BS: This is how much oil we have burned

Subject: BS: This is how much oil we have burned
From: Donuel
Date: 05 Jul 08 - 11:23 AM

We are at the halfway point of oil reserves on Earth.

Converting usage, gallons, barrels and other factors into a nearly comprehensible mental picture was not easy.

I will illustrate a picture of this but in the meantime ...

We have used the same number of gallons of water in Lake Erie 43 times over.

Thats 43 Lake Eries full of oil and set ablaze.

We have about 43 more Lake Erie's of oil left to burn.

Now that is a mental picture!

Subject: RE: BS: This is how much oil we have burned
From: Donuel
Date: 05 Jul 08 - 11:28 AM

To me this is very Eerie.

Subject: RE: BS: This is how much oil we have burned
From: Donuel
Date: 05 Jul 08 - 11:30 AM

This is NOT a mental picture that Exon - Mobile wwould want you to have.

Subject: RE: BS: This is how much oil we have burned
From: GUEST,Eagle
Date: 05 Jul 08 - 11:31 AM

To me it's very Eyrie.

Subject: RE: BS: This is how much oil we have burned
From: Donuel
Date: 05 Jul 08 - 12:28 PM

http://usera.imagecave.com/donuel/don/PeakOil.jpg

Subject: RE: BS: This is how much oil we have burned
From: Donuel
Date: 05 Jul 08 - 12:32 PM

PLEASE try to get this picture passed around in the public domain the best way you know how.

Subject: RE: BS: This is how much oil we have burned
From: Q (Frank Staplin)
Date: 05 Jul 08 - 12:45 PM

Where did you get those figures?
Without documentation, your post has little validity.

Why just put the onus on Exxon-Mobil?

It seems to me that the millions who use petroleum products, and have used them since long before Exxon-Mobil existed, have a hand in the use of fossil fuels.

Subject: RE: BS: This is how much oil we have burned
From: Ebbie
Date: 05 Jul 08 - 12:48 PM

Donuel, if I'm not mistaken, the 'halfway' point is used, not to denote that only half of the reserves remains but a complicated system of analyising usage and effects.

Subject: RE: BS: This is how much oil we have burned
From: Bill D
Date: 05 Jul 08 - 01:26 PM

It is, of course, a matter of debate as to how much of the 'actual' oil reserves we have used...and whether this represents total reserves or just 'easily obtainable' reserves. But it IS good to keep in perspective that even though we have been using oil seriously for just over 100 years, we are now worried about it! The next 100 years will go by pretty fast, and someone better get to planning!

Subject: RE: BS: This is how much oil we have burned
From: Bee
Date: 05 Jul 08 - 01:29 PM

If we don't start gearing for change, it is a fact our children's children will certainly curse our bones.

Subject: RE: BS: This is how much oil we have burned
From: pdq
Date: 05 Jul 08 - 02:05 PM

It is not a lack of oil that is going to cause the enormous problems in the next few generations, it is overpopulation. Last time I read about the subject, Kenya had eight live births per adult female. That sounds like part of a contest to see who can out-reproduce the other tribes.

It seems that Westernized democracies are trying to be responsible and few others countries are.

Subject: RE: BS: This is how much oil we have burned
From: Conservative...YES!!
Date: 05 Jul 08 - 03:16 PM

I don't see what the problem is.

If this is correct, and I very highly doubt that it is, then let's drill it and use it. In quantity, it is the cheapest form of energy and in the meanwhile, continue searching for the alternate form of cheap energy that everybody says is out there, but for some reason, nobobdy has seemed to let it be available to the public.

Where is it?



YES!!

Subject: RE: BS: This is how much oil we have burned
From: Peace
Date: 05 Jul 08 - 03:18 PM

"Conservative...YES!!"

I think I know who you are. No offense, but I didn't vote for you last time.

Subject: RE: BS: This is how much oil we have burned
From: Conservative...YES!!
Date: 05 Jul 08 - 03:34 PM

Ur a smart one, Brucie!

Subject: RE: BS: This is how much oil we have burned
From: Q (Frank Staplin)
Date: 05 Jul 08 - 03:52 PM

Skyrocketing use by China, India and other industrializing countries ('the little tigers' of Asia, Brazil, etc.), is putting the pressure on supplies at this time, but yes, overpopulation exerts pressure on all resources and the planet which provides them. The need is for their petrochemical industries as well as for energy.

Oil reserves are actively being searched for, and will be exploited unless they are wholly beyond reason. Much of the 'half' remaining (that some people talk about), is difficult and expensive to produce, and may cause severe damage to environments if produced. In any case, its exploitation will not reduce the price paid per barrel.

Alternative sources are the best bet, and should be gradually implemented as petroleum diminishes.
Total, the French oil major, is calling for use of alternative sources of energy in their advs., in order to reserve as much petroleum as possible for petrochemicals and transportation needs.

Often ignored in the press is the need for petroleum input into petrochemicals. They contribute to nearly all the plastic-based substances we use. These usages are large and are constantly growing.

Much coal remains, but practical collectors and uses for greenhouse gases must be devised. It is the main fossil fuel used in the generation of electricity.

Subject: RE: BS: This is how much oil we have burned
From: GUEST,Shimrod
Date: 05 Jul 08 - 04:25 PM

The truly scary figure is not the number of Lake Eries but the figure of 100 years - that's only around four generations.

Let's say that the human race has been on this planet for (off the top of my head) 2 million years - that's 80,000 generations. And the last tiny fraction of those generations have nearly used up at least one natural resource. Something tells me that we're probably not going to be around for another 80,000 generations - perhaps not even for another four ...

Subject: RE: BS: This is how much oil we have burned
From: Bill D
Date: 05 Jul 08 - 04:56 PM

I often disagree with pdq on issues, so it is nice when I can just roundly agree with him....population IS the overriding 'keystone' of the Earth's problems.
We can find better ways to generate power and really USE them , create new types of grain with better yields, farm certain types of fish, learn to recycle materials, get better at controlling chemical pollution, change our habits regarding automobiles and even learn to do without certain things.....but IF population increases ---or even remains the same!!--- we will not be able to sustain a comfortable quality of life for most people. We do not NOW have the ability to feed everyone properly or provide them decent living space.
This situation is more apparent in 3rd world countries, but if you look in the right places, developed nations are straining to keep up in providing clean water, growing enough food and dealing with disasters. And if, as seems likely, this warming trend continues, (no matter WHAT you feel is causing it!!!), it will exacerbate almost all those other problems.
A microcosm of the situation can be studied by just looking at Easter Island during the last several hundred years. They made some of the same errors we are making now...both physically and culturally... and paid by having their small civilization collapse. No, they did not 'all' die, and neither will we, but their lifestyle was severely affected...as ours will be... if we don't reduce our population to a level capable of sustaining life at a comfortable level.

Subject: RE: BS: This is how much oil we have burned
From: Lord Batman's Kitchener
Date: 05 Jul 08 - 05:17 PM

I firmly believe that the poster, Conservative....YES!!! is one of those who should not be taken too seriously, so I'm not taking him/her too seriously

Subject: RE: BS: This is how much oil we have burned
From: Amos
Date: 05 Jul 08 - 05:17 PM

Gettin' a little slippery with the numbers, there. Over-simplifying, what? We haven't been

The Lower Paleolithic predates Homo sapiens, beginning with Homo habilis and the earliest use of stone tools some 2.5 million years ago. Homo sapiens originated some 200,000 years ago.

IF you count 25 years to a generation, h. sapiens has been toddling around for 8,000 generations. And bear in mind thatit has only been abouyt 12 thousand years since the end of the Ice Age, and only about ten thousand since the beginnings of agriculture which really marks the turn of civilization toward industry dependent on and the major trends accompanying it. Around the time of the Sumerian civilization, say. So if you measure from there, we're only talking about 400 generations. And the very earliest known use of petroleum was around 4500 years ago in ancient Babylon. So our consumption of oil should be measured over that period, or 180 generations.

As regards the total amount of oil left on the planet, it is not likely to be extracted inexpensively. We're not talking about back yard gushers. Converting shale, or drilling a hundred miles out in the Gulf of Mexico, are not likely to bring in oil in sufficient volume at a low enough cost to take the sting out of the economy. ANd they can't be on line for a number of years. Ask Q about this.






A

Subject: RE: BS: This is how much oil we have burned
From: GUEST,Shimrod
Date: 05 Jul 08 - 06:13 PM

"And the very earliest known use of petroleum was around 4500 years ago in ancient Babylon. So our consumption of oil should be measured over that period, or 180 generations."

Slipperiness with figures is obviously catching! the statement above implies that we have been using oil in a linear fashion for 4,500 years - quite obviously we haven't - so now who's oversimplifying?

And anyway we've had at least 80,000 generations of tool-using, human-like hominids

And even if it's 4 generations in 8,000 who have used most of the oil, rather than 4 in 80,000, I maintain that those are still pretty scary figures!

My point remains the same.

Subject: RE: BS: This is how much oil we have burned
From: Amos
Date: 05 Jul 08 - 06:18 PM

It implies no such thing, Shimrod--it simply defines the time-frame in which we have been using oil. As to scariness, well, sure; we have to face up to being the BigGorilla on this planet, something we have never taken responsibility for before, and in fact, it also requires we think as a species rather than as tribes, something else we have hardly ever done.


A

Subject: RE: BS: This is how much oil we have burned
From: Donuel
Date: 05 Jul 08 - 07:42 PM

My illustration is not a dissertation nor are pictures generally worth a thousand words.

This visual concept is one that people can handle. If you talk about trillions of gallons or 10,000 barrels per second the human mind does not grasp the numbers well.

To me it is more dynamic than seeing a photo of the North pole without ice.

If we do drill off every US state coast with oil we have gained about 5 months worth. Do it if you want and risk oil spoiled shores, but an alternative that exceeds 5 months of energy would be best.

Subject: RE: BS: This is how much oil we have burned
From: Ebbie
Date: 05 Jul 08 - 08:17 PM

In a serious leap to port, let me say that I'm not too worried about fuels. I have no doubt but that if needs must we would use coal and hang the consequences, although we would probably promise ourselves that we would continue the search for better scrubbers.

No. What I am far more concerned about is water.

Subject: RE: BS: This is how much oil we have burned
From: The Fooles Troupe
Date: 05 Jul 08 - 08:40 PM

Re Overpopulation:

Read the novelette "Play Little Victims: by Kenneth Cook.

Subject: RE: BS: This is how much oil we have burned
From: Bobert
Date: 05 Jul 08 - 09:04 PM

It really isn't about how many Lake Earies worth of oil remain... It's about efficeincy and developing renewable energy sources...

The population issue is, of course, compounding the problem...

On efficiency, there is no reason why people can't work where they live... This is an urban planning challenge... There is no reason why we don't have real "mass transit" that is envor4onmentally friendly and efficient... This also is a matter of palnning...

Mankind hasn't quite got this planning thing down... It is still in some post-industrial/techonlogical revolution hangover and hasn't yet come to grips with today's reality... Maybe the bst thing that ever happened to the feveloped world is high energy cost to jusmp start the creativity that mankind needs to put forth for it to survive???

The solutions are there but they will ask people to change their life styles and their attitudes... I think this is happening and I think these...

...are exciting times to be part of...

B~

Subject: RE: BS: This is how much oil we have burned
From: Q (Frank Staplin)
Date: 06 Jul 08 - 12:08 AM

"work where they live"- a good point. The way most cities develop in the United States and Canada mitigates against efficient mass transit. New York is relatively good; to a large extent transit grew as the city grew. I think some of the other NE cities are good.
Many cities are playing catch-up, they have grown many miles in all directions and city fathers kept taxes low to stay in office, but infrastructure costs were constantly increasing. Now an efficient city is beyond the means of the citizens.

Many major European cities are compact- I remember starting out on a walk from Brussels city center, and it was not long before I reached the outskirts and farms. In the new western city of Calgary, I could walk all day before I reached the end of the suburbs or industrial districts, depending on the direction I took. Little more than token expansions to mass transit are made because the citizens and the aldermen look at the bill and back away, so one continues to drive miles to work. To get away from the city, bedroom communities have developed outside of the city limits. Houston was very bad, some people who worked where I did drove many miles and an hour or more to get away from the 'dangerous' city and schools with low standards- buses ran infrequently, mostly to get maids and illegal immigrants to their chores.

Perhaps sophisticated communications, allowing many people to work at home, plus mass shopping from on-line stores to reduce trips to malls- dunno.