BS: US Demographic Info-Election

Subject: BS: US Demographic Info-Election
From: Janie
Date: 11 Jan 08 - 09:00 PM

There are a number of threads running on the election, and they have interesting and useful information demographic information embedded in them that is difficult to cull.    I don't have the capability to moderate a thread, but would like for this one to be limited to demographic information from polls that can perhaps paint a picture of how American voters perceive the the condition of the country on a number of fronts by various demographic characteristics, and might provide some insight into why people choose the candidates that they do.

I would strongly like for this thread to be a reporting of data from election year polls and surveys that appear to be reputable- and not a discussion of, or commentary on the two parties, the candidates, or of posters' opinions.

I hope y'all police yourselves, but if you don't-well then you don't.

Next post will be a link to the original article and an extraction of the data from the poll.

Subject: RE: BS: US Demographic Info-Election
From: Janie
Date: 11 Jan 08 - 09:52 PM

http://blog.washingtonpost.com/the-trail/2008/01/11/populist_but_not_popular_message_on_economy.html

You guys are savy enough for me not to need to spell out the caveats regarding polls. The source is The National Election Pool, a polling effort put together by a consortium of major media outlets. Google it for more info. and critisms.

Subject: RE: BS: US Demographic Info-Election
From: Peace
Date: 11 Jan 08 - 11:18 PM

"Census: More school children in western Mass. live in poverty

By Associated Press

Friday, January 11, 2008 - Added 13h ago

SPRINGFIELD - New U.S. Census information shows that the percentage of school children living in poverty has grown in the last five years in more than a dozen western Massachusetts school districts.

For example, the Census Bureau says 33.2 percent of kids ages 5 to 17 in the Springfield school system lived below the federal poverty level in 2005. That's up from 27.2 percent in 2000.

But school officials say those numbers may actually underestimate the number of students whose families struggle to make ends meet.

Springfield School Superintendent Joseph Burke says about 77 percent of his students receive free or reduced cost lunches, a program for students whose families live on up to 185 percent of the federal poverty level."

From what I have been reading--prompted by your thread--two issues seen to be paramount in people's minds: Iraq and Poverty. I am certainly not astute enough to begin to understand how that will translate to votes for candidates.

Subject: RE: BS: US Demographic Info-Election
From: Q (Frank Staplin)
Date: 12 Jan 08 - 12:26 AM

Janie, these are just general figures on Hispanics from the internet, but they are important. Not what you are after? I'm not sure what kind of demographics you want- race, income, education- Best compiled state by state.

Hispanics in the United States- over 44 million, making it the largest Hispanic concentration after Mexico.
The article in Wackipedia estimates 28 million speak Spanish at home.

California, Arizona, New Mexico, Texas have more than 30% Hispanics.
New York has a very large Hispanic community, estimates put the numbers of Dominicans alone at over 590,000 (Estimate from State University of NY analysis). Total NY abt. 3 million.
Much bad feeling in Arizona as a result of the English official language law recently passed.

New Mexico has constitutional protection for Spanish-speakers, and has always published or made available the laws in Spanish. All California laws are available in Spanish. Some southern counties in Texas are largely Hispanic.

Candidates will have to woo these voters.

Subject: RE: BS: US Demographic Info-Election
From: Riginslinger
Date: 12 Jan 08 - 09:39 AM

Q - A sideline event that continues to occurr as a result of the Spanish speaking populations that you mentioned, is what is said in the Spanish media.
                      The nation wide rally that took place a year ago May, you might remember, took the English speaking world by surprise, because most all of the promotion took place through Spanish language media.
                      A political candidate can happily say one thing to a Spanish speaking audience, and something completely different to an English speaking audience, and often goes undetected.
                      I've noticed that all the candidates for president want to make "Learn to speak, read and write English" a component of any "road to citizenship," they might offer.

Subject: RE: BS: US Demographic Info-Election
From: Janie
Date: 12 Jan 08 - 09:56 AM

Q - I'm interested in any demographics that anyone thinks may be pertinent. I agree that state-by-state demographics might be particularly helpful. If nothing else, they are easier to analyze.


The article I linked to above reported on New Hampshire. Because the National Election Pool is the source, I am assuming these data are based on exit polls.   

A major caveat. The pollsters used different polling questionaires for Democrats and Republican voters. The Dem. instrument contained 3 issues from which to choose. The GOP instrument contained 4. (And I missed this information in my first reading of the data.) This significantly limits the meaningfulness of cross party comparisons. It is also important to remember that NH has open primaries and a large number of unaffiliated voters.

I am going to assume the questionaires were otherwise identical, but do not know that to be the case.

So....

Choosing from 3 issues, 38% of the Dem. voters polled identified the economy as the top issue facing the country. Choosing from 4 issues, 31% of GOP voters identified the economy as the top issue.

Among the 38% of those who voted in the Dem. primary who chose the economy as most important, 14% ranked the state of the economy as good to excellent, 55% ranked it as not so good, 31% ranked it as poor.

Among the 31% of those who voted in the GOP primary who chose the economy as most important, 49% percent ranked the state of the economy as good to excellent, 40% ranked it as not so good, and 10% ranked it as poor.

Among the 38% of those who voted in the Dem. primary who chose the economy as most important, 14% rated their family financial situation as getting ahead, 57% rated it as holding steady, and 28% rated it as falling behind.

Among the 31% of those who voted in the GOP primary who chose the economy as most important, 22% rated their family financial situation as getting ahead, 60% rated it as holding steady, and 17% rated it as falling behind.

Subject: RE: BS: US Demographic Info-Election
From: Amos
Date: 12 Jan 08 - 10:25 AM

Tables in Excel or comma-separated values for all regions and classes of voters as they registered (2004 national elections) can be found in the Census Bureau web site ay http://www.census.gov/population/www/socdemo/voting/cps2004.html.

More data than can be easily transferred to a thread, but of interest.


A

Subject: RE: BS: US Demographic Info-Election
From: Q (Frank Staplin)
Date: 12 Jan 08 - 03:05 PM

Riginslinger-
The Democratic National Party website has a section in Spanish. Among the articles; "Votantes Rechazaron Tácticas de Republicanos Sobre Inmigración" and "A 48 Horas del Debate, Los Republicanos Han Abandonado el Tono Moderato."
Be interesting to see these and other articles in translation. I haven't looked at the Republican Party website yet.

Spanish

Subject: RE: BS: US Demographic Info-Election
From: Riginslinger
Date: 12 Jan 08 - 03:28 PM

I would think the DNC would translate the material as realistically as possible. Talk show hosts and politicos don't have that same integrity, at least not normally.

Subject: RE: BS: US Demographic Info-Election
From: Q (Frank Staplin)
Date: 12 Jan 08 - 03:32 PM

This is Democratic Party material- what are they telling Hispanic voters?

Subject: RE: BS: US Demographic Info-Election
From: Riginslinger
Date: 12 Jan 08 - 04:14 PM

I'll have to take a crash course in Spanish to tell you.