BS: Track the polls

Subject: RE: BS: Track the polls
From: DougR
Date: 20 Oct 04 - 04:33 PM

Clairification: numbers, not figures (don't want to confuse anyone).

DougR

Subject: RE: BS: Track the polls
From: DougR
Date: 20 Oct 04 - 04:32 PM

I think the most reliable polls are those of voters who are most likely to vote.

Wolfgang: boy, you DO like figures don't you? :>)

DougR

Subject: RE: BS: Track the polls
From: McGrath of Harlow
Date: 20 Oct 04 - 02:43 PM

When you're dealing with tiny percentages you'd need a much bigger sample to be at all reliable.

What's not clear is whether these figures are based on what candidate people prefer, and how far on the likelihood of people actually voting for the candidate they prefer.

Subject: RE: BS: Track the polls
From: Wolfgang
Date: 20 Oct 04 - 11:44 AM

The margin of error with the small samples they use is about 3 %.

Wolfgang

Subject: RE: BS: Track the polls
From: GUEST
Date: 20 Oct 04 - 11:03 AM

Interesting that Nader can poll as high as 2% some weeks, and 0% others, including as recently as October 6.

Pollsters aren't getting much traction with these numbers, much less any respect from the electorate.

Subject: RE: BS: Track the polls
From: Wolfgang
Date: 20 Oct 04 - 10:02 AM

Not 'all' polls, that's wrong, but all that did include Nader.

W.

Subject: RE: BS: Track the polls
From: Wolfgang
Date: 20 Oct 04 - 10:00 AM

These are all Ohio polls found on that site and not just the selected one in which the Nader percentage is largest. The three numbers after the word Ohio are the percentages for Kerry, Bush, Nader in that order.

Wolfgang

Kerry, Bush, Nader

Ohio,45,47,3,Oct 18,,,,,,,,Opinion Dynamics-3

Ohio,48,51,0,Oct 18,,,,,,,,Zogby-6

Ohio,43,51,1,Oct 11,,,,,,,,Strategic Vision (R)-3

Ohio,48,47,1,Oct 6,,,,,,,,American Res. Group-3

Ohio,49,49,0,Oct 5,,,,,,,,Zogby-6

Ohio,49,46,2,Sep 28,,,,,,,,Gallup-4

Ohio,44,48,2,Sep 22,,,,,,,,Opinion Dynamics-2

Ohio,46,46,1,Sep 23,,,,,,,,Lake Snell Perry (D)-5

Ohio,46,48,1,Sep 20,,,,,,,,American Res. Group-4

Ohio,47,50,0,Sep 17,,,,,,,,Zogby-5

Ohio,43,54,2,Sep 18,,,,,,,,Univ. of Cincinnati-7

Ohio,42,49,2,Sep 15,,,,,,,,Mason-Dixon-2

Ohio,40,52,1,Sep 12,,,,,,,,Strategic Vision (R)-3

Ohio,47,50,2,Sep 8,,,,,,,,Survey USA-3

Ohio,43,52,2,Sep 7,,,,,,,,Gallup-4

Subject: RE: BS: Track the polls
From: McGrath of Harlow
Date: 20 Oct 04 - 09:34 AM

NB Ohio, where the figures given are Bush 47%, Kerry 45%, and Nader 3%...

Subject: RE: BS: Track the polls
From: GUEST
Date: 20 Oct 04 - 09:26 AM

artbrooks, the US military has already been used against the US citizenry, despite it being illegal. Remember Wounded Knee 1973?

And of course, it doesn't have to officially be the military. Remember Waco?

I don't have any confidence the current military, with the current commander in chief, would refuse orders from him. If Bush ordered the National Guard out to attack the US citizenry, regardless of the reason, the Guard would most certainly follow those orders.

Subject: RE: BS: Track the polls
From: Peace
Date: 19 Oct 04 - 07:46 PM

Artbrooks,

One HOPES the military would refuse such an order.

Subject: RE: BS: Track the polls
From: artbrooks
Date: 19 Oct 04 - 07:43 PM

GUEST 6:05 pm: the military would refuse such an order.

Subject: RE: BS: Track the polls
From: GUEST
Date: 19 Oct 04 - 06:05 PM

Well heric, I AM hoping for the best on that peaceful transfer of power thing. But if there is another repeat of Florida, our banana republic election could get purty ugly!

I guess I'm not amazed that the most militarized nation on the planet has peaceful transfers of power. I mean, if we got out of line, the military would be called upon to send in the same stuff they are currently using to pacify the citizenry of Iraq.

I don't want Kerry to be president bad enough to go up against a tank to get him declared the winner, that's for sure.

Subject: RE: BS: Track the polls
From: DougR
Date: 19 Oct 04 - 02:54 PM

Bobert LOVES polls!

DougR

Subject: RE: BS: Track the polls
From: GUEST,heric
Date: 19 Oct 04 - 02:01 PM

I generally detest and ignore polls. However, when a compilation of results tells me to expect a peaceful transition of power in the most heavily militarized nation in world history, I sit in amazed anticpation.

Subject: RE: BS: Track the polls
From: GUEST
Date: 19 Oct 04 - 01:53 PM

I honestly don't think any voters are following the polls anymore. The frenzy with which the media reports the various results just makes people tune them out completely. Polling for the elections seems to have lost all credibility with everyone I know.

Subject: RE: BS: Track the polls
From: Wolfgang
Date: 19 Oct 04 - 01:44 PM

That was a treat for me. I love numbers.

Wolfgang

Subject: BS: Track the polls
From: Ellenpoly
Date: 19 Oct 04 - 01:12 PM

The rate this changes is fascinating.

(Run your mouse across the states for individual breakdowns.)

http://www.electoral-vote.com/