BS: 58% say Obama will win

Subject: BS: 58% say Obama will win...
From: Bee-dubya-ell
Date: 30 Aug 12 - 10:44 PM

...but only 47% say they're going to vote for him.

I heard this interesting anomaly on "Marketplace" on public radio today. The host was talking with someone from Gallup Polls. Romney and Obama are pretty much dead even in presidential preference polls at 47% each. But when asked who they think will actually win the election (not who they're planning on voting for), 58% said Obama while only 36% said Romney. I take that to mean almost 25% of people who plan on voting for Romney feel like they're backing a loser. What gives?

Subject: RE: BS: 58% say Obama will win...
From: Beer
Date: 30 Aug 12 - 10:58 PM

Wayyyyy to early for this to be of any value. But still interesting.

ad.

Subject: RE: BS: 58% say Obama will win...
From: Richard Bridge
Date: 31 Aug 12 - 04:26 AM

Pray. And God save America.

I don't really do this religion stuff - but most of you do.

Subject: RE: BS: 58% say Obama will win...
From: Henry Krinkle
Date: 31 Aug 12 - 04:39 AM

I've never understood presidential elections. The pop vote doesn't count. The electoral college frat boys pick the prez. So what difference does it make which one you vote for?
I'd like to see the pop vote count.
(:-( ))=

Subject: RE: BS: 58% say Obama will win...
From: Richard Bridge
Date: 31 Aug 12 - 07:04 AM

No, Winkle. The colleges pick the candidates.

Subject: RE: BS: 58% say Obama will win...
From: Henry Krinkle
Date: 31 Aug 12 - 07:13 AM

Bush didn't win the pop vote. But he was prez. 8 sorry ass years.
You don't know what you're babbling about.
(:-( P)=

Subject: RE: BS: 58% say Obama will win...
From: GUEST,CS
Date: 31 Aug 12 - 07:25 AM

I must confess, being a member of 'the rest of the world' and thus being more concerned with the US's foreign policies (wars) than it's domestic ones, I was rather hoping on that 'bring the troops home' Ron Paul fella. I really don't want an Israeli/US backed invasion of Iran to happen right now. And Obama is Aipacs bitch:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/mar/04/obama-aipac-speech-read-text

"Iran's leaders should have no doubt about the resolve of the United States just as they should not doubt Israel's sovereign right to make its own decisions about what is required to meet its security needs.
I have said that when it comes to preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon, I will take no options off the table, and I mean what I say. ... and, yes, a military effort to be prepared for any contingency. ...
I have a policy to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon. And as I have made clear time and again during the course of my presidency, I will not hesitate to use force when it is necessary to defend the United States and its interests."

Subject: RE: BS: 58% say Obama will win...
From: Henry Krinkle
Date: 31 Aug 12 - 07:28 AM

He's such a puppet.
(:-( ))=

Subject: RE: BS: 58% say Obama will win...
From: Bobert
Date: 31 Aug 12 - 09:32 AM

All depends on the courts (think 2000 here)... If the Republican voter suppression laws are struck down, as Texea's was this week, then Obama wins... If not, it's too close to call...

B~

Subject: RE: BS: 58% say Obama will win...
From: Amos
Date: 31 Aug 12 - 09:39 AM

My sense is we are going to see a ninth-inning shift as people realize shit could get real; Obama will slide into home plate about 1.23 seconds before the throw from center field. Say 57 to 43 or thereabouts...

Subject: RE: BS: 58% say Obama will win...
From: GUEST,999
Date: 31 Aug 12 - 10:27 AM

"Subject: RE: BS: 58% say Obama will win...
From: Richard Bridge
Date: 31 Aug 12 - 07:04 AM

No, Winkle. The colleges pick the candidates."


Hi, Richard. You have a common misunderstanding as to the electoral college, what it is and what it does, and I would hasten to add so are most of the electorate. This link explains simply and quickly. Trust you are keeping well and out of trouble.


http://www.thisnation.com/question/051.html

Subject: RE: BS: 58% say Obama will win...
From: GUEST,999
Date: 31 Aug 12 - 10:30 AM

"misunderstanding as to the electoral college, what it is and what it does, and I would hasten to add so are most of the electorate."

I phrased that very badly. Read ". . . and so are most of the electorate under that same misunderstanding."

Subject: RE: BS: 58% say Obama will win...
From: Alice
Date: 31 Aug 12 - 10:38 AM

The statistician I read is Nate Silver, who was brilliant in 2008 making sense of all the polls and election forecasting.

The electoral college doesn't pick the candidates. Primary elections in the states choose the candidates. The convention just confirmed that Republicans have Romney, but the Ron Paul supporters were there protesting that. Electors are pledged, but not bound, to vote for the candidate their party has chosen.

Nate Silver statistical forecast
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/author/nate-silver/

Definition of electoral college
http://legal-dictionary.thefreedictionary.com/Electoral+College

Subject: RE: BS: 58% say Obama will win...
From: Henry Krinkle
Date: 31 Aug 12 - 10:49 AM

I told you so.
(:-( P)=

Subject: RE: BS: 58% say Obama will win...
From: Little Hawk
Date: 31 Aug 12 - 10:51 AM

Perhaps it is usually the case that people think an incumbent (the devil they know) is more likely to win than a new guy (the devil they don't know), simply because they're already accustomed to the first guy.

Incumbents are said to have considerable financial advantage over challengers. Being at the top of the power structure, they are better placed to finance a 2nd kick at the can, whereas a challenger doesn't have the existing power structure to help him raise money.

Whether the above is true, I don't know. I'm just mentioning it so that the rest of you can...

1. happily accept it
2. scornfully reject it
3. and fight about it

(Heh!)

Subject: RE: BS: 58% say Obama will win...
From: Q (Frank Staplin)
Date: 31 Aug 12 - 02:25 PM

I hope Obama wins; the Republican members (and candidates) include too many kooks and narrow interest idividuals.

I would support a conservative candidate, but Romney will not be able to stand up against a Congressional majority that seems likely to gut government watchdog agencies and health care.

Obama could at least hold the fort until more of the small-town-rural population recover their senses.

Neither party seems likely to control Congress, so four more years of nothing while the coming robotic takeover of industry will throw millions more out of work.

Subject: RE: BS: 58% say Obama will win...
From: Bobert
Date: 31 Aug 12 - 02:39 PM

The "financial advantage" went out the window with the Republican Supreme Clowns decision in "Citizen's United"... The Koch brothers and their buddies are willing to spend as much as it takes to get Obama defeated... The price tag for this presidential election will more than likely eclipse the the total of all presidential elections since George Washington combined...

B~

Subject: RE: BS: 58% say Obama will win...
From: Sawzaw
Date: 31 Aug 12 - 04:43 PM

And Obama's addition to the deficit eclipse the the total of all presidents including George Washington.

Subject: RE: BS: 58% say Obama will win...
From: Q (Frank Staplin)
Date: 31 Aug 12 - 05:19 PM

Ho hum, more deficit lies.
See "Romney wrong on deficits, Auto Bailout
The deficit was already running at $1.2 trillion when Obama took office and grew to more tham $1.4 trillion. In other words, Obama got an elephant from the previous administration, that Congress continued to do nothing about.
http://www.factcheck.org/2011/06/romney-wrong-on-deficits-auto-bailout/

In 2012, the deficit was $1.3 trillion, and for 2013, will be $1.1 trillion. In other words, it is shrinking a little.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-08-22/u-s-budget-deficit-to-reach-1-1-trillion-this-year-cbo-says.html

Subject: RE: BS: 58% say Obama will win...
From: Q (Frank Staplin)
Date: 31 Aug 12 - 05:38 PM

Cost of Iraq War- $3 trillion. www.washingtonpost.com, 5 Sept 2010. And costs continue.
Plus Afghanistan and other sinkholes in the middle east.