Raedwulf,

Thank you for your response.

Last point first- Union of Concerned Scientists state 6 months to two years to develop thermonuclear warhead that can be used on an ICBM.Given they already exist and even NKoreans can read/access data, I suspect a lot shorter, but will use the longer time for discussion.

What is your problem with "deterrence cannot eliminate the non-trivial chance that North Korea launches a nuclear strike by accident. " ?

The discussion is that EVEN WITH NO INTENT to start a war, the chance of nuclear launch is 2% to 25%, and that is what his estimates are based on. There have been at least three known US crashes with live warheads, and the various false alerts that could have been catastrophic- Major war averted by either saftey devices ( that I doubt are on the NKorean bombs) or by use of the Hot Line.

A previous company I worked for was involved with the Hot line ( BFEC) ,
and I worked both SDIO and BMDO programs, so I can judge the chances of intercepting a launched missle better than most here.

You have declared "The facts are dubious; the analysis garbage." I have seen no evidence beyond your statement of that.

I would LOVE for the premise to be proven false- so far, I have seen only "I don't like it, so it is garbage"

As for James, see clickey on previous message