BS: New Contradictory Poll Results Out

Subject: RE: BS: New Contradictory Poll Results Out
From: GUEST
Date: 18 Sep 04 - 09:14 AM

The reasons why the polls matter, is because of the nature of the mainstream media coverage of the"horse race" aspect of the presidential race. Now that we are nearing the finish (thank god) of this election, the Washington punditry is already attempting to declare Kerry dead in the water (if they accept the Gallup results) or dead in the water unless Nader pulls out (if they accept everybody else's poll results).

I do think it is significant that even in the polls showing a statistical tie, that Bush seems to still have the edge over Kerry in some important questions (notably on Iraq now because the Reps have managed to convince enough gullible Americans that the war on Iraq is the war on terrorism), and because Kerry has lost so much ground on the economy, an area where he was far ahead of Bush last spring.

The Bushites are now busy lowering everybody's expectations of how he'll do in the debates. But I swear to god, is John Kerry TRYING to lose this election? It seems his campaign can do nothing right, because Kerry, the messenger, is awful.

Subject: RE: BS: New Contradictory Poll Results Out
From: Nerd
Date: 18 Sep 04 - 12:59 AM

I think pdq already made that pun, MG.

A Pew poll is one you can have faith in.

It takes lots of gall to believe a gall-up poll.

Sorry, that sucked. But it was just as good as your lame-ass puns!

Subject: RE: BS: New Contradictory Poll Results Out
From: Once Famous
Date: 17 Sep 04 - 11:19 PM

I hear the Pew poll smells.

Subject: RE: BS: New Contradictory Poll Results Out
From: Bobert
Date: 17 Sep 04 - 10:33 PM

Polls don't mean jack and elections are right behind....

Bobert

Subject: RE: BS: New Contradictory Poll Results Out
From: dianavan
Date: 17 Sep 04 - 09:29 PM

I agree with PoppaGator - it will probably depend upon voter turnout. Thats why its important to vote and to help old people, single moms, etc, get to the polls. Offer to drive your neighbor(s)!

I also understand that it is so close, that Americans living abroad could, in fact, decide this one. Seems the dems know this and are urging us to vote. I think its a very real possibility because most of us living abroad detest what Bush has done to the American image. It is also possible that we are more immune to the propaganda.

I wonder if the polls include us?

d

Subject: RE: BS: New Contradictory Poll Results Out
From: pdq
Date: 17 Sep 04 - 04:45 PM

A "Gallop" poll - a progressive poll showing the winner of a race.

A "Pew" poll - shows what is left on the ground when the race is over!

Subject: RE: BS: New Contradictory Poll Results Out
From: Bev and Jerry
Date: 17 Sep 04 - 04:28 PM

The most interesting thing about these polls is that most people (about two out of three) think Bush really screwed up in Iraq. But, the majority also say Bush would do a better job in Iraq than Kerry. So, how bad a job must people think Kerry would do in Iraq?

Bev and Jerry

Subject: RE: BS: New Contradictory Poll Results Out
From: PoppaGator
Date: 17 Sep 04 - 04:14 PM

This morning's "Today" show (NBC) included a feature on this discrepancy.

Apparently, the difference is based upon assumptions regarding voter turnout -- if the usual low percentage of eligible voters actually shows up at the polls, Bush does very well. If larger numbers vote, Kerry wins. The competing polling orgnizations base their results on different tacit assumptions on turnout.

Subject: RE: BS: New Contradictory Poll Results Out
From: Peace
Date: 17 Sep 04 - 04:09 PM

True, Doug. True.

Subject: RE: BS: New Contradictory Poll Results Out
From: DougR
Date: 17 Sep 04 - 04:05 PM

Well, after all, Gallop hasn't had much experience.

DougR

Subject: RE: BS: New Contradictory Poll Results Out
From: Ebbie
Date: 17 Sep 04 - 03:14 PM

Here's a figure I like: Evidently on Paula Zahn's show she always posts a poll on the issue of the day. Night before last, the question was: On the issue of Iraq, which candidate would you be more likely to vote for?

Mind you, this is NOT an official poll but this is how the numbers came in:

Bush: 6 %
Kerry: 86 %
No effect: 3 %

Love it. I would love to see him blown out of the water, metaphorically speaking.

Subject: RE: BS: New Contradictory Poll Results Out
From: pdq
Date: 17 Sep 04 - 02:38 PM

A 10-foot Yugoslav?

Subject: RE: BS: New Contradictory Poll Results Out
From: Peace
Date: 17 Sep 04 - 02:36 PM

'"a 10-foot pole"'

Then who would touch it?

Subject: RE: BS: New Contradictory Poll Results Out
From: McGrath of Harlow
Date: 17 Sep 04 - 02:18 PM

What always puzzles me is the way it always gets assumed that being ahead in the polls helps a candidate.

I'd have thought it'd be just as likely to work the other way - you'd have people say "Well, if he's going to win anyway, I won't bother to vote for him, I'm not all that keen on him anyway" and even, of the trailing candidate "Well, no harm in voting for him, even if I'm not too sure about him - stop the other fella getting too smug if his majority isn't too big."

Subject: RE: BS: New Contradictory Poll Results Out
From: GUEST,MMario
Date: 17 Sep 04 - 02:10 PM

all of which information is totally irrelevant unless you know WHAT questions were asked, of WHOM, and how responses were interpreted.

or else you get polls with results like:

"Ninety-nine out of a hundred prefer Campbells soup" - where the question asked is - "Which would you prefer for dinner- Campbell's soup or live maggots?"

Subject: RE: BS: New Contradictory Poll Results Out
From: Charley Noble
Date: 17 Sep 04 - 11:52 AM

Now if someone would use as a survey instrument "a 10-foot pole" then we might really have something to rely on. Geez, I was about to give up and now I'll have to keep working up until Election Day. What a bummer!

Charley Noble

Subject: RE: BS: New Contradictory Poll Results Out
From: Nerd
Date: 17 Sep 04 - 11:35 AM

Fo rwhat it's worth, the Gallup poll is way out of where most polls fall on this, however:

The new Harris Interactive/Wall Street Journal poll, completed on Sept. 13, shows Kerry with 48 percent, Bush with 47 percent and Ralph Nader with 2 percent.

The most recent poll by the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press shows the Bush lead falling precipitously during the past week. Between Sept. 8 and Sept. 10, Bush was ahead of Kerry by 54 to 38 among "likely voters" -- but between Sept. 11 and Sept. 14, that gap diminished to Bush 47 versus Kerry 46.

The Economist released a new YouGov poll, which employs online technology developed by a British survey firm, and found Bush ahead of Kerry by a single point, 47 to 46.

Democracy Corps, run by James Carville and Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg, completed a new poll of 1,003 voters on Sept. 14, which also showed Bush one point ahead, 49 to 48 percent.

The latest survey by Investor's Business Daily and the Christian Science Monitor, completed Sept. 12, actually shows Kerry ahead by two points among registered voters and tied with Bush among "likely" voters.

Subject: RE: BS: New Contradictory Poll Results Out
From: GUEST
Date: 17 Sep 04 - 10:02 AM

The North Poll showed that despite the lack of penguins in the Arctic, most Polar Bears prefer a Big Mac to driving a Ford.

Subject: BS: New Contradictory Poll Results Out
From: GUEST
Date: 17 Sep 04 - 08:48 AM

Well, this clears things right up. Nice to see the "experts" so agreeable, isn't it?

From AP:

"WASHINGTON A new Gallup poll being released today gives President Bush a huge 14-point lead over challenger John Kerry.

But that's sharply different from a Pew Research Center poll released just yesterday. It shows Bush losing his convention bounce, with the race once again neck and neck. Pew director Andrew Kohut says after months of deadlock, voter opinion is now unsettled. He says that's going to mean more variation in the polls.

A Harris poll out yesterday also shows the race even. But the Gallup survey gives Bush a 54-to-40 percent lead over Kerry in a three-way matchup in which Ralph Nader gets three percent.

The Pew poll had also given Bush a big bump coming out of the New York convention, but Kohut says the closeness now underscores Bush's vulnerability on Iraq and the economy.

Copyright 2004 Associated Press."