BS: Fall of Damascus; Syria & Mideast

Subject: BS: Fall of Damascus; Syria & Mideast
From: robomatic
Date: 08 Dec 24 - 08:23 AM

Damascus and Syria
Damascus is falling as I write this, listening to the BBC World Service. They are interviewing various residents and correspondents, but it appears that jihadi type forces have successfully rallied in the past two weeks and taken the cities of Aleppo, Hama, and now, apparently, the erstwhile dictator of Syria, Assad, has departed the city. This follows 50 years of rule, backed by post-Soviet Russia and supported by Hezbollah, which implies Tehran as well.
The unknowns far outnumber the knowns for me, and I'm not aware of experts in the Mudcat domain, but this has definite repercussions to other threads we've been contributing to, especially Ukraine and Israeli involved.

Subject: RE: BS: Fall of Damascus; Syria & Mideast
From: Stilly River Sage
Date: 08 Dec 24 - 11:04 AM

Prisoners were being released as rebels moved into the Aleppo and Hama area, before Assad left. I read this in The Guardian yesterday:
‘He has come out an old man’: joy and grief as loved ones released from Assad prisons
Family members describe renewed hopes after decades-long searches for political detainees in ‘Kingdom of Silence’

Moammar Ali has been searching for his older brother for 39 years.

In 1986, Syrian soldiers arrested the university student Ali Hassan al-Ali, then 18, at a checkpoint in north Lebanon. Moammar has not heard from him since.

He spent the next three decades visiting different security branches in Syria, where he would receive conflicting information on the whereabouts of his brother.

“There was no place in Syria we didn’t visit. We went around the whole country asking what happened to him. One day they would admit they had him in prison, the next day they would deny it,” Ali, a resident of Akkar, north Lebanon, said. . . .Until Thursday night, when Ali’s phone started to buzz. Friends, relatives and family members began sending him the same picture: a bedraggled man in his late 50s, standing dazed in front of the Hama central prison in north Syria.

“They said he resembled me. I told them: ‘this is my brother!’ The feeling … it’s indescribable. Imagine that I haven’t seen him for 39 years and then all of a sudden his picture is sent to you, how would you feel?” Ali said.

His brother, who entered prison as an 18-year-old, was now 57. “He has come out of prison as an old man.”

A lot of families will be trying to retrieve their released loved ones. Families that are still alive themselves.

Subject: RE: BS: Fall of Damascus; Syria & Mideast
From: The Sandman
Date: 08 Dec 24 - 01:06 PM

That must be incredible to be released after all that time, andwonserful for his brother after all the searching, after all that time in prison the poor man will probably have become instituionalized.
the terrible things humans do to each other

Subject: RE: BS: Fall of Damascus; Syria & Mideast
From: robomatic
Date: 08 Dec 24 - 03:26 PM

Russia has reported the arrival of Assad and family. No word yet on whether he will get to reside in the same apatment block as Citizen Snowden.
The reports are that Syria is overrun by more than one martial force. The United States has a power presence in northern Syria which I know nothing about. It is concerned with the Kurds. The Turks probably have considerable quiet presence that is potentially anti-Kurd but also anti-Assad.
Some of the original rebels were mostly secular. I recall back in 2014 a group of them were anticipating having very short lives. Assad's response was to blame everyone against him as a jihadi terrorist, which led to a force of jihadi terrorists for him to blame, fight, and bomb, along with all their civilian neighbors and the destruction of historical Syrian cities such as Aleppo. Russia went along for the ride, both in official channels and in mercenary Wagner company roles.

The warrior tradition of these parts is so unorganized with traditions of being unorganized that it is dangerous to anticipate what comes next. There is a massive pause among millions of Syrian refugees at this time (December 2024).

It is not necessarily good news for the forces of Democracy, but it is certainly bad news for the forces that fight democracy.

Putin should be feeling like his personal power foundation is not quite as secure as it has been. I suppose the average Russian is unaware of the significance of what is going on, but I'll bet the average Ukrainian is quite aware.

Subject: RE: BS: Fall of Damascus; Syria & Mideast
From: Thompson
Date: 08 Dec 24 - 07:03 PM

I pray that this liberation will not turn into another tyranny, but my prayers are not expecting to be answered. I hope the women of Syria are not about to share the experience of the women of Afghanistan.
That said, it's wonderful that the wicked witch is dead.

Subject: RE: BS: Fall of Damascus; Syria & Mideast
From: robomatic
Date: 08 Dec 24 - 07:57 PM

There is reason to fear and reason to hope. I remember that Syria was a country with great history, great consciousness of its history (which applies to Iran, Iraq, and Lebanon for better or worse). Syria had a lot of ethnic diversity and one of the current concerns is the Alewites, because their Muslim faith is more 'cosmopolitan' than the Shia or Sunni, and they are the religion of the Assad family.
There used to be Jews in Syria, but in several decades of the last century a Canadian Housewife was pivotal in getting most of them out of a dangerous situation.
Meanwhile, there was a high population of secularly educated professional civilians and a highly regarded military back about thirty plus years ago. The dictator ship was ruthless. The NYTimes columnist Thomas Friedman used the term "Hama Rules" (meaning NO rule) to commemorate an action when the recnt despot's father, Hafez Assad, dealt with an Islamist revolt in the city of Hama by bombing it with his own military to the loss of tens of thousands of people, and he ADVERTISED the events as a warning.

Subject: RE: BS: Fall of Damascus; Syria & Mideast
From: Donuel
Date: 09 Dec 24 - 05:21 AM

The Assad regime has left a half million Syrians dead by his forces along with the help of Putin. I hope this will be the winter of Assad's discontent in Russia.

Subject: RE: BS: Fall of Damascus; Syria & Mideast
From: mayomick
Date: 09 Dec 24 - 08:24 AM

It’s a long time ago, but would any mudcatter by any chance remember an event that occurred in the first year of the 21st millennium -sometimes referred to as “911”?

On September 9 all those years ago , back in 2001, there was a terrible attack on the World Trade Center in New York carried out by a terrorist organization called Al Qaida in which thousands of innocent people lost their lives. Most decent-minded people felt angry and upset about the killings at the time.
I seem to remember there were even a few folk-style songs written about the tragedy.-maybe in the Mudcat database? Must check.

It would likely all seem like coincidence and ancient history while you are celebrating the fall of Damascus, I know , but just to remind you that the terrorist group that killed all those innocent people all those years ago in New York is the same group now in control of Syria .

Subject: RE: BS: Fall of Damascus; Syria & Mideast
From: DaveRo
Date: 09 Dec 24 - 09:26 AM

The group that has captured Damascus, HTS, is not actually "the same group" as Al Qaeda, though their leader was once part of ISIS, Islamic State in Syria, which is related to Al Qaeda, and both groups are clearly Islamist. More importantly, HST is currently allied to several other groups including the Syrian National Army who appear to be more nationalist than Islamist. The US appears to have been bombing ISIS to make sure they didn't get to Damascus first.

Who are the Syrian rebels who have captured Damascus

Time will tell what sort of government will emerge.

Subject: RE: BS: Fall of Damascus; Syria & Mideast
From: mayomick
Date: 09 Dec 24 - 09:26 AM

You pretty much already need the title of a song for the database search bar to show up anything - “a long long time ago” would probably just turn up the American Pie song . But Mudcat does register quite   a few songs on the subject of 911 at the link below . I found this link with a Google search “911 songs mudcat" . https://mudcat.org/thread.cfm?threadid=39028

Subject: RE: BS: Fall of Damascus; Syria & Mideast
From: The Sandman
Date: 09 Dec 24 - 11:33 AM

MAYOMICK you are misinformed

Subject: RE: BS: Fall of Damascus; Syria & Mideast
From: mayomick
Date: 09 Dec 24 - 12:19 PM

it's the search bar perhaps Sandman but the google search did show the link to 911 songs on Mudcat that I posted.
Unless you think I am misinformed about al Qaeda now ruling Syria?   If so, a list of other renamed products on wikipedia here for yourself and DaveRo - in case you get your Smarties mixed up with your M&Ms https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_renamed_products

Subject: RE: BS: Fall of Damascus; Syria & Mideast
From: The Sandman
Date: 09 Dec 24 - 04:21 PM

fair enough

Subject: RE: BS: Fall of Damascus; Syria & Mideast
From: Stilly River Sage
Date: 09 Dec 24 - 05:37 PM

60 million people are needing assistance after recent events. Borders are being opened. Turkey, Israel, and the US are bombing targeted groups within Syria. Like that's going to help Syria?

Israel, US and Turkey launch strikes in Syria to protect interests
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham rebels free prisoners of the former president, Bashar al-Assad, who has fled to Russia

As rebels led by the Islamist Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) freed regime prisoners, including from the notorious Sednaya jail – often referred to as the “human slaughterhouse” – Israel, Turkey and the US carried out military action as Assad’s former backers in Russia and Iran also engaged in efforts to shape a future Syria.

With events moving at an often dizzying pace, the rebels who toppled Assad announced on Telegram that they were issuing a general amnesty for regime military conscripts, as former Syrian prime minister Mohammed al-Jalali told al-Arabiya television he had agreed to hand over power to the rebel “salvation government”.

The US has struck targets associated with Islamic State in central Syria, while Turkey has attacked US-backed Kurdish forces. A deal for the Kurdish forces to withdraw from the northern city of Manbij was reportedly struck on Monday after an advance by Turkish-backed Syrian National Army.

Israel also confirmed that it had sent forces into the buffer zone beyond the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights and into former Syrian military positions on Mount Hermon in what it described as a “temporary measure”.

Subject: RE: BS: Fall of Damascus; Syria & Mideast
From: Donuel
Date: 09 Dec 24 - 07:49 PM

Listen to recent ambassadors who have served in the region. Many are still in the loop. The US wants to keep ISIS prisoners locked up.
Isis could have 50,000 rebels if things go sideways. The rebel leader has denounced Isis beliefs but is expected to be the next Syrian leader. Its easy to denounce your denouncement.
Eventually, an analyst will decide things have gone sideways and the US will do something less than smart. Doing business in Syria from America would have many needful consumers... and blah blah.

Listen to those who see the big picture and not those with nationalistic bias. And listen to robo when he says its too complicated.

Subject: RE: BS: Fall of Damascus; Syria & Mideast
From: Stilly River Sage
Date: 09 Dec 24 - 08:02 PM

There are many moving parts right now and the dust hasn't begun to settle.

Subject: RE: BS: Fall of Damascus; Syria & Mideast
From: DaveRo
Date: 10 Dec 24 - 02:58 AM

Here's Thomas Friedman again. He mentions Mr Trump. But Mr Trump's presidency is 6 weeks off...
Five Quick Takes on Regime Change in Syria

Subject: RE: BS: Fall of Damascus; Syria & Mideast
From: mayomick
Date: 10 Dec 24 - 08:01 AM

with Israel’s army 26 km from Damascus , the normally opiniated Donuel now thinks that the mattter is “ too complicated “ and that it would be better to wait for Robo to unravel any complications arising from the fall of Syria . Waiting for Robo amounts to waiting for "the most moral army in the world "to sort things out as it is currently doing in Gaza and as they did at Sabra and Shatila in 1982

For opponents of the Assad regime like Stilly River Sage   ,there seem to be no regime-change precedents from Iraq or Libya on which to base an understanding of the present or the likely future waiting for what was once Syria. It's all up in the air : now that the craving for regime change has been sated ,the wise thing to do would be wait for the dust to settle and hope for the best.

Subject: RE: BS: Fall of Damascus; Syria & Mideast
From: Stilly River Sage
Date: 10 Dec 24 - 12:06 PM

Mayomick, Are you contributing to the discussion or just throwing typos at what has come so far? As we read or watch our various news sources in coming days we will learn how the population responds to the leadership proposals from those who step forward to take on the job. News media have been invited back and are pouring into Damascus now. Since many years have passed from the first ISIS activity in the region to now it isn't unreasonable to expect some change in opinions and strategy. I have an open mind regarding what comes next from the group that pushed Assad out of the country.

It was a startlingly fast turnover as far as Assad bailing from the country with his family (and bank accounts no doubt intact elsewhere). But that may simply seem that way because we in the West weren't paying attention. Israel/Gaza and the US election and Sudan have sucked a lot of the oxygen from the news cycle. (Though Sudan hasn't gotten the attention it needs.)

Subject: RE: BS: Fall of Damascus; Syria & Mideast
From: Donuel
Date: 10 Dec 24 - 06:15 PM

Assad has had a tenuous grasp of leadership since 2014.

Subject: RE: BS: Fall of Damascus; Syria & Mideast
From: robomatic
Date: 10 Dec 24 - 07:25 PM

I'd just as soon be left out of others' messages and thought an idiot until I can personally remove all doubt.

Talk amongst yourselves. Or Not.

Syria has been an interesting and significant place that to me has seen disproportionate abuse from inside itself and has been co-opted by more powerful neighbors because they have propped up one of the most self-interested and deadly SOBs since Sihanouk, Pol Pot, and whatever bad haircut sits on N.Korea. Time was Syria WAS the more powerful neighbor dominating Lebanon. I recall running into an Israeli in Europe in the 1980s and hearing a prediction of imminent warfare between Syria and Israel, but that did not happen. Israel did cross into Lebanon and engage with Hezbollah at the time, so it was a reasonable surmise, but, big surprise, it's complicated. (Happy?)

The other nearby people getting kicked around beyond all reason are the Yemenis. That has been going on damn near forever. Back in 67 they were being gassed. And as far as I know, this is even more pitiful than otherwise because they don't have any oil.

About fifteen years ago I found myself in a New York City cab driven by someone who by appearance was either an Arab or a Yeshiva student. Turned out to be an Arab, possibly a Syrian. I asked him about the language, which seemed to be all over the Mideast, but differently spoken in each country to the point of being a group of dialects. He was very talkative and planned to save enough money as a taxi driver to move with his wife to the Carolinas and buy a gas station. I found this very interesting because he was an example of how folks can come from ANYWHERE with any background and mix with EVERYONE in an environment which allows them to achieve for themselves in freedom from fear.

This was before the Israeli bombing runs in Lebanon (2006) which I have mentioned in other threads, and before the Syrian rebellion against Assad referred to earlier in this thread.

Subject: RE: BS: Fall of Damascus; Syria & Mideast
From: Big Al Whittle
Date: 11 Dec 24 - 12:42 PM

who's bought the bullets for this lot?
if Assad's in Moscow, is it the US?

Subject: RE: BS: Fall of Damascus; Syria & Mideast
From: Mrrzy
Date: 11 Dec 24 - 02:39 PM

Think on this...

Damascus may have been inhabited, to wit people may have lived where Damascus is now, for ten thousand years.

Will we see it become uninhabitable?

Subject: RE: BS: Fall of Damascus; Syria & Mideast
From: Donuel
Date: 11 Dec 24 - 02:53 PM

That sounds like logic trapped in a sativa hole.

Subject: RE: BS: Fall of Damascus; Syria & Mideast
From: Thompson
Date: 11 Dec 24 - 04:53 PM

Good piece by Friedman, DaveRo, thank you.
I'm with Mrrzy on this. Possibly the original seat of civilisation, and we don't know its likely fate.
It's extraordinary and wonderful to see the centres of torment in Syria emptied, and to see the rejoicing of women at the new freedom. But post-revolutionary societies have a nasty tendency to become brutal and repressive. We can only hope this won't happen in Syria. Let's hope the rebels' ideals forecast a just and kind society.

Subject: RE: BS: Fall of Damascus; Syria & Mideast
From: Big Al Whittle
Date: 12 Dec 24 - 09:50 AM

Then again the Pope might come on telly advertising condoms.

Subject: RE: BS: Fall of Damascus; Syria & Mideast
From: mayomick
Date: 12 Dec 24 - 02:52 PM

Stilly Water Sage
Yes I am contributing to the discussion- ie on the fall of Damascus - I suggest you do the same.once you read or watch your various news sources in coming days   .If you are unable to say anything useful until then a better contribution from a sagacious elf like yourself would be to point out any typos you see from me so that I can explain any point I haven’t made clear. .Alternatively you could post on the pet peeve thread or start another thread with endless discussions about typos if that’s what you prefer but I likely won’t contribute to it : I think it’s better to stay on topic
ie on the fall of Damascus

Subject: RE: BS: Fall of Damascus; Syria & Mideast
From: Big Al Whittle
Date: 12 Dec 24 - 04:36 PM

you know what they believe.

you have seen before what happens when they take over. why do you have expectations there will be a different outcome.

Subject: RE: BS: Fall of Damascus; Syria & Mideast
From: Stilly River Sage
Date: 12 Dec 24 - 05:22 PM

What always happens soon after the defeat of an awful leader is the exposure to the world of how they lived large at the expense of their citizenry. Assad is no exception. Inside Assad's luxury palace, a modernist sanctuary from the Syria he tore apart
NBC News gained exclusive access to the marble atrium and wood-lined library of the deposed president's former-residence.

When NBC News gained access to the squat, modernist palace perched in the mountains above the capital Damascus on Wednesday, it was relatively calm, despite the appearance of having been robbed.

Fighters from the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham militant group, which led the rebel overthrow, stood guard, checking cars in a bid to put a stop to any more thefts from the building which served as Assad’s main residence until he was forced into exile.

Inside, doors opened with a hefty sweep into a cavernous, marble-lined dining room with a table that can comfortably seat three on each end. The chandeliers above appeared to be the finest crystal.

The rest is at the linked article. Click through to read it without supporting if you aren't a paid member. It concludes "Now he is gone the reality of what happened under his rule is being exposed. As the Assad's lived a life of luxury, their regime locked up, tortured and killed thousands of its citizens."

I'm not on my own computer at the moment so can only see some of the Washington Post headlines, but along with a race to find the missing - those imprisoned who might still be alive - is the race to find his chemical weapons: "more than 360 tons of mustard gas that Syria admitted making has never fully been accounted for. Then there's the 5 tons of missing precursors for the nerve agent sarin - enough poison to fill a small swimming pool."

Also, After Toppling Assad, can Syria's rebels rebuild a shattered state?

Subject: RE: BS: Fall of Damascus; Syria & Mideast
From: Big Al Whittle
Date: 13 Dec 24 - 05:51 AM

Typical reaction.

We had all this from Andy Young/David Steel when the rotten corrupt Shah was kicked out of Iran and the saintly Khomeini was installed.

More recently the Taliban had changed. Tell that to the little girls who aren't allowed to go to school any more, oor even out of doors.

Subject: RE: BS: Fall of Damascus; Syria & Mideast
From: robomatic
Date: 15 Dec 24 - 04:20 PM

Just read the Thomas Friedman article reference by DaveRo recently.

Subject: RE: BS: Fall of Damascus; Syria & Mideast
From: robomatic
Date: 15 Dec 24 - 04:49 PM

Just lost my last contribution to this thread due to internet vagueries.

I read the Thomas Friedman article referenced by DaveRo. It was short and sweet. Actually it was short and brutal. And rather inconclusive. I agreed more with the comments that came with the article which observed that Friedman was less consistent with his earlier takes than usual. I like many of the comments and the ones I liked all vigorously disagreed with each other AND Friedman.

For now the average Syrian is feeling liberated and much safer than when the Assad regime was in bloody power. I've been hearing on NPR that many Syrians are returning from abroad, which seems pretty early given the unknonws. No one knows what's down the line because no one or almost no one knows who has the real power.

Meanwhile, Israel is not getting any credit for enabling this sort of liberation by critically weakening the terror hold of Iran and Hezbollah that kept Assad in place. Perhaps it's just as well.

Subject: RE: BS: Fall of Damascus; Syria & Mideast
From: The Sandman
Date: 16 Dec 24 - 02:01 PM

perhaps he made a mistake going to Russia. from his point of view he might have been safer fleeing to an arab country, watch this space

Subject: RE: BS: Fall of Damascus; Syria & Mideast
From: robomatic
Date: 16 Dec 24 - 07:30 PM

Idi Amin 'retired' to Saudi Arabia, but that was before the current 'slice and dice' ruler. Might be a bad rep to carry.

Subject: RE: BS: Fall of Damascus; Syria & Mideast
From: Charley Noble
Date: 16 Dec 24 - 08:47 PM

I wish Syrians well and even though the opposition was able to overthrow the Assad regime in a week they will have a rough time rebuilding their country. However, they really want have any energy left for threatening neighboring countries for decades.

Too bad that Israel doesn't realize that and adds to their war crimes the bombing of another neighboring country. Oh, yes, they are after poisonous gas stockpiles, naval ships, ammunition dumps, and other armaments but where does it end? This goes well beyond the Old Testament: an eye for ab eye, a tooth for a tooth... Gaza is now filled with eyeless, toothless victims.

End of my rant.

Subject: RE: BS: Fall of Damascus; Syria & Mideast
From: robomatic
Date: 17 Dec 24 - 03:26 PM

Israel is doing well by limiting such weapons as additional IED makings and radar emplacements from falling into the hands of Iranian backed terrorists. Remember when all that leftover stuff in Iraq got reused into hundreds of roadbombs?

Meanwhile, there's the confirmation that a 'freed prisoner was actually an Assad agent.' And Assad has already been heard from his Russian relocation.