BS: Obama's Poll Numbers Plummet

Subject: BS: Obama's Poll Numbers Plummet
From: GUEST,Guest
Date: 17 Mar 08 - 10:27 PM

This is the "PreacherGate" thing I've been talking about all day, from the Kansas City Star tonight:

Is Jeremiah Wright affecting Obama's poll numbers?

Sen. Barack Obama hit 50 percent to Hillary Clinton's 44 percent last week in Gallup's daily tracking poll. It was the largest advantage either contestant has had in the race since late February, according to Gallup.

Then Pastor-Gate went viral on Friday. And Obama's numbers have been steadily declining (while his negatives have ticked up). And today Gallup says Clinton is leading 47 percent to Obama's 45 percent. While not statistically significant, Clinton's two percentage point advantage in today's report is a notable shift from last week, the pollster says.

A separate pollster, Rasmussen, also finds the controversy is hurting Obama. And offers a jaw-dropping statistic. Only 8 percent of Americans have a favorable opinion of Obama pastor Jeremiah Wright.

The pollster also found that most voters, 56 percent, said Wright's comments (which included damning America) made them less likely to vote for Obama. The number includes 44 percent of Democrats.

Two-thirds of voters said they had heard about Wright and the controversy. (That prompted Bill O'Reilly to go off on his radio show this afternoon about how could a third of Americans be unaware of this issue. The Obama campaign is probably grateful that it's a third.)

Here's some solace for the Obama campaign and ammunition for the Clinton campaign via a USA Today poll since the survey was done this weekend. Both lead John McCain but Clinton is above 50 percent at 51 percent to McCain's 46 percent. McCain is closer to Obama with Obama at 49 percent and McCain at 47 percent. The two Democrats have overtaken McCain since the last survey in February by USA Today. (Other polls show McCain leading or tied).

Subject: RE: BS: Obama's Poll Numbers Plummet
From: GUEST,Guest
Date: 17 Mar 08 - 10:29 PM

And from the LA Times:

Poll shows Rev. Jeremiah Wright hurting Barack Obama

Who knows how long the Rev. Jeremiah Wright brouhaha will play out, but revelations of Barack Obama's pastor's objectionable sermons have apparently eroded public perceptions of Obama, according to a fresh analysis by the Rasmussen Report tracking poll.

With the Wright episode playing out over the past few days, the poll found Obama's favorable rating nationally had dropped five points to 47% since Thursday, and his unfavorable rating had risen from 44% to 50%. Among white voters, the unfavorable numbers jumped to 54%. The poll also found John McCain leading both Obama and Hillary Clinton in head-to-head national matchups, whereas a week ago they they were essentially tied.

Subject: RE: BS: Obama's Poll Numbers Plummet
From: GUEST,Guest
Date: 17 Mar 08 - 10:33 PM

Can Obama's speech on race & Wright tomorrow turn things around?

Stay tuned.

Subject: RE: BS: Obama's Poll Numbers Plummet
From: number 6
Date: 17 Mar 08 - 10:48 PM

It will be interesting GG.

biLL

Subject: RE: BS: Obama's Poll Numbers Plummet
From: GUEST,Guest
Date: 17 Mar 08 - 10:52 PM

Yeah, it didn't work out too well for Spitzer last week, did it?

Scandal deja vu all over again.

Subject: RE: BS: Obama's Poll Numbers Plummet
From: GUEST,Guest
Date: 17 Mar 08 - 10:56 PM

I guess the below is as reasonable a bar for Obama's speech tomorrow as anything else I've read so far. From an editorial at the Kansas City Star:

What Obama should tell white Americans in speech on race, Jeremiah Wright

By Yael T. Abouhalkah, Kansas City Star Editorial Board

Barack Obama's speech on race Tuesday should be aimed straight at white Americans, especially Democrats.

Obama's goal: Persuade them the first black U.S. president could be a healing, not a divisive, force in Washington.

On Monday, Obama said he wanted to give the speech partly to defend longtime pastor Jeremiah Wright, whose inflammatory remarks attacking America have spread around the nation the last few days.

"I think the caricature that is being painted of him is not accurate, and so part of what I will do tomorrow is to talk about how these issues are perceived from within the black church community for example which I think skews this very differently," Obama said, according to CNN.

That's a tall goal.

As Obama and his supporters -- black, white and otherwise -- know fully, many people are questioning how much the Democratic presidential candidate knew about Wright's stances.

Obama's early replies -- he wasn't there for the vituperative remarks and he didn't agree with them -- falls short of what many people would expect from him.

After all, Obama has been a member of Wright's church for 20 years. His explanation fails the test of credulity: How could you not know about the vile comments spread by Wright?

Wright's defenders miss part of the point, too.

I'm among those who would of course defend the right to condemn America, especially the offensive treatment of black people for decades in this nation.

Then again, if Wright were speaking the truth about how black people feel right now -- which is part of the defense used by Wright's supporters -- then why is Obama distancing himself from the remarks?

Obama has said Tuesday's speech is something he's wanted to deliver on race and politics.

He could score a huge victory if his speech clearly explains to white Americans how race would factor into his service as president.

Yael T. Abouhalkah is a member of The Kansas City Star's Editorial Board.

Subject: RE: BS: Obama's Poll Numbers Plummet
From: Sorcha
Date: 17 Mar 08 - 11:01 PM

I'm sooo tired of this guest shit. Why don't you find a POLITICAL forum to post your crap on?

Subject: RE: BS: Obama's Poll Numbers Plummet
From: GUEST,Guest
Date: 17 Mar 08 - 11:06 PM

You do have the option of not opening & reading the thread.

So I guess you only have yourself to blame for being soooooo tired of my shit, eh?

Subject: RE: BS: Obama's Poll Numbers Plummet
From: number 6
Date: 17 Mar 08 - 11:14 PM

I dunno ... I think this thread of GG's is as good as any of the many political threads here in the Cat.

You have probably the most important elections in U.S. history going on ... with 3 candiates of choice running and probably the most hopeful of the 3 has been tarnished by some rhetoric that is rather concerning from his spiritual mentor.

yes, I think this thread is of substance.

biLL

Subject: RE: BS: Obama's Poll Numbers Plummet
From: Amos
Date: 17 Mar 08 - 11:16 PM

I might have known who started the thread even without opening it.

I look forward to a hell of a speech! For more than this crap. The difference in quality is so palpable you could shovel it.


A

Subject: RE: BS: Obama's Poll Numbers Plummet
From: Amos
Date: 17 Mar 08 - 11:20 PM

..."Mr. Obama, in a speech Tuesday in Philadelphia, will repeat his earlier denunciations of the ministerÕs words, aides said. But they said he would also use the opportunity to open a broader discussion of race, which his campaign has said throughout the contest that it wants to transcend. He will bluntly address racial divisions, one aide said, talking about the way they play out in church, in the campaign, and beyond.

Mr. Obama continued to write the speech on Monday evening, which he believes could be one of the most important of his presidential candidacy, aides said. His wife, Michelle, had not been scheduled to travel with him this week, but hastily made plans to be in Philadelphia.

Mr. Obama said Monday that in his speech, to be given at the National Constitution Center, he would Òtalk a little bit about how some of these issues are perceived from within the black church community, for example, which I think views this very differently.Ó

After removing Mr. Wright from a religious advisory committee on his campaign on Friday, Mr. Obama concluded over the weekend that he had not sufficiently explained his association with the pastor. He told several aides he was worried that if voters did not hear directly from him Ñ in the setting of a major speech Ñ doubts and questions about him might grow.

Some associates advised him against giving the speech. ÒRace is now officially on the table. ItÕs not going away after this,Ó a senior aide, speaking on condition of anonymity, recalled one adviser saying.

The episode has left Mr. Obama tending to a firestorm fed by matters no less combustible than faith, patriotism and race. It could help Senator Hillary Rodham ClintonÕs campaign advance its argument that Mr. Obama is Òunvetted,Ó and that he is less electable than Mrs. Clinton come fall. In interviews, Republican strategists mapped out how Mr. ObamaÕs association with Mr. Wright could be used against him in a general election.

By addressing head-on such sensitive topics, his speech, aides and other Democrats said, could be a pivotal moment for Mr. Obama, who, for all of his electoral victories and copious news coverage, is still known only in the broadest terms by many Americans.

ÒThis isnÕt red and blue America,Ó said Donna Brazile, a Democratic consultant, referring to the address that catapulted Mr. Obama to prominence at the 2004 Democratic National Convention. ÒThis is black and white America.Ó

ÒAnd when you really have a serious conversation about race, people clear the room,Ó said Ms. Brazile, who as the manager of Al GoreÕs bid for the White House in 2000 was the first black woman to run a major presidential campaign.

Mr. Obama is particularly vulnerable because voters are still getting to know him, said Democratic and Republican strategists Ñ and a few voters as well. The Wright affair Òmakes me question other things. What else do we not know?Ó asked Karen Norton, 58, a computer saleswoman in North Carolina and a Republican who said that, until now, she had been stirred by Mr. ObamaÕs message of national reconciliation.

Mr. WrightÕs statements, said strategists, threaten his greatest strength, his reputation as a unifying, uplifting figure, capable of moving the country past old labels and divisions.

ÒThe problem is the complete contradiction between the message of the Obama campaign and the message of the minister whoÕs been his close friend and confidant for 20 years,Ó said Whit Ayres, a Republican consultant unaffiliated with any campaign.

Mr. Obama has also pitched himself as a candidate who can attract religious voters back to the Democratic Party, one who speaks the language of the Bible fluently and testifies about what he says is the impact of Christianity on his own life.

ÒWhat better way to try to undercut the way he integrates faith and political vision than to say we should all be secretly afraid of his church?Ó said Jim Wallis, a left-leaning evangelical who has had longstanding relationships with both Mr. Obama and Mrs. Clinton, and who says that Mr. Wright has been unfairly caricatured in recent portrayals.
..." (NYT)

Subject: RE: BS: Obama's Poll Numbers Plummet
From: number 6
Date: 17 Mar 08 - 11:26 PM

That's what this thread is all about Amos.

As I said, I look forward to his speech. It will be (in all probability) his most important to date. This is where he can prove himself of all the expectations put forward to him.

biLL

Subject: RE: BS: Obama's Poll Numbers Plummet
From: Amos
Date: 17 Mar 08 - 11:39 PM

Salon on Obama's "crazy uncles" and life in Chicago makes an interesting read and says it like it probably is.


A

Subject: RE: BS: Obama's Poll Numbers Plummet
From: John on the Sunset Coast
Date: 17 Mar 08 - 11:41 PM

How deliciously ironic. First there is a backlash by some against Obama because of his Muslim connection. Now there is backlash because of Obama's Christian connection. Next will we find he has a Jewish or Wicca connection as a third strike?
Ah, the foolishness of it all.

Subject: RE: BS: Obama's Poll Numbers Plummet
From: Jim Lad
Date: 17 Mar 08 - 11:42 PM

So Mr. Obama gets to dodge the questions today and is rewarded with some free airtime tomorrow.
Special rules for special folks, I suppose.

Subject: RE: BS: Obama's Poll Numbers Plummet
From: Charley Noble
Date: 18 Mar 08 - 08:51 AM

Amos-

Interesting article in Salon. I wonder if Gigi has taken the time to review it. However, it's got too many esoteric words and concepts for our friend Jim Ladd who prefers to sneer and smear.

It will be a challenge for Obama to explain his long term relationship with his pastor, his disagreement with some of his pastor's rhetoric but the importance of the issues raised. However, voters will be listening to his every word and Obama has had since early January to work up a response to this expected attack.

We'll see how it goes, and hope for the best.

Cheerily,
Charley Noble

Subject: RE: BS: Obama's Poll Numbers Plummet
From: Bobert
Date: 18 Mar 08 - 09:51 AM

If nothing else, Obama has shown that he can takle a punch... The McClintons have been flailing away him madly for months now and he gets back up fresher after each roundhouse blow...

That which doesn't kill you makes you stronger...

Obama has shown that to be one of his strongest attributes... For those who has propagated the myth that he ain't tough enough to be president I'd like to see them have go go 15 rounds with the tag-team McClinton attack machine...

B~

Subject: RE: BS: Obama's Poll Numbers Plummet
From: wysiwyg
Date: 18 Mar 08 - 10:00 AM

The tabloid in the checkout aisle yesterday had him embroiled in accusatios of being gay. Ho hum....

~S~

Subject: RE: BS: Obama's Poll Numbers Plummet
From: SINSULL
Date: 18 Mar 08 - 02:31 PM

Do you deny that he is a happy man, Susan?

Giant SIGGGGHHHHHH!!!!!!!!

Subject: RE: BS: Obama's Poll Numbers Plummet
From: Amos
Date: 18 Mar 08 - 02:38 PM

to narrow that gap between the promise of our ideals and the reality of their time.

This was one of the tasks we set forth at the beginning of this campaign - to continue the long march of those who came before us, a march for a more just, more equal, more free, more caring and more prosperous America. I chose to run for the presidency at this moment in history because I believe deeply that we cannot solve the challenges of our time unless we solve them together - unless we perfect our union by understanding that we may have different stories, but we hold common hopes; that we may not look the same and we may not have come from the same place, but we all want to move in the same direction - towards a better future for of children and our grandchildren.


This belief comes from my unyielding faith in the decency and generosity of the American people. But it also comes from my own American story. ..."