Review: Sinn Féin Secures Five

Subject: Sinn Féin Secures Five
From: GUEST,I.R. Believer
Date: 20 May 02 - 01:23 PM

Sinn Féin Secures Five

Sinn Féin, made a big breakthrough topping the poll in three constituencies, and taking a seat in Dublin for the first time since 1916.

Dick Spring, the former Labour party leader, lost his seat in Kerry North to Sinn Féin's Martin Ferris a local hero.

Michael Noonan resigned as leader of Fine Gael after the party's worst result since 1948, losing more than 20 seats.

Sinn Fein is dedicated to reuniting both parts of divided Ireland. The Sinn Féin triumph in the twenty-six counties is a major endorsement of the party's leadership. Despite all the black propaganda, the slurs cast, the moral blackmailing, the lies and scare-mongering, it is sweet to know that the spirit of Irish republicanism in the twenty-six counties has not been extinguished but is set to flourish.

Subject: RE: Review: Sinn Féin Secures Five
From: The Pooka
Date: 20 May 02 - 05:11 PM

The results are indeed a strong gain for Sinn Fein---but also for the Green Party (not republican-type green; environmentalist-type green), the Progressive Democrats, and assorted independents. Per the Irish Times, SF goes up from 1 seat to 5, Greens from 2 to 6, PDs from 4 to 8, and independents from 6 to 13. Fine Gael suffered a major loss, from 54 seats down to 31 at latest count. Fianna Fail's is actually a modest gain, from 77 seats to 80, with one seat apparently still undecided. Labour stays the same at 21. In net effect, the "small parties" and independents gained more from the rout of Fine Gael than Fianna Fail did.

An Irish Times article says Bertie Ahern, several seats shy of an absolute majority of 84, ".... is to hold talks with Independent TDs this week, to confirm his ability to lead a stable minority government without the Progressive Democrats, before opening coalition discussions with Ms Mary Harney. In a ploy aimed at reducing PD demands for extra government positions, Mr Ahern is to speak to at least five Independents to ascertain if a deal could be done with them in return for their support. Senior Fianna Fáil sources believe the availability of such a deal will weaken the PDs' bargaining position and give Mr Ahern a fallback option." (PD was FF's coalition partner for the past 5 years.)

Sinn Fein did well, narrowly missing a sixth seat in a recount in Ahern's own Dublin Central district, where Bertie's running-mate edged out the SF man by getting many more 2nd-choice "transfer" votes. (I gather SF tends to be many voter's first choice---or last. Not surprisingly.) SF's wins were 2 in northern Border regions (Cavan-Monaghan where they had their sole previous incumbent, and Louth), 2 in Dublin city, and 1 in Kerry North where candidate Martin Ferris was locally popular though of course controversial (he had served time for attempted gunrunning from the U.S.).

But keep in mind that Sinn Fein's 5 seats are out of 166 total, and they got 6.5% of the "first-preference" popular votes in the complex preferential voting system. That's a big gain----but it's still 6.5%. (I'm guessing it would've been closer to 10% if SF had entered a candidate in every constituency, which they did not. Automatic 0% in several districts doesn't help the overall score.)

Bertie said yesterday that he's happy SF has started down the political road (& I believe he modestly took some credit for steering them toward that peaceful path :) ; but that they cannot become part of a coalition government until "there is no IRA" any more. / Now THAT's "decomissioning."

Subject: RE: Review: Sinn Féin Secures Five
From: McGrath of Harlow
Date: 20 May 02 - 05:27 PM

I imagine all the spin actually helped Sinn Fein.

But the election that matters more will be the one in the North. With the Dublin one it's just a matter of whose going to pulled in to enable Fianna Fail to have a coalition. (And even if they scrape a single party majority, all parties are coalitions anyway, and none anywhere more so than FF.)

Subject: RE: Review: Sinn Féin Secures Five
From: The Pooka
Date: 20 May 02 - 06:43 PM

McG. - I've been out-of-touch lately -- is a NI Assembly election now *scheduled*?? Certainly that will be a biggie, whenever it happens. Clearly SF is still much stronger in the North than in Eire, probably now eclipsing SDLP within the republican NI community. Even as Paisley's party bids to surpass Trimble's, on that side.

SF's northern strength seems to leach across the Border, into Cavan, Monaghan and now Louth. But not Donegal. Weak there. (Why? Innate conservatism?) But come to think of it, the personnel & materiel of SF's other "wing" ---y'know, the one from which they are totally distinct, as they so often explain---used to slide back & forth across the Border too, didn't they? (& the past tense is correct---*isn't* it??)

In the Republic, I gather that Bertie will definitely need coalition partners (above & beyond the FF "coalition" that is), if only 3 or 4 to reach a bare majority. FF's actual net gain, though solid, wasn't really spectacular either in TDs or in popular-vote percentage. What was spectacular was the crash of FG in number of seats held. Ah 'twas a turrible slaughter.

Subject: RE: Review: Sinn Féin Secures Five
From: GUEST
Date: 20 May 02 - 06:51 PM

Superficially, the results seem to favor FF. But considering the seats FG lost, for the most part, did NOT go to FF or Labour, but rather to the Indendents and left of center parties (Socialist, Greens, SF) means that the Irish electorate is looking for serious opposition parties, not just revolving door ministries between FG/FF with whomever the current Labour/PD leader in opposition.

It really does seem as though 20-25% of the electorate are interested in substantial change from the political institutions.

To suggest that the SF gains in the Republic don't really matter is a ludicrous idea, IMO. If in the next election SF is able to keep their momentum going in the north, they will become the most powerful republican force on the island. And that will make waves, north and south.

Subject: RE: Review: Sinn Féin Secures Five
From: The Pooka
Date: 20 May 02 - 07:20 PM

Guest - I doubt that anyone studying the results would suggest, and I certainly don't, that "SF gains in the Republic don't really matter." When a party quintuples its bloc in the Dail and likewise multiplies its popular vote, it most definitely matters --- especially when there's been a scare-campaign against such party. And I agree with what you said about the next election---if that trend does continue, as well it may.

I just wish SF supporters would celebrate their very real, and significant, gains without proclaiming or implying that 5 seats and a 6.5% vote is already a massive national mandate. It's a good performance and it matters. Only one seat targeted as winnable (Dublin Central) was lost, and that barely. Just don't spoil the credibility with exaggeration, that's all. You're on the One Road, it *isn't* the Wrong Road; but it takes a while to get there.

Subject: RE: Review: Sinn Féin Secures Five
From: paddymac
Date: 20 May 02 - 07:24 PM

If memory serves, every SF candidate running for the second time (or more) had an increased vote. The interesting statistic is that SF seemed to gain most among younger voters and in the bigger cities. That, I think is a fairly standard phenomenon in most of the world; i.e.; older and rural voters tend to be more conservative while younger and urban voters tend to be more accepting of "challenger" parties. Their gains this time round were huge in the statistical sense, but still very small potatoes in the overall picture. Maybe that's part of the price paid for all those decades of abstentionism. Their current strategy and work ethic will no doubt pay great dividends for them in the longer term.

Brit PM Blair has been helping a fund raising consortium for NI, allegedly based largely on fears of SDLP that they may effectively disappear in the '03 (?) election without serious fundraising help. Guess Nimble doesn't mind over much having a papist as a deputy, but would not, or could not, stand for him to be a "Fenian Bastard" as well.

Subject: RE: Review: Sinn Féin Secures Five
From: GUEST
Date: 20 May 02 - 07:44 PM

I think the most impressive statistics are the *combined* gains of Sinn Fein and the Greens. They need to seriously look at coalition building with one another (and the Socialist dude), methinks.

Subject: RE: Review: Sinn Féin Secures Five
From: The Pooka
Date: 20 May 02 - 08:08 PM

Re Coalition building: what about the Labour party, with their 21 seats? Showing my American ignorance here, & so here goes: are they a "real" Labour party? And thus amenable to a potential Left coalition? Or--not??

Subject: RE: Review: Sinn Féin Secures Five
From: GUEST
Date: 20 May 02 - 09:01 PM

Not with Sinn Fein. They fear exactly what is happening anyway--Sinn Fein does have an in with their voter base of left leaners. The RoI Labour Party doesn't have a northern party, which makes them very vulnerable in the future of the island. And make no mistake, that is what this is about. The future of the island of Ireland, not just politics as usual in the Republic on the one hand, and the north on the other.

Socialists (well, sort of), Greens and Sinn Fein are the only island-wide parties. Eventually, that IS going to make a difference.

Subject: RE: Review: Sinn Féin Secures Five
From: Peter K (Fionn)
Date: 20 May 02 - 09:26 PM

Pooka I think the guest's comment was aimed at McGrath's dismissive attitude to the results in the south.

To me the SF result does come as a surprise, I must admit - I really thought the Colombia fiasco would have done them some damage if not the other hyped up nonsense. Just a hunch, but I wouldn't be surprised if some of SF's success was down to the personal qualities of Martin McGuinness, who has taken up the responsibilities of government impressively (and I wouldn't be surprised to see Trimble or whoever succeeds him being ready to do business with McGuinness some time soon).

The gain for the Greens is impressive and may have been fuelled by increasing anxieties among a few, at least, that Ireland is selling its soul in its determination to cling on to what might be a short-lived boom.

If I'd been around 80 years ago, I like to think I'd have been with Collins's free staters, so the sight of FF(the party of Dev, who set back Ireland's cause so tragically by forcing the civil war) regaining its parliamentary strength seems ironic to me. But then the modern-day parties seem to have shed most of their past associations. Overall I think what we've got is a great outcome for Ireland, and much more significant than McGrath seems to imply. In an ideal world I suppose I'd always like to see Labour doing better at the expense of both FG and FF.

Subject: RE: Review: Sinn Féin Secures Five
From: The Pooka
Date: 21 May 02 - 04:06 AM

Thanks Fionn. Good points. / Re Dev's party & Collins' Free Staters, here's a good tongue-in-cheek piece from The Irish Times, Monday:


Bertie employs handshakes to crush SF rebels By Frank McNally

More than 24 hours after he retained his Dáil seat, the Taoiseach finally turned up at the RDS count centre last night, and in doing so reclaimed the building from Sinn Féin. Not since 1916 had a strategic Dublin position been so grimly held by republican rebels as during yesterday's recount for the seat won narrowly by Bertie Ahern's running-mate.

Sinn Féin had manned the barricades - the barricades lining the Dublin Central count area - from early morning, outflanking the once-impregnable Fianna Fáil tallying operation. The defenders of Dermot Fitzpatrick's 74-vote majority fought bravely all day, but were hopelessly outnumbered.

There was never much prospect of Nicky Kehoe overturning the result. But the triumph of failure remains a powerful concept in the republican movement; and, while there was still a chance, the Sinn Féiners made their presence felt.

Gerry Adams was there most of the day, along with Mitchel McLaughlin, Bairbre de Brún and Pat Doherty. At one point, as the recount continued below, the party leaders even held a round-table meeting on the balcony.

The insurgents would probably have run the Tricolour up the RDS pole, except that, luckily, it was there already. But this didn't stop supporters waving it for the cameras all weekend as if it was an act of provocation in the South.

As the recount dragged on, however, the rebels were coming under increasing pressure from reality. And shortly before 8 p.m. last night they surrendered, by the traditional method of carrying their defeated candidate shoulder-high and singing "Here we go, here we go, here we go."

When the rival supporters lined up together for the formal declaration, the scene seemed set for a confrontation. In scenes reminiscent of the 1920s, there were loud shouts of "C'mon the Shinners" and "Up Fianna Fáil", while competing banners claimed that each was the real republican party.

But hopes of a moral victory for Sinn Féin disappeared with the news that the Taoiseach was on the way, carrying the weapon which had destroyed Fine Gael and routed all opposition to the Government. Sure enough, when Mr Ahern arrived, he immediately deployed his notorious handshaking capability on all and sundry. Several leading Sinn Féin members were on the receiving end.

And when one of the suddenly quiet Kehoe supporters remarked: "Fair play to him, he shook hands with Nicky", it was clear that they, like the rest of the country, had been Bertied. Accompanied by his daughters and surrounded by supporters, including the builder Joe Burke, the Taoiseach looked tired but happy.

Earlier, he congratulated his supporters on winning 4,000 votes "in the Taoiseach's constituency". But there was general relief when the threat of a legal challenge to the result receded. For anyone with a sense of history, the idea of republicans heading for the Four Courts is not a happy one.

Subject: RE: Review: Sinn Féin Secures Five
From: McGrath of Harlow
Date: 21 May 02 - 07:14 AM

Dismissive attitude? Not so - it mattered, but what mattered less was how well Fianna Fail was going to do, seeing that it was always going to be the biggest party, and never an overall majority.

And it took two to start the Civil War, Fionn. Or rather it took three, with the English Tories playing far the biggest part in it. But there's no use in getting into that.

Subject: RE: Review: Sinn Féin Secures Five
From: GUEST
Date: 21 May 02 - 07:20 AM

When I read the above IT article, my immediate thought was "and just who is it that refuses to leave the past behind?" Let's face it, without Sinn Fein as a "dangerous" party, there isn't much excitement and hype one can engage in regarding Irish politics. That is exactly the kind of sensational shite that sells papers (and the soul of Ireland with it).

Subject: RE: Review: Sinn Féin Secures Five
From: Fiolar
Date: 21 May 02 - 09:13 AM

All in all Sinn Fein gained seats as a result of getting the votes of those who felt that the "Celtic Tiger" success had passed them by as well as from the young voters who feel that the ruling Fianna Fail party has done sod all for them. The positive side is that day of the gunmen in Ireland seems to be finally ending. I say with some tongue in cheek as long as the loyalist and dissident Republican gangs seek to disrupt the peace process. The next problem for Bertie is the next referendum on the Nice question, which if 'catters recall was defeated last time around.

Subject: RE: Review: Sinn Féin Secures Five
From: GUEST
Date: 21 May 02 - 09:27 AM

And the polls show is even less likely to win now.

Subject: RE: Review: Sinn Féin Secures Five
From: The Pooka
Date: 21 May 02 - 11:41 AM

I may be wrong of course; but I didn't read the IT article as "sensational shite" at all. Seemed obviously, intentionally, harmlessly humorous to me. Bit of parody, made possible *only* by republicans' actually trading-in the bullet for the ballot. I found it mildly funny; and mildly *favorable* in its portrayal of today's political/democratic SF.

Subject: RE: Review: Sinn Féin Secures Five
From: GUEST
Date: 21 May 02 - 11:47 AM

Well, of course, it could be considered funny by someone I suppose. But first, you'd have to find an Irish person who actually believed you could find ANY humourous writing in the IT. I would say most Irish don't turn first to the IT for humourous journalism. I believe the Independent is the more likely winner in that regard.

Subject: RE: Review: Sinn Féin Secures Five
From: Seamus Kennedy
Date: 21 May 02 - 02:06 PM

Guest, well, not since Myles NagCopaleen anyway.

Seamus

Subject: RE: Review: Sinn Féin Secures Five
From: Airto
Date: 21 May 02 - 02:13 PM

Concerning Donegal, Pooka, the presence of Independent Fianna Fail, a local machine dating back to Neil Blaney (one of the Arms Trial Ministers and more republican than the official FF), limits the opportunities for SF there.

Regarding the Labour Party, they must be very disappointed that they didn't profit from Fine Gael's losses. Many of the Independents who won seats were running on issues to do with the health service, which ought to be a natural constituency for a Labour party.

It was also noticeable that many Green votes transferred to Labour in places where the Green candidate was eliminated first. Again, this is an area where a worthwhile social democrat party should be picking up votes.

Sinn Fein used to find it very difficult to get votes in the south, even where candidates were working extremely hard. Even now, with the IRA on ceasefire, many potential voters prefer to look elsewhere if a radical left wing alternative exists, such as the Socialist Party or some of the independents.

Not so long ago, the Workers Party/Democratic Left were in a similar position to SF before self-destructing. SF did well in enough in several constituencies to have hopes of further gains next time, but electoral politics is a slow business.

By the way, one point that Unionists will increasingly make is that they have been forced to share power in the north with SF when no party in the south would agree to do so. Even fewer in the south would relish Martin McGuinness as Minister for Education than in the north.

The intervention of SF in southern politics could have some unforeseen effects!

Subject: RE: Review: Sinn Féin Secures Five
From: GUEST
Date: 21 May 02 - 02:18 PM

;-)

Subject: RE: Review: Sinn Féin Secures Five
From: The Pooka
Date: 21 May 02 - 02:29 PM

Guest, re finding humour in the IT: well then, my non-Irishpersonhood must be showing. Despite all the McNamara, Quinn & Keane ancestry on me dear mother's side, God rest her. But Seamus K., since I truncated my Mudcat name from a Myles na gCopaleen character (The Pooka Fergus MacPhellimey), I'll stick with the Irish Times & laugh it up anyway. In Flann O'Brien's memory. :)

Airto - thanks for that info & analysis! By God a feller can learn a lot around this here 'Cat.

Subject: RE: Review: Sinn Féin Secures Five
From: Peter K (Fionn)
Date: 21 May 02 - 07:54 PM

One good reason for not geting into all that, McGrath, is that the English Tories had sod all to do with it. Collins signed up for the best deal available, and I've never seen it seriously argued either by journos writing the first draft of history or in the judgment of subsequent analysts that he could have held out for more. Or that L-G's threat of war was a bluff.

I don't see how Dev's huffing and puffing back in Dublin was going to alter the balance of the British parliament to produce a result more to his liking. Anyway, Collins brought the treaty back and the Dail supported it. After all, it went beyond the wildest dreams of the 1916 romantics. But at this point Dev decided that representative democracy had its shortcomings and resorted to armed ocnflict instead. It achieved nothing of course, and was grievously destructive.

On what basis do you implicate Collins or Bonar Law or anyone else in that catastrophe? I would have thought it was pretty obvious that if Dev had managed to bring himself to continue working in partnership with Collins, a 32-counties republic would have been achieved long before now.

Subject: RE: Review: Sinn Féin Secures Five
From: Peter K (Fionn)
Date: 21 May 02 - 07:57 PM

Forgot to say, spot on, Airto!

Subject: RE: Review: Sinn Féin Secures Five
From: Fiolar
Date: 22 May 02 - 08:42 AM

Fionn: Agree with you 100%. I was brought up only a few miles from where "The Big Fella" was born and reared and have always held that Dev hated him for being a far better man than he could ever hope to be. He was in America when Michael took the brunt of the struggle. During that time, Dev's family was supported by Michael. He followed Dev's orders to go to London to negotiate a Treaty and got the best deal available. Smaller minded men tried to undo what he gained. I wonder if Michael had been in charge at the time, what deal Dev could have got.

Subject: RE: Review: Sinn Féin Secures Five
From: GUEST
Date: 22 May 02 - 08:49 AM

Ah, that's not exactly the way they see it in Donegal and Derry though, lads. ;-)