BS: Iraq: Report of The Smoking Gun

Subject: BS: Iraq: Report of The Smoking Gun
From: Amos
Date: 03 Feb 03 - 08:06 PM

I am sorry to say that there is now an authoritative-sounding report of underground bnunkers of Bio and Chem weapons as well as undisclosed hidden chem weapons production facilities and SCUD assembly plants in Iraq to be found at this Australian newspaper. I have no supplementary data about the reliability of the story, but the story states that a senior bodyguard has defected from the Iraqi "Inner Circle" and spilled his guts.

This seems terribly convenient, and I have to wonder how much it cost, or whether it is genuinely what it seems to be.

A

Link fixed
joe clone

Subject: RE: BS: Iraq: Report of The Smoking Gun
From: NicoleC
Date: 03 Feb 03 - 08:44 PM

Hmmm. One thing I've noticed about the Herald Sun over the years, is that they often print the news first... but they also print a lot of retractions. The risk of trying to always get the scoop.

There are several inconsistancies in the story as printed, and I'm awfully suspicious of the timing, too, Amos. If his statements are true, however, there are good leads for the inspectors. I absolutely don't think this guy should be taken at his word -- if we see the US attack without UN verification, it'll probably be safe to say he's a plant. But if the inspectors do go in and find those bunkers -- well, that'd be awfully hard to pass of as "planted" evidence.

Subject: RE: BS: Iraq: Report of The Smoking Gun
From: Amos
Date: 03 Feb 03 - 08:52 PM

Yeah -- it's kinda hard to plant a four-inch-thick concrete wall -- you can't just slip it in there. But we will have to see whether this alleged Inner Circle guy being "debriefed" in Israel adds up to real evidence or what --- as you say. Big "if" there...


A

Subject: RE: BS: Iraq: Report of The Smoking Gun
From: Alice
Date: 03 Feb 03 - 08:54 PM

I am not surprised that Iraq has the weapons that the UN is trying to find and disarm. The report Iraq gave did not show what happened to the weapons that they had years ago. My concern is that disarmament of Iraq should be done through as much diplomacy and negotiation as possible, yet military action and loud ranting from our US administration has just caused more defensiveness and paranoia in Iraq. It reminds me of how the government dealt with the Branch Davidians in Waco. They could have disarmed the cult quietly but instead blasted them with too much force, causing the cult to be even more paranoid and defensive. When people like Saddam are threatened (a ruthless cult leader, really) it makes them even more paranoid.

Subject: RE: BS: Iraq: Report of The Smoking Gun
From: Bobert
Date: 03 Feb 03 - 08:57 PM

Yeah, Amos, looks real bad. According to the National Observer, Saddam's mother was an alien. Bad day for Saddam all around. And like saddam has chemical weapons? Say it ain't so! Do they make that big mushrrom cloud over us like Condi Rice said? Owwww, Iz scared now. If ya' all don't see me around, I'll be under the bed....

Bobert

Subject: RE: BS: Iraq: Report of The Smoking Gun
From: CarolC
Date: 03 Feb 03 - 09:44 PM

I can't get into the link you posted, Amos.

Subject: RE: BS: Iraq: Report of The Smoking Gun
From: CarolC
Date: 03 Feb 03 - 09:45 PM

Maybe they've retracted already.

;-)

Subject: RE: BS: Iraq: Report of The Smoking Gun
From: GUEST
Date: 03 Feb 03 - 10:13 PM

Timing is everything in the propaganda game.

Subject: RE: BS: Iraq: Report of The Smoking Gun
From: Amos
Date: 04 Feb 03 - 08:56 AM

Still works from here, Carol. The URL is:

http://www.heraldsun.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,5478,5921220%5E663,00.html

Here it is again.

A

Subject: RE: BS: Iraq: Report of The Smoking Gun
From: Teribus
Date: 04 Feb 03 - 09:03 AM

Thanks for the post Amos.

It would be interesting to know some of the dates relating to this story, but I suppose they will be some time in coming. By dates I mean:

1. Date of original contact

2. Date of defection

3. Date of release of information to the US intelligence services

4. Date of release to media.

If true, I hope the guys family are out of there and safe.

Subject: RE: BS: Iraq: Report of The Smoking Gun
From: Wolfgang
Date: 04 Feb 03 - 10:36 AM

Colin Powell still says we should not expect too much from his UN appearance tomorrow. If someone has the informations and they are as good and accurate as pictured in the newspaper I have difficulties to understand why they are not made public.

Interesting but far from convincing yet.

Wolfgang

Subject: RE: BS: Iraq: Report of The Smoking Gun
From: An Pluiméir Ceolmhar
Date: 04 Feb 03 - 12:19 PM

Since even the White House is redefining the smoking gun (as Wolfgang points out), this article just sounds like a bit of freelance "throwing babies out of incubators" stuff.

Subject: RE: BS: Iraq: Report of The Smoking Gun
From: NicoleC
Date: 04 Feb 03 - 12:54 PM

That's been my complaint all along -- we keep hearing about supposed "evidence," but the evidence is not being presented. Even assuming it has the potential to cause problems if it's been made public, it really needs to be given to the inspectors in detail so they can do a better job.

The White House is now insisting that Saddam has to prove he DOESN'T have weapons, and the inspectors don't matter. You can't prove a negative -- there's no way. Does this remind anyone of a witch hunt -- gee, if you die when we drown you, that means you were innocent. So sorry!

Subject: RE: BS: Iraq: Report of The Smoking Gun
From: Bobert
Date: 04 Feb 03 - 01:14 PM

That's the problem with bluffing, Nicole. All it takes is for someone to call you on it and you are caught. All along, the Bush has been promising "evidence" and giving mus dates for which the "evidence" would be made public. Then two days bfore that date we get the same PR crap about, "Well, you don't have to have proof to have evidence?" And then they spin the same old suppositions around with a few new tax payer purchased "buzz words" which convince no one at all. And then they satrt the entire process again. They must think that the planet is inhabited by a bunch of dimwits and morons.

For the 10,000th time. They ain't got nuthin'! They know it! And just as importantly, most every else knows it! Except Doug and Teribus, of course. And I'm not too sure about T 'cause T just likes to argue. So that leaves my pal, Dougie.

Bobert

Subject: RE: BS: Iraq: Report of The Smoking Gun
From: GUEST,Arne Langsetmo
Date: 04 Feb 03 - 02:34 PM

An "Australian newspaper", eh? One of Rupert Murdoch's
rags, you know. . . .

Cheers,

                              -- Arne Langsetmo

Subject: RE: BS: Iraq: Report of The Smoking Gun
From: TIA
Date: 04 Feb 03 - 02:54 PM

The US mandate is perfectly clear...If the inspectors find something, Iraq has violated UN resolutions and we must ATTACK. If the inspectors find nothing, Iraq is not cooperating, and we must ATTACK.

(There's a whole lot of smoke around, but I don't think it's from a gun...I think someone's blowing it up my arse).

Subject: RE: BS: Iraq: Report of The Smoking Gun
From: Don Firth
Date: 04 Feb 03 - 03:29 PM

Whenever Hitler was about to launch a new war of aggression, he would accuse his opponents of atrocities that never happened. These lies would be repeated over and over again by official spokesmen and the press. The Nazi government would then launch a pre-planned attack. This Hitler technique is called the "Big Lie." Hitler maintained that "No matter how unlikely a lie may sound, if you tell it loud enough and often enough, people will believe it."

After Nayirah, the young Kuwaiti nurse who tearfully gave a detailed testimony that she had witnessed first-hand Iraqi soldiers yanking babies out of incubators at the al-Adden hospital, turned out not to be a nurse at all, but the daughter of Saud Nasir al-Sabah, Kuwait's Ambassador to the U.S., who had been carefully coached by flacks from Hill & Knowlton, the PR firm that has handled a number of Republican political campaigns, and that the story was a complete fabrication, is it any wonder that I'm skeptical of any sudden revelations of this kind?

I am not convinced that the "Big Lie" machine is not going full speed once again. The government has long since squandered any credibility it ever had. Honestly, I'm not really sure what they could come up with that would make me believe them. And whose fault is that?

Don Firth

Subject: RE: BS: Iraq: Report of The Smoking Gun
From: NicoleC
Date: 04 Feb 03 - 07:37 PM

Saddam Speaks -- full text of BBC interview

Subject: RE: BS: Iraq: Report of The Smoking Gun
From: Alice
Date: 04 Feb 03 - 07:51 PM

If the inspectors find weapons, the weapons must be destroyed - that doesn't mean we must have a military attack. The point is to keep looking as long as it takes to find all the weapons and destroy them. As long as inspectors are still in Iraq, we must support that process. The longer the inspections are allowed to work, the greater possibility Iraq can be disarmed without bloodshed.

Subject: RE: BS: Iraq: Report of The Smoking Gun
From: toadfrog
Date: 04 Feb 03 - 09:08 PM

Here is another SITE with a similar report. And here is another one. And here is yet another, which not only discloses the Abu Hamdi smoking gun, but further shows that it signals the onset of APOCALYPSE!

And yet, something tells me, some of this information might not be reliable.

Subject: RE: BS: Iraq: Report of The Smoking Gun
From: Barry Finn
Date: 04 Feb 03 - 09:32 PM

It's easy enough to send the inspectors to these sites. The eve just prior to showing the world some evidence, 13th hour bullshit, how well timed. I guess a few tapped phone calls made by my mother & some snapshots of her driving her mobil home looked a little to shabby. At this point Bush/Powell should've stronged my sister & made my brother an offer he couldn't refuse. They'll tell him anything he'd like to hear. Danmed if you do & danmed if you don't. It's no wonder Powell doesn't want to keep his job, not only will he be the fall guy if things go sour, he'll be the asshole who tried to shovel this shit down the throats of people all over the world. Hard cross to bare. Worst when you can see it coming & know it's to late, the train already left the station. Barry

Subject: RE: BS: Iraq: Report of The Smoking Gun
From: Bobert
Date: 04 Feb 03 - 09:40 PM

This crapola by the Bush warmongers makes the Gulf of Tonkin look more like Pearl Harbor.

Beam my boney Wes Ginny butt up...

Bobert

Subject: RE: BS: Iraq: Report of The Smoking Gun
From: GUEST
Date: 04 Feb 03 - 11:30 PM

Who knows what to belive. I've seen no reports confirming Amos's post in the UK but this has just turned up at the BBC web site.

Jon

Subject: RE: BS: Iraq: Report of The Smoking Gun
From: Teribus
Date: 05 Feb 03 - 06:22 AM

Thanks Nicole for the link to the Tony Benn/Saddam Hussein interview.

Having read it through - Just one question - who believes him?

Reading down through this thread I see the misconception that the UNMOVIC Inspection Teams are in Iraq to "find" weapons is maintained. They are there to verify beyond any doubt that the Iraqi's have disarmed - there is one hell of a difference.

Subject: RE: BS: Iraq: Report of The Smoking Gun
From: DougR
Date: 05 Feb 03 - 08:58 AM

I don't suppose most of you folks would accept evidence if it was relayed to you via private briefing from Secretary Powell himself. You would still be suspicious, and certain that you were being lied to. Therefore, why bother looking up stories that are contrary to what you are certain are facts? Play music or something constructive!

It will be interesting to read posts on this thread after Secretary Powell makes his report to the UN Council today. I believe I could write them in advance of the speech. All I would have to do is review remarks from similar threads over the past few months and reproduce them.

DougR

Subject: RE: BS: Iraq: Report of The Smoking Gun
From: Richie
Date: 05 Feb 03 - 09:20 AM

I think Powell will establish ties between Abu Musaab and Saddam. It's clear Saddam has from the very start has lied and deceived about his use of Chemical and biological weapons.

It's too bad the world won't unite against Saddam so we could get him out peacefully. He could be forced into exile which seems to be the only resonable solution. Only intense unified international pressure could accomplish this.

Maybe the people that support Saddam will cause a war.

-Richie

Subject: RE: BS: Iraq: Report of The Smoking Gun
From: Amos
Date: 05 Feb 03 - 09:38 AM

DougR:

It is ordinary sense to mistrust stories from a known liar. I consider the Resident such a person. I consider Saddam such a person. Why the hell should I accept anything either of them does at face value? As for the story about the defecting senior bodyguard ratting on Saddam's hidden munitions, it could be completely accurate. It could be a false story floated in support of bloodthirst. It really depends on where it actually came from and whether he is a bought piece or just what he seems to be.

Both conditions have been known to emanate from the Shite House in the past. It I reserve the right of critical analyisis on any life or death matter, even if I don't use i very well! :>)

A

Subject: RE: BS: Iraq: Report of The Smoking Gun
From: Teribus
Date: 05 Feb 03 - 10:30 AM

Could be a third explanation Amos:

This guy has defected and the information "leaked" could be a kite flying exercise to monitor what reaction it provokes.

I note, so far a resounding silence with regard to UNMOVIC Teams rushing to the locations mentioned.

The mental picture it provides is similar to the scenes from commedian Michael Bentines "Its a Square World" series of programmes from years ago - sand models where you see the sand moving as indications of frantic activity, but you can't see any people.

Subject: RE: BS: Iraq: Report of The Smoking Gun
From: nickp
Date: 05 Feb 03 - 10:39 AM

Well, while I think the world would probably be a bit better without Saddam, I'm still waiting for Bush and Blair to provide detailed lists of all THEIR weapons of mass destruction etc.... Did anyone REALLY think we'd be told about it all, regardless of the threats?

Much as I don't like the idea I reckon there'll be a lot of "guns smoking" on all sides. Hope we don't regret it.

Nick

Subject: RE: BS: Iraq: Report of The Smoking Gun
From: Teribus
Date: 05 Feb 03 - 11:10 AM

nickp - re: Bush and Blair WMD - nothing simpler - just go google and search for anything related to strategic arms limitation, disarmament treaties, etc.

That America and Britain have nuclear weapons is no secret.

Subject: RE: BS: Iraq: Report of The Smoking Gun
From: CarolC
Date: 05 Feb 03 - 11:20 AM

They are there to verify beyond any doubt that the Iraqi's have disarmed - there is one hell of a difference.

I note, so far a resounding silence with regard to UNMOVIC Teams rushing to the locations mentioned.

Here you go, Teribus... the UNMOVIC Teams rush to the sites that were named and veryfy beyond any doubt that there are no weapons there. If they find any weapons there, then we'll know Saddam hasn't disarmed, and the inspectors will have done their job.

If you or the Bush administration were really interested in a peaceful solution to this situation, you and they wouldn't be using such a "lawyerly" definition of the inspectors' job. Reminds me of the famous Clinton line about "depends on what the definition of 'is' is".

Subject: RE: BS: Iraq: Report of The Smoking Gun
From: nickp
Date: 05 Feb 03 - 11:40 AM

Teribus - very true. But I wonder how much both are hiding. Whoever has any, it's too much. Sadly I suppose we have to live with it.

Subject: RE: BS: Iraq: Report of The Smoking Gun
From: Beccy
Date: 05 Feb 03 - 12:01 PM

DougR- I think, my man, that you are fighting a lonely battle. I'm with ye, but I haven't the time to back you up. To those who already believe, no proof is necessary. To those who do not believe, no proof is sufficient.
Keep it up.

Subject: RE: BS: Iraq: Report of The Smoking Gun
From: CarolC
Date: 05 Feb 03 - 12:06 PM

To those who already believe, no proof is necessary. To those who do not believe, no proof is sufficient.

And for the rest of us, reasonable prudence is what is required.

Subject: RE: BS: Iraq: Report of The Smoking Gun
From: TIA
Date: 05 Feb 03 - 12:10 PM

Please show us the proof and let us decide if it is sufficient!
If, once we see it, we dogmatically ignore it, then Beccy is right.
But where the heck is it?

Subject: RE: BS: Iraq: Report of The Smoking Gun
From: Beccy
Date: 05 Feb 03 - 12:10 PM

CarolC- Do you imply that those of us who believe Saddam needs to be removed have not been reasonably prudent in coming to our decision?

Subject: RE: BS: Iraq: Report of The Smoking Gun
From: Beccy
Date: 05 Feb 03 - 12:12 PM

TIA- I'm right about what? I simply told DougR that he seemed to be outnumbered and that I agree with a few things he's said.

Subject: RE: BS: Iraq: Report of The Smoking Gun
From: Kaleb
Date: 05 Feb 03 - 12:14 PM

To those who believe, no proof is necessary.

Someone I work with, someone with a wife and a 6 year old son is in the army reserves and is on his way to Kuwait right now. You'd better believe that proof is necessary. Necessary for me and necessary for anyone with friends and family who's lives are at risk so that G.W. can play warrior.


Kaleb

Subject: RE: BS: Iraq: Report of The Smoking Gun
From: CarolC
Date: 05 Feb 03 - 12:16 PM

I think "believe" would be the operative word here, Beccy. In the case of waging a war of aggression (first strike) against another country, especially if we don't have a UN resolution giving us the go-ahead (which we may get, but we don't have yet), we need to have a lot more than "belief" as our basis for such action.

Subject: RE: BS: Iraq: Report of The Smoking Gun
From: Amos
Date: 05 Feb 03 - 12:16 PM

CarolC:

There really is a big substantial difference. A disarming nation is expected to be proactive in demonstration of their disarmament. This model was established as expected practice by South Africa when they voluntarily completely disassembled their nuclear program.

It is obvious that forcing the inspectors to play hide-and-go-seek is a hypocritical stance for a government that has avowed they will cooperate with inspections and disarmament. No matter how many inspectors the UN fields, they have a territory the size of California to look at and there is no way they can succeed in the face of dedicated deception. That's the concern.

That said, I must concur that there are far too few approaches seeking a peaceful solution being taken. Bush's warmongering is the ugliest thing I have ever seen coming out of a government person in my life.

Beccy: I think your remarks are a tad unfair. After all, I generally am very skeptical of Bush's rhetoric, as any citizen should be, but when it appeared there was a genuine factual story supporting his claims I posted the information promptly. It is not the case that "no proof is sufficient". It is the case that no proof has been provided. It is the case, in my own mind anyway, that the burden of proof needed to act as a casus belli, and justify the destruction of human lives, families and property on a wholesale basis (which we are warming up to commit) is an extraordinary burden of proof.

Rhetorical pictures, no matter how vivid, are inadequate grounds for murder.

A

A

Subject: RE: BS: Iraq: Report of The Smoking Gun
From: TIA
Date: 05 Feb 03 - 12:23 PM

Beccy - where you "right" to characterize those who do not yet believe in the coming (maybe) war as having already made up their minds no matter what evidence might be presented?

If you did not mean to imply that, I stand corrected and apologize.

Subject: RE: BS: Iraq: Report of The Smoking Gun
From: CarolC
Date: 05 Feb 03 - 12:23 PM

All such differences aside, Amos, I, personally, favor letting the inspectors decide what is needed in order for them to do their job, rather than having it dictated to them by the Bush and Blair administrations, or by Teribus even.

Subject: RE: BS: Iraq: Report of The Smoking Gun
From: InOBU
Date: 05 Feb 03 - 12:24 PM

I am a little hard to convince about amorphos evidence. We all remember the hard evidence used to extradict Leonard Pelitier, all of which turned out to be out right lies. Cheers, Larry

Subject: RE: BS: Iraq: Report of The Smoking Gun
From: TIA
Date: 05 Feb 03 - 12:29 PM

Okay, let's say he's got WMD. Can he maintain, arm, aim and fire them if he has to constantly keep trucking them on the sly from hidden bunker to hidden bunker. Sure, it'll keep the UN inspectors busy for years to come, but the man is mortal, and we'd have hundreds of thousands of troops there for years to come if we invade. Forget all morality issues, isn't 10 (or 20, or more) years of cat and mouse easier and cheaper than war?

Subject: RE: BS: Iraq: Report of The Smoking Gun
From: Wolfgang
Date: 05 Feb 03 - 12:33 PM

Tony Benn as an interviewer is a serious miscast.

Wolfgang

Subject: RE: BS: Iraq: Report of The Smoking Gun
From: Amos
Date: 05 Feb 03 - 12:45 PM

An intersting take on one solution for peaceful resolution that IS being pursued in Time's presentation of the Saudi scheme:


""Our idea," Saud added, "is to transform the military effort of the United Nations from a military effort that seeks to occupy, that seeks to inflict pain on Iraq, into an effort that is aimed at guaranteeing the security and territorial integrity of Iraq. The essential part of it is for the Iraqi government to [continue to] be a functioning government, to allow for a peaceful transition."

A

Subject: RE: BS: Iraq: Report of The Smoking Gun
From: Wolfgang
Date: 05 Feb 03 - 01:41 PM

Well, none (as far as I know) of our national press (or radio/TV) did report the story from the first link. If they did believe it (or at least considered it possible) they would have reported on it. Gordon Thomas (the author) would be interviewed, Colin Powell would not have failed to mention it.

In my search, I have found another bodyguard defector revealing weapon location secrets. So if you want to read about another disgruntled bodyguard (this one was sacked!) with another name telling a different story about weapons at a different date and nobody really is listening to him
go here

It stinks.

Wolfgang

Subject: RE: BS: Iraq: Report of The Smoking Gun
From: DougR
Date: 06 Feb 03 - 12:47 AM

Amos, and other doubters of Secretary Powells veracity: What more proof do you need? First, let's determine what you are looking for:
1. That Saddam has weapons of mass destruction? If so, do you think that the world should just shrug it's shoulders and say, "ok, he has them, what the hey?"

2. Do you doubt Saddam would use the weapons if he had them? Are you willing to take that chance? He has used them before. Do you think he has suddenly found religion?

3. No evidence was presented today that Saddam has an atomic bomb. Evidence was presented that Iraq was working on one in the early 1990's. Any reason to believe that Saddam would abandon his efforts to develop one (particularly since there were no inspections for the past four years)? Would it be okay with you folks (Amos et al) if he had an atomic bomb?

Carol C: I think you are woefully uninformed about UN Resolution 1441 if you think an additonal Resolution is necessary for the UN to take military action against Iraq if the Security Council finds them in material breach of 1441.

There probably WILL be an additonal Resolution, but only to placate Germany and France, who will probably finally join the other fifty countries pledged to bring about regime change in Iraq. Neither country will want to be "left out" if the UN decides to take action for fear of becoming even more redundant on the world stage after Saddam is gone. Purely a political act though.

Beccy: don't let the naysayers get you down. Speak your beliefs. Don't worry about whether or not you agree with someone or not, and certainly don't worry if someone doesn't agree with you! Be true to yourself, and what you believe. That's all that is important.

DougR

Subject: RE: BS: Iraq: Report of The Smoking Gun
From: Amos
Date: 06 Feb 03 - 01:23 AM

Dog:

I didn't say I doubted Powell's veracity. I don't mind saying I respect him a lot more than his superiors.

A

Subject: RE: BS: Iraq: Report of The Smoking Gun
From: Boab
Date: 06 Feb 03 - 02:00 AM

Let's all calm down. There's going to be an invasion of Iraq. There was always going to be an invasion of Iraq, no matter if the only weapon of mass destruction found was a twelve bore shotgun. Like many another, I have been much more enraged by the rhetoric coming from the Bush/Rumsfeld camp and from their Bushie-tail Blair poodle than I have ever been by the certainty that Saddam is a first-class ratbag. He is an evil man, whether he possesses WMD or not. But as long as there are present in Iraq a team [a much larger team if necessary] of inspectors representing the UN [NOT the vested interests of any minor group] there can be no opportunity for Saddam to unleash his "maybe" WMDs. From the standpoit of cost OR of morality this is a much better option than launching a ferocious and murderous assault on the people of Iraq. But as I say; it's going to happen, and the knowledge disgusts me, and thank God, many millions of others.
One over-riding reason for invasion has grown from nil since all this started----WMDs MUST be found now, or some people will never be believed again. Rest assured---they will be found--even if they are not there just yet [and I do not completely discount Iraqi intrigue]. Can anyone think of an easier task than driving a "modified lorry" over the Turkish or Kuwaiti border?

Subject: RE: BS: Iraq: Report of The Smoking Gun
From: Teribus
Date: 06 Feb 03 - 05:33 AM

Boab,

You obviously have great faith in the capability and capacity of the UN weapons inspectors and see the way forward, through, and hopefully out of this mess, in relying on their efforts.

Which UN weapons inspectors Boab? UNSCOM or UNMOVIC? Do you consider that the UNSCOM Inspectors incompetent fools and that everything they reported was rubbish? If so what makes you think that the UNMOVIC Inspectors are infallable?

In your post above you say:

"...as long as there are present in Iraq a team [a much larger team if necessary] of inspectors representing the UN [NOT the vested interests of any minor group] there can be no opportunity for Saddam to unleash his "maybe" WMDs."

Unless the degree of Iraqi co-operation improves, there is no guarantee that any WMD will be found, or incontravertible evidence offered as to their destruction.

You believe Saddam Hussein to be "a first-class ratbag" and "an evil man". With the inspectors in place you contend that:

"there can be no opportunity for Saddam to unleash his "maybe" WMD's."

In saying that are you categorically dismissing the possibility that such weapons could not be passed to others and used. If you are, then I would love to here the reasoning to support such a contention.

I, on the other hand, contend that it is not without the bounds of possibility that this could happen, and there lies the threat. All, repeat all, the indications are there to support that view in regard to this man and the regime he heads.

Subject: RE: BS: Iraq: Report of The Smoking Gun
From: Teribus
Date: 06 Feb 03 - 06:01 AM

CarolC:

"Here you go, Teribus... the UNMOVIC Teams rush to the sites that were named and veryfy beyond any doubt that there are no weapons there. If they find any weapons there, then we'll know Saddam hasn't disarmed, and the inspectors will have done their job.

If you or the Bush administration were really interested in a peaceful solution to this situation, you and they wouldn't be using such a "lawyerly" definition of the inspectors' job."

In my post from which you quoted - I was referring to the sites specifically mentioned by the Iraqi Defector - I have still not heard whether or not inspectors have visited those sites - maybe we will hear about that on the 14th of this month when Dr. Hans Blix reports back to the UNSC.

If you actually believe that UNMOVIC were sent to Iraq to physically search for and uncover Iraq's WMD, then I would suggest that 100 odd inspectors comprise a woefully inadequate team to undertake such a task.

Read UNSC Resolution 1441

Read the description of UNMOVIC's role on the UN web site

No "lawyerly" definition or interpretation required on the part of anybody reading either.

If Iraq does not want war then it is painfully and obviously simple - They, the Ba'athist Iraqi regime of Saddam Hussein, must disarm or provide clear and verifiable evidence that stocks that were KNOWN to exist in 1998 have been destroyed and that the weapons programmes that produced them have been put beyond future use.

Subject: RE: BS: Iraq: Report of The Smoking Gun
From: Bagpuss
Date: 06 Feb 03 - 07:00 AM

Article

It worries me when people give out so called evidence that is contradicted by their own or their best buddies intelligence services. If the case for war is so strong, there would be no need to hype up evidence with tenuous links and theories. It just makes evrything else they say that little bit less credible.

Subject: RE: BS: Iraq: Report of The Smoking Gun
From: Bagpuss
Date: 06 Feb 03 - 07:04 AM

Another aricle from the dreaded Guardian

The *intelligence* is always supplied as if it has been verified and is incontravertable, but when you look at the recent past you see how flawed and tenuous it often is.

Subject: RE: BS: Iraq: Report of The Smoking Gun
From: Teribus
Date: 06 Feb 03 - 11:13 AM

CarolC:

"All such differences aside, Amos, I, personally, favor letting the inspectors decide what is needed in order for them to do their job, rather than having it dictated to them by the Bush and Blair administrations, or by Teribus even."

Apart from the current American Administration insisting on a new resolution being adopted by the UN prior to their arrival (UNSC Resolution 1441). Neither G.W. Bush, Tony Blair or myself have ever in any way shape or form dictated to UNMOVIC or to the IAEA what is needed for them to do their job.

Amos thanks for the link to the Saudi Initiative. Some points:

The introductory paragraph of Time Exclusive says (wrt Arab Leaders), "So after years of tolerating Saddam Hussein's aggression and terror, some of them are turning against him."

Really? I've seen precious little evidence of that.

The Saudi proposal relies on the UN unanimously adopting a war option that would be kept as a measure of last resort -

Under what circumstances does Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saud al Faisal think that this could ever be achieved and, if achieved, maintained in any credible form?

"...the Saudi formula is an offer of amnesty to Iraqi officials and military officers who demonstrate their readiness to cooperate with the U.N. by revealing information on arms concealment or by showing other clear signs that they oppose Iraq's non-compliance with U.N. resolutions."

The undoubted inference from this is that Saudi Arabia officially firmly believes that Iraq is concealing weapons and is not currently complying with U.N. resolutions.

"Amnesty would be an attractive offer, the Saudi's believe, because Iraqi officials are fearful that they may be hunted down and prosecuted for being part of a regime that has used weapons of mass destruction against foreign enemies as well as its own people."

Wouldn't work, Teribus believes, because Iraqi officials would be absolutely bloody terrified that their passing on of such information came to the notice of Saddam's security services. Prosecution would then be the least of their concerns, not only for themselves but for their entire families, friends of their families and family pets.

"Our idea" Saud added, "is to transform the military effort of the United Nations from a military effort that seeks to occupy, that seeks to inflict pain on Iraq, into an effort that is aimed at guaranteeing the security and territorial integrity of Iraq. The essential part of it is for the Iraqi government to(continue to) be a functioning government, to allow for a peaceful transition."

That is the existing Ba'athist government our Highness is talking about isn't it?? If so, as an Iraqi Shi'ite, or an Iraqi Kurd I believe I'd want some form of guarantee that the continuing Ba'athist regime does not occupy my land and does not inflict pain on me during this "peaceful" transition.

The rift in the UNSC is mentioned.

"The way it is going, we see divergence of opinions in the Security Council. That will encourage Saddam Hussein to think, 'If there is division, I can obfuscate and not do anything and get away with it.'

Well his Highness is right about that - that is what Saddam has been doing for 12 years now and he is still getting away with it - He would continue to get away with it under this Saudi Initiative - after all what would stop him.

Middle and senior ranked Iraqi officials and military personnel, working inside one of the most paranoid and repressive regimes on earth are seriously being asked to put their trust and faith in the U.N.??? Who does Prince Saud think occupies those positions within Iraq, idealistic graduates who got there by merit and serving their time?? The people entrusted with Iraq's state secrets and who are in a position to blow the whistle on sensitive projects and programmes are Saddam's men through and through. They are also monitored by Iraqi Internal Security Services to ensure that things stay the way they are.

Subject: RE: BS: Iraq: Report of The Smoking Gun
From: CarolC
Date: 06 Feb 03 - 11:55 AM

Teribus (and DougR), clearly it is possible to interpret UNSC Resolution 1441, and UNMOVIC's role in Iraq. Because what you think it means, and what I and apparently the UN inspectors think it means appear to be two different things. And if the Bush and Blair administrations (and you) weren't trying to dictate their job to the inspectors, both of those adminstrations would not send troops over there until the UN said it was time to do so.

The reason I know they're sending troops over there (beyond what I see in the news) is because most of the troops stationed at the army base in the town where I live have already been shipped over.

Subject: RE: BS: Iraq: Report of The Smoking Gun
From: DougR
Date: 06 Feb 03 - 02:01 PM

Carol, anyone who doubts that both the U. S. and Great Britain are sending troops to the Middle-East would simply have had to have slept for the past twelve months.

Your comment about 1441 causes me to doubt very seriously that you in fact did read it. The Executive Secretary of the UN has made it very clear that the Inspectors are not charged with determining whether or not there has been a material breach of the Resolution. Fourteen forty one makes it abundantly clear that the Iraquis are required to cooperate with the inspectors, and prove to them that Iraq has no weapons of mass destruction. It also makes it quite clear that if the Security Council finds Iraq is in material breach, serious consequences will be the result. So what do you suppose those consequences might be?

DougR

Subject: RE: BS: Iraq: Report of The Smoking Gun
From: DougR
Date: 06 Feb 03 - 02:09 PM

Bagpuss: I forgot to address the "Guardian" article you posted.

I think it is strange that no U. S. news source has picked up on that story about Secretary Powell's presentation to the UN Security Council. I would think that the New York Times, Washington Post or other liberal newspaper or TV network would have jumped on that story in a New York minute.

DougR

Subject: RE: BS: Iraq: Report of The Smoking Gun
From: Bobert
Date: 06 Feb 03 - 02:13 PM

Dougie:

Me and my Wes Ginny slide rule can't fir the life of us figure out how someone goes about proving that *don't* have something. Is this one of those trick *negative numbers* think from calculis, or what?

Jusy curious.

I mean, the US has been supplying the inspectors, who T says ain't there to look for WMD's, with *intellegence* ( or whatever thet want to call it... seems like a msinomer to me but heck, ti's their game and they can call the stuff *orages* if the want)... ahhh, with all this *intellegence* nothing has been found that adds up to this big scarey thing that Bush has been screaming about ever since Saddam tried to "kill his daddy".

Okay, they found some aluminum tubes that at first they said we're up to snuff but then *became* up to snuff when they needed to come up with more stuff for yesterday's PR Performance....

Actually, Doug, I heard that you're hiding a WMD yerself and until you prove to me that you're not I'm going to just assume you are...

Okay?

Bobert

Subject: RE: BS: Iraq: Report of The Smoking Gun
From: CarolC
Date: 06 Feb 03 - 02:20 PM

I'll read it again DougR, and then I'll let you know if I think I read it correctly the first time.

Subject: RE: BS: Iraq: Report of The Smoking Gun
From: CarolC
Date: 06 Feb 03 - 05:16 PM

5.Decides that Iraq shall provide UNMOVIC and the IAEA immediate, unimpeded, unconditional, and unrestricted access to any and all, including underground, areas, facilities, buildings, equipment, records, and means of transport which they wish to inspect, as well as immediate, unimpeded, unrestricted, and private access to all officials and other persons whom UNMOVIC or the IAEA wish to interview in the mode or location of UNMOVIC's or the IAEA's choice pursuant to any aspect of their mandates; further decides that UNMOVIC and the IAEA may at their discretion conduct interviews inside or outside of Iraq, may facilitate the travel of those interviewed and family members outside of Iraq, and that, at the sole discretion of UNMOVIC and the IAEA, such interviews may occur without the presence of observers from the Iraqi Government; and instructs UNMOVIC and requests the IAEA to resume inspections no later than 45 days following adoption of this resolution and to update the Council 60 days thereafter;

UNMOVIC and the IAEA shall have the right at their sole discretion verifiably to remove, destroy, or render harmless all prohibited weapons, subsystems, components, records, materials, and other related items, and the right to impound or close any facilities or equipment for the production thereof; and

UNMOVIC and the IAEA shall have the right to free import and use of equipment or materials for inspections and to seize and export any equipment, materials, or documents taken during inspections, without search of UNMOVIC or IAEA personnel or official or personal baggage;

These are the tools the inspectors were given in order to do their job of verifying wheter or not Saddam has complied with the prior order to disarm.

10.Requests all Member States to give full support to UNMOVIC and the IAEA in the discharge of their mandates, including by providing any information related to prohibited programmes or other aspects of their mandates, including on Iraqi attempts since 1998 to acquire prohibited items, and by recommending sites to be inspected, persons to be interviewed, conditions of such interviews, and data to be collected, the results of which shall be reported to the Council by UNMOVIC and the IAEA;

This article places a responsibility on the US to provide any intelligence or evidence it has about the whereabouts of any WMDs that the US believes Saddam has contrary to anything he has told the inspectors about his compliance with the UN resolutions.

If Saddam says he has complied with the resolutions, the US government isn't in a positions to refute what Saddam has said unless it has evidence to the contrary. If it has such evidence, the US is compelled to supply it to the inspection teams. And when the inspection teams have this information, they are authorized to use it to find and destroy whatever WMDs or other prohibited weapons Saddam has.

It's time for the US to let the inspectors do their job unimpeded by the US and Britain.

Subject: RE: BS: Iraq: Report of The Smoking Gun
From: CarolC
Date: 06 Feb 03 - 05:18 PM

I should have previewed before sending. My intention was to only put my responses in bold. This part should not be in bold"

10.Requests all Member States to give full support to UNMOVIC and the IAEA in the discharge of their mandates, including by providing any information related to prohibited programmes or other aspects of their mandates, including on Iraqi attempts since 1998 to acquire prohibited items, and by recommending sites to be inspected, persons to be interviewed, conditions of such interviews, and data to be collected, the results of which shall be reported to the Council by UNMOVIC and the IAEA;

Subject: RE: BS: Iraq: Report of The Smoking Gun
From: DougR
Date: 07 Feb 03 - 12:14 AM

So Carol C, is Iraq in compliance or not?

DougR

Subject: RE: BS: Iraq: Report of The Smoking Gun
From: Teribus
Date: 07 Feb 03 - 05:39 AM

Bagpuss, your post of 07:00.

I think this "distancing" has got a lot more to do with impending legal proceedings in the UK and "due process of law" than anything else.

Any possible link with Al-Qaeda has got nothing to do with the case case the police and CPS are prosecuting. UK Intelligence services will definitely be investigating any posible link on the strength of information shared with the US and other intelligence sources.

Subject: RE: BS: Iraq: Report of The Smoking Gun
From: CarolC
Date: 07 Feb 03 - 11:16 AM

I think I'll let the UN inspectors determine whether or not he is in compliance, and I'll let the UN Security Council decide whether or not a lack of total compliance warrants war with Iraq. They may determine that he can be disarmed even if he is not in total compliance. And not even you can deny that he has complied to a very great extent. I quote Teribus from another thread:

3. February 2003 - The Iraqi Government has conceded point after point, that previously it declared were unsurmountable obstacles.

Subject: RE: BS: Iraq: Report of The Smoking Gun
From: Teribus
Date: 07 Feb 03 - 11:37 AM

Yes CarolC - now tell us why you think he has done that - US pressure (or as Bobert describes it "Huff and Puff"), no other reason.

Dr. Blix and Dr. AlBaradei are still not happy with the degree of co-operation their teams are getting - but things are improving, of that there is no doubt. We'll see what happens after their meeting with the Iraqi's tomorrow and what they state in their report to be delivered on the 14th.

Subject: RE: BS: Iraq: Report of The Smoking Gun
From: CarolC
Date: 07 Feb 03 - 12:41 PM

Teribus, if "huff and puff" in order to get Saddam to comply is our entire agenda, you'll get no complaints from me. However, I don't share your confidence in that respect.

This is a quote from a paper written by the right-wing Israeli think tank, The Institute for Advanced Strategic and Political Studies, in 1996. It's main author, Richard Perle, is the chairman of the Defense Policy Board, a civilian group that advises the Pentagon:

Israel can shape its strategic environment, in cooperation with Turkey and Jordan, by weakening, containing, and even rolling back Syria. This effort can focus on removing Saddam Hussein from power in Iraq — an important Israeli strategic objective in its own right.

The governments of the US and Israel want nothing less than the removal of Saddam Hussein from power, regardless of whether or not he has any weapons of mass destruction. I don't particularly have any problems with Saddam not being in power in Iraq. But I do have very strong opinions about the kinds of approaches we might use to accomplish those ends.

Subject: RE: BS: Iraq: Report of The Smoking Gun
From: Amos
Date: 08 Feb 03 - 10:47 AM

T:
Neither G.W. Bush, Tony Blair or myself have ever in any way shape or form dictated to UNMOVIC or to the IAEA what is needed for them to do their job.



I don't mean to pry, Teribus, but in what capacity would you have been in a position to dictate to either group as described, on any terms comparable to the other two people you mentioned? Honestly?

A

Subject: RE: BS: Iraq: Report of The Smoking Gun
From: DougR
Date: 09 Feb 03 - 01:11 AM

Amos: Unless memory fails me, it was another Mudcatter that included Teribus in that mix, not Teribus him/herself.

DougR

Subject: RE: BS: Iraq: Report of The Smoking Gun
From: CarolC
Date: 09 Feb 03 - 11:08 AM

T'was me. It was I. I did it. J'étais moi. Mea Culpa.

;-)

Subject: RE: BS: Iraq: Report of The Smoking Gun
From: Amos
Date: 09 Feb 03 - 11:17 AM

Ayyyyy, Toi!! Q't'es mechant pour lui melanger ainsi entre ces types degalasse! :>) Sorry, T.

A

Subject: RE: BS: Iraq: Report of The Smoking Gun
From: CarolC
Date: 09 Feb 03 - 11:54 AM

AMOS Désolés. Mon Français vient des Poissons de Babel. Je ne comprends pas votre poteau.

;-)