So we have the no-confidence vote this evening.

I anticipate that Johnson will win narrowly.

However, were I advising the Conservatives on their best strategy to win the next election, I would say dump Johnson and elect a new leader from outside the cabinet (though Mordant might do, because she is not so well known to the public.)

Whoever becomes PM, drop everyone from the cabinet who has a prominent public role, especially those who have been going round defending Johnson over Partygate and accusations of lying.

Elect a member of cabinet, or keep people who are thought by the public to be willing to lie about Johnson out of self-interest and you will just make people think the problem is the Conservative party as a whole. With a PM from outside the cabinet and a strong clear out, you might be able to convince enough voters that there has been a fresh start.