BS: 2 degree rise=200 million refugees

Subject: BS: 2 degree rise=200 million refugees
From: Donuel
Date: 07 Mar 19 - 09:34 PM

A 2 degree rise on Earth sounds small but it isn't. If you consider a 3 or 4 degree rise no one is safe from a cataclysmic catastrophic event no matter how wealthy they are.

At a 2 degree rise there will be 200 million refugees escaping lethally hot cities. Where will they go? Can Canada take half of them? Will coastlines be lined with machine guns to greet refugees in your nation?

How soon will we have an uninhabitable Earth

Subject: RE: BS: 2 degree rise=200 million refugees
From: bobad
Date: 08 Mar 19 - 08:25 AM

In Canada 90% of the population live within 100 miles of the US border. The 2 degrees warming would make more of the land suitable for agriculture. Half of 200 million might be pushing it but there would certainly be room for a good portion of that number.

Subject: RE: BS: 2 degree rise=200 million refugees
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 08 Mar 19 - 02:31 PM

I don't know about lethally-hot cities, but I think it's more likely that a massive refugee crisis would be triggered by droughts and by inundation of low-lying coastal areas. Most of Bangladesh, with over 150,000,000 people, lies below 12 metres above sea level and much of the country lies well below that level. I wonder if anyone cares.

Subject: RE: BS: 2 degree rise=200 million refugees
From: Nigel Parsons
Date: 08 Mar 19 - 08:03 PM

What temperature rise would be required to raise sea levels by 12 metres?

Subject: RE: BS: 2 degree rise=200 million refugees
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 08 Mar 19 - 08:23 PM

Read my post again, please. One more point. Suppose sea levels rose by, say, eight metres. How anxious would you be to stick around?

Subject: RE: BS: 2 degree rise=200 million refugees
From: Nigel Parsons
Date: 08 Mar 19 - 08:28 PM

I read your post already. You were talking about inundation of a country where most of the land lies less than 12m above sea level.
As that was the level you were discussing I asked what rise in temperature would cause a problem for most of that country.

I could just as easily say that a mean rise in sea level of 100m would flood most of the UK, but I would not do so unless I could describe a possible cause of such a rise.

Subject: RE: BS: 2 degree rise=200 million refugees
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 08 Mar 19 - 08:39 PM

Idiot.

Subject: RE: BS: 2 degree rise=200 million refugees
From: Nigel Parsons
Date: 08 Mar 19 - 08:42 PM

If you cannot support your own comments, please do not respond with insults.

Subject: RE: BS: 2 degree rise=200 million refugees
From: robomatic
Date: 08 Mar 19 - 11:25 PM

This Never Gets Old (But I hope someday it does)

"Humans can't breathe underwater."

Subject: RE: BS: 2 degree rise=200 million refugees
From: BobL
Date: 09 Mar 19 - 03:06 AM

The effect on sea levels of a given temperature rise (or, conversely, the temperature increase needed to produce a given rise in sea levels) has a large element of guesswork about it, mainly because we aren't entirely sure what's going to happen to the Antarctic ice. It may slowly melt, or big chunks of it calve off, or huge glaciers detach from the rock and slide downhill into the sea. What is certain is that by the time we do know, it will be a bit late to do anything about it.

And not wishing to seem unconcerned, but at least I won't be around to see.

Subject: RE: BS: 2 degree rise=200 million refugees
From: Iains
Date: 09 Mar 19 - 04:36 AM

Projections suggest a 2°C temp.increase will raise sea levels 56cm by 2100. The greatest component of this is simply thermal expansion More significant is a projected 34% decrease in the Atlantic meridional overturning system.

It helps to define the units. 1 °C = 1.8 °F
If you cannot define the units further discussion is pointless.

Subject: RE: BS: 2 degree rise=200 million refugees
From: Mr Red
Date: 09 Mar 19 - 05:19 AM

lies below 12 metres above sea level and much of the country lies well below that level. I wonder if anyone cares.

New York has been inundated in a storm surge. Do they care?

And

What temperature rise would be required to raise sea levels by 12 metres? see above and cogitate on the fact that it has been observed that more rain is falling in Greenland than previously. Water lubricates the glaciers and they have been observed moving more quickly.

Greenland ice has been cited as the key mover on sea level rise, which by albedo and diminishing white stuff adds to the acceleration of warming. Then there is Antarctica.

Learn to swim!

Subject: RE: BS: 2 degree rise=200 million refugees
From: Donuel
Date: 09 Mar 19 - 08:01 AM

3 lakes have disappeared in new South Wales in the last 3 years due to drought and higher temps.
Time and Temperature rise equals a rise in average sea level rise. At first storm surges will arise followed by consistent higher levels. One must remember that for every 50 centimeter rise the land will lose up to a hundred meters of shore.

Denial in any form is idiotic unless you recently bought BP stock, then you face a tidy profit in 5 years.


I do not understand how archeological evidence points to a 2,000 foot sea rise in a few locations. But I can guess multiple factors were at play.

Subject: RE: BS: 2 degree rise=200 million refugees
From: punkfolkrocker
Date: 09 Mar 19 - 10:55 AM

So how long before our house is buggered...???
Is it worth getting the leak in the roof around the chimney fixed,
when it might eventually be under water anyway...?????

The Scrumpyshire hills used to be tiny islands...

Better build a coracle...

Subject: RE: BS: 2 degree rise=200 million refugees
From: Stanron
Date: 09 Mar 19 - 11:20 AM

Donuel wrote: I do not understand how archeological evidence points to a 2,000 foot sea rise in a few locations.

Under the weight of kilometers of thickness of ice, land mass sank. In a kind of pivot movement, land near the glaciation rose. When the Ice melted, the sunken land mass slowly rose and the risen land mass began to sink. Scotland is still rising while Southern England is sinking. There are areas in Norway that have 'beaches' thousands of feet above current sea level.

Subject: RE: BS: 2 degree rise=200 million refugees
From: Mr Red
Date: 09 Mar 19 - 11:45 AM

NZ & Norway will fair better than most cuntries because of the steepness of their shoreline. Except their cities were built on flat lands near the sea. And I have seen reports that as the Earth and its crust warms, the rock will bend more, just a little. Seismic activity is notoriously difficult to predict, but averages can be counted in retrospect, and they have.

Now with food yields in warmer climates reducing and less land on which to grow and a burgeoning population - you do the math(s).

Subject: RE: BS: 2 degree rise=200 million refugees
From: Ebbie
Date: 09 Mar 19 - 09:57 PM

To point out the obvious, a sea rise would not be the only problem. A great many other problems would surround the host, beginning with potable, sweet water.

Subject: RE: BS: 2 degree rise=200 million refugees
From: Donuel
Date: 09 Mar 19 - 10:23 PM

Exactly.
The obvious is only the first place we look. Since we are not omniscient the unanticipated, we can assume, is always at play.

Subject: RE: BS: 2 degree rise=200 million refugees
From: DMcG
Date: 10 Mar 19 - 03:06 AM

I was at a talk by Chris Packham last night. The first half was primarily on photography and the second on environmentalism and associated issues. He made the point that up to about 1.5C we have fairly reliable models of what will happen. Not perfect, of course, but with a good level of confidence. For 2C we don't - the whole thing goes beyond what we can predict and 'the unanticipated' rules supreme.

Subject: RE: BS: 2 degree rise=200 million refugees
From: DMcG
Date: 10 Mar 19 - 03:08 AM

For the avoidance of doubt, we can still predict "it will be very bad indeed."