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BS: When will the OIL run out?
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Subject: BS: When will the OIL run out? From: GUEST,Guest,, Gringo Date: 07 Mar 05 - 10:24 PM Take a good look around you and count the ways petroleum and its by products affect your life. Everything you touch, use, consume, or use in your daily life is in some way touched by OIL. Now multiply this by several hundred million others doing the same thing.Plus, Trains, Cars, Trucks, Ships, Rockets, and on and on and on. We know what almost panic insues when the Arabs jack up the price by just a few cents. What if it all slowed down and stopped. No alternate fuel in sight can take over. Mankind seems to be content just to use up the fossil fuel and worry about it later. I would like to hear your comments on this. I don't have the answer, but we better start looking now. Gringo |
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Subject: RE: BS: When will the OIL run out? From: Ebbie Date: 07 Mar 05 - 11:02 PM The first thing governments would do is to ramp up the old nuclear reactors- hang the inherent dangers. |
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Subject: RE: BS: When will the OIL run out? From: Boab Date: 08 Mar 05 - 12:55 AM Sadly, there is always a high proportion of any national government which cares naught for the weal of humanity --or the Earth --outwith their own miserable lifetime. Like Rab Burns, I look ahead---and guess---and fear---- |
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Subject: RE: BS: When will the OIL run out? From: GUEST Date: 08 Mar 05 - 05:10 AM When there is no money to be made from it! |
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Subject: RE: BS: When will the OIL run out? From: Wolfgang Date: 08 Mar 05 - 05:23 AM Oil will run out Wolfgang |
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Subject: RE: BS: When will the OIL run out? From: Bobert Date: 08 Mar 05 - 08:35 AM Ditto to the stuff I said last time.... But I never did get an answer to why the nation's "Energy Policy" was written in secret by a bunch of oilmen... Now the Bushites are using "Executive Priveldge" to protect Dick Cneney from haveing to release any details of those sectret meeetings... And just last night on the news we were being told that gasoline would probably go up another 20 cents a gallon in the next 6 months??? Man, if this had happened under Clinton Ken Starr would have had a "field day" and that impeachment would have stuck and Bush would have had to run against President Gore in 2000... Sho nuff would... Bobert |
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Subject: RE: BS: When will the OIL run out? From: Rapparee Date: 08 Mar 05 - 08:38 AM I've know this since the 1970s. What else is new? More importantly, what are you, personally, doing about it? That plastic bag you get at the store is made from petroleum -- do you use paper or better yet, your own reusable bag? Do you refuse plastic bottles and only use glass? -- plastics are petroleum based. How about those plastic shoes you wear because you think leather means animal cruelty? Does the car you drive, even a hybrid, have plastic parts? What about the medicines you take? -- many are derived, in one way or another, from petroleum, including aspirin. Why don't we recylce the plastics back into petroleum? |
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Subject: RE: BS: When will the OIL run out? From: Bee-dubya-ell Date: 08 Mar 05 - 09:13 AM What many people don't seem to realize is that a small, say 1%, shortage in petroleum supply will not equate to a correspondingly small price increase in petroleum products. The price increase will be huge. Any shortage, no matter how small will probably mean price doubling at minimum, and I've heard predictions of possible ten-fold increases. And as petroleum prices go up, the prices of everything else in the whole economy will go up as well. Transportation charges are already a big chunk of the price we pay for consumer goods and if transportation costs double you can expect to see horrendous price increases on store shelves. |
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Subject: RE: BS: When will the OIL run out? From: Wolfgang Date: 08 Mar 05 - 09:22 AM Do you refuse plastic bottles and only use glass? I disagree with the thinking behind this statement. Since a couple of years, with the approval of the Green part of our government, glass bottles are replaced by reusable plastic bottles (with a deposit as an incentive to bring them back). They are much lighter than glass bottles (less transport costs and less petrol use), the number of times they can be reused is much higher than with glass bottles (they don't break easily). In comparison to glass they have a better eco-balance under the present conditions (comparing them both under the assumption of a deposit system and reuse). The wish to optimise one variable can lead to suboptimal decisions when looking at the whole. Wolfgang |
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Subject: RE: BS: When will the OIL run out? From: Pied Piper Date: 08 Mar 05 - 09:50 AM I think Rapaire you'll find that the amount of oil used to make plastics is vanishingly small compared to the amount that is burned for energy. The technology already exists to make liquid fuel from plant sources. Just around the corner from me as I sit here in the library of sunny Eccles there is a plant that takes in used cooking oil and converts it into diesel. The problem for us all is the US government's weasel-worded Machiavellian hypocrisy. PP |
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Subject: RE: BS: When will the OIL run out? From: Rapparee Date: 08 Mar 05 - 12:57 PM Yup, PP. I'm aware of biodiesel and other such sources. But the figure I've heard is that the US alone converts 12 million barrels of oil just for plastic bags. And I'm quite aware of the potential of recycling plastics -- I've been doing it since 1972, in fact. But here not all the plastics are recycled -- just 1 & 2. And I can forget about glass (which can and is remelted and reused). My car gets 30 mpg in the city and 36 on the highway. It is not, shall we say, an SUV. And I agree that the US is doing a good job of using up oil resources. And I'm getting damned annoyed that while I've been trying to do my bit so many others undercut it. |
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Subject: RE: BS: When will the OIL run out? From: Uncle_DaveO Date: 08 Mar 05 - 01:31 PM Several matters: The long-foreseen "switchover" has only recently occurred. That is, the curve of oil usage versus oil discovery has peaked; the world is now using more oil than it is discovering every year. We won't actually run out for a number of years, and there is without doubt oil to be discovered, but the corner has been turned, and the difference between discovery and use is widening. I'm of the opinion that it should be a crime to use petroleum for energy. We need it much worse as raw source chemicals than as fuel. There are other sources of energy (although more expensive), but few alternative chemical sources. The world supply of petroleum currently known is greatly overstated, in effect. A great deal of what is left in the ground is either geographically impractical to extract and use or is geologically impractical--being tied up in small, isolated pools here and there. Thus the cost of discovery is increasingly prohibitive, and the cost of extraction from limited-volume pools is very high, and the cost of transportation of the extracted petroleum to refineries and use is extreme because of remoteness. The price per barrel on the markets is not particularly reflective (right now) of greater or smaller (decreasing) supply. The current cost per barrel is a function of speculation, and speculation almost exclusively. Every barrel of oil has been sold and resold about three times before it is ever brought to the surface, and many times thereafter in handling, refining, and distribution. At each resale the price of oil tends to be higher, not because of any value added, but purely on a speculative basis. In the next ten years I fully expect to see a world petroleum price of something like $90 a barrel. Dave Oesterreich |
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Subject: RE: BS: When will the OIL run out? From: Cobble Date: 08 Mar 05 - 01:46 PM Rapaire Asprin does not come from oil. It comes from the bark of willow trees. Cobble. |
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Subject: RE: BS: When will the OIL run out? From: Uncle_DaveO Date: 08 Mar 05 - 01:56 PM It is true that Aspirin is a chemical which originally was identified in and extracted from the bark of willow trees. But, as with a great number of pharmaceuticals in today's world, it is now synthesized rather than extracted, and I wouldn't be at all surprised if some or all of the underlying chemicals were petrochemicals. In any case, today is it an artificial product. Dave Oesterreich |
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Subject: RE: BS: When will the OIL run out? From: robomatic Date: 08 Mar 05 - 03:37 PM (sigh) BS: Defense Bill and Drilling Alaska Refuge BS: Let's Drill 'The Barren Alaska Plain' |
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Subject: RE: BS: When will the OIL run out? From: Pied Piper Date: 08 Mar 05 - 03:44 PM Spot on Dave. Salisylic Acid Synthesis |
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Subject: RE: BS: When will the OIL run out? From: GUEST,noddy Date: 09 Mar 05 - 08:39 AM If you want oil to last longer charge more for it ,increase the Tax on it. People will start to think twice about buying a vehicle that does 10 mpg AND whats more the money raised can be used to develpoe other CLEANER fuels. So come on Bush you know it makes sense for the Planet .You are on the same planet as the rest of us...arent you????? |
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Subject: RE: BS: When will the OIL run out? From: GUEST,The cookieless Stage Manager Date: 09 Mar 05 - 10:51 AM Not long back from central Europe where I found a lot of very middle class and conservative (note small c) people are getting excited by the this book.: Oil makes Wars I was surprised just how many people now consider they have a religious (Christian) duty to distance themselves from the current American administration, and are spending quite a bit of their money on creating lifestyles that avoid using oil based products. This includes investing heavily in using biomass for fuelling vehicles. Anyone else come across this this sort of thing? |
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Subject: RE: BS: When will the OIL run out? From: CarolC Date: 09 Mar 05 - 05:24 PM Right on, noddy. Yes, The Stage Manager. Not so much the distancing from Bush part, but I know a family of very conservative (and independently wealthy) Christians who are very environmentally conscious. The son is now in college majoring in business as it relates to emerging sustainable technologies. I was very encouraged when I first heard about this. |
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Subject: RE: BS: When will the OIL run out? From: kendall Date: 09 Mar 05 - 09:58 PM I use canvas carrier bags, both of our cars are 4 cylinder types, we recycle but in the end it wont matter. Oil will run out in our lifetime. During its final death throes the price will go way up, as it did in the UK and most other countries, and we will also end up driving upholstered roller skates and paying $10.00 per gallon, or more. |
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Subject: RE: BS: When will the OIL run out? From: CarolC Date: 09 Mar 05 - 11:19 PM Get yourself a diesel vehicle, kendall (if you don't already have one). With a very small amount of modification, you can run those things on recycled deep fryer oil from the local McDonalds. I bet there won't be any shortage of that anytime soon. |
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Subject: RE: BS: When will the OIL run out? From: GUEST,.gargoyle Date: 09 Mar 05 - 11:23 PM Ethynol production (US mid states,2005 ) is exceedning demand. March, 2005 WSJ. FJ.
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Subject: RE: BS: When will the OIL run out? From: GUEST,.gargoyle Date: 09 Mar 05 - 11:30 PM At two EURO a liter it is still cheaper and easier than mantaining a horse. Count your blessings!!!!
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Subject: RE: BS: When will the OIL run out? From: saulgoldie Date: 04 Apr 05 - 09:34 AM http://www.alternet.org/envirohealth/21588/ |
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Subject: RE: BS: When will the OIL run out? From: Dave the Gnome Date: 04 Apr 05 - 10:06 AM I took the sump plug out of the CX500 yesterday and all the oil ran out. I caught it in an old cat litter tray. So even though it has all run out I still have it:-) |
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Subject: RE: BS: When will the OIL run out? From: Peter T. Date: 04 Apr 05 - 12:39 PM Oil will never run out, the planet is swimming in the stuff, there are many many places that haven't even been touched yet, and as the price goes up (it will be well over 100$ a barrel very soon) more will be sought out, basic economics 101. It will just be more expensive to get out of the ground. The tar sands in Alberta alone have billions of barrels of the stuff. All this enviro-wishful thinking about the oil peak is vaguely interesting, but not very relevant to the physics of the situation. The real problem is the capacity of the atmosphere and the oceans to handle fossil fuels, not the capacity of the ground to bring them forth. Global warming will ruin our lives long before the oil runs out if we go on like this. yours, Peter T. |
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Subject: RE: BS: When will the OIL run out? From: saulgoldie Date: 04 Apr 05 - 12:41 PM Even if it doesn't run out (though I do believe it is headed in that direction), there is still that nasty warming effect from buring the stuff. |
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Subject: RE: BS: When will the OIL run out? From: Stu Date: 04 Apr 05 - 04:44 PM Strange really. There is a massive fusion reactor whose pollution we can deal with effectively and even utlilse for our own ends. It has a 10-billion year lifespan, so shouldn't run out soon, and birds and plants love it. The best thing is it's TOTALLY FREE! Shame we cannot, as a race, see the bleedin' obvious becuase of our obession with humvees, 4x4s and cheap petrol. |
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Subject: RE: BS: When will the OIL run out? From: Don(Wyziwyg)T Date: 04 Apr 05 - 06:16 PM Yes Stig, But we won't be able to manage it for long if we keep weakening the ozone layer with the output, among other things, from our use of fossil fuels. Then the question will be academic. Possibly, the best thing for our continued survival will be the early arrival of the day when petrol costs more than hydrogen (electrolysis from water). That can be used in current vehicles with nothing more than re-tuning, and produces only water from the dirty end. And that ain't gonna run out any time soon, the sea's full of it. It would bring global warming to a dead stop too. Don T. |
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Subject: RE: BS: When will the OIL run out? From: Stu Date: 05 Apr 05 - 04:53 AM It may be possible Don, that it is not so easy for some people to make quite as much money from H20, hence the reason the technology has not been adopted as standard. |
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Subject: RE: BS: When will the OIL run out? From: Wolfgang Date: 05 Apr 05 - 08:04 AM That's not the reason but wrong propaganda. On the day that technology is competitive there'll be someone to sell it (and another buy it). Wolfgang |
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Subject: RE: BS: When will the OIL run out? From: GUEST,Larry K Date: 05 Apr 05 - 09:33 AM I was at the Federal Reserve Bank energy seminar a few weeks ago. Stephanie Battles from the EIA (energy information administration) divison of the department of energy gave a presentation. She stated that in 1971 the estimated oil reserve for the world was 200 billion barrels. Since that time we have pumped 400 billion barrels. The current world oil reserve is now estimated at 209 billion barrels- higher than it was in 1971. As the price of oil went up it encouraged new investment in R +D and technology. This lead to the discovery of oil in the Gulf of Mexico- a very large source of oil today. (Hurricane Ivan did a number on the the gulf causing a temporaty shortfall last year) Who knows how much oil is in Alaska- or other parts of the world. As the price of fossil fuels goes up it will spur new investments and discoveries. Alternative fuels are coming down but still too expensive. A few facts: My utility makes energy for an average price under $20 per MW. The other large utility in our state has an average price to produce energy at $30 per MW (per the Public Service Comission web site) Wind energy in my state sells for $58 per MW. Biomass is $50 per MW. Solar $80-$100 per MW. These are the actual numbers from existing contracts. While alternative energy is coming down in price, it is still not at levels where we can switch over large amounts of energy. I am co-lead on a voluntary renewable energy program that we will launch in 2006. If successful, it will be one of the 5 largest voluntary programs in the country. I am opposed to mandatory programs. In national web seminars on energy, Global Solutions calculates that it will take $53.4 billion in investment to produce 52,729 MW that are needed just to satisfy the mandated state requirements by 2020. (about 20 states have mandated requirements between 2005 and 2020. Wind is estimated to make up 76% of the new energy requirements) I have serious doubts whether these investments can/will be made. I don't see how these mandates standards will be met. I am meeting with the president of McKenzie Bay (windmill company) later this week. Maybe I will have more information on wind and how he sees the future. |
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Subject: RE: BS: When will the OIL run out? From: Peter T. Date: 05 Apr 05 - 10:47 AM Why are you opposed to mandatory programs? Government regulation combined with market forces is a pretty good mix. Especially since the entire energy system at the moment is riddled with government regulation, subsidies, etc., for non-renewables. yours, Peter T. |
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Subject: RE: BS: When will the OIL run out? From: GUEST,Larry K Date: 05 Apr 05 - 02:06 PM Peter T- I am opposed to mandatory renewable standards because of the pricing difference between renewable and fossil fules. As stated above- we pay under $20 MW and renewables will cost around $60 MW. That would triple the generation cost and cause rates to skyrocket. I think that would cause finantial hardship on too many people. I don't mind a gradual buildup if done rationally. (is that an oxymoron asking the govt to be rational?) Michigan currently has 6% of all its energy from renewable. We have been ordered to offer a voluntary program that will have 2-3% of all residential customers on it by 2008. We currently have over 2 million customers so we are being asked to enroll 60,000 customers in the first 3 years. I think that is ambitious but reasonable. (Most utilities with renewable programs have less than 1% of customers on their program) If we were mandated to have 10% of customers in the next two years, and it had to be sourced from Michigan, I think there would be colusion and all the renewable suppliers would raise their prices because they knew we were required to buy from them. (Even renewable energy guys are capitalists) We have seen that begin to happen alraeady. We only have 3 windmills in Michigan that produce 2.4 MW of energy. Pretty pathetic. We also are the "Saudi Arabia" of wind with over 16,000 potential MW in the great lakes that are level 4 and 5 making them profitable today. (per new wind maps that were published 2 months ago) Unfortunately, the one wind guy is charging $58 MW with a 20 year contract and every other wind mill has raised their price to $60 to meet it. In Ohio and Wisconsin you can buy wind for $35 MW. That is why I am oppsed to government mandates. PS: Father Charles Morris- founder of the Michigan Interfaith Power and Light organization and leading energy guru in the state (can a Father be a guru?) gave my daughter a partial ownership share in a Native American wind farm as a Bat Mitvah gift (and a coupon for a quart of Ben and Jerry ice cream) How many people can say they are a part owner of a wind farm. Cool gift. |
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Subject: RE: BS: When will the OIL run out? From: CarolC Date: 05 Apr 05 - 02:10 PM Alternative fuels are coming down but still too expensive. Oil is too expensive also, but they never factor in the hidden costs of oil when making these kinds of comparisons. But they should. |
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Subject: RE: BS: When will the OIL run out? From: Don(Wyziwyg)T Date: 05 Apr 05 - 05:42 PM That's all immaterial Carol. Until oil prices rocket to more than renewables only mandatory schemes will receive any financing, and as Larry said, that won't meet the cost, because only governments can be coerced to invest, and private investors in oil are doing very nicely thankyou. When the costs approach equality, they'll be the first to jump in, and they'll still be doing very nicely........Ho hum!...Capitalism works...For capitalists. Socialism is always short of cash. Don T. |
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Subject: RE: BS: When will the OIL run out? From: CarolC Date: 05 Apr 05 - 06:30 PM Plus, Don T., they have to taxpayers to foot the bill for all of the wars needed in order to secure the oil supplies in foreign countries. Why should they care? |
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Subject: RE: BS: When will the OIL run out? From: Don(Wyziwyg)T Date: 05 Apr 05 - 08:27 PM Yer right there, Carol, but they might if we didn't keep re-electing them both sides of the Atlantic. Don T |
