BS: what odds will you give me? Recession

Subject: BS: what odds will you give me?
From: Mr Red
Date: 15 Aug 19 - 02:38 PM

in there being a recession looming..........

In the UK average house prices v average wages now at 5 times, just like 2007.
London house prices falling.
Wall Street betting on short term gains rather than longer term.
Chinese economy slowing.

And I didn't even mention the B word! Or the T word!

What odds will you give me?

Subject: RE: BS: what odds will you give me? Recession
From: JHW
Date: 16 Aug 19 - 05:14 AM

I don't bet - Not even on stock exchanges.
The house prices is a mystery. When I bought my/our first house you could only borrow 3.5 times your annual earnings. So then no-one could have bought a 5 times earnings house if they had to borrow it's cost.

Subject: RE: BS: what odds will you give me? Recession
From: leeneia
Date: 16 Aug 19 - 11:58 AM

I am not optimistic.

Now is a good time to start saving money.

Subject: RE: BS: what odds will you give me? Recession
From: Mrrzy
Date: 16 Aug 19 - 01:06 PM

Saving how... Under a mattress?

Subject: RE: BS: what odds will you give me? Recession
From: Raggytash
Date: 16 Aug 19 - 01:07 PM

Au contraire.

If you put money in the bank the interest rate will be lower than inflation so you'll lose money.

Subject: RE: BS: what odds will you give me? Recession
From: gillymor
Date: 16 Aug 19 - 01:14 PM

I moved all my stuff into money market and other low risk funds at the beginning of the year because I didn't want to have any part in getting president jackass reelected due to a strong economy. The indicators are that recession is on the way and it couldn't come at a better time AFAIC. Periodic market corrections are inevitable and it will be tough on a lot of folks but 4 more years of that orange d-bag could be fatal.

Subject: RE: BS: what odds will you give me? Recession
From: Joe Offer
Date: 16 Aug 19 - 01:15 PM

I think it's inevitable. But hey, maybe it will help Trump lose the next election.
Joe

Subject: RE: BS: what odds will you give me? Recession
From: Big Al Whittle
Date: 16 Aug 19 - 01:43 PM

Well never mind us betting!

Boris Johnson says one thing. Mark Carney says another. Obviously one is SO completely wong that they should take responsibility for what is coming out of their gob.

If they are proved wrong they are obviously getting paid for a job they should never have been appointed to.

The enormous salaries, benefits, bonuses, etc should be repayable.

Subject: RE: BS: what odds will you give me? Recession
From: Iains
Date: 16 Aug 19 - 03:15 PM

The UK economy does not operate in avoid. When many other countries are
showing contraction or likely contraction, the UK does not escape unscathed. Spinning out brexit for three years dies nothing to help either. The trade spat between China and the US impacts not just those two economies but also all their trading partners.
It looks like a recession is on the cards

Subject: RE: BS: what odds will you give me? Recession
From: John P
Date: 16 Aug 19 - 03:26 PM

Of course we're going to have a recession. The Republicans are in charge in the US, and every time that happens we have a recession. They deregulate the business dealings of anti-social, greedy assholes, and everything falls apart. Then a Democrat gets elected, reins in the Wall Street thieves, pulls the economy out of the toilet, and the cycle starts again.

We should have a class-action law suit against the Republican party and all of their donors. They are actively stealing money from the rest of us. The bad news for me is that I'm about two years from retirement, and they are going to trash my retirement savings again before we can get rid of them. This time I won't have time to recover.

Wouldn't it be fun to sue people who give money to the Republican crooks? They know what they are doing, and they know what the results will be. They are trashing our economy on purpose. They will get their short-term gains of billions while the rest of us starve.

Subject: RE: BS: what odds will you give me? Recession
From: Mr Red
Date: 17 Aug 19 - 04:14 AM

If you are looking for money to match inflation, find something that never goes out of fashion.

1) Stuff you would use anyway.

When Britain had inflation up in the teens I used to go to warehouses and buy in bulk. Things like washing powder etc. Food items are less likely to yield savings because of shelf life, and it needs diligence in rotating stock to consume the oldest first. And at the end of the day all you are doing is nibbling chunks out of a rising curve. Catching bargains is time consuming but profitable. But store the booty carefully, accidents with water (eg) can be expensive.

2) Gold for really long term investment. It has fashions though.

3) property. Not the sort to rent, the house you live in. It needs maintenance but ya gotta live somewhere. If you buy cannily and do renovations yourself, you are paying yourself at low wages, but hey - it can be a hobby (and speculation).

Personally I have a small amount with our local Coop (National UK organisation). The bond would yield 3.5% over 4 years, but it is speculation, not a protected deposit. The organisation is socially aware.

Subject: RE: BS: what odds will you give me? Recession
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 17 Aug 19 - 09:01 AM

"The UK economy does not operate in avoid. "
Not trueNonsense
It AVOIDS its responsibility to those it is supposed to represent constantly
Jim Carroll

Subject: RE: BS: what odds will you give me? Recession
From: Raggytash
Date: 17 Aug 19 - 11:19 AM

Sadly Jim you are mistaken and on this occasion Iains is correct to say that the UK economy does not act on a void. Events around the world have a direct impact on the economy of the UK.

The fact that some, already very wealthy, people will make a profit is not in doubt or that the rest of us will suffer the consequences when the recession hits.

Subject: RE: BS: what odds will you give me? Recession
From: Iains
Date: 17 Aug 19 - 11:50 AM

Thank you Raggytash. I would have struggled to make a tactful response

Subject: RE: BS: what odds will you give me? Recession
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 17 Aug 19 - 02:48 PM

"Sadly Jim you are mistaken and on this occasion Iains is correct to say that the UK economy does not act on a void. "
I didn't expect him to get the pun Rag, but I'm surprised you didn't
Read what I accurately quoted him saying
God - I'm wasted on you fellers !
Jim

Subject: RE: BS: what odds will you give me? Recession
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 17 Aug 19 - 03:27 PM

By the way Rag
I'm perfectly aware that the economy does not act in a vacuum
The fact that it doesn't makes the claim of these Brexit clowns that we can't tell what's going to happen till it happens - with Brexit or anything, so ***** ludicrous
A responsible economy needs to assess what might happen and plan on the basis of that judgement
This leap over the cliff does not allow for that - the three blind mice had a better idea of where they were hrading
Jim

Subject: RE: BS: what odds will you give me? Recession
From: Iains
Date: 17 Aug 19 - 03:35 PM

I watched a riveting Goon show today.

Subject: RE: BS: what odds will you give me? Recession
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 17 Aug 19 - 04:10 PM

I’m watching one right now.

Subject: RE: BS: what odds will you give me? Recession
From: meself
Date: 17 Aug 19 - 05:12 PM

No backtracking from those who missed Jim's pun? Agree or not, it was kinda clever.

Subject: RE: BS: what odds will you give me? Recession
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 18 Aug 19 - 03:48 AM

"I’m watching one right now."
Remember the warning
Jim

Subject: RE: BS: what odds will you give me? Recession
From: Raggytash
Date: 18 Aug 19 - 05:05 AM

I have castigated Nigel often enough for being a pedant about minor errors by posters on my side of the debate.

I hope I am honest enough to do the same with people on my side when they pick up a what was a small typo and we all knew what Iains was meaning.

Now just think, here's me defending Iains. Make of that what you will, and I can guess that some of you are already leaping to the wrong conclusion.

So please have a think before you attack me.

Subject: RE: BS: what odds will you give me? Recession
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 18 Aug 19 - 05:11 AM

If we can't make jokes about people/things we find amusing we might as well stay at home and watch 'Fleabag'
Sometimes humour is the best way of dealing with some people
Jim

Subject: RE: BS: what odds will you give me? Recession
From: Raggytash
Date: 18 Aug 19 - 05:21 AM

For some reason Jim I don't associate you and a sense of humour at any time.

Subject: RE: BS: what odds will you give me? Recession
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 18 Aug 19 - 05:35 AM

"For some reason Jim I don't associate you and a sense of humour at any time."
Then you've not been looking Rag
You should look up my contributions to the joke threads something
A sense of humour has become essential with dealing with some people - here and elsewhere - much better than telling them what you really think o them
As for typos - I hate people using them, I regard the as a sign that those who do use them to cover the fact that they are stymied for an intelligent answer
I only use them on people who resort to them regularly
Suggest we end this before someone closes the thread
Jim

Subject: RE: BS: what odds will you give me? Recession
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 18 Aug 19 - 05:46 AM

”For some reason Jim I don't associate you and a sense of humour at any time.”

It’s a problem with Internet forums etc. that we get an impression of poster’s personalities that aren’t necessarily a true reflection of their real-world personae.

For instance, on another thread, a guy I know fairly well in the real world has been excoriated for his apparent antipathy towards traditional song and performers of traditional material. In fact, he is one of the few performers I see nowadays performing traditional songs regularly and from memory, not only in folk-venues, but also elsewhere - e.g. in the dreaded ‘Open-Mics’ alongside young people singing pop songs using their smart-phones to read the lyrics. He is also a very personable, likeable, popular guy - pretty much the opposite of the impression he gives here.

I recall someone - I think it was Kevin McGrath - telling me in a PM that he had met Keefy of Hertford some time before he passed away, and that he was actually a very nice, quiet sort of chap, completely different in real life than his Mudcat persona would suggest.

I think sometimes we need to remember that people may not be all that they appear to be here.

Apologies for the thread-drift - back to the upcoming Recession...

Subject: RE: BS: what odds will you give me? Recession
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 18 Aug 19 - 05:56 AM

Raggytash could tell you that I'm a scruffy, unkempt, overweight, shorts-wearing, besandalled old fool. To some extent I suppose we all invent something about ourselves in these online forums. After all, we can spout but we can't be seen. I just enjoy life trying to work out who the real me is.

Subject: RE: BS: what odds will you give me? Recession
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 18 Aug 19 - 06:11 AM

Steve, you described me perfectly there! And I wear walking trainers instead of sandals. Otherwise, spot on! ;-)

Subject: RE: BS: what odds will you give me? Recession
From: gillymor
Date: 18 Aug 19 - 06:14 AM

Check out Jim's contributions to the joke threads.

Subject: RE: BS: what odds will you give me? Recession
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 18 Aug 19 - 06:21 AM

Sorry to interrupt lads
Terrifying report from this Mornings Sunday Times has just dented my sense of humour severely
Suggest people should look into the Brexit thread
Jim

Subject: RE: BS: what odds will you give me? Recession
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 18 Aug 19 - 06:52 AM

By the way, I rather value my sense of humour - I wouldn't be able to visit my family in Liverpool if I was unable to make the border guards laugh
Jim

Subject: RE: BS: what odds will you give me? Recession
From: Raggytash
Date: 18 Aug 19 - 07:40 AM

"Suggest we end this before someone closes the thread
Jim"

Do you remember posting this less than two hours ago!

Subject: RE: BS: what odds will you give me? Recession
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 18 Aug 19 - 08:12 AM

Put it down to my sense of humoutr rag
Jim

Subject: RE: BS: what odds will you give me? Recession
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 18 Aug 19 - 08:48 AM

The economy is in such a bad state that my bank has just posted me a pre-declined credit card...

Subject: RE: BS: what odds will you give me? Recession
From: Iains
Date: 18 Aug 19 - 09:24 AM

On Friday, Steven Barclay has “signed the legislation setting in stone the repeal of the European Communities Act 1972. This is a landmark moment in taking back control of our law. It underlines that we are leaving the EU on October 31”.

Whoopy Doo!!!!!

Subject: RE: BS: what odds will you give me? Recession
From: Big Al Whittle
Date: 18 Aug 19 - 02:11 PM

don't think we will.

Subject: RE: BS: what odds will you give me? Recession
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 18 Aug 19 - 02:27 PM

"don't think we will."
I sincerely hole not Al - for all our sakes
What is being described in the leaked document is a recession - the Government has now been forced to recognise that fact
It is only the little minded Little Englanders who are now pushing this through, not only those going along with them believe it should happen and say they will vote down a no-deal
The only question is whether Boris the Brainless will allow them to
Jim

Subject: RE: BS: what odds will you give me? Recession
From: Iains
Date: 18 Aug 19 - 03:05 PM

The UK economy is still growing whereas Germany is contracting. Growth in the eurozone for the last quarter was 0.2%. FACT.

Could the remainers not offer facts just once in a while,instead of conjecture and project fear?

I suppose as you resoundingly lost the referendum facts to support your puerile arguments are as rare as rocking horse shit. No doubt that is why the postings are getting increasingly hysterical.
In case you have forgotten leave won the referendum. Failure to follow through is a clear failure of democracy! FACT.

Another Fact:
Brexit supporter Meirion John Thomas said: ‘A tag-wearing convicted criminal Fiona Onasanya helped a bill designed to frustrate the will of 17.4 million people to pass through the Commons by just a single vote. ‘British politics truly is a complete and utter cesspit.’
Martin Daubney said: ‘A jailbird, wearing an ankle tag, voted against a No Deal Brexit, which lost by one vote. Her vote.’ He added: ‘A criminal just stopped Brexit.’
It has yet to be clarified if she broke the terms of her curfew by participating in the vote.

Subject: RE: BS: what odds will you give me? Recession
From: BobL
Date: 19 Aug 19 - 02:37 AM

"resoundingly lost the referendum "

52% vs 48% is hardly "resounding". Unless you're referring to the empty-barrel effect.

Subject: RE: BS: what odds will you give me? Recession
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 19 Aug 19 - 03:12 AM

"52% vs 48% is hardly "resounding".
And hardly important when you consider it represents a somewhat insignificant percentage of the British People as a whole
It is reasonable to believe that many who didn't vote, didn't do so because they believed that this crass move didn't have a chance of succeeding - even the Brexiteers were stunned at their good luck
The Brexiteers are fully aware that they would almost certainly swept aside in a democratic second vote - especially now Johnson's Circus has produced a devastating estimate of what is likely to happen - food shortages, medicine shortages - price rises - crippling delays at the ports.... I very much if many turkeys would vote of Christmas after that list of horrors (they are not even prepared to discuss it here
THere would rather hide behind a vote from people they have shown they otherwise despise (as "The Enemy Within" when they ask for employment security)

It would take a major study to estimate how long and how extensive the effects this report would last, yet, within hours of its appearance Gove was claiming they are "sort term" - a supindly transparent lie for the cameras
They whinge that the report has only been leaked to stop Brexit - OF COURSE IT HAS - IF THESE ARE THE CONSEQUENCES THE PEOPLE NEED TO KNOW AND BREXIT NEEDS TO BE NIPPED IN THE BUD BEFORE IT SENDS BRITAIN TO CAREY STREET
Jim Carroll

Subject: RE: BS: what odds will you give me? Recession
From: Iains
Date: 19 Aug 19 - 03:24 AM

It only requires a a majority of one for a motion to be carried.
In the case of the Brexit referendum the majority vote was 1,269,501.
As I stated a resounding majority. Time remainiacs ceased their perpetual whining. It is getting rather wearing for the majority of us.

Subject: RE: BS: what odds will you give me? Recession
From: Stanron
Date: 19 Aug 19 - 03:45 AM

Calling a victory resounding is not commenting on the size of the majority. Resounding refers to the amount it is commentated on, talked about or reported. Look it up;

https://www.thefreedictionary.com/resounding

Subject: RE: BS: what odds will you give me? Recession
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 19 Aug 19 - 04:10 AM

"Resounding refers to the amount it is commentated on, talked about or reported. "
Of course it doesn't - it was the among the most important decisions ever given to the British people and not to comment on it should have been a hanging offence whatever the result
It was no indication of its merits as a victory - it was what it was, a razor slim percentage majority of those who voted - in fact, a minority of the people as a whole
Trumping it as 'the will of the British people" is agenda driven bullshit
Any comments on how "victorious" it really is for the British people now your Government have assesed the apalling consequences ?
Jim Carroll

Subject: RE: BS: what odds will you give me? Recession
From: Iains
Date: 19 Aug 19 - 04:18 AM

resounding
    unmistakable; emphatic.
    "the evening was a resounding success"
    synonyms:        enormous, huge, massive, very great, tremendous, terrific, colossal; emphatic, decisive, conclusive, striking, impressive, outstanding, unmistakable, notable, noteworthy, memorable, remarkable, phenomenal, monumental;
    informal whopping, thumping, fantastic; ginormous

Everybody happy now?

Subject: RE: BS: what odds will you give me? Recession
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 19 Aug 19 - 04:46 AM

Johnson has blown his top, accusing Ministers of betrayal for leaking the report
Our prime minister apparently believes the British people, whose vote is so important, haven't got the right to now the possible consequences of what was scraped through at the referendum
Priceless !!!
Jim Carroll

Subject: RE: BS: what odds will you give me? Recession
From: Big Al Whittle
Date: 19 Aug 19 - 05:23 AM

Would remainers respect the results of a second referendum. Or more importantly would the MP's representing us?

I think this is why your predictions are wrong Iains.

The referendum was a crap idea. Brexit has too many powerful enemies for it to come to pass....The Bank of England, every snotty snidey middle class alternative comedian, , the new Labour gang (never mind their northern constituencies), many Tory MP's, the Liberal Democrats, the Irish who see the EU as as possible way of fudging Irish independence......

my feeling is that Brexit won't happen under any circumstances

Subject: RE: BS: what odds will you give me? Recession
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 19 Aug 19 - 05:44 AM

I sincerely hope you’re right Al, but I fear that the tiny cadre of immensely wealthy people who have driven and controlled the project since the outset, and who are pulling the Blond Buffoon-Puppet’s strings now, have their own interest at heart and will ensure it happens - as the aforementioned Blond Buffoon-Puppet said recently, “At all costs”.

Brexit is solely for the benefit of a few immensely-rich people, who managed to con 17 million suckers with nationalistic, xenophobic horse-shit about ‘sovereignty’ and ‘Take Back Control’. Sadly, the Blond Buffoon-Puppets ‘All Costs’ will hit those who can least afford to pay, including everyone on this thread, whilst the Big Fat Immensely-Rich Controllers get even more immensely rich.

I’m astonished that supposedly-intelligent ‘ordinary’ people can’t see what’s been right in front of their eyes ever since the whole farcical Brexit debacle began three years ago.

Time they were told to fuck off in no uncertain terms, before they ruin us all.

Subject: RE: BS: what odds will you give me? Recession
From: Iains
Date: 19 Aug 19 - 06:32 AM

Big Al
The government produced a leaflet prior to the referendum. Amongst other things it said: "This is your decision. The government will implement whatever you decide."
A summary outcome below:
EU Referendum Results 2016
                By Votes
17.4 million leave 16.4 million Remain
                By constituency
406 Leave          242 Remain
               Constituency by Party
Labour 148 Leave    84 Remain
Tory   247 Leave    80 Remain
                By Region
       9 Leave      3 Remain
                   By MP
160 Leave          486 Remain

Brexit is not the problem. MPs are !!!!

The next election will be a time of settling of old scores. Bring it on!

Subject: RE: BS: what odds will you give me? Recession
From: Iains
Date: 19 Aug 19 - 06:50 AM

and to nip the whittering in the bud:

https://fullfact.org/europe/did-majority-conservative-and-labour-constituencies-vote-leave-eu-referendum/

Subject: RE: BS: what odds will you give me? Recession
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 19 Aug 19 - 07:44 AM

All this is meaningless
The tories have now all but admitted that Britain will enter a recession if Britain leaves Europe
Game over
Jim Carroll

Subject: RE: BS: what odds will you give me? Recession
From: Big Al Whittle
Date: 19 Aug 19 - 08:22 AM

Well we've all got our opinions. I can't really see any of us changing our minds. For many people the recession started 40 years ago when we joined. Since then they've lived off the largesse of their luckier contemporaries.

However I think you're whistling in the dark Iains. The governing classes don't want it. And by and large - they get their way.

Meanwhile supporting Brexit is abit like suggesting Jimmy Saville shouldn't have a show on the World Service every night. So if I were you Iains, have you thought about playing the banjo? It would boost your popularity no end.