BS: Ireland-What happened?

Subject: BS: Ireland-What happened?
From: Duke
Date: 27 Nov 10 - 09:52 AM

I know from the news that Ireland is in trouble and I was wondering if someone could explain to me just what happened.

thanks.

Subject: RE: BS: Ireland-What happened?
From: GUEST,Peter Laban
Date: 27 Nov 10 - 10:06 AM

The bubble burst.

Subject: RE: BS: Ireland-What happened?
From: mikesamwild
Date: 27 Nov 10 - 10:08 AM

See other posts!

Subject: RE: BS: Ireland-What happened?
From: akenaton
Date: 27 Nov 10 - 10:21 AM

Global capitalism was shown very clearly for what it is.

But nobody noticed!

Subject: RE: BS: Ireland-What happened?
From: Bonnie Shaljean
Date: 27 Nov 10 - 10:25 AM

I bloody did. Knew this was going to happen while the Tiger was still roaring. Honestly, did people learn nothing from 1929?

Subject: RE: BS: Ireland-What happened?
From: Bonnie Shaljean
Date: 27 Nov 10 - 10:26 AM

BTW, guess who just won the Donegal by-election. Sinn Féin.

Subject: RE: BS: Ireland-What happened?
From: akenaton
Date: 27 Nov 10 - 10:35 AM

Adams for Taoiseach?

Now that WOULD be something....a nation once again!

Subject: RE: BS: Ireland-What happened?
From: Keith A of Hertford
Date: 27 Nov 10 - 11:50 AM

It was explained very clearly how the current crisis came about, by a contributor to the other thread.

Britain ponced off the world for centuries, and when we pulled out - reluctantly, not only had we manipulated economies and destroyed cultures "For God, Queen and Empire", we left many of our former colonies in shit-order - Ireland being a perfect example.
Pay-back time, I'm afraid.
Jim Carroll

The good years were nothing to do with us, obviously.
But, as soon as something goes wrong, we caused it by the way we left Ireland ninety odd years ago.

Subject: RE: BS: Ireland-What happened?
From: GUEST,Steamin' Willie
Date: 27 Nov 10 - 12:14 PM

Hate to pee on bonfires here..

Despite the usual poetic historical dew eyed nonsense when people discuss Ireland, or indeed using UK's colonial past to describe situations of today anywhere.............

The financial position was caused by us all, including all the armchair socialists who buy beer and incontinence pads from multinational companies. Sorry lads, but its your fault every bit as much as mine.

And it was caused by financial people, advertising executives and those who raise expectations of your average Western world citizen by telling us we can have whatever we want whenever we want it.

It has nowt to do with Cromwell, potato blight, black & tans, Jack Charlton or U2. Or indeed any political acts, as governments are not even in the same league as those who run the world. One country? A bit small when you can run the world. Welcome to HSBC et al, managing what the Raj could only play at...

Subject: RE: BS: Ireland-What happened?
From: Jack Campin
Date: 27 Nov 10 - 12:29 PM

Not helped by the regime in power trying to turn the place into the Bahamas of the North Atlantic by setting the lowest rate of corporate tax in Europe and then expecting the rest of Europe to fund the corporations' free ride by loans and currency policies that amounted to a Ponzi scheme.

Subject: RE: BS: Ireland-What happened?
From: The Sandman
Date: 27 Nov 10 - 12:29 PM

Gerry Adams[IMO], is the only politician in IRELAND with any credibilty, or statesmanlike qualities.
keith a,you didnt cause it , but the English establishment have certainly contributed with others[ the irish establishment and european banks, to the present situation.

Subject: RE: BS: Ireland-What happened?
From: The Sandman
Date: 27 Nov 10 - 12:31 PM

jack campin stick to modes[something you know about]

Subject: RE: BS: Ireland-What happened?
From: GUEST,Peter Laban
Date: 27 Nov 10 - 12:34 PM

Feck that. You take the blame if you like. I have refuse to be part of the 'we're all guilty'.

The government has been careless to a fault, well beyond the point it was clear the house of card was starting to tumble down. The banks have been careless and out for profit at all cost. Where was the financial regulator in all this? Ah yes, the government was too busy lowering taxes and giving tax incentives to developers to worry about financial regulation.

let's not now pretend it all happened to the country without warning, a bolt from the blue. There were plenty of warnings along the way
the bubble wasn't sustainable. And what was the government's reaction, well, this was!

Subject: RE: BS: Ireland-What happened?
From: The Sandman
Date: 27 Nov 10 - 12:48 PM

thanks PETER, to quote Martin Carthy "who is that berk".

Subject: RE: BS: Ireland-What happened?
From: The Sandman
Date: 27 Nov 10 - 12:50 PM

I dont mean you peter, but Bertie.

Subject: RE: BS: Ireland-What happened?
From: The Sandman
Date: 27 Nov 10 - 12:55 PM

Here he is again,http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jUrk5qPqt94&feature=related

Subject: RE: BS: Ireland-What happened?
From: The Sandman
Date: 27 Nov 10 - 12:58 PM

and againhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zFBfkusf8R0&feature=related

Subject: RE: BS: Ireland-What happened?
From: Art Thieme
Date: 27 Nov 10 - 06:57 PM

An explosion or a hurricane I can understand and see the aftermath of. But nothing any of you have said in the thread has made it any easier to grasp. It is possibly my fault.

Art

Subject: RE: BS: Ireland-What happened?
From: GUEST,Alan Whittle
Date: 27 Nov 10 - 10:05 PM

Its all our fault.
We found a note admitting guilt in the basement.

"I done it. My fault.

signed
Oliver Cromwell"

Subject: RE: BS: Ireland-What happened?
From: GUEST,JTT
Date: 28 Nov 10 - 03:10 AM

Here it is, simply explained:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vLniOkpl1QY

Subject: RE: BS: Ireland-What happened?
From: skarpi
Date: 28 Nov 10 - 04:12 PM

well same as in Iceland , but Ireland is not going let banks fall
people have to hold the up for many years to come , Iceland
did let them fall .

kv Skarpi .

Subject: RE: BS: Ireland-What happened?
From: Lizzie Cornish 1
Date: 28 Nov 10 - 04:20 PM

Was it winning The Eurovision Song Contest wot did it?

Was it Riverdance?

Was it Dana?

Is it.............DANIEL O'DONNELL???????

Subject: RE: BS: Ireland-What happened?
From: J-boy
Date: 28 Nov 10 - 06:27 PM

Greed happened.

Subject: RE: BS: Ireland-What happened?
From: GUEST,KP
Date: 29 Nov 10 - 11:48 AM

Duke, Art
I teach basic business finance (among other things) at a local University here in Scotland and some students asked me the same question. I'm more into micro (company level) economics than macro (country level but let's see if I can summarise what seems to have happened.

Two things happen in most market economies
1. Economies are cyclical
2. Governments spend more than they receive in taxes

Explain point 1: The economy has low periods when business doesn't look so good. Companies don't invest because it doesn't look like their investment will be recouped. How do they do this calculation? They use a technique called discounted cash flow or net present value analysis. The arithmetic of these calculations depends on interest rates. If they are high the investment is likely to look less profitable, but if they are low the investment is likely to look more profitable.

So what can the government/central bank do when business is bad? It can reduce interest rates, which has the effect of 'turning on' investment projects. And one company's investment project (say a new office) is another company's day to day business (think of architects, builders, electrical/IT installers etc). So reducing interest rates normally has the effect of increasing economic output.

As output grows more individuals and companies start to look at the economic prospects and think 'I'd like to spend/invest'. Because rates are cheap, it looks feasible for them to do this by borrowing money - on credit schemes for individuals, or bank loans for companies. So as the economy expands there is an increased demand for this cheap money. This demand should be self-limiting - if the demand for money goes up the cost of borrowing the money (interest rates) should go up as well. So you'd expect interest rates to be cyclic - low when the economy is doing badly and high when it is doing well.

What happened in Ireland was that their economy had got to the natural peak of the cycle in 1999 and interest rates on the old Irish Punt were increasing to about 6-7%. But it joined the Euro at a time when Euro interest rates were only 3-4%. Result: lots of cheap capital.

And that's not necessarily a good thing. In a thriving economy you'll find an eventual shortage of good investment projects. You've built the factories, got the machinery, labour is fully employed, its hard to get extra materials/workers, so what do you spend the money on? More consumer goods? That, and the thing that everyone thinks can only ever increase in price - property.

So the banks had access to cheap money which they lent out to entrepreneurs (probably good), individuals building houses (possibly good unless they were speculating) property speculators (generally bad). And these were the same banks where members of the general public kept most of their savings. Over the 'boom years' the quality of the developments that the banks lent into got lower and lower (this wasn't just in Ireland - the same thing happened in the US, Iceland, etc). In addition, when you lend money on property you tend to make long term loans (15 years+), but as the banks lent more and more (and of course borrowers demanded more and more), they financed that lending by borrowing money from other banks - often quite short-term loans. In the UK Northern Rock did a lot of this but so did the Irish banks.

In 2008 it all unwound - it became clear that that some of the loans (first in America and then elsewhere) were of low quality and never going to be repaid. That caused all the banks to panic, to stop lending to each other, and to retain as much cash as they could for themselves. That meant that the banks who borrowed short to lend long suffered a 'liquidity crisis' (banker speak for running out of cash). Some countries, including Ireland, had banks that had been (by all accounts) particularly 'adventurous' in their lending. So the first problem for Ireland has been a banking crisis. Can the Government (i.e. the taxpayer) support the banks to stop them going out of business? Bearing in mind that if they don't, all those citizens who've put their life savings into the those banks will lose their money.

2. That brings in the second problem. What can the government do in a banking crisis? Traditionally, the response to a 'liquidity crisis' is to cut interest rates so that its easier for the banks to get money and to lend it each other. The trouble was interest rates were already too low - that had caused the crisis. Lowering them had no effect on interbank transactions - even in the UK, when the Bank of England cut the base rate to 0.5%, banks still wouldn't/couldn't loan to each other.

So what else could the Government(s) do? Spend money themselves to support the banks. In the UK the Government made it clear that it could put as much as £850 billion into the banks to do this - in fact the amount turned out to be about £100 billion and it looks they'll get their money back. In Ireland the money needed has been much bigger in relation to the size of the Irish economy. The Government probably couldn't get this money from taxpayers so would they have to borrow it?

Most governments borrow money by issuing a special type of debt government bonds ('gilts' in the UK). There is a continuous process of auctioning these bonds where governments effectively are saying 'who'd like to lend us money for x years at y% interest rates?' The investors may be banks, individuals, or other countries (the Chinese have a lot of American debt for example). There is also a thriving secondary market in this debt. As this secondary market trades it tells you what the interest rate needs to be for any new debt. If £100 worth of 5% interest debt (yielding £5 per year) is sold for £90 its implied interest rate is now 5/90 or 5.55%. The average yield on UK government debt is about 3.8%. By contrast, the yield on Irish bonds has reached 9% (that means £100 of 5% debt is only valued at £55).

The yield got so high because investors don't believe that the Irish government can repay their debts in full. They already owed a lot of money before the crisis, and this has made it really bad. What governments should do is to reduce their borrowing during the 'boom years' so they've got room for manoeuvre during the bad years. Successive governments in Ireland didn't really do this (neither did the Greeks, Portuguese etc, but also neither did the UK - see The Financial Deficit Explained).

So lending money to Ireland looks risky, and investors are basically asking for 9% to loan Euros to them (rather than 3% to loan to Germany). How do you convince investors that you could repay the loans? By showing how you are cutting costs and increasing revenues.

To finish, the Irish government is facing a number of very unpleasant choices. It could:

1. Let the banks go bust and its citizens lose their money.
2. Default (not repay) on its international 'sovereign debts' - but then 'never' be able to borrow from anyone ever again. It would then have to balance its budget and make massive cuts as it would be in danger of literally running out of money
3. Come out of the Euro and devalue its currency (it would probably have to do this if it did number 2), to reduce the value of its debt. That's what the Weimar Republic in Germany did in the 1920's and we know how that ended
4. Cut its spending hugely, and raise taxes, and hope that potential investors will be convinced - this is what they have been trying to do, and what Governments everywhere did in the 1930's. The danger is that you could get into a lasting depression just like then.
5. Accept a rescue package, at lower interest rates than otherwise, which together with some cuts, will stabilise both the banks and the country's economy. The question is what terms the EU will impose on the rescue package - in particular will it want Ireland to increase its low corporation tax which has been instrumental in attracting inward (esp US) investment into Ireland?

Its not all gloom, as there are some examples of countries getting into this kind of mess and then getting out again;
Can Ireland Bounce Back - How 5 other Nations Fared

Anyway I hope that helps and I'd be interested to receive comments from readers in general - is this clear, and would my students understand it?

Cheers from a very snowy Scotland!

Subject: RE: BS: Ireland-What happened?
From: Thompson
Date: 29 Nov 10 - 11:53 AM

What happened? Well, a government with strong financial and personal links to developers failed to stop rapidly increasing house prices - they were probably frightened to, as construction was 45% of the economy in 2007 when this tipped over the edge.

The developers were borrowing heavily, mainly from one bank with just 40 depositors, Anglo Irish. Anglo Irish was borrowing the money to lend from big European and American banks (including the Landesbanks - state-owned banks - in Germany).

These superbanks don't appear to have performed due diligence (made sure that the loans were being made on a sound basis).

When the American bubble popped, with the crash of Lehman Brothers and the subsequent crash of the subprime lenders who had lent money to poor people who couldn't pay, a whole series of international loans started unwinding.

Credit stopped being available in Ireland, and the construction industry - developers, builders, plumbers, architects, suppliers, electricians, little shops selling breakfast rolls and coffee, etc, etc - just screeched to a halt. Thousands of people were on the dole within weeks. Hiding the true extent of this was the fact that anyone who could afford it went back into education to 'requalify', and anyone with a spouse rapidly disappeared off the 'live register' of people being paid relief.


In the latest disaster, the Irish banks, which were propped up by massive funding from the citizens last year, turned out to have been lying in their teeth about the extent of their exposure (bad loans). Good money has been poured after bad. The French, British, Germans and Belgians are terrified that the Irish crash, by "contagion" is going to infect banks in other vulnerable countries.

The big dread is that Spain may fall, which could bring down the whole interlinked euro economy.

Clear now?

Subject: RE: BS: Ireland-What happened?
From: GUEST,Steamin' Willie
Date: 29 Nov 10 - 11:59 AM

Well, I'm glad so many people understand what happened. Maybe you could get a post teaching at LSE?

Thing is, everybody predicted this situation but as economics is an inexact science, (guest KP may not fully agree with that?) politicians banked on everybody being wrong and anyway, it relies on market forces and the market doesn't want to self implode.

Until the markets realised they can be reckless after all, as governments will bail them out. Hence the predictions could come true after all.

And we are all Nostradamus!

Subject: RE: BS: Ireland-What happened?
From: Mrrzy
Date: 29 Nov 10 - 12:01 PM

I gegt to go to Europe this spring, will Ireland be really cheap to visit?

We went to Europe after Chernobyl, and everyone was pathetically grateful that we came at all... and every government reported that the fallout was worse (pick a neighboring country) than in their own, which was kind of funny. Sad, but funny too.

Subject: RE: BS: Ireland-What happened?
From: Thompson
Date: 29 Nov 10 - 12:09 PM

Hard to say, Mrrzy - we're in the euro, so how cheap it is depends on how the euro compares to... whatever you're using.

Hotels are certainly cheaper than they were, the ones that remain open.

Subject: RE: BS: Ireland-What happened?
From: GUEST,KP
Date: 29 Nov 10 - 12:19 PM

Steamin Willie

Nope, economics is about as inexact as it gets. Having said that, slashing interest rates in an economy which was already 'going strong' was a fairly predictable way to end in 'boom and bust'

Subject: RE: BS: Ireland-What happened?
From: Thompson
Date: 29 Nov 10 - 12:26 PM

Well, KP, we should be fine now so, since we're going to have to pay €10bn a year in interest alone on these loans.

Subject: RE: BS: Ireland-What happened?
From: The Sandman
Date: 29 Nov 10 - 12:27 PM

only part of ireland is in the euro, the other part is in the sterling.

Subject: RE: BS: Ireland-What happened?
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 29 Nov 10 - 12:29 PM

What happened in Ireland - capitalism happened; the unrestrained greed of the banks, the developers and the speculators, coupled with the ineptitude, indifference and corruption of the politicians managed to throw away all the gains made ofer the last decade or so.
The present attitude of ALL the major political parties is to screw the less well off and leaved those who created the present mess relatively untouched.
The only way that it can be claimed that "its your fault every bit as much as mine" is that we trusted the bastards in the first place.
We have a General Election on the horizon; probably the only opportunity we'll get of making them upstairs change their attitude
Keith,
As you insist on aiming your comments directly at me, please get what I've said right - and please don't fuck up yet another thread with your vacuous attention seeking.
Jim Carroll

Subject: RE: BS: Ireland-What happened?
From: GUEST,KP
Date: 29 Nov 10 - 12:53 PM

Thompson,
According to this article they'll be paying 6.7% on €85 bn or about €5.7 bn a year.

EU finance ministers meet amid row over Irish interest rate

The only good thing you could say about that is it could have been worse...at least they're not paying 9%, but its still pretty horrible.

If there is a forthcoming general election it will be interesting to see whether the various parties will actually spell out the alternatives I've listed above - whoever is in power will have to make some horrible decisions.

Subject: RE: BS: Ireland-What happened?
From: The Sandman
Date: 29 Nov 10 - 12:59 PM

Sinn Fein to their credit are the only party where the tds accept an industrial wage, and the rest goes in to party funds.
they are the only party, that is not[SO FAR] infiltrated by career politicians, Their leader is the only irish politician[imo]who has statesmanlike qualities, and who might drive a better deal for ireland with the IMF.

Subject: RE: BS: Ireland-What happened?
From: GUEST,Shimrod
Date: 29 Nov 10 - 01:22 PM

Of course what also happened is that large areas of Ireland got covered in buildings that no-one wants to buy. The same thing has happened here in Manchester where I live (with significant but somewhat less dire impacts on the economy because the British economic situation is somewhat different). What no-one seems to care about or notice is that all of this pointless building has a dire effect on the local ecology as well as the economy. Negative effects include increased run-off of water - with a consequent increase in flood risk - and decreased biodiversity. In rural areas, of course, covering potential farmland in concrete means that that farmland can never be used for producing food if it is ever needed in the future.

Subject: RE: BS: Ireland-What happened?
From: The Sandman
Date: 29 Nov 10 - 01:46 PM

What no-one seems to care about or notice is that all of this pointless building has a dire effect on the local ecology as well as the economy. Negative effects include increased run-off of water - with a consequent increase in flood risk - and decreased biodiversity. In rural areas, of course, covering potential farmland in concrete means that that farmland can never be used for producing food if it is ever needed in the future.
I agree, which is why i have never sold off land for building.
i have[when i have needed to] gone out and busked instead, and everyone told me i was a nut case.

Subject: RE: BS: Ireland-What happened?
From: kendall
Date: 29 Nov 10 - 07:55 PM

What happened? GREED.

Subject: RE: BS: Ireland-What happened?
From: Keith A of Hertford
Date: 30 Nov 10 - 03:18 AM

"please get what I've said right "

Cut and pasted quote!

Subject: RE: BS: Ireland-What happened?
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 30 Nov 10 - 03:29 AM

"Cut and pasted quote!"
Yup - that's what you do best - if out of context, which you also do quite well.
Jim Carroll

Subject: RE: BS: Ireland-What happened?
From: Keith A of Hertford
Date: 30 Nov 10 - 03:35 AM

The quote IN context.
thread.cfm?threadid=133667&messages=107#3035800

Subject: RE: BS: Ireland-What happened?
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 30 Nov 10 - 05:56 AM

"The quote IN context."
The present crisis is an international one affecting many countries.
In spite of the mess that Britain left the country in (unchallenged by you, who have consistently argued that because a carefuly selected minority of the population of Ireland are in favour of partition, there is no other alternative), Ireland eventually did well out of Europe and became one of the leading European states.
The present crisis, caused by the very nature of capitalism, has lost any gains made over the last couple of decades.
That is my attitude to what is happening at present and that of most people on this thread, in Ireland, Britain and all over the world, (you have declined to comment and, in your usual fashion, have leeched off other people's opinions and suggestions).
Jim Carroll

Subject: RE: BS: Ireland-What happened?
From: Keith A of Hertford
Date: 30 Nov 10 - 06:04 AM

OK, but not what you said before.
Re partition, they did not want in, so force them against their will?

Subject: RE: BS: Ireland-What happened?
From: mikesamwild
Date: 30 Nov 10 - 06:19 AM

I heard a nice story the other day.

An American tourist hands over 100 Euro at a hotel. The hotelier pays his butcher with it, the butcher pays his petrol bill, the garage guy buys a meal and some drinks at the hotel.
Then the Yank comes back and complains and gets a 100 Euro refund.

GNP has increased and the economy is still working.
QED?

Subject: RE: BS: Ireland-What happened?
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 30 Nov 10 - 07:19 AM

"Re partition, they did not want in, so force them against their will?"
One more time - a carefully selected minority of the population did not want in.
Partitioning Ireland is about as democratic as allowing the Home Counties to leave the UK and become the 51st state of the US - no matter how many Londoners might be in favour of it - countries don't work like that.
Jim Carroll

Subject: RE: BS: Ireland-What happened?
From: Keith A of Hertford
Date: 30 Nov 10 - 07:51 AM

The 6 counties self selected.
They did not want to join.
So force them to?
Not very liberal.
Quite fascist even.

Subject: RE: BS: Ireland-What happened?
From: GUEST,KP
Date: 30 Nov 10 - 07:57 AM

An article criticizing the rescue deal from the Daily Telegraph (slightly surprising source).

Ireland's Debt Servitude

I have to apologise for a mistake in my earlier post. Ireland did run a surplus in the 'good years' (unlike the UK) - its just that the money needed to stabilise the Banks is so huge that it's driving them into deficit.

Subject: RE: BS: Ireland-What happened?
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 30 Nov 10 - 08:10 AM

"Quite fascist even."
You're at it again, and after all that whingeing and snivelling about being called a racist.
If it is fascist to suggest the border is the sole cause of 90 years of discontent and bloodshed because two thirds of the population of six counties wish it to remain; how fascist is it to suggest that it should be put there in the first place, despite that fact that the vast majority of the population of Ireland were so opposed to it that they fought a civil war over it?
I take it you believe that it is acceptible that the Home Counties become the 51st State should the majority of those counties wish it?
Don't (continue to ) be a pratt
Jim Carroll

Subject: RE: BS: Ireland-What happened?
From: GUEST,Steamin' Willie
Date: 30 Nov 10 - 08:24 AM

There's one t in prat Jim, but bear with me, there is a reason for my pedantry.

We have a global finance structure in the world, which through increased communications terchnology, internet etc, has shrunk the world to the effect that the beat of a butterfly in China can cause the drains to block in Peru or whatever the ruddy quote is.

Sorry, but all this talk about some historical struggle, about how The UK shafted its neighbour for so long, about Trevellion and his policies, about black and tans, about pikesmen in 1798, about holes appearing in the wall of a post office, about signing the book of condolence at the German embassy in 1945, about influx of EU restructuring money throughout the '90s and beyond, about guinness, about .....................

It is all there, I grant you.

But it has nothing whatsoever to do with the naivety of the Irish government in stoking an overheated economy whilst pissing off EU partners with its tax laws.

That, not poetic history is the cause of the present problem.

Subject: RE: BS: Ireland-What happened?
From: Keith A of Hertford
Date: 30 Nov 10 - 08:26 AM

I bet two thirds of Mexicans want California.
Are you sure the civil war was about the border?
Not something to do with the status of the Republic?

So you really do think they should have been subjugated by force.
That is not at all liberal.
That is fascism.

Subject: RE: BS: Ireland-What happened?
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 30 Nov 10 - 09:18 AM

Willie
"But it has nothing whatsoever to do with the naivety of the Irish government in stoking an overheated economy whilst pissing off EU partners with its tax laws."
Could not agtree more - but I would point out that this is a world-wide problem in which no country comes out with clean hands, Ireland, UK -
you name it, they've all taken part in nausing up the world economy.
They have also all opted for the old usual solution of making the poor pay for the transgressions of the rich - or have I missed the bit where they've attempted to take from those who can afford it rather than closing hospitals, cutting the minimun wage, bleeding pensions, raising education fees......? Don't think so.
You are also right that Ireland's history has no direct bearing on the present state of affairs here - that's just Dickhead licking past wounds.
Full recovery and lasting peace in Ireland is a different matter.
Jim Carroll