BS: A sigh of relief over German elections

Subject: BS: A sigh of relief over German elections
From: GUEST
Date: 18 Sep 05 - 08:59 PM

I for one am relieved the conservatives didn't sweep into power in Germany as predicted not so long ago. Hopefully, this will slow the movements pushing "reforms" which could result in the EU moving hard right, and joining the ranks of the Brit/American axis of radical conservatism.

I can't help but think this is A Good Thing for the world in the short and long runs.

Subject: RE: BS: A sigh of relief over German elections
From: Wilfried Schaum
Date: 19 Sep 05 - 03:51 AM

A Good Thing for the world in the short and long runs ?

At the 50th anniversary of the Bundeswehr (Federal Atmy) Minister of Defence Struck announced that the Federal Army might go to more missions abroad.

At the 60th anniversary of the end of WWII Cancellor Schroeder announces that the Army might expect to fight wars abroad.

Later on Minister of Defence Struck announces that the nation might await heavily wounded flown back from theatres of war far away. [Didn't speak about the inevitable KIA and MIA.]

One feels reminded of the bloody Imperial parole "by the German character the world shall convalesce" [it rhymes in German].

May I draw your attention to the fact that the Basic Constitutional Law forbids any war of aggression and only allows the defence of the nation?

Anonymous guest, do you prefer these warmongers to a government in peace? You don't seem to have served.

Wilfried, former draftee, conservative

Subject: RE: BS: A sigh of relief over German elections
From: Little Hawk
Date: 19 Sep 05 - 05:24 AM

All constitutions should forbid any war of aggression and allow only the defence of the nation...

(but even if they did, politicians would still make attacks on otheres and call it "defence")

Subject: RE: BS: A sigh of relief over German elections
From: Bunnahabhain
Date: 19 Sep 05 - 06:02 AM

Liberal Democracies do not go to war with each other. I mean real democracies, with elections involving more than one canidate, and only limited corrupion.

More democracy will eventually mean less war.

Subject: RE: BS: A sigh of relief over German elections
From: The Shambles
Date: 19 Sep 05 - 06:08 AM

There is a lot to be said for a benevolent dictatorship.

Subject: RE: BS: A sigh of relief over German elections
From: Bunnahabhain
Date: 19 Sep 05 - 06:48 AM

There is a lot to be said for a benevolent dictatorship.

We have one. He's called Joe Offer....

Subject: RE: BS: A sigh of relief over German elections
From: Wolfgang
Date: 19 Sep 05 - 06:52 AM

A colleague right now had make all passers by a likelihood estimation for the probable coalitions including no government as possibility. I had a look at his data and the interesting thing was that the estimates were extremely different. He had 100% for new elections, a high probability for a big coalition (by me for instance) and many other high estimates.

Even the Jamaica coalition is discussed right now in Germany (proving the starter of this thread wrong). I still consider it quite unlikely but the second most likely option of all others.

Wolfgang

Subject: RE: BS: A sigh of relief over German elections
From: GUEST
Date: 19 Sep 05 - 07:30 AM

Not wrong, Wolfgang. I simply don't share your opinion or Wilfried's.

Since neither of you are representative of the progressive left in Germany, I'm not too terribly concerned with our disagreement in opinion over these matters.

Schroeder kept the nation out of Iraq, and off the track to hegemonic political oblivion currently being pursued in other parts of the world by radical conservative movements trying to impose their view of the world upon the people of it.

And BTW Wolfgang, you fool no one with your "damn lies and statistics".

Subject: RE: BS: A sigh of relief over German elections
From: Wolfgang
Date: 19 Sep 05 - 07:56 AM

BTW, the three left of the middle parties counted together got exactly the same result as 3 years ago.

Wolfgang

Subject: RE: BS: A sigh of relief over German elections
From: GUEST
Date: 19 Sep 05 - 08:10 AM

But the three left of middle parties got a combined vote that is now approaching the percent of the vote each of the two major parties got this election. Which means nearly as many voters cast a vote for leftist governance as voted for centrist and centre right governance. And both of the major parties got less votes in this election than in the last. And this showing by the CDP is one of the worst in it's history.

Your nation is as divided now as is the US. The only difference is your country must form a governing coalition with the left. That offers the world a far better future than having Germany form a governing coalition with the right, IMO.

While Schroeder may not be next chancellor, I'd say there is a good chance SDP will form another coalition government with the left parties. That is a better option for them than facing the voters again in a few months.

Subject: RE: BS: A sigh of relief over German elections
From: GUEST,rarelamb
Date: 19 Sep 05 - 09:00 AM

Ya, thank goodness. From an American perspective, I am so glad that we don't have to worry about a resurgent Germany. I mean could you imagine a Germany without double digit unemployment, forcasted declining population and unfunded 'social(ist) programs'?

Whew, dodged that bullet. I guess Germany and his socialist cousin France can continue their slide into irrelevence.

The question is, will the US come to bail out the continent when the inevitible implosion like the Soviet Union causes civil or continental wide war?

Subject: RE: BS: A sigh of relief over German elections
From: Wolfgang
Date: 19 Sep 05 - 09:30 AM

But the three left of middle parties got a combined vote that is now approaching the percent of the vote each of the two major parties got this election. (19 Sep 05 - 08:10 AM )

19 Sep 05 - 08:10 AM, which three smaller left of the middle parties do you mean? I only count two. Are you fooled by the word 'liberal'?

The SPD (not: SDP) I predict will not form a coalition with the two smaller left parties.

Wolfgang

Subject: RE: BS: A sigh of relief over German elections
From: Wilfried Schaum
Date: 19 Sep 05 - 11:22 AM

rarelamb - can't you read? In my previous post I stated who talks about war now - the Social democrats. Who sent out German soldiers out first after WWII again? The red/green coalition (not the conservatives). And they, too, are campaigning for a permanent seat in the UN Security Council. Soon it will be again "the Germans to the front". For playing war with the big ones you need money, and so the left government was unable to stop the increasing number of unemployed. So be happy with them; I'm not.

Subject: RE: BS: A sigh of relief over German elections
From: GUEST,rarelamb
Date: 19 Sep 05 - 11:57 AM

Lol. Sorry, I was trying to be sarcastic. It was meant to be a little serious and a little funny.

We do live in one world and ideally everyone would be a capitalist. IMO, one of the great tragedies has been China. Half a century with 1.2 billion people not making products for me to buy. I hope for the continuation of that massive human resource to continue up the developemnt chain of production (instead of cheap low quality to more original design, ie go from manufacturing to services). What a richer world it would be with the fruits of the mind rather than the muscle from 1/5 of the world's population.

I find it remarkable that the European powers have/continue to shoot themselves in the foot with all of this socialist nonsense. You would have thought the late 80's and early 90's would have shaken some of the more fool hardy away but alas we see 35 hour work weeks and labor markets as rigid as they ever have been.

The US I fear is following suit, if more slowly down this failed path.

A toast to you my friend and perhaps we will meet someday in New Zealand or Taiwan. For 'Who is John Galt'? I suspect you may know.

Subject: RE: BS: A sigh of relief over German elections
From: Wilfried Schaum
Date: 20 Sep 05 - 11:23 AM

rarelamb - sigh of relief. At first I took you for another Gibson, but I'm glad that it isn't so.
While the lines run hot between the political gangs, we lean back and calmly await the Dresden by-election.
As a head of a poll station I'm just fed up with the counting for a while; because of a lot of untrained helpers we needed nearly 2 hours instead of my usual half (had to count 685 votes for a second time because ten were missing, but I found them!)

What about the socialistic nonsense? In my youth I was a Social Democrat, too, but when I grew older and learned a little bit more about the world ...
There is a joke: Who is 20 years old and isn't a socialist has no heart. Who is 40 years old and is still socialist has no brain.
No harm intended!

Subject: RE: BS: A sigh of relief over German elections
From: Metchosin
Date: 20 Sep 05 - 12:29 PM

And those who can't maintain an equitable balance between both sides by age 50, have no soul.

Subject: RE: BS: A sigh of relief over German elections
From: Ringer
Date: 20 Sep 05 - 01:38 PM

I'm not sure it is a joke, Wilfried; perhaps a witty saying. From "Nice Guys Finish Seventh: False Phrases, Spurious Sayings, and Familiar Misquotations" by Ralph Keyes, 1992:

"An orphan quote [unattributed quote in search of a home] sometimes attributed to Georges Clemenceau is: Any man who is not a socialist at age 20 has no heart. Any man who is still a socialist at age 40 has no head.

The most likely reason is that Bennet Cerf once reported Clemenceau's response to a visitor's alarm about his son being a communist: "If he had not become a Communist at 22, I would have disowned him.   If he is still a Communist at 30, I will do it then."

George Seldes later quoted Lloyd George as having said: "A young man who isn't a socialist hasn't got a heart; an old man who is a socialist hasn't got a head."

The earliest known version of this observation is attributed to mid-nineteenth century historian and statesman François Guizot: "Not to be a republican at 20 is proof of want of heart;   to be one at 30 is proof of want of head."

Variations on this theme were later attributed to Disraeli, Shaw, Churchill, and Bertrand Russell. (I misquoted Churchill to this effect for years.)"

Subject: RE: BS: A sigh of relief over German elections
From: Jim McLean
Date: 20 Sep 05 - 05:55 PM

What it really means is that as one grows older and has responsibilties, being married, having children, grandchildren, mortgages possibly, one is less inclined to be confrontational. In my youth I was jailed as a conscientious objector. Would I go to jail now in protest about Council Tax? I'm not sure.

Subject: RE: BS: A sigh of relief over German elections
From: akenaton
Date: 20 Sep 05 - 06:51 PM

Yes Jim...they call it being absorbed by the system.
But fortunately some people never learn "sense".

I have a friend who is over eighty and a real old time socialist.
When he talks of his beliefs, his eyes still burn with the certainty of youth and he can still inspire people. He knows "its comin' yet".

I dont think people like you ever sell out....Ake

Subject: RE: BS: A sigh of relief over German elections
From: McGrath of Harlow
Date: 20 Sep 05 - 07:09 PM

As we get older most of us are more likely to focuis on prirtecting the things we value which are in danger, rather than trying to bring about the changes we might like but don't seem achievable in our time.

If that's what's meant by "conservative" in this context, the quote is true enough. And by refusing to vote to destroy things like decent public services and working rights and so forth the German voters have demonstrated they are sensibly conservative where it matters.

It is interesting that teh term "neo-liberal" in Europe seems to mean something not that far removed what what is descriubed as "neo-conservative" in the Staes. In both cases that "neo" gives it away - the agenda of these people are neither liberal nor conservative.

......................

Looking at the arithmetic of the results, it appears as if the only way the Christian Democrats could form a workable administration would have to be in a Grand Coalition with the Social Democrats. Otherwise, even with the Free Democrats on board, the parties ranked against them would be able to constantly defeat a Christian Democrat administration.

The Social Democrats, on the other hand, could have a chance of running a minority adminisatration, since the number of issues on which the Left party could be relied on to vote with the Christian Democrats would be pretty small, I would think.

But with Dresden still to vote, perhaps the arithmetic could look different in a couple of weeks...

Subject: RE: BS: A sigh of relief over German elections
From: Wolfgang
Date: 21 Sep 05 - 05:09 AM

I can't see me going Wilfried's political way though I still have some years left to be as old as he is now. Before the last election (2002) there were two online tests in DER SPIEGEL.

(1) Who should you vote for? The test did compare my responses to statements like "should out of wedlock mothers get..." with the programmes of the parties. Quite to my surprise the best fit of my opinions was with the PDS (former communists), then with the Greens, then with the SPD. Being stubborn I didn't vote for the PDS but did vote Red/Green.

(2) Who would your wallet vote for? They wanted to know my salary, whether I own a house or flat for to tell me from which party I personally would profit most. Not at all to my surprise the FDP was the party which would make my wallet 'happiest'. I hate that party. I'd never vote for the 'party for those who earn more than others' as they have called themselves. They call themselves 'liberals' (without 'neo') but as McGrath says that gives a very very wrong impression.

Back to Germany in general: Dresden may give the SPD one more seat so that the CDU/CSU only has two seats advantage. Can the Dresden result make the CDU/CSU lose the three seat advantage? Yes, if more than 92% of the whole electorate in Dresden vote SPD. That means No, for all practical purposes.

There will be either a grand coalition or a minority government for a short time before new elections. Everything else makes no sense.
(1) The Jamaica coalition would put off all Green voters like me who did not vote for them to help form a conservative government.
(2) The traffic light coalition would damage the FDP so much that next time they might get less than 5 %.
(3) The coalition of the three parties left of the middle (Red/Green/DarkRed) is at present nonsense and would damage both the LEFT and the SPD. The hate for the populist Lafontaine is too strong in the SPD.

So, there'll be a grand coalition. Everything you read now from both parties is only meant to give them a better start for the negotiations. The SPD will not accept being the junior partner (with only two seats less), neither will the CDU/CSU. So they might settle for a shared period (two years of chancellor for you, two years for us). They both in that case may be ready to sacrifice the frontperson, the CDU more readily, for they blame the bad result on Merkel. In the SPD, it will be Schroeder's decision and he may say no to such a construction.

The CDU chancellor in such a case would be either Koch or Wulff, the SPD chancellor would be Steinbrueck, with a remote chance for Beck.

Wolfgang

Subject: RE: BS: A sigh of relief over German elections
From: MudGuard
Date: 21 Sep 05 - 05:24 AM

The Social Democrats, on the other hand, could have a chance of running a minority adminisatration, since the number of issues on which the Left party could be relied on to vote with the Christian Democrats would be pretty small, I would think.

The problem with that is that in the second house (Bundesrat) the CDU/CSU has the majority of votes so even if the SPD/Greens could pass something in Bundestag with the help of the Lefts, it will be blocked later in the process ...

Subject: RE: BS: A sigh of relief over German elections
From: mooman
Date: 21 Sep 05 - 05:36 AM

Funny Jim... I seem to have become more radical as I have got older!

Not sure what I think yet about the German results, I'll have to think about it a bit more...

Peace

moo

Subject: RE: BS: A sigh of relief over German elections
From: Wolfgang
Date: 21 Sep 05 - 06:00 AM

A minority government is a possibility but would lead to new elections soon.

Wolfgang

Subject: RE: BS: A sigh of relief over German elections
From: robomatic
Date: 21 Sep 05 - 09:45 AM

I think Germany's place in the world is very far from irrelevant. Being a pretty ignorant American, I have little idea of what the current 'stalemate' forebodes, but the lack of direction does indeed appear to be foreboding, not just for Germany, but for Europe, and I do not feel that the US and Europe are in a zero-sum game, I think we need to cooperate.

Sorry to be so damn serious, I'm too ignorant in this field to try to be humorous.

Subject: RE: BS: A sigh of relief over German elections
From: McGrath of Harlow
Date: 21 Sep 05 - 05:41 PM

I don't getvbtehb impressioin that the current US adnministration is in the business of "cooperating" with anyone. Subservience, Tony Blair style maybe - but that's not the same thing.

Subject: RE: BS: A sigh of relief over German elections
From: Ringer
Date: 22 Sep 05 - 07:38 AM

The (London) Times has an interesting op-ed today. Click Here.

I thought it quite interesting, at least.

Why, I wonder, do both Merkel & Schroeder want to be Chancellor? Sounds like the job from hell, to me.

Subject: RE: BS: A sigh of relief over German elections
From: Paul Burke
Date: 22 Sep 05 - 07:56 AM

I don't seem to have radically changed with age. But then, I never claimed to have a head, or to give one.

Germany's problems stem from Kohl's over- hasty anschluss with East Germany, he wanted his place in history. I also rather fear that the European Union's prtecipitate admission of eastern european countries will do little good, either to them or us. A 'second division' with favourable trade conditions, but promotion based on convergence of the economies might have been a better choice.

And as for Turkey....

Subject: RE: BS: A sigh of relief over German elections
From: Wilfried Schaum
Date: 23 Sep 05 - 03:00 AM

There are more problems, stemming from earlier decades: main problem is the old age pension scheme, changed in the 50ies; "election gifts" (all parties) when nobody knew how to pay them in the future, and the resulting debts, and so on ...
The "hasty anschluss" was the wish of the entire people with a few exceptions. One of them was Mr Lafontaine, thence minister president of the first accession state. He knew for sure that the reunification would cost him the government aid he received for his state because the former socialist lands needed them more.
Why, I wonder, do both Merkel & Schroeder want to be Chancellor?: the greed for power. Future will show what will predominate: Power or working for the people's best.

Subject: RE: BS: A sigh of relief over German elections
From: Wolfgang
Date: 23 Sep 05 - 06:12 AM

Two articles translated into English:

Dissecting the Great Merkel Flop

Some views from German papers why the opposition did not win despite general discontent with the government

The Death of German Conservatism
...its time to write the obituary of German conservatism

I wish he was right but he ain't. Nevertheless some interesting thoughts.

Wolfgang

Subject: RE: BS: A sigh of relief over German elections
From: Paul Burke
Date: 23 Sep 05 - 10:12 AM

The "hasty anschluss" was the wish of the entire people with a few exceptions.

Vox populi is not necessarily vox dei, and Kohl was definitely pushing hard for it. I bet you wish you'd left well alone now, though how the border could have been held I can't say.

One of the interesting features this time round was the SDP support from the east- reports in the UK over the last few years have tended to concentrate on the neonazis in that part of the country. In the aftermath, I've not seen any reports of how they did.

Subject: RE: BS: A sigh of relief over German elections
From: Wolfgang
Date: 23 Sep 05 - 10:38 AM

The NPD had 1,6 % all over Germany (an increase from 0.4% but this time other neonazi parties have not run, so the comparison isn't quite correct), in the East, however, they got 3.6 %.

The pure protest votes this time went mostly to the 'Left' party.

Wolfgang

Subject: RE: BS: A sigh of relief over German elections
From: Wolfgang
Date: 23 Sep 05 - 11:21 AM

The NPD had 1,6 % all over Germany (an increase from 0.4% but this time other neonazi parties have not run, so the comparison isn't quite correct), in the East, however, they got 3.6 %.

The pure protest votes this time went mostly to the 'Left' party.

Wolfgang

Subject: RE: BS: A sigh of relief over German elections
From: Ernest
Date: 23 Sep 05 - 12:55 PM

And don`t forget that the Left respectively Lafontaine also attracted right-wing voters by using the word "Fremdarbeiter" (=foreign workers, the term was used by the Nazis).