Lighter said, "Today's CNN/NYT poll shows Trump leading Biden by several points in most swing states."

If you look at it a bit differently, the poll could simply show the preferred party, Republican v. Democrats. At present, Trump is presumed to be the nominated candidate for the Reps but it might not happen. Meanwhile, voters could simply be choosing between the parties. Unfortunately, whichever party is currently in power is often not the preferred party in polling results, i.e. the grass is always greener on the other side of the fence.

Personally, I think the big decider will be if Trump goes to prison. When it's decision time, hopefully a significant chunk of the voters will say they don't want a convicted criminal running the country. It's all what-ifs at present.