BS: Germany; Grand Coalition?

Subject: BS: Germany; Grand Coalition?
From: GUEST,Ron Davies
Date: 13 Sep 05 - 10:59 PM

Interesting article in today's (13 Sept 2005) Wall St. Journal, predicting that the Christian Democrats will not, as had been anticipated, get an outright majority in Sunday's election, even with the support of the FDP. Therefore they may form a coalition with the Social Democrats, their main rivals. The article also predicts that such a coalition will likely not last, since the CDU has been drifting to the right and the SPD drifting to the left.

There is a possibility that there would be some "horse trading", according to Eckart Tuchtfeld, an economist at Commerzbank. For instance, in exchange for accepting some "loosening of job-protection laws" (with the supposed goal to help the unemployed find work), the CDU would agree to minimum wages in some industries and to "raising east Germans' unemployment benefits to the same level as west Germans'.''

I think it would be particularly worthwhile to get the views of our German Mudcatters on election prospects, especially as to whether they think a "Grand Coalition" shows much promise.

Subject: RE: BS: Germany; Grand Coalition?
From: Wilfried Schaum
Date: 14 Sep 05 - 04:39 AM

It is too early to speculate. The poll stations will close Sunday, Sept. 18, at 18 o'clock sharp. The outcome would be published about midnight or later, but - in the constituency / electoral district 160 a by-election has to be Sunday, Oct. 2. Our Supreme Court is checking, whether the outcome of Sept. 18 may be announced before Sunday Oct. 2 to avoid influencing the outcome of constituency 160. So it is futile to speculate too much in advance.
A big coalition worked well before once, but the times were different then. Our representatives weren't so ideologized.
If the outcome will be so narrow I don't think that the Social Democrats and the Greens will form a coalition with the new Left Party; their protagonists are a former communist and a former social democrat who is considered a deserter and traitor by his former comrades.
So a big coalition would be the only solution, but I don't think the parties involved are able to bite the bullet for long. We still hope to make it (I'm a conservative), and so do the others.

Subject: RE: BS: Germany; Grand Coalition?
From: Wolfgang
Date: 14 Sep 05 - 06:31 AM

I'm politically at the other side from Wilfried (a red/green voter) but I agree with nearly everything he has said here. It is too close to call right now.

If the conservatives ("black/yellow") don't get the majority what will not (and in my eyes: should not) happen is a coalition of Social Democrats and Greens with the new "The Left" party ("red/red/green"). The most likely outcome in that case will be a big coalition ("black/red", in our colour system. The only other coalition with a likelihood above zero is what we call the traffic light coalition (red/yellow/green).

I'd prefer a big coalition in that case, for it could (in the best case) more easily make some unpopular but necessary decisions. A likely but not desirable consequence of a big coalition will be that in particular the right radical parties will get more votes at the election after this one. Last time when we had a big coalition we nearly had a right nationalist party in the parliament at the next election. The same would happen this time.

Wolfgang

Subject: RE: BS: Germany; Grand Coalition?
From: Amos
Date: 14 Sep 05 - 10:24 AM

What are the unpopular but necessary decisions you see facing such a coalition in Germany, gentlemen?


A.

Subject: RE: BS: Germany; Grand Coalition?
From: Wolfgang
Date: 14 Sep 05 - 12:21 PM

In the long run, pensions and other old age payments are not secure and the present system cannot go on. We'll have to change from a system in which the present workers pay the pensions of the present retired population to a system in which the present workers pay for their own later pensions.
All German governments have spent too much money since long.
Germany has on many levels too many regulations.
Our taxes system is undescribably difficult.
Our federal system needs reforms ((1) too many very small 'lands' and (2) too many decisions involve both the federal government and the lands which usually have a different majority from the Federal government.
We have lived too long in the illusion that we are not an immigration country.
There are no good ideas yet how to deal with more than 10% unemployment.
The future of how to deal with very low wages jobs is not clear (difficult, if just ten miles East of us the wages are much lower and the expertise just as high).
I see not enough good ideas yet how to deal with future energy problems.

The main reason the present government will not be reelected is more than 5 Million unemployed.
The main reason the present opposition may not get the necessary majority is that many people do not expect them to be better than the present government.
The main reason the former communists may hold the balance of power is that there are still enough people who think that reforms may be possible that hurt nobody except the capitalists.

Just BTW, there is no party at all from very conservative to former communists who'd go a really different way regarding Iraq and US politics. The conservatives just would say it a bit nicer but they'd mean the same: Not with us.

The word I usually hear about Bush when I play cards with two quite conservative friends (one even a party menber) is "idiot". They would express themselves differently in public, of course...

Wolfgang

Subject: RE: BS: Germany; Grand Coalition?
From: alanabit
Date: 14 Sep 05 - 01:31 PM

The "Grand Coalition" been done before in Germany, in the sixties I believe. This does look like another cliff hanger election. The winners (whatever the election results say) will be the banks. The tax laws in Germany are such that the more you have, the smaller a proportion of your income you will pay in tax. The laws are so complex and impenetrable that very few people can grasp them at all. However, those few are in for a good time.
For me, the interesting development has been the rise of a genuine left for the first time in years. They will win some seats, without becoming a potent political force. However, they are forcing the SDP to the left to hold their support. So by the time of the next general election, there could well be a difference between the two major parties. For the time being, one conservative government will replace the previous conservative government.
Unlike Tony Blair, Merkel and Stoiber do at least have a choice about whether George Bush will dictate their foreign policy. Unless I have read the signs wrongly though, they are unlikely to do anything which will displease him. It is worth noting that Stoiber is way to the right of most German conservatives outside of Bavaria. And to be fair to Wolfgang, even the bankers I teach, conservatives to the last man and woman, of course, unanimously consider Bush to be a complete prat.

Subject: RE: BS: Germany; Grand Coalition?
From: Amos
Date: 14 Sep 05 - 01:44 PM

The amazing thing is that even with his (Bush's) stenuous and highly efficient control of media and PR, he is seen right through -- he's incapable of providing any substance to support all the puff and messgae with anything of merit. He's been a real eye-opener into the mechanisms of mass illusion and mob-think.


A

Subject: RE: BS: Germany; Grand Coalition?
From: Wolfgang
Date: 14 Sep 05 - 02:12 PM

It could be a very interesting discussion but I disagree strongly with 'The Left' being described as 'genuine left'. Very conservative former communists united with populists. The best I can say about them is that without them there'd be more votes for the extreme right.

Wolfgang

Subject: RE: BS: Germany; Grand Coalition?
From: Wolfgang
Date: 14 Sep 05 - 03:07 PM

Some comments and views from German papers translated into English

Wolfgang (torn between Red and Green)

Subject: RE: BS: Germany; Grand Coalition?
From: McGrath of Harlow
Date: 14 Sep 05 - 05:06 PM

"The poll stations will close Sunday, Sept. 18, at 18 o'clock sharp"

As I understand it, that is not strictly true. I read that the election in the city of Dresden has been postponed until next month, because of the death of a candidate. If the result elsewhere is close, that could mean it'd all be up in the air until Dresden had voted.

And in that case, I'd imagine there'd be a very strange election in Dresden, if it turned out that the Dresden voters were the ones deciding for the whole of Germany...

I hope they are a bit better behaved than the people who disrupted the counting in Florida a few years back when things were on a knife edge in the US Presidential election...

Subject: RE: BS: Germany; Grand Coalition?
From: Wilfried Schaum
Date: 15 Sep 05 - 03:56 AM

McGrath - please read my post again. I continued the sentence about Sept. 18 with but - in the constituency / electoral district 160 a by-election has to be Sunday, Oct. 2. This is one of the Dresden constituencies.
By the way, the Supreme Court has decided that the outcome of the election of Sept. 18 shall be published immediately after the counting.

It is not sure that the Dresden consitutents shall alter the course; it depends on the number of votes for the different parties, and whether there will be a stalemate. Naturally it is feared that the outcome of Sept. 18 might influence the voters in Dresden who could have voted differently on Sept. 18, but all this is guesswork. In the end life is just unfair, hard, and very very strong - especially for the loser.

To Wolfgang's accurate report about Germany's problems I have nothing to add.
Poor boy, to be torn between red and green. May I recommend turning to black?

Subject: RE: BS: Germany; Grand Coalition?
From: GUEST,Stephen L. Rich
Date: 15 Sep 05 - 04:16 AM

With all due respect to alanabit I must take exception to the characterization of Bush as "a complete prat". If that were so he might be vaguely managable. The problem is that, at the moment, he is only two thirds of a prat. He need to improve quite a bit to become a complete one.

Stephen Lee

Subject: RE: BS: Germany; Grand Coalition?
From: Wolfgang
Date: 15 Sep 05 - 05:00 AM

May I recommend turning to black? (Wilfried)

Now, I'm sure you only want to be helpful in an unselfish way, but...

if I am torn between a Talisker Malt and a Lagavulin Malt the offer of a cheap Brandy is not really helpful. I think I'll split my vote and shall give the first to the Reds and the second to the Green (the second vote in Germany is the relevant vote contrary to expectations).

Stephen, Alan only quotes German managers and they are known to express themselves in rather mild terms.

Merkel, BTW, has declared today that she'd not make a Black/Red coalition.

Wolfgang

Subject: RE: BS: Germany; Grand Coalition?
From: Wilfried Schaum
Date: 15 Sep 05 - 06:19 AM

Wolfgang - wrong comparison. From my point of view it is just the reverse. If I have to choose between a good old Czech Budweiser and the american forgery with the stolen name, guess what I'll do? And I'm never torn between them. But be that as it might be, I hope you will introduce me in Cork to the malts in question and we'll cancel the brandy. Then we shall sing ... (horrors galore!)

Schröder also has declined a Black/Red coalition. But who blieves politicians when it's a question of power?
A story about coalitions: Once upon a time there was a social democrat prime minister in Hessen who definitely disclaimed a coalition with the greens and announced in harsh words he would thrash them out with a lath. After the elections he had to take in the greens, and one of his green ministers came to the swearing-in in plimsolls. Consequently they were called later on "The Lath" and "The Plimsoll" (now our Minster of Foreign Affairs, good heavens!)

Subject: RE: BS: Germany; Grand Coalition?
From: Wolfgang
Date: 15 Sep 05 - 06:29 AM

You are old enough to understand me: Mende

Wolfgang

Subject: RE: BS: Germany; Grand Coalition?
From: Wolfgang
Date: 15 Sep 05 - 10:28 AM

Two more articles translated from German to English.

Merkel Campaign "Worst in German History"

A review of what German papers write. Roughly: It's Merkel's fault that the election is getting as close as it now looks.

Say it Slowly: 'Zukunftsangst'

On Sunday, Europe's largest industrialized country will most likely elect the weakest of all postwar governments -- assuming the result even allows a government to be formed.

Some answers to Amos' question.

Wolfgang

Subject: RE: BS: Germany; Grand Coalition?
From: Wolfgang
Date: 15 Sep 05 - 12:31 PM

If the result elsewhere is close, that could mean it'd all be up in the air until Dresden had voted.

That's true but even if the result elsewhere is not close it still could be theoretically possible (though extremely unlikely given the present polls) we had to wait until Dresden has voted.

(I'm fond of theoretical 'horror scenarios' if you are not, just skip my post)

Imagine a result with a clear 20 seat advantage of the conservatives over Red/Green. Imagine that the 'Left' gets 4 % of all votes and two direct seats (more first votes than any other party in two constituencies). Then the 'Left' will get these two seats and nothing else (for being below 5 %). The conservative majority is safe even with the two 'Lefts' added to Red/Green. Nothing that happens in Dresden could change the percentages of the parties more than about the amount for one additional seat. But if the 'Left' in one Dresden constituency would get more first votes than any other party, they not only would get this one additional seat but all of the twenty odd seats for the 4 % of the votes. For a party with three direct mandates there is no 5% limit. In that case, one dozen votes in one constituency can mean two dozen seats in the parliament. A vote for a 'Left' candidate in Dresden can bring a 'Left' candidate at the completely opposite corner of German into the parliament and cost a CSU man in Munich his seat.

Wolfgang

Subject: RE: BS: Germany; Grand Coalition?
From: GUEST,Ron Davies
Date: 15 Sep 05 - 10:16 PM

In the Wall St. Journal today, 2 articles (one a column). They print the column from Spiegel on Zukunftsangst, and there's a big front page article on Angela Merkel. She sounds like a strong woman, and one who knows how to seize the moment. Does she come across to Germans as calculating (for attacking her former mentor?)

The other interesting aspect to me was the amazingly positive view of her in the Spiegel article. When I was in Germany, I had the distinct impression that Spiegel was left of center. Have they now reached the conclusion that Germany's problems are so severe that they require strong medicine which can only come from a conservative?

Subject: RE: BS: Germany; Grand Coalition?
From: Wilfried Schaum
Date: 16 Sep 05 - 10:25 AM

Ron - you're right, The Mirror (Spiegel) is left of center. Sometimes one has the impression its journalists are more interested in their irony and puns than in basic research. If thy are writing positively about Mrs Merkel it could be a signal that she is really good.

Subject: RE: BS: Germany; Grand Coalition?
From: Wolfgang
Date: 18 Sep 05 - 12:11 PM

No conservative majority possible. That much is sure 1 minute after the closing of the polling booths. No red/green majority either.

Losses for the Christian Democrats will give Merkel a very hard time.

Big coalition quite probable.

Wolfgang

Subject: RE: BS: Germany; Grand Coalition?
From: Ron Davies
Date: 21 Sep 05 - 09:41 PM

Anybody who "breathes a sigh of relief" at the German stalemate is not using his or her head. Such a spectacularly wrong-headed sentiment is not really surprising, considering some of the giant intellects, often anonymous and on the Right, who sometimes post here. But schadenfreude is out of place.

People should be able to see beyond the temporary ego boost of the dollar strengthening against the euro, a development which of course is also not good for US trade. And if anybody is wishing chaos on Germany because of insufficient zeal for the Iraq war, he or she should start thinking, for once.

It is not to anybody's advantage to have paralysis in Germany. Even if it's just a period of drift, that is not helpful either. Sensible Americans-- (perhaps that excludes Bushites)-- should be in favor of a strong stable Germany.

The Wall St Journal yesterday predicted that in the event of prolonged stalemate or perhaps even just the Grand Coalition itself, fringe parties on both the Left and Right will be strengthened. That, according to the Journal, is what happened as a result of the last Grand Coalition in the late 1960's.

The Journal today brings up another interesting angle: the German dilemma now is the direct result of conscious American decisions in the immediate postwar period. The imperative then was to prevent the rise of another Hitler. To that end a political system was set up in Germany which required a broad consensus before any controversial move in government. The system was devised to make it possible for states to block federal government initiatives, and vice versa. As the Journal puts it, it is as if Republican governors could systematically block a Democratic Congress and president.

I'd be curious as to whether our German Mudcatters feel this is an accurate portrayal of the German political system or not.

Perhaps the 2 threads on the German political situation could be combined.

Subject: RE: BS: Germany; Grand Coalition?
From: Wilfried Schaum
Date: 22 Sep 05 - 04:09 AM

Ron - thank you for your excellent and emotionless contribution

To that end a political system was set up in Germany which required a broad consensus before any controversial move in government: Sometimes a small majority is sufficient, but I prefer a broad consensus.

The system was devised to make it possible for states to block federal government initiatives, and vice versa:
I don't think it was devised on purpose, but sometimes such situations might happen. Don't forget that our Basic Constituional Law was forged out of some earlier federal constitutions which had failed.
German history plays a greater role here than it is seen abroad. The experiences of Prussian [militaristic] hegemony are still not forgotten over here, nor the consequences of a uniform Reich (wars galore). So the experiences of the German Federation of the 19th prevailed over the Imperial ideology.

Object of a federal constitution is to keep the interests of the federation and the member states alike.
The temporary stalemate has its origin in the mandates the voters (without a broad consensus) gave to the political parties. Now they have the assignment to bite the bullet and to find a broad consensus (though maybe a minimal) to keep the republic reignable and to meet the needs of the people. A hard task, but it must be done.

I don't assess the situation as paralytic; the majorities guarantee that "the show can go on" in the interior. From my experiences on the much lower level of municipial politics it is always possible to find a consensus and to find a compromise if you really are interested in the common welfare. But it always the question of biting the bullet. It has been done before, and I sincerely hope - nay I'm sure - it will be done here, too.

Subject: RE: BS: Germany; Grand Coalition?
From: Wolfgang
Date: 22 Sep 05 - 10:48 AM

All you read now (small coalitions, Jamaica, minority government, toleration by Left, never with....) are the usual noises politicians make. They do it to intimidate the others with an eye to the audience, of course. The idea is to rise the selling price.

What will come is the grand coalition, perhaps with a change of chancellor between parties and likely with new front persons on both sides. In the best case this coalition will tackle what one big party alone can't:
(1) change the federal structure (it is nonsense that 40% of all federal laws have to be approved by the house of the lands in which usually the federal opposition party has the majority)
(2) change the pension system (difficult for one party if the other big party in the opposition claims they could change that without hurting anyone)

We had a factual grand coalition during the last two or three years for the opposition was so strong in the lands that the big reform projects could not be made without the opposition. The real decisions were made in the 'Vermittlungsausschuss' a handful of people from both parties both from the lands and from the federal government.

Both big parties are no so far from each other as it seems. The conservatives are more than glad that Germany is not involved in Iraq. The SPD will be more than glad that they are not alone in having to take the blame for the initial negative consequences of reforms.

Yes, parts of our present constitution were shaped by Allied wishes, but in many cases the Germans alone would have done quite similar things. The idea to have a weak federal government was a consequence of the Hitler years. Understandable then. Sixty years later, in a European context, the situation is different: The European ministers of education are only shaking their heads, for instance, if the German minister cannot negotiate about the text on a European diploma without asking 16 ministers in the lands each of which can veto any compromise.

As a consequence of the grand coalition the fringe parties will get stronger, but perhaps not strong enough to get into the parliament.

Wolfgang

Subject: RE: BS: Germany; Grand Coalition?
From: Ron Davies
Date: 22 Sep 05 - 10:53 PM

The Journal Wednesday said that Schroeder had to "fight his way past obstruction from governors" (heads of Laender) "even when both major parties agreed in principle to an overhaul" (of the welfare state). Does that sound likely?

According to Prof Konrad Jarausch (of the University of North Carolina) overhauling the federal system has been a project since the 1960's. But "it's one of those things you can't resolve, because someone has to give up something". Is that a fair statement?

Subject: RE: BS: Germany; Grand Coalition?
From: Wilfried Schaum
Date: 11 Oct 05 - 04:06 AM

The cat is out of the bag. Yesterday the political leaders of CDU/CSU and SPD have agreed that
1. Mrs Merkel shall be chancellor, her minister for the chancellor's bureau is provided by CDU
2. SPD gets the majority of the cabinet posts (8 vs 6)
3. Parliament's president will also be provided by the CDU

That led to an outcry of disappointment from both parties involved.
Negotiations for the outlining of the politics of the grand coalition will start next Monday and planned to produce results on November 12, so is hoped.

The seminal ministries are manned by the Blacks (economy, technology, education and so on), also defense.
The results of the negotiation committe will have be approved by party congresses. It's a long way ...

Mr Schroeder's political career seems to be at an end; he didn't seem interested in the post of vice chancellor. My humble opinion: Maybe we shall see him again in the UNO ... Nothing definitive has been said until now. The same might hold for Mr Fischer.

Subject: RE: BS: Germany; Grand Coalition?
From: Wolfgang
Date: 24 Nov 05 - 09:44 AM

Angela Merkel is the first female chancellor in German history (found in the GUARDIAN, translated from German; a liberal conservative opinion)

But what interests us all more than anything political about her:
Since the times of Kohl and Gorbachev all German and Russian presidents and chancellors have as a rule ended their meetings with having a sauna session together. Will that go on now or will Putin veto that tradition?

Wolfgang

Subject: RE: BS: Germany; Grand Coalition?
From: alanabit
Date: 24 Nov 05 - 03:15 PM

I think we should be told...

Subject: RE: BS: Germany; Grand Coalition?
From: Ron Davies
Date: 24 Nov 05 - 10:18 PM

Watch for the picture on the cover of Bild Zeitung.

Subject: RE: BS: Germany; Grand Coalition?
From: alanabit
Date: 25 Nov 05 - 04:19 AM

The very thought haunts my dreams! The optimist in me likes to think there are things even the Bild Zeitung would not do...

Subject: RE: BS: Germany; Grand Coalition?
From: DougR
Date: 25 Nov 05 - 01:22 PM

Wolfgang: what is the definition of a liberal conservative?

DougR

Subject: RE: BS: Germany; Grand Coalition?
From: Wilfried Schaum
Date: 25 Nov 05 - 04:13 PM

Quod bonum est tenebimus meliorque petemus.

Oops: We shall keep the good things (proved) and try to find the better.

Nachricht für Wolfgang: Überraschung! Bin heute von der CDU zur FDP gewechselt. Das hat lokale pe4rsönliche Gründe.

Subject: RE: BS: Germany; Grand Coalition?
From: Ron Davies
Date: 25 Nov 05 - 09:39 PM

Stimmt das? Eigentlich passiert es hauefig so, meiner Meinung nach (wenn man wechselt, dann aus persoenlichen Gruenden.)

Subject: RE: BS: Germany; Grand Coalition?
From: Stephen L. Rich
Date: 25 Nov 05 - 11:55 PM

What is the likelyhood of politcal stability in Germany with a coalition running things?

Stephen Lee

Subject: RE: BS: Germany; Grand Coalition?
From: Ernest
Date: 26 Nov 05 - 08:33 AM

Hallo Wilfried: haben wir jetzt einen neoliberalen Mudcatter?
Gruß
Ernest (still conservative)

Subject: RE: BS: Germany; Grand Coalition?
From: alanabit
Date: 26 Nov 05 - 12:01 PM

To answer Stephen's question with my two pennyworth, I should think that for the time being, most of us will reserve judgement. Wolfgang's earlier comment is interesting, because it gives the main reason why the election was held in the first place. The ruling coalition (Green and Social Democrats) had effectively lost power before they actually lost office.
The resulting coalition now could go one of two ways. They could use their virtually unlimited power to drive through reforms, which Germany needs in its economy, education and training system and in its social provision for the unwaged and retired. The hope is that it will behave essentially apolitically and pragmatically, without any dogma or playing to the gallery of its component supporters. That could lead to a strong government, dull politics and likely considerable growth in the medium to long term.
In the worst case scenario, the members of the coalition would indulge in a lot of point scoring, with an eye to the next election. The incompetent and corrupt governing cliques (as in Cologne for example) would be safe from removal by any authority. That would lead to a period of stagnation and even greater mistrust of the politicians than is already the case. In Germany, of all places, no one wants to see that.
For the time being, Germany will remain socially stable. I think we will all be waiting to see whether that will develop into stability or into stagnation. For the time being, partisan politics will be of little use to anyone.

Subject: RE: BS: Germany; Grand Coalition?
From: Wolfgang
Date: 26 Nov 05 - 12:42 PM

I too think that there will be some stability for at least three years. But stability in the worst case could be translated with lack of reforms.

To Doug:
That would be people who are from an American point of view extreme conservatives regarding economics (low taxes, no extra taxes for the rich, close no reins on what capital owners can do) and quite liberal regarding (broadly speaking) human relations/rights (they would be pro choice, for a secular government, against any discrimination of minorities, for a low profile role of military in the society).

Wolfgang