BS: Trends Research Institute - for real?

Subject: BS: Trends Research Institute - for real?
From: katlaughing
Date: 13 Jan 10 - 05:03 PM

A friend of mine was just telling me about Gerald Celente, supposedly the best trends predictor in the world. He claims we will have rioting, etc. by 2012 in the USA. Would some of you who study such things, i.e. commerce, trends, logic, esp. logic, etc. take a look and give me your take on his claims, please: His Website.

Red Flags I noticed...he's making money, of course, with his predictions AND promises to teach YOU how to profit from the disasters. I know that's enough to put me off, but my friend needs more convincing.

Thanks!

kat

Subject: RE: BS: Trends Research Institute - for real?
From: Bill D
Date: 13 Jan 10 - 05:11 PM

If he's THAT good, why tell anyone else? Just play the market and get filthy rich and let' em wonder how you do it! No need to sell tips...that just lets others weaken YOUR earnings.

Subject: RE: BS: Trends Research Institute - for real?
From: Jack the Sailor
Date: 13 Jan 10 - 05:26 PM

Just seems like general "tea leaf reader" stuff to me. He claims to have predicted the "Panic" of 2008. But in that same prediction he claimed that "Wage riots" would be part of the panic. If there was a panic then the panic is certainly done. Have you seen news of "Wage riots" by "the angry masses?" Along with that he seems to have totally missed the Tea baggers.

Not that predicting rioting in the US at some time in a three year span is a pretty safe bet. The US is a big place and "riots" have been triggered by things as trivial as a sports team winning a championship.

He appears to be making the case for his "abilities" by cherry picking among his dozens of "predictions" and even them he is bending them after the fact to make them closer to the outcomes.

Nice parlor trick. I would not invest in it.

I knew several years ago that the housing bubble would burst. It seems odd that the worlds best trends predicter didn't. I knew that in Southern California and South Florida 1000 sq foot houses were selling for $2,000,000 on interest only mortgages. You don't have to be Nostrodamus to see the end of that trend.

Subject: RE: BS: Trends Research Institute - for real?
From: Jack the Sailor
Date: 13 Jan 10 - 05:32 PM

Seeing the long term trends is pretty easy. Making money off a vague prediction is nearly impossible.

In 2004, he claims that a "Great Recession" would begin in 2007.

In actuality, a recession began in the third quarter of 2008.

I would say to your friend, "If that is the kind of information you can profit from, then invest in Celente."

Subject: RE: BS: Trends Research Institute - for real?
From: Lighter
Date: 13 Jan 10 - 06:06 PM

About a year ago Celente's dire predictions were mentioned on Fox News. One of the anchors dismissed him curtly as "just some trend analyst." In other words, he had no special credibility.

Not long after he was being touted by the same Fox News as "the only analyst who accurately predicted the fall of the Soviet Union."

For all I know he was. But more to the point: what's his batting average? How many other successful (and supposedly unexpected) prophecies like the fall of the Soviet Union has he made in the last twenty years?

Some folks may recall the late Jean Dixon. She didn't use socioeconomic charts, just the stars and her prophetic gifts. Years after the events she became famous for having "predicted the assassination of JFK." What she said in 1956, however, was that whoever was elected in 1960 (she didn't name names) would somehow die in office.

During the actual 1960 election, she prophesied that Richard Nixon would win. As Dixon rose to media fame, other predictions, for example that nuclear World War III would start in 1958, were ignored. Only her very rare hits "counted."

Point: with enough rooting, even a blind hog can find an occasional truffle. We need to know a lot more about Celente's track record before we can credit him with astonishing and terrifying success. It would also be good to know what the most learned economists,   sociologists, big-time investors (like Warren Buffett), and so on think about his record and his most (shall I say "appealing"?) predictions.

If Celente is as confident in his predictions as some of his fans are, has he shared his methods and insights with the Administration in a desperate attempt to the save the nation? That would be the ethical patriotic thing to do. How about with the Republican National Committee? If he's such a crackerjack, they should embrace his findings and urge them on the President officially. I think they would have already - if he were as good as he says.