"Scottish First Minister Alex Salmond has announced an independence referendum bill as the centrepiece of the SNP's plans for the coming year.(2010) He probably wont try it now, but if he did and won, by 1%, Scotland would be independent."

In reality the SNP administration is a minority administration and as the Unionist parties as a whole have a majority of seats (the Greens and Scottish Socialist Party also favour independence)then in this parliament the Nats have no chance of bringing forward a referendum unless they can bring one of the three main unionist parties on board.

Labour had previously suggested that because the constitution wasn't devolved that Westminster could block any referendum. That has now been abandoned as they seemed to concede that referendums are just consultative and that a devolved government can indeed consult the people. The SNP's position is that Westminster Parliamentary Sovereignty does not over-ride the sovereignty of the Scottish people - and this has by precedent already been suggested in a previous Scottish Court ruling. Hence the Nats would claim that a YES vote by whatever margin in a consultative referendum (a result which would be by no means certain) would give them the mandate to negotiate independence from the UK. The unionist parties don't seem to be denying this! Their plan seems to simply be avoid any referendum. The issue isn't really debated as unionist strategy seems to be just regard it as an irrelevant sideshow.

However you are right in that despite the political manoueverings there is no suggestion from anyone anywhere that the British state would try to keep Scotland within the union by force. For a start the British people would never countenance that. The idea that the UK wants to cling on to every bit of territory is nonsense. I think a UK government would run a vigorous political campaign to keep the union of Great Britain intact - but would run no similar campaign as far as the union of Great Britain with Northern Ireland goes. Indeed the British state and the British people as a whole would probably be delighted and more than a tad relieved should the people of Northern Ireland decide to join a united Ireland.