BS: A hard winter ahead?

Subject: RE: BS: A hard winter ahead?
From: GUEST,MMario
Date: 23 Oct 03 - 04:11 PM

heck sinsull - you KNOW that many years we get snow before Halloween - and snow before columbus Day isn't THAT unusual

Subject: RE: BS: A hard winter ahead?
From: Metchosin
Date: 23 Oct 03 - 04:08 PM

We ended our drought in Southern BC about a week and half ago with a rainfall that exceedeed the hundred year record. Lots of flooding, rail and highway bridges washed away and a couple of communities totally cut off.

If the record rainfall this fall is any indication of extremes, maybe we'll exceed our record snowfall for Victoria of 4 feet in just over one day in 1996.

Subject: RE: BS: A hard winter ahead?
From: SINSULL
Date: 23 Oct 03 - 10:57 AM

Aw Crap! It's snowing. October 23rd and it's snowing. Damn!

Subject: RE: BS: A hard winter ahead?
From: muppett
Date: 23 Oct 03 - 10:21 AM

It takes more than one swallow to make a Summer, but does it take more than one gritter to make a winter?

Subject: RE: BS: A hard winter ahead?
From: sian, west wales
Date: 23 Oct 03 - 10:18 AM

A couple of years ago Lake Erie was very very low which warmed the water up which meant a population explosion of some sort of muscles (tiger clams or something) which turns out to be a favourite food of swans. My mother lives in Port Colborne on Gravelly Bay (NW end of Lake Erie) and for a couple of weeks the tourists flocked to see the swans which were flocking to the Bay - I think there were about 3,000 or something. The more acceptable face of climate change, I guess.

sian

Subject: RE: BS: A hard winter ahead?
From: muppett
Date: 23 Oct 03 - 10:13 AM

Had frost on my lawn for 3rd morning in a row this morning. (in Bradford, W. Yorks), looking forward to doing some proper sledging this winter with my Grandson.

Subject: RE: BS: A hard winter ahead?
From: Rapparee
Date: 23 Oct 03 - 09:05 AM

Yeah, it's pretty bad. We'll have water rationing enforced by Spring at the latest, and probably before the first of the year. One of the city's pumps, near a high school, is close to pumping up mud now and in that case the school will have to close. Another is being polluted by a plume of diesel fuel from the railroad yards (there is a big one here) and the well is have to be relocated -- the only question is how much the railroad is going to pay to replace the well they polluted.

If you can imagine a lake-type reservoir, one that comes several hundred acres, with the water so low that you have to walk a hundred or more yards from the shore to reach the edge of the water, you'll get an idea of how low the water supply is.

And it's not just Southeastern Idaho. Colorado, Utah, Western Wyoming, parts of Montana, Alberta, Manitoba, California -- lots of places. Of course, it's not whole provinces or states; I understand that Western Idaho is in pretty good shape. If that's the case, there will be a plentiful supply of lentils in the US, but potatoes might be a bit scrawny and scarce.

I should note that wildlife is dying too, or moving from drought areas to better water holes.

Subject: RE: BS: A hard winter ahead?
From: sian, west wales
Date: 23 Oct 03 - 08:18 AM

Interesting, Rapaire. I was reading an article in Canadian Geographic a couple of months ago which had some satellite shots of some county in ... Manitoba? Prairies anyway. There was one from a couple of years ago, and one from 2003. The visible difference in greens to brown was shocking.

sian

Subject: RE: BS: A hard winter ahead?
From: Auxiris
Date: 23 Oct 03 - 07:39 AM

Hi, all: this morning we had SNOW in eastern France, which is about a month and a half early. . .

cheers,

Aux

Subject: RE: BS: A hard winter ahead?
From: Rapparee
Date: 22 Oct 03 - 03:39 PM

Pocatello, Idaho. Southeast Idaho. High desert country.

Subject: RE: BS: A hard winter ahead?
From: sian, west wales
Date: 22 Oct 03 - 11:02 AM

My aunt in north Wales always says that crows nests low in trees means a hard winter.

Rapaire, where are you? States?

sian

Subject: RE: BS: A hard winter ahead?
From: Rapparee
Date: 22 Oct 03 - 08:07 AM

Seriously....

The predictions are for 50% or less of average snowfall this winter, exacerbating a four-year drought. The reservoirs are so low that in some of them you can walk nearly to the middle; some are dry. Jackson Lake, up Grand Tetons NP, is down 25 feet this year from last. Emergency water rules will be in effect by the first of Spring at the latest. It could be cold, but that doesn't bring moisture (trees are following dogs around).

Something I've always wondered....

We look at the actions of squirrels, the fuzz on caterpillars, the skin on fruits and vegetables, and other things and conclude that there will be a mild or hard winter. How do they know? I've watched squirrels and they are ALWAYS running around storing food (and forgetting where their stash is as well). I've seen years when the caterpillars were predicting an easy winter and there were blizzards (1978 comes to mind). That the shallots around Arles are thickskinned might mean nothing about the weather in Bruges or Berlin or Birmingham or Blackfoot.

Is this because we attribute some sort of "supernatural" knowledge to non-human things? Or to give us an excuse for doing what we should be doing -- preparing for bad weather and cold?

Subject: RE: BS: A hard winter ahead?
From: Dave Bryant
Date: 22 Oct 03 - 07:24 AM

It seems strange at this time of year, but in my part of the UK, the immediate problem seems more likely to be draught. It's only due to the fact that we'd had a reasonable amount of rain for the previous two years that we've managed without hose-pipe bans or rationing through the summer. The forcasts keep promising rain, but except for the odd shower there's been very little. A long, hard freeze-up would make things much worse, as there would probably be more wastage and supply problems due to burst pipes and mains.

Subject: RE: BS: A hard winter ahead?
From: GUEST,KB
Date: 22 Oct 03 - 07:16 AM

Pat - this will be my 3rd open-canoe trip (& the others were only 1 day each) - and EACH TIME I swear I'll never do it again! At least we are better at steering it now - to start with Mark & I were constantly zigzagging across the river & swearing foully at eachother.

Subject: RE: BS: A hard winter ahead?
From: Partridge
Date: 22 Oct 03 - 06:57 AM

Oh, Kris, rather you than me brrrrrrrr

pat x

Subject: RE: BS: A hard winter ahead?
From: GUEST,KB
Date: 22 Oct 03 - 06:42 AM

Its been so lovely and mild up until now - and now suddenly its turned cold. Typical! Just when I'm about to go on a 2-day open-canoe trip in Shropshire....... - better get some thermals....

Subject: RE: BS: A hard winter ahead?
From: Kaleea
Date: 22 Oct 03 - 06:38 AM

My dear, departed Grandad always said to watch the squirrels, if one happened to be a city dweller, in order to predict the kind of Winter one would get. If the squirrels seem much busier than they have in previous Fall seasons, & if they have really bushy tails--it will be a hard Winter.
    I began to notice back in early Sept. that the squirrels sure were getting a head start on burying their stash of winter provisions. Then I began to notice that squirrels all across town seemed to have quite bushy tails, & a thicker than usual body.
    He also said that if we had a mild Spring, Summer & Fall, we'd really pay for it in the Winter.
    We'd all better begin to follow the example of the squirrels & lay in plenty of Winter necessities & find that snow shovel to dig out our boots & parkas. How's your antifreeze level? Anybody seen the Northern lights lately?

Subject: RE: BS: A hard winter ahead?
From: Auxiris
Date: 22 Oct 03 - 05:47 AM

Hi, open mike: According to the late, much-missed Gamble Rogers, the rhyme is as follows:   

"Red on black, friend of Jack;

Red on yellow, kill a fellow,

Black on head, you're dead"



As for predicting a hard winter, there are signs of such a thing here in France, too. Thicker, harder skins on shallots, earlier thick fur coats on our two cats, birds visiting the feeder before we had put anything out and then coming and tapping on the kitchen window to ask for a handout, cranes and geese heading south earlier than usual and so on. Brrrrr! A welcome relief from the hotter than hell summer, though!   

cheers,

Aux

Subject: RE: BS: A hard winter ahead?
From: Liz the Squeak
Date: 22 Oct 03 - 02:34 AM

Everything in my garden is saying it's going to be bloody cold. Not necessarily snowy, but bloody cold. The Bastard Service tree has been stripped of the berries already, most before they even fattened up, the pyrocantha is being reduced to stalks and even the two yew berries were being eyed up by a young tit at the weekend. The holly berries are scarce this year, but that could be to do with the cold snap we had after an early spring this year.

It's October, we're supposed to be having rain and cloud - instead we've had clear blue skies, cold, sunny days and no rain since September. I had to water the garden last week, and I'll do it again at the weekend.

I know that the sloes and blackberries were ready for picking in late August/early Sept, there won't be any left by now for making sloe gin or jam. It's only the hard fruits that are left now and they are being decimated by the birds. I've not seen a single wasp since my birthday and that's unusual. I suspect they have already gorged on the soft fruits and insects and gone to hibernation early.

And the surest sign it's cold out? It's only October but I've started wearing my boots again.... last year it was sandals until St Nicholas' day!

LTS

Subject: RE: BS: A hard winter ahead?
From: LadyJean
Date: 22 Oct 03 - 02:12 AM

I took my leather jacket to the cleaners yesterday. They say I won't get it back for two weeks. So, I know the next two weeks will be really really cold. Once I've paid through the nose to get my jacket back it should warm up.

Subject: RE: BS: A hard winter ahead?
From: Gareth
Date: 21 Oct 03 - 06:42 PM

Arnie - in 1966 I was fishing in Aberdeen Harbour in AUGUST. It snowed then.

Gareth

Subject: RE: BS: A hard winter ahead?
From: nutty
Date: 21 Oct 03 - 05:29 PM

The prophets of doom were on TV today bemoaning the fact that, because the earth was so dry, the winter wheat was not germinating properly and rain was desperately needed in many parts of the UK.

Subject: RE: BS: A hard winter ahead?
From: LilyFestre
Date: 21 Oct 03 - 05:23 PM

The Farmer's Almanac is also predicting a hard winter, both in terms of temperatures and snow. :)

Michelle

Subject: RE: BS: A hard winter ahead?
From: Rapparee
Date: 21 Oct 03 - 05:02 PM

I dunno, the Wooly Mammoths around here haven't started migrating south yet as I understand they usually have by this time most years. Beavers are swimming around without any sticks in their mouths, and as we all know the number of sticks a beaver carries indicates the inches of snow that will fall. The box elder bugs are still around in great numbers, too.

I was talking with a Shoshone a couple of days ago who predicted a long, hard winter, contrary to all the signs above. I asked him why, he responded that "you white men are piling up lots and lots of firewood."

Subject: RE: BS: A hard winter ahead?
From: mack/misophist
Date: 21 Oct 03 - 04:31 PM

Arnie: re jack-knifed lorries: Imagine a lorrie with 20 tonnes of goods in the back. Now imagine the back wheels slipping while the front brakes hold. Simple, isn't it? As far as I know, they don't have four wheel, anti lock brakes for semi's.

Subject: RE: BS: A hard winter ahead?
From: open mike
Date: 21 Oct 03 - 11:41 AM

yes i was gonna mention the wooly bear caterpillars
can supposedly foretell the weather by the stripes..
how does that go exactly? They are baby isabella moths, BTW
"80%accurate!"
weather notebook
( I always forget the exact rhyme to remember how
to tell a snake by its stripes as well--
scarlet king snake v.s. coral snake)
something like red and black friendly jack
red and yellow kill a fellow...
or as found on a web page-iu hope it is right!!
Red next to Black - is safe for Jack;
Red next to Yellow - will kill any fellow.

Subject: RE: BS: A hard winter ahead?
From: GUEST,MMario
Date: 21 Oct 03 - 10:45 AM

the wooly bear I found at getaway was predicting a long winter...

Subject: RE: BS: A hard winter ahead?
From: sian, west wales
Date: 21 Oct 03 - 09:59 AM

Seems to me that it's a hard winter looming if the birds strip the berries bare after the first freeze/frost. So keep an eye on your holly ...

sian

Subject: RE: BS: A hard winter ahead?
From: The Barden of England
Date: 21 Oct 03 - 08:18 AM

1987 was the last bad one in Kent, so we're probably due for one. I just want that summer back again please - it made people so happy.

Subject: BS: A hard winter ahead?
From: Arnie
Date: 21 Oct 03 - 06:16 AM

Chaos around Aberdeen today with just 4 inches of snow on the ground. Jack-knifed lorries all over the place blocking the roads. (Why are there always jack-knifed lorries??) Anyway, October seems pretty early for snow in the UK. My holly tree is absolutely full of berries and this is said to be a sure sign of a hard winter. However it is always full of berries and most winters here in Kent are v. mild with hardly any snow. Now in the late '70's and early '80's we had some stupendous snowfalls in Kent with villages cut off for days, but over the last decade hardly anything. Following a record-breaking hot summer, could we finally be in for a return of a winter when it will be worthwhile excavating the sledge from the back of the garden shed?? Last time we had enough snow to use it, the kids were in their early teens. Now they've left home.......