyes are a bit more robust than men's eyes in space. There are other differences also.

Evolution in as little as a generation could occur when dormant genes wake up. That may indicate previous exposure to the rarified stress of space travel. Imagine a 50,000 year old adaptation we have no idea we already have. This is all far flung speculation but good filler for sci fi.

What other cool stuff do know Bruce?


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Subject: RE: BS: Space program goals
From: Greg F.
Date: 23 Dec 16 - 02:10 PM

Vunce der rokets go up, who cares vere dey come down
Dat's not mein department, sez Verner VonBraun.

What's old is new again.


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Subject: RE: BS: Space program goals
From: beardedbruce
Date: 23 Dec 16 - 02:15 PM

The new Emdrive looks promising, but still developmental- too low a thrust, and no idea how it scales. ion drives are in use now (DAWN)

http://www.space.com/28732-nasa-dawn-spacecraft-ion-propulsion.html
but still low thrust and requires material to eject.

Light sails have the most potential, longer term, IMO. Space based laser systems could provide a decent thrust, or be used for deacceleration.

Linear accelerators /mass drivers are also in development ( one man's railgun is another man's launcher.) Give me a way to impart a speed of 25,000 mph at 120 miles up, in the right direction, and I can put you on the moon.

SNAAP systems ( like the one shown in "The Martian") have been in use, but provide low levels of energy for extremely long periods of time- OK for a coasting spacecraft like Voyager, but not much use for an accelerating platform.


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Subject: RE: BS: Space program goals
From: beardedbruce
Date: 23 Dec 16 - 03:13 PM

Should have been "SNAP"
System for Nuclear Auxillary Power.

I had the engineering unit of a NIMBUS SNAP power conditioner.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Radioisotope_thermoelectric_generator


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Subject: RE: BS: Space program goals
From: Greg F.
Date: 23 Dec 16 - 05:44 PM

Fascinating as Mr. Spock would say;

Post about the weaponazition of space es desaparacido.

And the Mudcat Junta knows....


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Subject: RE: BS: Space program goals
From: beardedbruce
Date: 27 Dec 16 - 10:39 AM

Greg,

Weapons in Earth orbit are prohibited, like poison gas is. Did not keep China from testing one on one of their satellites.



On the several SDIO/BMDO programs I have been on, we were only allowed to have sensors in the space segment.


No limits on the moon or beyond, unfortunately. And a dumb rock, in the right trajectory, is a weapon (See Caveman 100).


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Subject: RE: BS: Space program goals
From: beardedbruce
Date: 29 Dec 16 - 12:18 PM

But if the US does not work on space exploration, others will...


English is the language of international flight- Will Chinese be the one of interplanetary flight?


https://www.yahoo.com/news/china-wants-mars-2020-190121312.html


http://www.newsmax.com/TheWire/china-moon-mars-white/2016/12/28/id/765822/


https://www.yahoo.com/tech/china-going-beat-united-states-back-moon-010043116.html





https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_human_spaceflight_programme


http://www.businessinsider.com/japan-is-launching-an-asteroid-mining-space-program-2014-9



http://motherboard.vice.com/read/irans-space-program-may-be-a-cover-for-developing-better-ballistic-missiles



http://spaceref.ca/space-quarterly/military-space-drives-israel-space-program-for-now.html


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Subject: RE: BS: Space program goals
From: beardedbruce
Date: 30 Dec 16 - 08:21 AM

https://www.yahoo.com/news/nasa-neowise-mission-spies-two-072652143.html


Yet still no systematic effort to identify bodies that might impact the Earth.

6 inches of water rise and slow climactic change over decades- PANIC

2000 foot wave from impact and major climactic change in a few weeks- ho hum, no worries here


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Subject: RE: BS: Space program goals
From: beardedbruce
Date: 30 Dec 16 - 08:32 AM

http://www.unz.org/Pub/AnalogSF-1966mar-00061

An excellent non-fiction analysis of the problem.


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Subject: RE: BS: Space program goals
From: David Carter (UK)
Date: 01 Jan 17 - 02:54 PM

Sorry, I must challenge a couple of things that beardedbruce has said. First, there most definitely is a systematic effort to identify bodies which might impact earth, and details are given here and here. The primary discovery facility currently is Pan-STARRS. To date 90% of all NEOs bigger than 1km have been discovered, and they are now pushing to smaller sizes. The thing that will clean the statistics up will be the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope which will be operational from 2021.

Second, Bruce says that "the new Emdrive looks promising, but it doesn't because its complete baloney. This is a proposal by a British engineer, Roger Shawyer, for which he once succeeded in getting a government grant. Its been around for years, and has been debunked by both theory and experiment. Basically it is a tapered microwave resonant cavity, and Shawyer's claim is that thrust can be generated by from the electromagnetic field inside. But it can't, except in miniscule quantities. See articles from Greg Egan here, and from John C. Baez, Professor of Mathematical Physics at the University of California, Riverside, here, here and here.


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Subject: RE: BS: Space program goals
From: beardedbruce
Date: 03 Jan 17 - 08:32 AM

"The new Emdrive looks promising, but still developmental- too low a thrust, and no idea how it scales."

The jury is still out.

90% is not goofd enough- Not that we are doing nothing, but are we doing ENOUGH?

And NEO misses most of the higher velocity objects.


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Subject: RE: BS: Space program goals
From: David Carter (UK)
Date: 03 Jan 17 - 10:32 AM

Scales with what Bruce? The reason it has too low a thrust is nothing to do with development, its to do with basic physics as Baez and others explain. You say that the ion drive "requires material to eject", of course it does, anything does. Because of conservation of momentum, anything which generates momentum in a forward direction must also shoot stuff out of the back so that the total momentum is conserved. Stuff can be matter, as it is in any conventional rocket and an ion drive. Or it can be radiation. Photons (including microwaves) carry momentum, and when I heard Shawyer talk about this about a decade ago, photons were carrying the reaction momentum. Photons have a momentum p=E/c, where E is the energy of a photon, and c is the speed of light. But as we know, c is a very big number.

I came away from Shawyer's talk not knowing whether the device wouldn't work at all, or whether it would work, but in order to get an emdrive rocket to take off you would need to put out enough microwaves to cook every living thing for hundreds of miles around.

Fortunately, having subsequently read Egan's and Baez's analyses, its the first.

Don't be fooled by Harold White of Eagleworks either, he has a paper which is claimed to be peer-reviewed, but who peer-reviewed it I don't know because others have subsequently pointed out large holes in the analysis. See here.


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Subject: RE: BS: Space program goals
From: David Carter (UK)
Date: 03 Jan 17 - 10:41 AM

And no, the searches don't "miss most of the high velocity objects". These things are in elliptical orbits around the sun, and their velocity is determined by Kepler's laws. If they have really high velocity they are on hyperbolic orbits, and nothing to worry about because they are not bound to the solar system. The 10% which havn't been found are either small, or far away. If they are far away it while be a while before they get any closer. But LSST, which has 16 times the collecting area of a single Pan-STARRS telescope, and a survey of much higher cadence, will be good at detecting these. But if you can build an 8 metre wide field telescope plus associated CCD or other detectors and have it ready before 2021, then go right ahead.


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Subject: RE: BS: Space program goals
From: beardedbruce
Date: 03 Jan 17 - 11:16 AM

High velocity as in coming in from the Oort cloud- Those would not be caught as NEO until they come in- and the first pass might be a collision. IMO a "standing watch" for such objects should be put in place.

As for Emdrive, the amazing thing is not how much thrust it produces, but that it DOES produce ANY thrust ( according to the recent articles in peer reviewed journals.

ANY analysis is only as good as the validity of the assumptions. IF ( and it IS a big if) it produces thrust that cannot be explained by errors, then it should be looked at even if it violates some "law"- after all, when analyzed as a fixed wing design, the bumblebee cannot fly. Perhaps there is something we are not aware of- quantum effects, tunneling, etc.

What we don't know we don't know.


" but in order to get an emdrive rocket to take off you would need to put out enough microwaves to cook every living thing for hundreds of miles around."

From what I presently see, this is correct. but if we want to launch
nanotechnology to another star, the total mass may be reasonable (drive plus payload)

I prefer the idea of a Bussard Ramjet (collect interstellar dust and heat it through a fusion reaction)- but the radiation problem is still there, for a living payload And it seems to work only with LARGE masses- the functional fusion units we have now are called "stars". Makes a nice idea for a trans-galactic trip, though.


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Subject: RE: BS: Space program goals
From: David Carter (UK)
Date: 03 Jan 17 - 12:49 PM

As for the Emdrive, the amazing thing is that anybody takes it seriously at all. The thrust produced is entirely consistent with a number of sources of systematic error, such as radiation from some component of the experimental apparatus. See here.

It has been true in the past that new physics has resulted from an unexpected experimental result, notably the Michelson-Morley experiment. But far, far more often experimental error is the explanation. As with faster than light neutrinos recently.


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Subject: RE: BS: Space program goals
From: beardedbruce
Date: 04 Jan 17 - 03:24 PM

But brute force works, too...



http://www.bizjournals.com/losangeles/news/2016/12/30/spacex-unveils-photo-of-falcon-heavy-rocket.html?ana=yahoo&yptr=yahoo

"The rocket's first stage is composed of three Falcon 9 nine-engine cores whose 27 Merlin engines together generate more than 5 million pounds of thrust at liftoff, equal to about 18 747 aircraft. Only the Saturn V moon rocket, last flown in 1973, delivered more payload to orbit.

SpaceX founder Elon Musk has been aiming to build a rocket that will eventually carry people to Mars to form a colony. In September, the billionaire/business mogul said he plans to design a rocket that will take up to 100 people per launch to Mars, with the first flights happening as early as 2023.

"Falcon Heavy was designed from the outset to carry humans into space and restores the possibility of flying missions with crew to the Moon or Mars," SpaceX said on its website."


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Subject: RE: BS: Space program goals
From: Mr Red
Date: 09 Jan 17 - 06:00 AM

Here's another thing to factor in: space debris.

BBC TV prog "the Trouble with Space Junk" last night (available for 30 days).

Yea Yea, they are cataloging billions (literally) of things down to quite small pieces. & the probability of strikes will be low. But when you are talking human life, the repercussions are such that the stakes are sooooo much higher. Your Marsonauts will pass through this debris field.

And it was clearly stated that the logistics are way beyond current computers to predict all of the relevant bits. (It took 12 months to process 14 months data for the bigger items on several supercomputers around the world). then there is all of the bit on bit strikes that will occur over the years, generating ever smaller, more numerous debris that is still significant. Clean-up is not a viable option yet, by a long chalk.

We better get to Mars within a decade, because by 2100 the debris field will be denser. Smaller bits maybe, but kinetic energy rules!


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Subject: RE: BS: Space program goals
From: beardedbruce
Date: 09 Jan 17 - 07:24 AM

There are plans in place to send up garbage sweepers to clear out debris from NEO.


http://www.space.com/24895-space-junk-wild-clean-up-concepts.html


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Subject: RE: BS: Space program goals
From: beardedbruce
Date: 09 Jan 17 - 07:29 AM

and , until recently ( but still under Obama, so no Trump comments please):


https://www.nasa.gov/directorates/spacetech/niac/gregory_space_debris_elimination.html


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Subject: RE: BS: Space program goals
From: beardedbruce
Date: 09 Jan 17 - 07:32 AM

Space debris is not ignored, but again, are we doing enough?



https://nasasearch.nasa.gov/search?query=space+debris&affiliate=nasa&utf8=%E2%9C%93


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Subject: RE: BS: Space program goals
From: David Carter (UK)
Date: 09 Jan 17 - 09:41 AM

ESA have a programme on Space Debris, you can read about it here. Their programme includes Analysis and prediction, Scanning & observing, Re-entry and collision avoidance, Mitigating space debris generation, Debris removal, Hypervelocity impacts and protecting spacecraft and International cooperation. And international cooperation certainly includes with NASA. So although it is reasonable to ask "are we doing enough", the professionals at the space agencies who are best placed to answer this are certainly doing a lot of things.


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Subject: RE: BS: Space program goals
From: beardedbruce
Date: 09 Jan 17 - 02:37 PM

http://www.businessinsider.com/asteroid-flyby-nearer-than-moon-2017-1

"The asteroid, dubbed 2017 AG13, was discovered only Saturday by the University of Arizona's Catalina Sky Survey, according to an email from Slooh, a company that broadcasts live views of space.

It's between 50 and 111 feet (15 to 34 meters) long, and when it swung by Earth, 2017 AG3 was moving at 9.9 miles per second (16 kilometers per second). The near-Earth object, or NEO, came within about half the distance that the moon is from Earth, according to Slooh.

....
Had a porous rock asteroid of 111 feet (34 meters) long hit Earth at a 45-degree angle, the simulator found, it would have exploded as an air burst. The blast would have released about 700 kilotons' worth of energy — dozens of times more powerful than the atomic bomb detonated over Hiroshima."


BTW, the Hiroshima bomb had a yield of 12-18 KT...


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Subject: RE: BS: Space program goals
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 09 Jan 17 - 02:49 PM

Maybe it would have exploded much higher up. Fireworks rather than firestorm.


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Subject: RE: BS: Space program goals
From: David Carter (UK)
Date: 09 Jan 17 - 02:54 PM

700 kilotons is a factor 20 less than Castle Bravo though.


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Subject: RE: BS: Space program goals
From: David Carter (UK)
Date: 09 Jan 17 - 02:58 PM

Plus what Steve said. Tunguska was approximately the same yield equivalent as Castle Bravo, and a third that of Tsar Bomba.


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Subject: RE: BS: Space program goals
From: David Carter (UK)
Date: 09 Jan 17 - 03:01 PM

And 700 kilotons is marginally more than Chelyabinsk, which was estimated to be 20 metres in diameter. So that is pretty much what we would be looking at if that had hit.


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Subject: RE: BS: Space program goals
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 09 Jan 17 - 03:37 PM

Not a nuke either. We worry far too much.


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Subject: RE: BS: Space program goals
From: Iains
Date: 09 Jan 17 - 04:07 PM

The evidence for previous impacts is strong, even if there is a little uncertainty as to exact chronology. These previous impacts occurred in a far less populated and urbanised world. Today increasingly mega cities are situated in the littoral zone and the resulting tsunamis from oceanic impacts would be globally catastrophic. To ignore the very real risk, even if it is low, would be the height of stupidity.

http://elib.sfu-kras.ru/bitstream/handle/2311/1636/03_.pdf;jsessionid=CBA11409F1A8B01C8ADE7E38FDE6754E?sequence=1


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Subject: RE: BS: Space program goals
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 09 Jan 17 - 04:49 PM

Well thank God my house is half a mile inland and a hundred feet above sea level. I promise to dash down and help the dudes in Widemouth Bay should the Big One arrive. I'll start at the Bay View Inn and progress to the Widemouth Manor. Priorities, Stevieboy!


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Subject: RE: BS: Space program goals
From: beardedbruce
Date: 09 Jan 17 - 05:05 PM

The wave expected from a major sea impact is many hundreds of feet, and will go tens to hundreds of miles inland.


At 1300 ft above sea level and many hundreds of miles inland, I'll be hunkering down and hoping my shelter will survive. ( underground basement)


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Subject: RE: BS: Space program goals
From: Iains
Date: 09 Jan 17 - 05:48 PM

The link is quite an old paper and there is, I believe, still dispute as to the height of tsunamis generated by an oceanic impact, and the degree of continental penetration. However the most pessimistic calculations give rise to huge waves so complacency really has no place in the consideration.


http://users.tpg.com.au/users/tps-seti/spacegd7.html#tsunamiimpact


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Subject: RE: BS: Space program goals
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 09 Jan 17 - 06:28 PM

Yebbut the anatomy of tsunamis does not fit your predictions. The water piles up in narrow confines, not along open coastlines. My house at Widemouth will be fine. I wouldn't be so confident about places in the narrow bits further up the Bristol Channel though. Anyway, I shall continue to enjoy life and worry about far more likely events, such as being run over by a Blackpool tram on my next visit to the Golden Mile, which could be some years off. I think a sea view a hundred feet above sea level in a wide bit is a pretty good compromise.


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Subject: RE: BS: Space program goals
From: Joe Offer
Date: 09 Jan 17 - 07:10 PM

My understanding about the threat Trump poses to NASA, is that he threatens NASA's authority to study earth science. Earth science has always been a major part of NASA's research, and it has provided much of what we know about greenhouse gases and global warming and other matters that are anathema to some conservatives. The Conquest of Space is one of those "make America great again" things that are so popular with Trump's supporters, but Earth science isn't sexy to them. So, there may be some trouble on that front.

http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2016/12/grinspoon-trump-nasa-inquiring-minds


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Subject: RE: BS: Space program goals
From: SPB-Cooperator
Date: 10 Jan 17 - 03:28 AM

Pity the goals do not say anything about protecting the well being of the planet we actually live on, its biosphere and humanity? I would not be surprised if Trump already has a business plan to be first in the queue to profit from the commercial opportunities of his proposals.


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Subject: RE: BS: Space program goals
From: Mr Red
Date: 10 Jan 17 - 04:36 AM

"are we doing enough"

NO

but then the logistics of removing space junk are obvious to paint in broad brush strokes, even if hazy. Big items - you can get at. Not easy but imaginable. Paper thin shards of aluminium and their number cannot be measured currently, and finding them needs a satellite, which itself would become junk if it got it wrong. The concepts are easy, the logistics are not.

That's GPS in the garbage some day. But think laterally, and Electronic Engineers have had this vision for 40 years (trust me I am one, I read the publications): LED street lights - their light can carry data. Adverts & location data. It would pay for itself in urban areas. Rural - always lose out IME. Maybe phone masts will cover that, approximately!


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Subject: RE: BS: Space program goals
From: David Carter (UK)
Date: 10 Jan 17 - 04:44 AM

Regarding the first link given by iains, what on earth are a group of people at Australian, Welsh and German universities doing publishing in the journal of the Siberian Federal University? My guess is that they couldn't get it published anywhere that we have heard of. That paper proposes that there was an impact of a 1.6km diameter object in 300m of water, in AD1500, just south of New Zealand. Sorry but I think that there would be other evidence for that. A later paper by James Goff et al. dismisses that hypothesis. Unfortunately you can't read any more than the abstract of that paper without paying Elsevier loads of money.

Don't get me wrong, impacts are a threat, and NASA, ESA and others are right to take the measures they are to catalogue the threats, predict possible impacts, and develop mitigation strategies. But in my view the geological hazards are greater, and if I lived on the east coast of Australia it would be Taupo and related volcanos which I would worry about more. Not to mention Toba on Sumatra.


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Subject: RE: BS: Space program goals
From: Iains
Date: 10 Jan 17 - 05:18 AM

David Carter. What you state is entirely correct. The group do not carry the support of their peers, but that is a lonely furrow ploughed by many others in the past, who have subsequently had their theories accepted. I would not necessarily accept all they say but would certainly keep an open mind and not discount the possibilities outright.
There is a major problem trying to establish any sort of accurate chronology or frequency because oceanic impacts are hard to find and evidence of terrestrial impacts tend to be weathered out in time, also making them hard to find. Just because we have not managed to construct an accurate data base does not give us the confidence to be complacent and say it does not happen. Shoemaker levy's multiple impacts on Jupiter demonstrated very clearly that impacts do occur.
Our problem today is that we have no idea as to frequency, or intensity of possible impacts and as a result of this many do not accept we may have a problem.


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Subject: RE: BS: Space program goals
From: David Carter (UK)
Date: 10 Jan 17 - 09:11 AM

Its really the frequency of future impacts we need to worry about, not past ones. These may be different for a few reasons, including depletion of the stock of NEOs, the changing character of the atmosphere, and also maybe the increasing distance between earth and moon. The last really large impact (with potential global consequences) appears to have been the Eltanin impact about 2.5 million years ago. So the efforts of NASA, ESA and others to calatlogue potential threats is in my view more important than determining the frequency of past events. Which is as you say hard, because even when you find a circular structure, you are hard pushed to pin down the cause.


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Subject: RE: BS: Space program goals
From: Iains
Date: 10 Jan 17 - 10:43 AM

The silverpit structure in the north sea is a prime example. Pull apart structure or impact crater? I would agree that the future possibility of impacts is the major consideration - past impacts are merely an academic consideration, although may give some understanding of future events. It would appear that until recent times the possibility of impacts was largely discounted. That is no longer the case, but our knowledge base leaves much to be desired.


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Subject: RE: BS: Space program goals
From: Iains
Date: 10 Jan 17 - 11:48 AM

Steve you are getting confused between tidal bores and tsunamis. Very different beasts.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1755_Lisbon_earthquake

The tsunami was widespread and did not restrict itself to narrow channels.


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Subject: RE: BS: Space program goals
From: Acme
Date: 10 Jan 17 - 05:59 PM

Let's see if this goes through this time:

David Carter (UK) I was able to download the full text of the paper you cited above. If you'll send your email via PM I'll send it to you.


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Subject: RE: BS: Space program goals
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 10 Jan 17 - 06:50 PM

No confusion this end. Even big tsunamis have very small amplitudes in the open ocean and are generally unnoticed by ships. The wave amplitude and frequency both increase in shallower waters and the effects are far worse still in bays, harbours and in the upper reaches of estuaries where the water piles up. That happened in Lisbon and also in the 1607 Bristol Channel flood. Whether that was a storm surge (the tide was high but the weather was very nice), or, more likely, a tsunami, the effect is just as I described, as you'll see if you look at a map of the areas inundated. Cornwall's north coast (which is where I live) was virtually unaffected, being in the widest part of the Bristol Channel. Upstream, 2000 people drowned. We like to think of ourselves here as being on the ocean's edge, actually. Good surfing but, even miles out, not enough water to submerge Nelson's Column.


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Subject: RE: BS: Space program goals
From: beardedbruce
Date: 11 Jan 17 - 07:38 AM

Mr Shaw,

So you do not consider the continental shelf to be "shallower water" in relation to the rest of the ocean? The wave hitting the shore would be a LOT larger than you think.


An ocean impact ( 75% probabilty) would be more destructive, and have a larger impact, than a land impact. Great analysis back in the 60s-70's (science fact article in Analog).


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Subject: RE: BS: Space program goals
From: beardedbruce
Date: 11 Jan 17 - 08:53 AM

Larger impact as in greater effect on climate and more widespread damage.


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Subject: RE: BS: Space program goals
From: David Carter (UK)
Date: 11 Jan 17 - 09:14 AM

Maybe, Bruce, or maybe not. There is a paper by James Goff et al. on the possible effect of the Eltanin impact on the climate, but its equivocal. As with all of these things, even Chicxulub, there are other factors such as volcanism which need to be taken account of. Its very hard to attribute climate change effects to a single source.


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Subject: RE: BS: Space program goals
From: beardedbruce
Date: 11 Jan 17 - 09:23 AM

Agreed ( but being done at this time by many here) )

You seem to be looking at trying to account for effects of past impacts- I am concerned with the possible effects of a future impact. If the earthquakes that follow said impact kills off the survivors of the impact, that does not mean we should not be looking at ways of preventing the impact itself.

The effects I am discussing are those that WOULD happen in the event of a major impact. The particulate dispersion into the atmosphere, the tsunami effects, the shock wave, the transfer of heat from the c9ollision can all be calculated and modeled- THEY would have a major effect. There would be other effects not now well modeled- volcanoes, crustal motion, etc, but what we KNOW would happen is enough to worry about


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Subject: RE: BS: Space program goals
From: Iains
Date: 11 Jan 17 - 09:29 AM

Steve there may be an amplification effect in Bays, but a lot depends on the point of origin of the wave and cause. Recent work below suggests Cornwall would be most vulnerable from a Lisbon type event.
My view is that a lot more theorising and modelling needs to be done to quantify risk - but in the real world there are probably higher priorities that need funding for research.


http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/2767/1/Tsunamis_assessing_the_hazards.pdf


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Subject: RE: BS: Space program goals
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 11 Jan 17 - 08:54 PM

Well I did a quick shuftie through that lot and found references to one or two-metre waves in western Cornwall. Cor, deadly. Not! Nothing much about our end or further up the Bristol Channel. Mind you, I'm knackered, it's late and I don't feel like wading through the whole of a huge great scientific paper just now and I can't deny I may have missed something. Point me to the relevant bits and we'll get back to it tomorrow.


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Subject: RE: BS: Space program goals
From: Iains
Date: 12 Jan 17 - 08:10 AM

Steve this will be a bit of a wander unfortunately but I have reduced it as much as I can.
The paper I referred to gave a maximum wave height at the lizard, diminishing as it went towards the Severn Estuary. There would seem to be no records of casualties from the Gwent Levels or Somerset Levels from the Lisbon Tsunami, which would comprise the most vulnerable area especially if surging occurred as you suggested. According to Wiki: " Although there is no record of the overall death toll, the 19th century French writer, Arnold Boscowitz, claimed that "great loss of life and property occurred upon the coasts of Cornwall" I do not see that reported anywhere else. Perhaps the surges occurred during the neap tides. I cannot find a way of reconstructing tide tables that far back, sadly.
There are reports that say the waves were seen as far as Galway and the Thames estuary, as well as damage to the south of Portugal and the other side of the Med.
Conversely the meteorological event of On 30 January 1607, around noon, the coasts of Bristol Channel suffered from unexpectedly high floodings that broke the coastal defences in several places. Low-lying places in Devon, Somerset, Gloucestershire, and South Wales were flooded. The devastation was particularly severe on the Welsh side, extending from Laugharne in Carmarthenshire to above Chepstow in Monmouthshire. Cardiff was the most badly affected town, with the foundations of St Mary's Church destroyed.[1]

Floods resulted in the drowning of an estimated 2,000 or more people, with houses and villages swept away, an estimated 200 square miles (51,800 ha) of farmland inundated and livestock destroyed,] wrecking the local economy along the coasts of the Bristol Channel and Severn Estuary.

The coast of Devon and the Somerset Levels as far inland as Glastonbury Tor, 14 miles (23 km) from the coast, were also affected. The sea wall at Burnham-on-Sea gave way, and the water flowed over the low lying levels and moors. Thirty villages in Somerset were affected, including Brean which was "swallowed up" and where seven out of the nine houses were destroyed with 26 of the inhabitants dying. For ten days the Church of All Saints at Kingston Seymour, near Weston-super-Mare, was filled with water to a depth of 5 feet (1.5 m). A chiselled mark remains showing that the maximum height of the water was 7.74 metres above sea level.(courtesy Wiki)

To give this additional perspective:The Severn Estuary is dominated by tidal processes. It has the second highest tides in the world, with an average mean tidal range of 6.5m at neaps and 12.3m on springs. . Tidal range increases further up the estuary, and high spring tides reach as far as Tewkesbury when river flows are low . The Estuary's high tidal range is caused by a combination of factors: an uninterrupted tidal setting for North Atlantic tidal wave propagation, amplification of the wave as it is constrained and converges in the Estuary, and a resonance effect due to its distance from the Atlantic amphidrome . The tidal curve is complicated by geomorphological constrictions and the partial impoundment of the ebb spring tide by the flood spring tide.
Severn bore
Large spring tides commonly lead to the formation of a tidal bore The Severn Estuary is particularly vulnerable to surges because of its orientation and due to its topography and coastal configuration. There is debate over where on the Estuary is most exposed to surges. It may be that the surge level builds as it travels up the estuary and thus threatens the upper reaches more, or that the surge amplitude reduces as water spills out onto the floodplain as it travels, thus affecting the lower reaches more. Thanks to the Severn Estuary's massive tidal range, only extremely large surges or those that occur near high tide have the potential to cause flooding. For example, even a 3m surge would not exceed the mean high water level if it occurred at low or mid tide. The largest recorded surge event on the Severn Estuary was a positive surge of 3.54m, recorded in March 1947 at Avonmouth, but fortunately it occurred at low water on a neap tide,so large scale flooding did not occur .. This was a far larger surge than the 1.45m surge of 1981, which occurred closer to high tide and caused extensive flooding along the north Somerset coast.
Storms
.
The Severn Estuary is particularly vulnerable to Atlantic storms because of its topography and coastal configuration, orientation with respect to prevailing winds, and tidal setting, which together enhance surge heights from storms tracking east and north eastward .

If the event of 1607 was a Tsunami rather than a meteorolgical event several things do not make sense.
The effect was very localised. This surely rules out Tsunami. The reported casualty rate was very high but there are no reports of damage elsewhere, or casualties. This strongly suggests a storm surge.
The Lisbon earthquake created damage on a continental scale(at least)
yet the effects were far more subdued than the event of 1607, that was both localised and of far greater severity.
   My conclusion is that as it stands there are too many assumptions and a woeful inadaquacy of hard data. I would say in conclusion that since the Storegga Slide storm surges have presented the UK with a far greater risk than tsunamis.


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Subject: RE: BS: Space program goals
From: beardedbruce
Date: 17 Jan 17 - 04:42 PM

http://www.sfgate.com/news/science-environment/article/NASA-to-explore-asteroid-made-of-10-000-10860219.php?ipid=articlerecirc&c

"Death Star in NASA image

Enticingly, the mission's lead scientist has put a price tag of $10,000 quadrillion on the asteroid, known as "16 Psyche.""


World GDP is about $74 trillion. This rock represents 135,000 years of GDP


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Subject: RE: BS: Space program goals
From: beardedbruce
Date: 18 Jan 17 - 04:33 PM

http://www.cnn.com/2017/01/18/health/space-junk-2017-cassini/index.html


More on the topic of dealing with space debris.


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Subject: RE: BS: Space program goals
From: beardedbruce
Date: 25 Jan 17 - 12:33 PM

Less than 3 weeks ago, while America was getting the kids to school and arriving at work, an asteroid the size of a building slipped past Earth from a distance about halfway to the moon.

Now a similar space rock is about to zoom by our helpless planet.

The new near-Earth object (NEO), dubbed asteroid 2017 BX, was only discovered a few days ago, on Friday, January 20. It's slated to swing by Tuesday night at 11:54 p.m. ET at a distance of about 162,000 miles (261,000 kilometers) — roughly two-thirds the way to the moon.



https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/asteroid-slip-between-earth-moon-194700234.html


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Subject: RE: BS: Space program goals
From: Iains
Date: 25 Jan 17 - 12:48 PM

Facts courtesy of NASA:
Every day, Earth is bombarded with more than 100 tons of dust and sand-sized particles.

About once a year, an automobile-sized asteroid hits Earth's atmosphere, creates an impressive fireball, and burns up before reaching the surface.

Every 2,000 years or so, a meteoroid the size of a football field hits Earth and causes significant damage to the area.

Only once every few million years, an object large enough to threaten Earth's civilization comes along. Impact craters on Earth, the moon and other planetary bodies are evidence of these occurrences.

Space rocks smaller than about 25 meters (about 82 feet) will most likely burn up as they enter the Earth's atmosphere and cause little or no damage.

If a rocky meteoroid larger than 25 meters but smaller than one kilometer ( a little more than 1/2 mile) were to hit Earth, it would likely cause local damage to the impact area.

We believe anything larger than one to two kilometers (one kilometer is a little more than one-half mile) could have worldwide effects. At 5.4 kilometers in diameter, the largest known potentially hazardous asteroid is Toutatis.


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Subject: RE: BS: Space program goals
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 25 Jan 17 - 02:16 PM

Would it matter if it were as flat and thin as a football field?

These may be facts after a fashion but they are really no more than statistical probabilities. It's just as much a fact to state that a football field could hit us today and another football field could hit us tomorrow. Return period-style facts are not very illuminating, frankly. I live in hope that no football field will strike before the end of Liverpool's game at Anfield tonight. Well, at least as it doesn't hit Anfield. I wouldn't object if it struck Old Trafford as long as the stadium was empty at the time. Even I'm not that nasty to the poor unfortunates who call themselves "United fans."


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Subject: RE: BS: Space program goals
From: Iains
Date: 25 Jan 17 - 02:25 PM

I see the resident Mudcat pedant strikes again. Must be bored with the other threads.


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Subject: RE: BS: Space program goals
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 25 Jan 17 - 02:33 PM

Since when has pointing out what "facts" means to a chap struggling with popular science been pedantry? You seem to have joined the Teribus school of kneejerk.


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Subject: RE: BS: Space program goals
From: Iains
Date: 25 Jan 17 - 02:44 PM

Mr Shaw
I suggest you take the argument up with NASA, it is their wording I copied.


https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/asteroids/overview/fastfacts.html


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Subject: RE: BS: Space program goals
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 25 Jan 17 - 05:24 PM

I'm not quibbling with NASA's presentation. I'm quibbling with your misinterpretation. "Facts courtesy of NASA." Remember?


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Subject: RE: BS: Space program goals
From: Iains
Date: 26 Jan 17 - 03:21 AM

No Mr Shaw you are trying to provoke argument. Your constant nitpicking adds nothing to the debate, go troll elsewhere. Many of us can see through your pathetic tactics. If you wish to argue semantics go take it up with those who wrote the article I linked to. This I suggested earlier but you fixation on scoring some sort of points blinds you to this suggestion. You Sir, are an idiot.


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Subject: RE: BS: Space program goals
From: Mr Red
Date: 26 Jan 17 - 05:29 AM

Al this talk of aiming for asteroids and Mars is academic right now. The two powers most likely to spearhead any assault on a airless desert have bigger targets of their own. Putin and world domination, Trump and all that he thinks is worthy of calling the world and its domination.

Basically if there ain't no monetary payback from anything in their lifetime (30 years at best (worst)) then they can't see it.

If space pays, it gets the nod. Blue skies projects won't. For at least the next 4 years. And that will put any endeavour back more than 4 years.


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Subject: RE: BS: Space program goals
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 26 Jan 17 - 05:59 AM

My first response to your NASA post, at 2.16 yesterday, was civil. Not only that, it addressed your post quite closely. Since then I've received a tirade of insults and defensiveness from you. You have a track record of demonstrating insecurity and defensiveness when you are pressed on some of the statements you make. You have my view, stated clearly, on the limited usefulness of return-period statistics. You attacked me because I challenged your appeal to NASA authority. Too bad. Show some spine, man, and take on the argument if you have enough conviction.


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Subject: RE: BS: Space program goals
From: beardedbruce
Date: 26 Jan 17 - 09:16 AM

"Basically if there ain't no monetary payback from anything in their lifetime (30 years at best (worst)) then they can't see it."

Please see my post of : 17 Jan 17 - 04:42 PM

Enough payback??? ONE asteroid, and not a large one.


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Subject: RE: BS: Space program goals
From: David Carter (UK)
Date: 26 Jan 17 - 09:38 AM

That incredibly fanciful number may come from converting the mass of the asteroid (which is a large one) into cash at current scrap metal prices. You can't do that, there is no demand for that much scrap metal. It would be saturating the market many (quadrillion?) times over.

There are various video games you can play which involve mining asteroids for resources, and loads of science fiction films, books and TV series going back to the 1940s. But its not going to happen in 30 years, probably not even 300 years.


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Subject: RE: BS: Space program goals
From: beardedbruce
Date: 26 Jan 17 - 10:08 AM

Actually, there are groups working on it now, for use in 15-20 years. To build structures in space, it is much more cost effective to use resources that do not need to be lifted out of a gravity well.


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Subject: RE: BS: Space program goals
From: Mr Red
Date: 26 Jan 17 - 03:58 PM

Enough payback??? ONE asteroid, and not a large one.

the total cost of getting to it, and bringing back the goods, in a 30 year timeframe. Negative PAL. Big negative.

Near Earth misses are a more pressing problem. But maybe in 30 years we will have a plan, and won't need it. After that we will have forgotten Chelyabinsk, it didn't happen near here! And Tunguska - well that was so long ago and probably hurt no-one - they think.

Methinks them thar asteeeeroids is gonna come to us, lets wait a while. And maybe, just maybe, the dust clouds will sort global warming for a year or two.


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Subject: RE: BS: Space program goals
From: Iains
Date: 26 Jan 17 - 05:29 PM

It is much easier to wait for the asteroids to impact and mine the resulting debris.
As an example the link below was a large bolide impact that created a 100-kilometre diameter crater approximately 35 million years ago during the late Eocene epoch.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Popigai_crater

It is also postulated that the Sudbury nickel complex is an impact structure, produced by the impact of a bolide . The impact could have caused fracturing in the crust and generated magma in the deep crust which then filled the impact-crater producing the rocks of the igneous complex.Recent research suggests a comet may have been the cause not an asteroid.
As can be seen by the size of the impact sites, the collateral damage would be worldwide and cause catastrophic extinction.


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Subject: RE: BS: Space program goals
From: David Carter (UK)
Date: 27 Jan 17 - 02:08 PM

Mr Red: near earth misses are not a pressing problem. Would would be a problem would be earth hits. And to work out whether they would be a problem you need to know where the asteroids are. Beardedbruce seems to think nobody is doing anything about this, but this is wrong. Take for example the largest asteroid threat, from the list given by Iains. This is called Toutatis. We know where this is. We know where it is going to be. And for the next 600 years, the probability that its orbit will intersect earth is zero.

Chelyabinsk, we might forget that but it will happen again. Big flash in the sky, some windows get broken.

Tunguska, well if something like that happened over a city, big problem for that city. But most of the world isn't cities.

The only problem that we cannot predict or prepare for is long period comets. One thing about these is that their orbits tend not to lie in the ecliptic, as opposed to the orbits of asteroids and periodic comets, which do). Which vastly reduces the probability that these orbits will intersect earth.


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Subject: RE: BS: Space program goals
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 27 Jan 17 - 03:16 PM

The voice of sanity, David! 👏🏼👏🏼👏🏼


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Subject: RE: BS: Space program goals
From: Donuel
Date: 27 Jan 17 - 09:21 PM

WOO HOO a new metal is made on Earth

Metallic Hydrogen https://phys.org/news/2017-01-metallic-hydrogen-theory-reality.html

I want a light weight sports car made of hydrogen

But as material science goes this is the holy grail

no electricity loss, magnetic applications, MORE

But like carbon fullerenes - it comes in small quantitie

for now


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Subject: RE: BS: Space program goals
From: David Carter (UK)
Date: 28 Jan 17 - 06:02 AM

Hold on just a while Donuel, the Dias and Silvera result has been disputed by others, and they have not yet been able to replicate it themselves. Lets see what the next few months brings on this topic.


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Subject: RE: BS: Space program goals
From: beardedbruce
Date: 09 Feb 17 - 12:35 PM

More on the topic of space goals:


http://www.politico.com/story/2017/02/donald-trump-space-war-234829


"The Trump administration is considering a bold and controversial vision for the U.S. space program that calls for a "rapid and affordable" return to the moon by 2020, the construction of privately operated space stations and the redirection of NASA's mission to "the large-scale economic development of space," according to internal documents obtained by POLITICO.

The proposed strategy, whose potential for igniting a new industry appeals to Trump's business background and job-creation pledges, is influencing the White House's search for leaders to run the space agency. And it is setting off a struggle for supremacy between traditional aerospace contractors and the tech billionaires who have put big money into private space ventures.

"It is a big fight," said former Republican Rep. Robert Walker of Pennsylvania, who drafted the Trump campaign's space policy and remains involved in the deliberations. "There are billions of dollars at stake. It has come to a head now when it has become clear to the space community that the real innovative work is being done outside of NASA."

The early indications are that private rocket firms like Elon Musk's SpaceX and Jeff Bezos' Blue Origin and their supporters have a clear upper hand in what Trump's transition advisers portrayed as a race between "Old Space" and "New Space," according to emails among key players inside the administration. Trump has met with Bezos and Musk, while tech investor Peter Thiel, a close confidant, has lobbied the president to look at using NASA to help grow the private space industry.

Charles Miller, a former NASA official who served on Trump's NASA transition team after running a commercial space cargo firm, is pushing for the White House to nominate a deputy administrator who foremost "shares the same goal/overall vision of transforming NASA by leveraging commercial space partnerships," according to a Jan. 23 communication. That deputy would run the space program's day-to-day operations.

Trump has yet to name a NASA director, but the documents confirm that Rep. Jim Bridenstine, a Republican from Oklahoma and former Navy pilot who ran the Tulsa Air and Space Museum, is a top contender. "


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Subject: RE: BS: Space program goals
From: Greg F.
Date: 09 Feb 17 - 03:08 PM

So the Hump administration is corporatize, privatize and anything for a buck.

What a shock!


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Subject: RE: BS: Space program goals
From: robomatic
Date: 10 Feb 17 - 01:25 PM

Grew up reading such stuff as The Man Who Sold the Moon by Heinlein and other stories that would have me believing that by the time I was all grown up (NOW) we'd be well on our way to other planets. We have failed to live up to these aspirations and I maintain that if we'd spent a lot more time and money on space travel and habitation, we'd have spent a lot less of it on foolishness like wars and the ennoblement of the glitterati. More engineers and less rappers.

Maybe fewer folkers, but more filkers, so it'd balance out.


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Subject: RE: BS: Space program goals
From: Bee-dubya-ell
Date: 10 Feb 17 - 01:31 PM

I think space programs are invaluable. Without a program, you can't tell one heavenly body from another.


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Subject: RE: BS: Space program goals
From: robomatic
Date: 10 Feb 17 - 03:02 PM

There is much to do and we should be doing it ASAP: There are Four Primary Breakdowns:

EARTH - MOON
Aurora
Van Allen Belt
Earth Magnetic Field
Predict and avoid large meteorites and solar flares (EMPs)

SOLAR SYSTEM
Understand Solar System History
Understand Asteroid Belt
Explore planetary moons
Orbital and robotic data collection from each planet
Explain dichotomy between gas giants and medium 'boulder' planets

SUN - SOLAR PHENOMENA
Sun Cycle of 11 years w sunspots
Solar Flares

DEEP SPACE - INTERSTELLAR
Black Holes
Quasars
Radiogalaxies
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Subject: RE: BS: Space program goals
From: Greg F.
Date: 10 Feb 17 - 06:06 PM

Jaysus, we can't be wasting time on thet scientific crap - point is to make ginormous piles of MONEY!!

Pres. Hump'll explain it ta yer....


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Mudcat time: 22 September 7:04 PM EDT

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