BS: Wot energy crisis?

Subject: BS: Wot energy crisis?
From: The Stage Manager
Date: 24 Jun 04 - 03:33 PM

My day job involves advising companies about where to buy energy (amongst other things). Over the past few years it's been pretty mundane, but the recent hike in prices, and continuing to rise at a time of the year when they have traditionally dropped,, has prompted some of us to look into the reasons a bit more closely.   

Many of us have been saying for years that uncontrolled consumption of fossil fuels can only lead to impending disaster.    I am beginning to fear that we really are now well and truly on the downward slope.   Companies are now regularly withdrawing pricebooks or quotes, and even refuse to take on any new business for days on end.   We received the following e-mail today and is pretty typical of what is going on these days:

I finally received some XXXXX prices this afternoon, I have not saved them on the system however as they were followed less than an hour later by a call from XXXX advising that they would not be quoting on the rest of the stuff sent over and that all previous prices were now invalid. This has been due to massive market increases throughout the day, YYYYYY Energy also stopped quoting and pulled all existing pricing, I will get an update tomorrow for you.

The gas prices currently being offered are double what they were two years ago. The unit price on a two year contract is higher than a one year. The market is rising rapidly.

You may recall that recently some oil companies have been rapped for overestimating the reserves identified on their accounts, forcing the resignation of directors. Shell's share price dropped like a stone. But do any of us expect a balanced unbiased view from governments?   Consequently we've looked to the academic community for information.   This link is interesting, and helps put more recent events in the Middle East into perspective.
   

Reserves



I'm wasn't aware quite how significant Iraqi reserves are in the overall picture.   On this basis, Saudi Arabia, Iraq and the Emirates between them hold 54% of the world's oil reserves, 66% if you include Kuwait.   Western economies are completely dependent on these reserves, and the oil pumped pout of them.    But when we look at oil production it gets more interesting:



Consumption


The Big Rollover point possibly as early as 2003 and nobody will notice it?    This is scary stuff.   Should we really now expect to see prices double every two to three years from now on as reserves deplete, and we continue to demand the stuff faster than we can pump it out of the ground?

All this is certainly making some of us think a little more seriously about moving towards energy self sufficiency by reducing our consumption., and looking at other sources of heat and light.

I'd be interested to know if anyone else has started down this path?

SM

Subject: RE: BS: Wot energy crisis?
From: Amos
Date: 24 Jun 04 - 03:48 PM

energy self sufficiency by reducing our consumption

The MOST important thing to realize is that there is no shortage of energy in the universe -- in fact there is nothing else but energy in the universe!! But we do have a failure o f technical imagination and technical capability, and we have to keep things going with the technology we can realistically expect to field successfully.

That means wind, sun, marine, hydro, thermal, and possibly satellite-gathered solar energy which is then tight-beamed to transformers Earthside. IF we seriously deployed all those resources I am prettty confident we could accomodate all our existing levels of consumption, and allow for the expansion that population growth and industrialization of third world countries will bring about.

I will make an even wilder guess, sticking my neck out, and argue the possibility that we might have acheived this level of deployment in its entirety with the funds currently poured into Iraq. Of course, such a path of action would require really intelligent management...

A

(As a footnote, those are seat of the pants orde-rof-magnitude guesses (SWAGS) not precision cvalculations.)

Subject: RE: BS: Wot energy crisis?
From: Rapparee
Date: 24 Jun 04 - 04:38 PM

Arthur C. Clarke predicted that about this time humanity would be benefiting from a truly huge energy source -- perhaps fusion. However, politicos killed off the Princeton toquemak (as far as I know) and it hasn't been revived.

Subject: RE: BS: Wot energy crisis?
From: GUEST,The Stage Manager
Date: 25 Jun 04 - 04:25 AM

So no problem then?

SM