BS: Is there a population decline crisis

Subject: BS: Is there a population decline crisis
From: Mary G
Date: 01 Jun 26 - 06:58 PM

I am following this. I can't help but think this is mostly a good thing, but depends on how fast population drops and how fast AI and robots replace people. There are huge military problems of course. I think most other problems will be fixed or ameliorated but there will be pockets of suffering as a result, mostly in caretaker situations.

I think a moderate decline can mostly be handled, but when it gets close to or below 1.0 could be serious. However, you will be able to walk into abandoned houses and claim them -- you already can in some places. Robots will do a lot of surgery, dentistry, accounting, gardening, home repairs.

What do people think? Of course the environment, excluding warfare, should improve. i also think when they list the reasons - mostly housing and daycare -- I think they leave off a lot of factors for this.

b

Subject: RE: BS: Is there a population decline crisis
From: Stilly River Sage
Date: 02 Jun 26 - 12:03 AM

Depending on HOW the population declines. Lower birth rate? Who will be here to tend to the aging population (though they're often doing a pretty good job of taking care of themselves for longer than before.)

Culling the population the way Trump and Miller and their ilk are trying to do to establish some kind of Aryan race — I think it's nuts.

Subject: RE: BS: Is there a population decline crisis
From: Bill D
Date: 02 Jun 26 - 03:55 PM

Our entire society is built on growth. Downsizing will/would be a delicate, careful thing. IF the USA does it, there's no guarantee the rest of the world would also.... and attempted immigration would present some real problems.
   Simple math tells us that world population growth simply *cannot* go on forever... 'forever' will end sooner than we can imagine.
   I remember in the 6th grade reading that world population was 2 1/2 billion, and the mantra was "the sea will feed us". Now it's about 8 billion. Even with a slowdown, various things will gradually get worse.. from simple 'living space' to water supplies to conflicts when people search for basic necessities.
Of course, I hope for sensible progress to achieve a livable balance, but 'sense' doesn't seem very common these days.
   I won't be around to say, "I told 'em so!", and the few times I've tried to explain it all, I was met with shrugs.

Subject: RE: BS: Is there a population decline crisis
From: r.padgett
Date: 04 Jun 26 - 01:27 AM

Is this not a world wide question? and of course India, Pakistan and others are different to UK, Australia, USA

and of course the extent of immigration where population face famine and war will be a factor too

Ray

Subject: RE: BS: Is there a population decline crisis
From: Bill D
Date: 04 Jun 26 - 10:52 AM

Yep, Ray... all that and more. Even if a way was found to control & limit pregnancies, many of those other cultures depend on large families to help earn a living.

Subject: RE: BS: Is there a population decline crisis
From: Donuel
Date: 06 Jun 26 - 11:08 AM

Japan and Italy were the first to notice the decline.

Subject: RE: BS: Is there a population decline crisis
From: Mary G
Date: 06 Jun 26 - 05:57 PM

I keep reading S. Korea is worst. I had read .9 but today I heard more like .72. That I can see would be catastrophic. I am not sure the higher numbers like 1.6 would be as bad, seeing there will be robots, immigration to many countries, many people are not working much anyway, as in jail, alcoholics etc. I can not predict what will happen. If we go into full scale war all bets are off. What these predictions do not take into account is how incredibly adaptable people are. We can turn empty schools into old age facilities. Upgrade everyone's housing situation. reclaim farm and forest land. live more simply. have fewer cars. eat whole foods we grow on porches etc. -- strawberries for example. I don't know. But if a high reproductive country wants land from a low repro country, they can probably just take it. Health and aged care will possibly be terrible, but maybe not with robotics.

Subject: RE: BS: Is there a population decline crisis
From: Donuel
Date: 07 Jun 26 - 11:08 AM

In this crazy age of uncertainty, people tend to freeze.

Subject: RE: BS: Is there a population decline crisis
From: robomatic
Date: 14 Jun 26 - 03:39 PM

Swiss Referendum goes against establishing a population cap

This is an interesting topic on which it is possible for more than one extreme position to agree. Are there any Swiss 'catters who have some background?

Subject: RE: BS: Is there a population decline crisis
From: Mr Red
Date: 16 Jun 26 - 08:40 AM

" Lower birth rate? Who will be here to tend to the ageing population " - a rising population and a rising global temperature. Correlation is not causation............. but try proving me wrong!

Well I had this argument with a guy who asserted we only need to top-up from 1.7 children per family, to make-up the 2.4 it needs to sustain equilibrium. From where? He had to concede - immigration!

My UK argument went along the lines:

In the 50s UK had 54/55 million peeps, most started work at 14/15 and retired at 65 and survived maybe 5 more years. Averages.

Today we leave school at 18 and a lot go off to Uni. We don't all retire at 65, and go on to live maybe 15 more years.

That puts the workforce requirement at +20% (I did the maths). Peeps needed to staff shops, run sewages works (essential!) or teach the next generation & make the electricity/water we take for granted.

UK, despite all the migrant rhetoric, is now at 66 million. A rise of 20% - and politicians keep schtum about it.

I rest my case.

Subject: RE: BS: Is there a population decline crisis
From: Mary G
Date: 16 Jun 26 - 03:16 PM

I think about this often. What do we do with those who need care? And it will include a lot more children with serious conditions, some of whom are quite violent and will need special housing. As for aged care, there will be robots, especially for toileting, immigrants on special visas, and the elders themselves working longer, maybe shorter hours. I suspect pensions will be suspended and we will be put into barracks, probably reusing old abandoned schools, strip malls etc. Food will be raised by robots on site. Maintenance by robots. We will probably live way longer due to better, more natural, medicines. So the population might be violent teenagers, very elderly people, very few babies and young adults. We probably not be able to defend ourselves. Water will be cleaner. Wonderful new inventions.

Subject: RE: BS: Is there a population decline crisis
From: Bill D
Date: 16 Jun 26 - 03:56 PM

There is such a thing as a 'stable population', as in various islands.
Pitcairn Island, settled by the mutineers from "The Bounty" lasted in isolation for quite a while, but in a group of a few dozen it's possible, while in the millions or billions, control thru legislation is close to impossible. China briefly tried to limit families to two children, but many peasants just ignored it.
The only possible solutions are either too horrible to contemplate or close to impossible to impose, such as random anti-fertility drugs given to young girls at puberty.
   I'm just glad I won't be around to see the chaos that happens as land use and food and water lead to desperation as the have-nots invade the haves.

Subject: RE: BS: Is there a population decline crisis
From: Mary G
Date: 16 Jun 26 - 04:18 PM

Bill D ..the worry seems to be we will have too few people, not too many. I have no doubt that some effects will be great...a huge migration out of poverty class. Some will be bad..takeovers from other countries, poor elder care etc. They say replacement is 2.1, and Korea is about .7. Quite a few countries are at about .9. Latin America is dropping rapidly. African countries still have high numbers but trends are down. What I see is huge numbers of people who are not tapped into labor market. If we could keep them from crime and drugs things would shift for the better for them and for society. It is all very complex and I am trying to educate myself on it. Up to a point I am optimistic, maybe around 1.6, but very very many countries are way lower.

Subject: RE: BS: Is there a population decline crisis
From: Donuel
Date: 16 Jun 26 - 06:45 PM

Many scientists are blaming the iPhone.

Subject: RE: BS: Is there a population decline crisis
From: Mary G
Date: 16 Jun 26 - 08:21 PM

I have heard the IPhone theory. Miserable relations between men and women these days. Failure to marry, date, etc. I would have great fear of producing a very handicapped, as in violent, child. There are so many of them and so few facilities for them. There is of course the cost of housing etc...but you could house one spouse and one child in not a huge space. Cost of daycare -- wonderful news for those who want to have a home-based business, bad news for others. Student loan debt. Wedding debt, which is often huge. Fear of nuclear war and kids being killed or parents being drafted. Jobs taken over by AI. Aging parents to care for. The list goes on.

Subject: RE: BS: Is there a population decline crisis
From: MaJoC the Filk
Date: 17 Jun 26 - 09:21 AM

I've seen the iPhone theory, in a report on ElReg (If your sex life is dead, you can blame Steve Jobs):

[...] The study’s data doesn’t include anything about the reasons the iPhone’s introduction caused a birth rate decline, but Myers and Hooper point to other research - and a bit of common sense - to suggest three possibilities. First there’s the fact that smartphones are a substitute for in-person interactions, meaning people aren’t in physical proximity, and thus less likely to be having sex. Combine that with one of the other factors they identified - instant, easy access to online porn - and people remaining at home instead of going out to socialize are more likely to just take care of business on their own. Third, the iPhone gave people easy access to information about contraception and abortion access, so even those bucking the don’t-leave-the-house trend are less likely to have a kid they don’t want. [...]

And from the Comments:

Years ago I was in a meeting where various doomsday scenarios were discussed (Nukes, Continental-scale EMP strikes, chem/bio)...

And someone asked the briefer, "So, what do YOU perceive as the greatest threat to man?"

And the man said, "To man specifically? Independently wealthy women with battery-operated toys."

I damn near spit my coffee out!

But maybe he knew something we didn't.

PS: Does anybody else remember the Mother of the Soviet Union medals? Allegedly this award was instituted to combat a USSR population implosion, though the reason for that was never made clear.

Subject: RE: BS: Is there a population decline crisis
From: Bill D
Date: 17 Jun 26 - 05:14 PM

Mary G. We are far from having too few people. We already have too many.
I am aware of the problems of reducing the population when most business models are based on growth. Reduction needs to be done carefully and world-wide to avoid awkward imbalances in 1st, 2nd & 3rd world countries. That is what I referred to in my post above--and it's already happening: no one is emigrating TO Ethiopia or Sudan!
   We humans seldom take the long view, responding to problems mostly in emergencies. "You never miss the water till the well runs dry."
   The dust bowl of the 1930s was a prime example...(coupled with the great depression). Contour plowing and sensible crop rotation eventually helped, but there were immense cultural and financial issues for a number of years.
   Right now, the well has NOT run dry for those advocating growth.